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Unread 16 Jul 2005, 20:18   #1
Deffeh
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[Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

How are we doing my dearies.

Dont you always get to the end of a football season, hear about the money someone won and go "damn, i wish id taken that"? Of course you do, if you're reading this thread your a gambler. So maybe a lot of it is Gambler's hindsight of how "that was always worth a cheeky pound" or "that was a dead cert, why didnt i take it?".

But you dont. The major factor for me tends to be "i cant be assed investing for that long, waiting for a non guarenteed return". So to counter this, i intend to make it worth my while. Im going to tirelessly troll bookies, and create a huge accumulator of what i consider "worthwhile near certainties". Im probably not going to take the bet as an accumulator, rather, im going to take fourfolds or fivefolds to guarentee a return, but for arguments sake, im going to do the sums here as if it was a pure £10 accumulator.

Anyway, im going to list odds ive seen and like. This whole experiment will work best if you lot give me your opinions, and look for similar "catches". Here goes.




5/6 Stephen Gerrard to score more Premiership Goals than Paul Scholes this season
8/13 Frank Lampard to score more Premiership Goals than Tim Cahill this season
4/5 Chelsea to win the Premiership this Season
4/6 Liverpool to be top Premiership side (If you exclude Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea)
8/11 Aston Villa to finish higher than Birmingham this season


Thats just a start. All the above prices are from Blue Square ( www.bluesq.com ). Unless its an exceptional price, its best if everyone uses Blue Square so that compiling the accy is possible.

A £10 accumulator on the above would return : £153.46. Convinced?
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Unread 16 Jul 2005, 20:54   #2
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

6/5 Rooney to score more goals than Van Nistleroy (Vans fitness is dodgy and hes been out a while)
evens Hasselbaink to score more than Yakabu (yak doesnt score that many if you take away his penalties
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Unread 16 Jul 2005, 20:56   #3
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

5/4 Phil taylor to not lose a televised match before the World championships (darts)
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Unread 16 Jul 2005, 21:05   #4
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Forest
6/5 Rooney to score more goals than Van Nistleroy (Vans fitness is dodgy and hes been out a while)
evens Hasselbaink to score more than Yakabu (yak doesnt score that many if you take away his penalties
yes but both of these are 'vaguely probables' rather than 'near certs'
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Unread 16 Jul 2005, 21:13   #5
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

the yakabu one i see as a near cert.
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Unread 16 Jul 2005, 21:15   #6
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Rovers to be bottom of the fair play league.
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Unread 16 Jul 2005, 23:40   #7
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JC
Rovers to be bottom of the fair play league.
hehe i like you

edit: oh and henry player of the year.
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Unread 17 Jul 2005, 11:31   #8
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Quote:
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hehe i like you
Spread the love <3
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 15:52   #9
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

An Update to this thread. Im going to place the bet tonight, but just adding some final adjustments to it.

It currently stands at :

10/11 Aston Villa to Finish ahead of Birmingham & West Brom
5/6 Gerrard to score more Premiership goals than Scholes
4/7 Lampard to score more premiership goals than Cahill
4/5 John Terry to be in the PFA team of the year
4/6 Frank Lampard to be in the PFA team of the year
5/6 Steven Gerrard to be in the PFA team of the year
4/6 Chelsea to win the Premiership
4/6 Liverpool to finish top if Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea were removed from the Prem.

£10 returns £840.28

Im looking for one or two more odds to top up the accy just to make it even sweeter, though i wont compromise it.

Anyway, final thoughts? Im placing it at about midnight tonight, give me some final time to look for some more good odds, mull it over.
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Last edited by Deffeh; 3 Aug 2005 at 15:58. Reason: Changed aston villa's odds slightly
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 16:05   #10
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

they all look very juicy bets idd, ill have a look when I get back from work and see what I can find
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 16:37   #11
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

deffeh i know nothing about betting, are those odds 'on' or 'against' ie what do those numbers actually mean?

wouldn't it be sensible to spend a bit more and hedge your bets? ie take those scenarios and place £5 bets with various combinations instead of one big one (say 5-6), that way even if one or two fail you'll still make back your money with some profit.

may be talking utter bollocks.
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 17:12   #12
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

I've always liked accumulators, but it's really REALLY annoying when you get say 9 out of 10 correct but the last "dead cert" match ends up a draw or something and you lose.

Although I've never done accumulators on season long bets like this before - could be interesting. And £800 sounds tasty....
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 17:14   #13
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
How are we doing my dearies.
I'm great.
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 17:24   #14
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

6/4 for example, means that for every £4 you stake, you will win £6 back. So for example, staking £20 at odds of 6/4 means you will win back £30 plus your £20 stake - therefore, £50.

Just look at it as a regular fraction : a/b (s = stake)

( a * s/ b ) + s = winnings

When it comes to accumulators like im doing there, what you do is a ridiculously long and complicated sum, multiplying the different fractions. So you do

s * ((a1/b1)+1) * ((a2/b2)+1) * ((a3/b3)+1) = winnings.

Thats why accumulators give such great odds. Multiple outcomes = better odds. All the outcomes i posted above have rubbish odds, but combined they are ****ing ace. Take chelsea winning the league for example. £10 on them would return about £16 in total.


As for hedging my bets, you are probably right. What i could do is take fivefolds or sixfolds from my list. The only problem is, with 8 outcomes the odds are at a lovely 83/1 (roughly), for sixfolds they drop to about 30/1. Even if i spent £10 on each sixfold, if only one came in id make £300 profit - but when you take away the amount of sixfolds id have to make, the profit wouldnt be worth it. Also the overall stake is too high if i do it that way. Im only in this for a smallish stake, low chance, high reward sort of deal.


Ive just hit a stumbling block though. Blue Square is broken, also my PFA team of the year bets dont seem to be allowed as part of multiples.
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 19:41   #15
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

deffeh apparently 'each way' means that you either get the win and the placing or just the placing (if the team doesn't win)

brazil is given as 4/1 outright - win or each way 1/2 1,2

isn't it a fairly safe bet that they'll at least get the runners up place?
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 20:01   #16
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

If you're talking about the world cup, I wouldn't call it a "safe bet" that brazil will reach the final....Remember France in world cup 2002?
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 21:39   #17
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

not sold on the PFA. Terry perhaps, but between gerrard and lampard you have no room for someone else being second best in central midfield.
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 22:29   #18
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Its a world cup season. The media will be bigging up the Engerland heroes, and this will be in all the voting players minds.
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 22:46   #19
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

I would offer Forest to be promoted from League 1...
Should be an almost dead cert...
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Unread 3 Aug 2005, 23:42   #20
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Bluesq offer 2/1 on S****horpe relegated from League 1. I'd say that's a dead cert, given the squad is even weaker than last season.
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Unread 6 Aug 2005, 14:34   #21
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

I think Villa will let you down.
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 21:44   #22
Belgarath The Sorcerer
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

£10 to the bookies Deffeh.

But then I'm wearing a towel, so what do I know.
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 22:05   #23
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

I betted £10 on Chelsea to beat Arsenal 2-1 with Drogba to score first.

William Hill said that if I predict Lampard to score first, I'd get £200. With Drogba, £400.

I'm £400 richer today. First time I won something in life.. well 2nd actually.
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 22:18   #24
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

drinks on you
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 22:23   #25
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Coming to London?
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 22:33   #26
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

fancy putting me up?
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 22:36   #27
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
fancy putting me up?
Tempting.
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 23:23   #28
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

gw Blasto

i reckoned it would be 3-0

****ing shite game though. Arsenal in particular should be relegated immediately for crapulence
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 23:25   #29
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

I thought they played well in the second half.

*shrug*
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 23:32   #30
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

what?

Their goal came as a result of a mistake. I dont care how much possession / how many shots they had, they didnt create a single chance.

Also, Lauren, Lehmann, Pires, Fabregas, Flamini, Toure are shit, Bergkamp is too old.
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 23:36   #31
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
Fabregas
A lot of critics would disagree with you y'know...
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 23:37   #32
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Yeah but they think Fabregas and Joe Cole are passable players so i dont care what they think

**** me joe cole was typically awful today
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Unread 7 Aug 2005, 23:39   #33
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
**** me joe cole was typically awful today
I think Joe Cole had a quiet day.

But he's still the key player for England to win the World Cup 2006.... or so it says in every version of Championship Manager 2001/2002 +, and Football Manager 2005.
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Unread 8 Aug 2005, 20:22   #34
Kurashima
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.

Deffeh , double it up with a set of 25p trebles on any of the bets. You should do well with 6/8 or 7/8. A full 8/8 will rack up a very nice pile if they allow that type of bet. (Ladbrokes dont, neither do Hills )
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