Round 47 Predictions

[Blue_Esper]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

It all goes through cycles on this thread...

main points are:

1) Ultores is better than PA than the rest
2) CT and the rest need to change how they play to compete with Ultores


I dont think that changing how you defend would have an adverse affect on CT in the long run, maybe a round or 2 where they drift down to 5th/6th in the rankings but its definately something they need to do if they are to acheive a credible win, the day of the DC is dead in PA, people need to take responsibility for their own planets. I would say their are too many people taking a free ride in all the allainces expect Ultores because of how they setup their defence.

DC's work in alliances like CT where the majority of their members are from EU so aren't online to dc themselves. but when they get heavy incs the workload becomes too much for the DC's and they get burnt out, the only thing that needs to change is that when theres heavy incs, ground fleets, dc yourself and gal mates

[Wouter]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

Ultores' average size was never 300. They passed 400 on the fourth day of the round, 500 on the seventh, and had an average size of almost 700 when you were first pushed into the red. And while we're speaking of losing roids, you only had a net roid loss 13 days this round. Nothing to be sneezed at, to be sure, but not even close to 700 ticks of incs.

Also, what exactly is wrong with teaming up on a stronger opponent?

It was 700 ticks tho.
No ally would go into red when you 1 fleet attack and 2 fleet def on an average of 700. If anyone does manage that...
Roughly from tick 260-960 we got blocked against my ND/CT/HvN. So all our most experienced players got incs 80% of the time regardless of how many roids. With experienced i mean our fort gals.

Lets now say I am in an Ult fort and the average size in MY galaxy is 650(between the Ult planets), now CT hits my gal on monday and caps 1 wave, wednesday CT comes again and caps 0 waves, friday CT comes yet again and caps 0 waves. Who would want to attack that roid average knowing the chances of landing are so bad, how many would just not bother to claim on sunday?

[Kaiba]

Originally Posted by Blue_Esper

DC's work in alliances like CT where the majority of their members are from EU so aren't online to dc themselves. but when they get heavy incs the workload becomes too much for the DC's and they get burnt out, the only thing that needs to change is that when theres heavy incs, ground fleets, dc yourself and gal mates

They obviously dont work or CT wouldnt have lost 15% of their roids 4 nights in a row. Your putting your planet in the hands of few and thats not the best way to play PA. All these alliances that have won PA in the last 15 rounds with the expection of ND who got no incs and the round where CT were gifted the win by Apprime work with a 'DC your own planet' mantra.

If DCing was the way forward then then FaNG would have won when Irvine was DCing but no they crumbled, CT would have won this round with their 4 DC's but no..., you need to look after yourself and not play lazy PA thats CT and everyone elses main problem, sort that and you might have some contenders to Ultores. Until then they will keep winning.

PS. With the 60 tags with 60 counting being implemented for Rd48 i would imagine Ultores win will be even greater, now CT and others cant hide crashes in the non counting planets....

[Mzyxptlk]

Originally Posted by Wouter

It was 700 ticks tho.
No ally would go into red when you 1 fleet attack and 2 fleet def on an average of 700. If anyone does manage that...
Roughly from tick 260-960 we got blocked against my ND/CT/HvN. So all our most experienced players got incs 80% of the time regardless of how many roids. With experienced i mean our fort gals.

Lets now say I am in an Ult fort and the average size in MY galaxy is 650(between the Ult planets), now CT hits my gal on monday and caps 1 wave, wednesday CT comes again and caps 0 waves, friday CT comes yet again and caps 0 waves. Who would want to attack that roid average knowing the chances of landing are so bad, how many would just not bother to claim on sunday?

Even if CT & co attacked another Ultores gal on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, if they rarely or never actually cap anything, I would not describe that as getting targetted.

Reading back on the thread, no one has used the exact words "getting targeted", so maybe I'm just reading more into this than I should. However, I maintain that if you say you had incomings for 700 ticks, and I see only 13 nights with roidloss, half of which at -2% or less, then those incs could not have amounted to much. And as I said before, on a night-by-night basis, they can certainly not reasonably be compared to the mass incomings both HAveN and CT got during the 4-6 days they were each targeted.

[RexDrax]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Another factor the lack of Ultores roid loss is that they oppurtunistically day raid on n00bs to regain roids rather than just reinting losses, something that no other alliance bar Apprime does in PA

I have ended up in Ult galaxies in the past and this round I played an inactive scan/support/random planet. I understand that the strong will hit the weak and take their easy roids its part of the game. But man, playing as a crappy planet I would get some huge waves of incomings sometimes and I had a max of 300 roids only. It was kinda funny the amount of waves I would get at times.

Props to Ult for always getting some roids and other alliances that use a similar tactic. But this is part of the problem of why PA is just not growing. If a new player comes across the game they wont get much of a chance to learn it before being exiled and/or roided to the ground by more experienced players.

[Shev]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

Reading back on the thread, no one has used the exact words "getting targeted", so maybe I'm just reading more into this than I should. However, I maintain that if you say you had incomings for 700 ticks, and I see only 13 nights with roidloss, half of which at -2% or less, then those incs could not have amounted to much. And as I said before, on a night-by-night basis, they can certainly not reasonably be compared to the mass incomings both HAveN and CT got during the 4-6 days they were each targeted.

They definitely weren't sustained to that extent over the whole period. By the time Haven dropped out of hitting us we were comfortably covering 90% and still able to send pretty regular attack fleets. The first couple of weeks were pretty severe, but it's hard to motivate members to keep attacking the same gals over and over again, even if you do rotate them fairly well as ND/CT/Haven did.

[Wouter]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

Even if CT & co attacked another Ultores gal on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, if they rarely or never actually cap anything, I would not describe that as getting targetted.

Reading back on the thread, no one has used the exact words "getting targeted", so maybe I'm just reading more into this than I should. However, I maintain that if you say you had incomings for 700 ticks, and I see only 13 nights with roidloss, half of which at -2% or less, then those incs could not have amounted to much. And as I said before, on a night-by-night basis, they can certainly not reasonably be compared to the mass incomings both HAveN and CT got during the 4-6 days they were each targeted.

We had an average of like 160 fleets a night over 700 ticks.. Ofc some nights are above and some nights are below this number. The thing remains tho, all Ult forts got experience in their favor, they know how to deal with incoming.
Due to the stats the deffleets in those gals got bigger, zik got buccs and pirates, ters got drakes and pegs, xans got revs and spectre. Now cause we had hardly any roids the value difference wasnt too much of a problem, cause buccs stopped any co and revs stopped most of the fi, while drakes stopped the few bs & spectres the cr incs. Regardless of how big a teamup, 1 fleet could stop it unless it was max ter fi.

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Wouter

We had an average of like 160 fleets a night over 700 ticks.. Ofc some nights are above and some nights are below this number. The thing remains tho, all Ult forts got experience in their favor, they know how to deal with incoming.
Due to the stats the deffleets in those gals got bigger, zik got buccs and pirates, ters got drakes and pegs, xans got revs and spectre. Now cause we had hardly any roids the value difference wasnt too much of a problem, cause buccs stopped any co and revs stopped most of the fi, while drakes stopped the few bs & spectres the cr incs. Regardless of how big a teamup, 1 fleet could stop it unless it was max ter fi.

This is one of the better posts on here and sums it up pretty well.

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Wouter

We had an average of like 160 fleets a night over 700 ticks.. Ofc some nights are above and some nights are below this number. The .

Incidentally, and I don't have exact figures cause my access was removed, but CT had 60-100 'random' fleet inc per night up until we got hit hard and 350+ when we did get hit hard.

I am interested in seeing the incoming stats from appo

[Shev]

They are online - http://beta.planetarion.com/history/?id=6&round=47

[Wouter]

Originally Posted by Forest

Incidentally, and I don't have exact figures cause my access was removed, but CT had 60-100 'random' fleet inc per night up until we got hit hard and 350+ when we did get hit hard.

I am interested in seeing the incoming stats from appo

I know that to be a blatent lie btw, 60-100 'random' fleet per night..

1. CT would have to be focused to get that from the allies that werent involved in the block and you werent.
2. CT should have alot more total incs judging that in the last 7 days they got about 2k incs, so CT had an average of 47 incs a night, lets say the block targetted CT a little before, 5 nights giving 1k incs.. 26 fleets a night.

PS: Ult had usually 200 fleets a night for the first half of those 700 ticks. I know its common to make believe stories or whatever, but dont try and diss honestly.

[Zaejii]

I made a comment at some point during the round when politics shifted, and I never bothered to do enough scans to really see for myself, but..

With the ship stats (Wouter mentioned some specific useful def ships earlier) in mind, would it be safe to say that Haven and CT had more attack based fleets that were not /great/ in defense, while Ultores had great defensive fleets and specialized attack fleets?

Just a thought..

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Wouter

I know that to be a blatent lie btw, 60-100 'random' fleet per night..

By random, I mean incoming on random gal raids, as my hc kept claiming they were. That is why I put the word random in ' '.

Originally Posted by Wouter

1. CT would have to be focused to get that from the allies that werent involved in the block and you werent.

xVx/dwfkt put about 20 fleets each minimum on us a night. A couple of other smaller alliances too. Maybe ct hc could provide numbers?

Originally Posted by Wouter

2. CT should have alot more total incs judging that in the last 7 days they got about 2k incs, so CT had an average of 47 incs a night, lets say the block targetted CT a little before, 5 nights giving 1k incs.. 26 fleets a night.

Last two nights I think we didn't get so much. Sandmans isn't showing but I think it was 5 days of 300+.

Originally Posted by Wouter

PS: Ult had usually 200 fleets a night for the first half of those 700 ticks. I know its common to make believe stories or whatever, but dont try and diss honestly.

I was only going on that based on figures you posted.

For the record, I am not whining or knocking ult in the slightest. CT lost because we crashed and didn't do the simple things right.

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Zaejii

With the ship stats (Wouter mentioned some specific useful def ships earlier) in mind, would it be safe to say that Haven and CT had more attack based fleets that were not /great/ in defense, while Ultores had great defensive fleets and specialized attack fleets?

Just a thought..

This would be absolutely correct to be fair.

As has been pointed out, we had a lot of beetles, but ult had buccs and 1 bucc fleet can stop 6 co fleets easily.

Factor in that certain CT twats took a lot of def against our enemies and then defended ult ingal and we really sucked.

[Mzyxptlk]

Originally Posted by Wouter

I know that to be a blatent lie btw, 60-100 'random' fleet per night..

1. CT would have to be focused to get that from the allies that werent involved in the block and you werent.
2. CT should have alot more total incs judging that in the last 7 days they got about 2k incs, so CT had an average of 47 incs a night, lets say the block targetted CT a little before, 5 nights giving 1k incs.. 26 fleets a night.

PS: Ult had usually 200 fleets a night for the first half of those 700 ticks. I know its common to make believe stories or whatever, but dont try and diss honestly.

Your numbers for CT are a little off, I think. CT was targeted, but only for 4 nights at, say, 350 fleets a night. Subtracting that from their total incs (4100), gives ~2600 incs for the rest of the round, which puts them at 59 incs a night. Clearly 100 was an exaggeration, but 60 seems a very reasonable estimate to me.

In fact, 60 incs a night for an alliance of 77 players seems to be the norm. BABYLONS, HR, PwnEd, ToF, ND and xVx all had a similar average. BABYLONS and xVx a bit less, pWNEd and ND a bit more. Hell, even TEAM_NGO, with their 7 members, would have had 2600 incs if they'd had 77. The only reason CT, hAVeN and Ultores had more incs than that is because they were heavily targetted.

[Kaiba]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

Your numbers for CT are a little off, I think. CT was targeted, but only for 4 nights at, say, 350 fleets a night. Subtracting that from their total incs (4100), gives ~2600 incs for the rest of the round, which puts them at 59 incs a night. Clearly 100 was an exaggeration, but 60 seems a very reasonable estimate to me.

Yeah for an alliance of 77 people, 60 a night seems about right. Most raids will put 8-10 fleets on a planet. So thats 6-7 CT planets a night getting incs. Or 3-4 'random' gal raids.

BUT... if an alliance of 77 people cannot 90%+ cover 60 incommings a night then you have major issues. Infact you should be covering 100% of those incommings with your DCing system as every call should be covered in alliance without the swamping that normally beats assigned DC's.

[Mzyxptlk]

They did. CT was in the red on only 2 nights prior to the mass incs.

[Kaiba]

Doesnt mean your covering 90%+ just means your out attacking your losses normally, CT are quite easy to land on any time

[Forest]

Not so easy. We were covering a LOT, I should know, having run plenty of the defences and using 1 def fleet to cover 5 att fleets.

Pull your neck in a bit kai

[JonnyBGood]

Originally Posted by Shev

They are online - http://beta.planetarion.com/history/?id=6&round=47

For the record I've asked Appoco to add a "launched fleets" column to the alliance stats, which should be a reasonable approximation for alliance activity, and we should get this at some point this round. So in case I forget to remind appoco in a couple of weeks someone else do so!