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Unread 4 Mar 2003, 21:01   #1
LEXX
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Cool Roid Initation

which 3 roids to do 1st?

maybe 0 metal,1 crystal , and 2 eonium

this way u can scan and get more roids to start with.


or 0 met,2 cry,1 eonium is a popular choice

especially for the research


the only reason im doing 0 met is you earn quite a lot from your own planet.

or 1 of each


or even initate 2 roids and have enoough rescources for something else.

maybe it dosnt matter any experts out there please reply.
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Unread 4 Mar 2003, 21:17   #2
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3 Crystal - if you are feeling lucky(did it work well last round?)

2 Crystal 1 Eonium - if you want to go the safe way(gave me an ok start last round even if i missed a few ticks res/con)

1 Crystal and 2 Eonium, Will give you a slow start because you cant afford scans early on. sure you have alot of E lying around, but it wont give you any roids
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Unread 4 Mar 2003, 21:20   #3
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im no expert by any means, but i think inting 3c or 2c/1e is by far the most popular, so that u can get those much needed amps, for ur roid scans.

Initing M roids is just plain stupid imo, due to the fact that within 8 ticks u have the mining centre, and so no point in wasting ur roids on not initing c/e.
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Unread 4 Mar 2003, 21:28   #4
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most big planets last round went 3c, but if ur rly unlucky(i am) u kinda fk up and get behing.


last round i went 2c 1 e, worked fine and i was top 20 after 100ish ticks
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Unread 4 Mar 2003, 22:36   #5
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what everyone seem to be forgetting is that Spinner changed the roidscan formula from last round.... so its alot harder to get roids now.....
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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 00:06   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sun Pin
what everyone seem to be forgetting is that Spinner changed the roidscan formula from last round.... so its alot harder to get roids now.....
Actually the new formula lowered scan cost pr roid with about 1k resources .

Exploding amps increased with 2k resources to offset that though.

Code:
Old formula:

   0.15 * (1 + amps/roids)

   Ultimate ratio:
   1,6'ish

   Minimum cost:
   8330'ish


New Formula:
   
   0,3 * (amps / roids)

   Ultimate ratio:
   1,8'ish

   Minimum cost:
   7330'ish
However.. With the new scanning; amps explode. So this means putting a static +2000 for each scan .. so minimum cost is 9330


Code:
COST TABLE (WITHOUT 'SPLODING AMPS!)
Ratio:   New cost          Old cost
0.1	66866.66667	12321.21212
0.2	33733.33333	11511.11111
0.3	22822.22222	10856.41026
0.4	17466.66667	10323.80952
0.5	14333.33333	9888.888889
0.6	12311.11111	9533.333333
0.7	10923.80952	9243.137255
0.8	9933.333333	9007.407407
0.9	9207.407407	8817.54386
1	8666.666667	8666.666667
1.1	8260.606061	8549.206349
1.2	7955.555556	8460.606061
1.3	7728.205128	8397.101449
1.4	7561.904762	8355.555556
1.5	7444.444444	8333.333333
1.6	7366.666667	8328.205128
1.7	7321.568627	8338.271605
1.8	7303.703704	8361.904762
1.9	7308.77193	8397.701149
2	7333.333333	8444.444444
2.1	7374.603175	8501.075269
2.2	7430.30303	8566.666667
2.3	7498.550725	8640.40404
2.4	7577.777778	8721.568627
2.5	7666.666667	8809.52381
2.6	7764.102564	8903.703704
2.7	7869.135802	9003.603604
2.8	7980.952381	9108.77193
2.9	8098.850575	9218.803419
3	8222.222222	9333.333333
3.1	8350.537634	9452.03252
3.2	8483.333333	9574.603175
3.3	8620.20202	9700.775194
-           100%               .....

Formulaes used:
X * 2000 + 2000 / (X * 0.3)
2000 * X + 2000 / ((X+1)*0.15)
So with the 'new' formula:
Low scan amp strategies are really really bad, while high amp scans are alot better. The 'ultimate' strategy is still having a little better than 50% chance on each scan .. So in my eyes scanning at a 70%-80% chance is probably the best off both worlds..

Short Example on getting the different numbers:
70% chance means 2,3 amps pr roid
which means building 3,3 (2,3+1) amps pr 1,4 (1/0,7) scans built
which means having a 6,1 (3,3+1,4*2) C : 3,3 (3,3) E -> 2C:1E resource income
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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 02:41   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by hyfe
Short Example on getting the different numbers:
70% chance means 2,3 amps pr roid
which means building 3,3 (2,3+1) amps pr 1,4 (1/0,7) scans built
which means having a 6,1 (3,3+1,4*2) C : 3,3 (3,3) E -> 2C:1E resource income
Looking at the avove example people are led to believe that 2c 1e is the best start. That's all well and good if you only use your income for amps and scans. However you are missing 2 things...

1. Base planetary income would turn the 2:1 into 3:2 causeing a massive E overload.

2. most people use quite a large part of their C to start research and construction, causing even more E overload.

Take those 2 points into consideration and you'll find that 3c is the only viable option.


Quote:
Originally posted by Aknot
3 Crystal - if you are feeling lucky(did it work well last round?)

2 Crystal 1 Eonium - if you want to go the safe way(gave me an ok start last round even if i missed a few ticks res/con)

1 Crystal and 2 Eonium, Will give you a slow start because you cant afford scans early on. sure you have alot of E lying around, but it wont give you any roids
The way with more amps and less scans isn't the safer way. It's the way with more scans and less amps that is the safer way as that provides more average results, less susceptible to the freaky random deviation of a shorter series.
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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 05:50   #8
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I wasn't missing them Chax, I just wasn't talking about the start; i was talking generally when scanning.. So how to aquire those ratios was a whole different ballpark (and i did say resource incomine, not roid income). so no disagreement from me with what you said..
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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 09:58   #9
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I tried to od some tick plans with either 2c/1e and with 3c but the difference is marginal. 3C gives a good first scan but then slows a bit because you lack E. 2c/1e gives a poor first scan cause you are short of C and therefore cannot use all your available resources but gets a good pick up in speed when C mine completes a few ticks later.

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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 12:03   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by hAl
I tried to od some tick plans with either 2c/1e and with 3c but the difference is marginal. 3C gives a good first scan but then slows a bit because you lack E. 2c/1e gives a poor first scan cause you are short of C and therefore cannot use all your available resources but gets a good pick up in speed when C mine completes a few ticks later.

hAl
In the same way that the 3c start with it's extra early roids picks up even more in speed when those extra roids from the first scanbatch are made into eonium?
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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 15:50   #11
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Quote:
Originally posted by Chax
In the same way that the 3c start with it's extra early roids picks up even more in speed when those extra roids from the first scanbatch are made into eonium?
Nope. The C mine is finished several ticks even before those roids are scanned for and initiated. After ordering scans you have about 4 ticks of producing 1kC and 250 E and two ticks of producing 2,5k C and 250 E (totalling 7k C and 1,5 E) so you have a severe E shortage which even when inititating 4 E roids on first scan will last several ticks still. So if you go for 3C roids there is a gap after the first order of scans that is bigger than with 2c/1e and you will have less scans and less ampsratio for that second scans well.

If you go for 2C/1E you can continue scanning during this period and keep a good ratio. The extra C of the C mine can be used immediatly as here is still left over eonium in your resources.

3C might be marginally better. At least I mostly came up with 1 or 2 roids more but luck seemed so much of a factor that this is far more crucial than the choice between 3C and 2C/1E.

Most likely the top of the uni will be mostly three C players but many of those 3C players will also be at the bottom of the scanner pile as this strategy seem to have a greater variation in outcome than 2C/1E.

hAl
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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 16:28   #12
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last round I went 3c and did pretty well, however I know black eyed boy went 2c 1e and did a lot better than me, but maybe he was just a lucky whore.
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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 20:26   #13
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Quote:
Originally posted by hAl
Most likely the top of the uni will be mostly three C players but many of those 3C players will also be at the bottom of the scanner pile as this strategy seem to have a greater variation in outcome than 2C/1E.

hAl
More scans less amps surely has a lower variation than more amps less scans
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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 20:44   #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by Chax
More scans less amps surely has a lower variation than more amps less scans
Why would you think that.
For example with 3 roids, 20 amps and 5 scans the variation is extrmely low cause the first two scans are virtualy guaranteed due to the nature of the formula. That means the outcome is virtually certain 4 or 5 with a very small chance of it being 3 and extremly remote for less.

For example with 3 roids, 10 amps and 10 scans the outcome is much more varied. 4,5 or 6 are probably the most likely outcome but 2,3,7and 8 are still options that wil happen regularly.

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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 21:10   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by Chax
More scans less amps surely has a lower variation than more amps less scans
You're right. The chance of the total disastrous no roid-outcome is however slightly higher when doing the more scans alternative. So it all depends on what definition of 'risky' you use
Code:
Roids:     5       5
Amps:      15      10
Scans:     10      15
Varians:   0,019   0,018
0 roids%:  0,004   0,001
and yes: god bless excel (or any other politically correct GNU'ish spreadsheet)
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Unread 5 Mar 2003, 21:18   #16
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Ahh.. hAl:
100% chance will of course always be the least risky, but it is also a little costier.

I think his point however is that 50% chance is better than 90% chance. This is because of two reasons:
1.The short term un-randomness often experienced with PA-'random' number generater. (which may be an urban myth). You are less suspectible to this when doing larger numbers
2. The variance actually *is* lower when comparing the two. The high scan alternative is both higher on the central probabilities, and higher on the extremes.
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 09:13   #17
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Quote:
Originally posted by hyfe
You're right. The chance of the total disastrous no roid-outcome is however slightly higher when doing the more scans alternative. So it all depends on what definition of 'risky' you use
Code:
Roids:     5       5
Amps:      15      10
Scans:     10      15
Varians:   0,019   0,018
0 roids%:  0,004   0,001
and yes: god bless excel (or any other politically correct GNU'ish spreadsheet)
That is poor statistics as with 15 scans and only 10 amps you can never get over 10 roids. So your last 5 scans are wasted. That makes for lousy variance indeed. You should only compare combinations where the number of amps at least match the number of scans.

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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 09:13   #18
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Quote:
Originally posted by hAl
Why would you think that.
For example with 3 roids, 20 amps and 5 scans the variation is extrmely low cause the first two scans are virtualy guaranteed due to the nature of the formula. That means the outcome is virtually certain 4 or 5 with a very small chance of it being 3 and extremly remote for less.

For example with 3 roids, 10 amps and 10 scans the outcome is much more varied. 4,5 or 6 are probably the most likely outcome but 2,3,7and 8 are still options that wil happen regularly.

hAl
Yeah, have to agree with that. The last 2 rounds I got 2 roids from something like 10 amps and 10 scans with 3 roids.......
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 09:40   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by hAl
That is poor statistics as with 15 scans and only 10 amps you can never get over 10 roids. So your last 5 scans are wasted. That makes for lousy variance indeed. You should only compare combinations where the number of amps at least match the number of scans.

hAl
It's possible to get roids even if you run out of amps, quite contrary to what is supposed to happen.

To calculate variance for a many scans low amp series you have to have LOW amps, if you have as many amps as scans they aren't LOW!
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 10:29   #20
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Quote:
Originally posted by Chax
It's possible to get roids even if you run out of amps, quite contrary to what is supposed to happen.

To calculate variance for a many scans low amp series you have to have LOW amps, if you have as many amps as scans they aren't LOW!
There is supposed to be a chance of success no matter what ratio you have. This however might well be 1/100 or even 1/1000 as it is not specidfied. As this is not specified I cannot imagine hyfe having his variance stats based on that. Also that value is so low that scanning against those odd is not likely to happen by anybody. So an extremely luck scanner who get 10 out of 10 which is remotely possible (very unlikely) would never continue doing another 5 scans against unknown but extreme odds.

Amps equal to scans is very minimal and VERY LOW indeed. I think nobody does scan with 0 amps. So doing more scans than you have amps is unrealistic action. Don't think many tick plans contain such scanning actions with more scans than amps and certainly not doing 15 scans with 10 amps.

Myby hyfe should try a combination of
3 roids, 5 scan, 15 amps
3 roids, 10 scans 10 amps
I think then the second option will have a lot more variance than the first and much more extreme outcome. First option will get less roids no doubt but will keep a decent amps ratio so scanning can almost directly be continued.

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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 10:43   #21
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Quote:
Originally posted by hAl
Amps equal to scans is very minimal and VERY LOW indeed. I think nobody does scan with 0 amps. So doing more scans than you have amps is unrealistic action. Don't think many tick plans contain such scanning actions with more scans than amps and certainly not doing 15 scans with 10 amps.
Not at all. It's very realistic to have 15 scans and 10 amps and starting to scan. If for some reason one happens to get 10 roids from the first 10 one stops. Naturally the odds of getting 10 are so low that one might as well fire off the 15 all at once.

And if I got 10 roids from such a scenario, I'd be so happy that the slight chance that I might have been able to save a scan or 2 if I did em 1 by 1 won't haunt me much.
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 11:47   #22
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Quote:
Originally posted by Chax
Not at all. It's very realistic to have 15 scans and 10 amps and starting to scan. If for some reason one happens to get 10 roids from the first 10 one stops. Naturally the odds of getting 10 are so low that one might as well fire off the 15 all at once.

And if I got 10 roids from such a scenario, I'd be so happy that the slight chance that I might have been able to save a scan or 2 if I did em 1 by 1 won't haunt me much.
First hyfy already started with 5 roids so that is not at start of scanning. Secondly it would still be extremly stupid to do 15 scans with 10 amps as an initial scan. Completly unrealistic figures unlike the ones I suggested.

You might think that with 15/10 the chances of 10 roids from first ten scans are small (true) but even when you get 7 our of first 7 which is still a real possibility (also small but possible) then it is much better option to save your 8 left over scans untill you bought new amps. So with 15/10 combination the succesrate determines your scanning strategy and that means variance statistics are of little use on such numbers. The more succesfull you are the less scans you will actually perform.

Aslo I found my examples much more realistic as the 5 roids 15 scans and ten amps example is almost certain not to be in any tick plan.

hAl
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 13:35   #23
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Quote:
Originally posted by hAl
That is poor statistics as with 15 scans and only 10 amps you can never get over 10 roids. So your last 5 scans are wasted. That makes for lousy variance indeed. You should only compare combinations where the number of amps at least match the number of scans.

hAl
heh. you're complaining because i choose and example that might get a lower variance on the high amps/low scan strategy?

Quote:
Originally posted by hAl
First hyfy already started with 5 roids so that is not at start of scanning. Secondly it would still be extremly stupid to do 15 scans with 10 amps as an initial scan. Completly unrealistic figures unlike the ones I suggested.
hAlA:
Your example use 100% chance for a while. As long as you get 100% chance the variance and risk wll be lower. In that aspect you are completly correct. This is fairly intuitive.

However, whats not intuitive, and which i demonstrated (and picked an example to show): scanning around 90% chance actually has a larger spread than around 50% chance. This is espicially important when considering PA 'random'-number generator rumours.

So; as far as I can see; both extremes are better than the middle ground.
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 13:42   #24
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Quote:
Originally posted by hyfe
However, whats not intuitive, and which i demonstrated (and picked an example to show): scanning around 90% chance actually has a larger spread than around 50% chance. This is especially important when considering PA 'random'-number generator rumours.
If I understand that correctly:
If 100 people do their scans at about 50%, it is likely there will be few of them that stand out (with a lot more or less roids than the average).
If 100 people do their scans at about 90%, it is likely there will be a significant number of them that end up with a lot more or less roids than the average.
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 14:12   #25
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Quote:
Originally posted by zenopus
If I understand that correctly:
If 100 people do their scans at about 50%, it is likely there will be few of them that stand out (with a lot more or less roids than the average).
If 100 people do their scans at about 90%, it is likely there will be a significant number of them that end up with a lot more or less roids than the average.
Yes, that is the general direction of the results. That it's a significant number I wouldn't say.

However in analogy with the short scan series varying more than the long ones, the single player with many amps is more likely to curse his bad luck than the single player with few amps. And if the low amp guy gets lucky, he'll be really happy, yet if the high amp guy gets lucky he'll just attribute it to the amps. Conversely if you fail with few amps, you tend to attribute it to statistics, while if failing with a high estimated successrate you curse the gods and creators and go about your day really pissed off at the world.

People that feel pleased with themselves act more secure and self-assured. Secure and self-assured people more often achieve their interpersonal goals, like picking up women, negotiating higher wages or the like.


Conclusion
Go for a lower amp/roid ratio and it will improve your financial and sexual situation RL
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 14:21   #26
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can I just for the record state again that I am in love with this man you know as Chax
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 15:11   #27
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It works

I have 0 amps, I act like I know what I'm doing and already someone loves me!
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 15:55   #28
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Unread 6 Mar 2003, 19:07   #29
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Quote:
Originally posted by hyfe
heh. you're complaining because i choose and example that might get a lower variance on the high amps/low scan strategy?
No I complain cuase you used an example that is extremly unlikey to happen. Virually all scan that will be done are with more amps than scans. Only on first scan there might be a slight chance of someone picking 11 scans 10 amps but your example was neither a fisrt scan and much more extreme. My suggestions however were more realistic.

Quote:

hAlA:
Your example use 100% chance for a while. As long as you get 100% chance the variance and risk wll be lower. In that aspect you are completly correct. This is fairly intuitive.

However, whats not intuitive, and which i demonstrated (and picked an example to show): scanning around 90% chance actually has a larger spread than around 50% chance. This is espicially important when considering PA 'random'-number generator rumours.

So; as far as I can see; both extremes are better than the middle ground.
The 100% is only for 1st scan whereas your example had at least 5 guaranteed failed scans if anything limits the variances it is guaranteed chances and your example contained 5 times as much of those.

You speak of intuitive but actualy is is the example you picked that is totally nonintuitive that made your spread look the way it did. Your example is just not a good one. Try my examply or try you own example but with half the scans or double the amps. That will avoid the 5 guaranteed failed scans that your original example has.

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Unread 7 Mar 2003, 10:40   #30
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Quote:
Originally posted by isildurx
most big planets last round went 3c, but if ur rly unlucky(i am) u kinda fk up and get behing.


last round i went 2c 1 e, worked fine and i was top 20 after 100ish ticks
I was top3 2c 1e is the best. You wont have enough amps with 3 c. (you have to think about the 2nd and 3rd time to scan too, not just the initial one)
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Unread 7 Mar 2003, 11:41   #31
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Quote:
[i][code]
Old formula:

0.15 * (1 + amps/roids)
This was actually:
0.15 * (2 + amps/roids)


As to 2c1e vs 3c...

I'm personally an advocate of 2c1e, since I really hate the idea of getting 1 from the first batch of scans and also because I think it's on overall a bit faster.

Worked fine for in the 5min-beta, I missed 3 ticks before I got to scanning and still ended up with 107 roids when I stopped scanning (as opposed to 101 on the 2nd RR). I doubt people were using very well optimized plans there though, and not many people were playing, and with me having GC bonuses (after tick 40), not many people could fairly compete.

The 3c way generally relies more on luck, and therefore it is likely that both the top and bottom (of those who do serious plans) are populated by 3c people, and the middle-range by 2c1e. Therefore quoting top 10 or top 100 results aren't really significant if we want to see where the odds are good (also the fact that most people probably went 3c out of habit, was not 50%-50%).

Thirdly, according to the manual, you can not scan without amps. Whether the game engine actually does use the scans up if you try to scan multiple times is up to question though.

Back to the issue variation:

100 scans at 50% would provide:

average: 50
standard deviation using simplified formulas: ~5 (in reality this formula shouldn't be used for probabilities between 10 and 90, but it gives us a direction here)

100 scans at 90% would provide:
average: 90
standard deviation: ~3

100 scans at 100% would give:
average: 100
standard deviation: 0

In any case, the variation is greatest around 50%, and decreases as you go up or down. This is, however, not an accurate description of what goes on in PA, since as pointed out, those last scans probably shouldn't be fired at some 5% probability. The smart way to do 3c might very well be that you only scan for, say, 4-6 roids (someone feel free to calc this).
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Unread 7 Mar 2003, 15:28   #32
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the old formula was 0.3 *(1+ amps/roids)

and regarding the variance it's rather pointless comparisons you make since you're just adding amps out of the blue. Thing is if you want to add the amps you have to remove scans to make the calculations be based on same roids.
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Unread 10 Mar 2003, 13:38   #33
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Um..........

Am I missing somet here?

the formula = .30 * (amps/roids)

so whats to stop me getting 10amps (meaning 100% success rate with 3 roids) and lots of astro scans (50+) and aquiring many roids that way?

i did 2c 1e for this purpose.

and how does the formula work for amps = 0?

.30 * (0/3)
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Unread 10 Mar 2003, 13:56   #34
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Quote:
Originally posted by Cmdr_Cyrax
the formula = .30 * (amps/roids)

so whats to stop me getting 10amps (meaning 100% success rate with 3 roids) and lots of astro scans (50+) and aquiring many roids that way?
Only the 1st scan will have 100% success rate. And for every successful scan one amp dies, so after the first scan you have one less amp and one more roid, so the success rate for the 2nd scan is not 100%, but 67.5% = .30 * (9/4).
It does not matter that you launch all your scans in one go.
Quote:
and how does the formula work for amps = 0?

.30 * (0/3)
Yes.
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Unread 10 Mar 2003, 15:28   #35
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I went for 1c and 1e, and started res and counstruction..
only reason was that I had no chance of being here when the ticks started
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Unread 11 Mar 2003, 01:33   #36
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100% chance is the same as a 1% chance as a chance is still a chance.
Who can define a chance?
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Unread 11 Mar 2003, 02:12   #37
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Quote:
Originally posted by Rinoa
100% chance is the same as a 1% chance as a chance is still a chance.
Who can define a chance?
Someone who understands probability.
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Unread 11 Mar 2003, 09:05   #38
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Unread 11 Mar 2003, 10:33   #39
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Quote:
Originally posted by Telest
This was actually:
0.15 * (2 + amps/roids)


As to 2c1e vs 3c...

I'm personally an advocate of 2c1e, since I really hate the idea of getting 1 from the first batch of scans and also because I think it's on overall a bit faster.

Worked fine for in the 5min-beta, I missed 3 ticks before I got to scanning and still ended up with 107 roids when I stopped scanning (as opposed to 101 on the 2nd RR). I doubt people were using very well optimized plans there though, and not many people were playing, and with me having GC bonuses (after tick 40), not many people could fairly compete.

The 3c way generally relies more on luck, and therefore it is likely that both the top and bottom (of those who do serious plans) are populated by 3c people, and the middle-range by 2c1e. Therefore quoting top 10 or top 100 results aren't really significant if we want to see where the odds are good (also the fact that most people probably went 3c out of habit, was not 50%-50%).

Thirdly, according to the manual, you can not scan without amps. Whether the game engine actually does use the scans up if you try to scan multiple times is up to question though.

Back to the issue variation:

100 scans at 50% would provide:

average: 50
standard deviation using simplified formulas: ~5 (in reality this formula shouldn't be used for probabilities between 10 and 90, but it gives us a direction here)

100 scans at 90% would provide:
average: 90
standard deviation: ~3

100 scans at 100% would give:
average: 100
standard deviation: 0

In any case, the variation is greatest around 50%, and decreases as you go up or down. This is, however, not an accurate description of what goes on in PA, since as pointed out, those last scans probably shouldn't be fired at some 5% probability. The smart way to do 3c might very well be that you only scan for, say, 4-6 roids (someone feel free to calc this).

-> I bet my ass you stat economics
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Unread 11 Mar 2003, 11:41   #40
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Quote:
Originally posted by Chax
the old formula was 0.3 *(1+ amps/roids)

and regarding the variance it's rather pointless comparisons you make since you're just adding amps out of the blue. Thing is if you want to add the amps you have to remove scans to make the calculations be based on same roids.
Nope, the old formula was:
0.3 * ( 1 + amps/(2*roids))

which is equal to:
0.15 * (2 + amps/roids)

The above calculations on variance were not supposed to be an exact representation of what's going on in PA. The thing is, that variance generally increases as you add scans, or when odds move towards 50%
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Unread 11 Mar 2003, 11:43   #41
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Quote:
Originally posted by -QS-
-> I bet my ass you stat economics
Actually, this is mathematics from highschool, that's why I say it's only the approximate formulas. If I was doing real statistics, I would calculate the numbers exactly... (but I don't really remember how to do that)

And still for those asking on 0 amps, the manual claims that you CAN NOT scan without amps. Then again, the manual is known to have been wrong.

Last edited by Telest; 11 Mar 2003 at 11:51.
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Unread 11 Mar 2003, 13:35   #42
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Quote:
Originally posted by Telest
Actually, this is mathematics from highschool, that's why I say it's only the approximate formulas. If I was doing real statistics, I would calculate the numbers exactly... (but I don't really remember how to do that)
my results when playing around with numbers were largely different when i used poofing amps and when not:

'think of amps as a conservative power; if you have luck the chance to get more roids decreases, if you're unlucky the chance increases. Now: the increase/decrease factor is much bigger when doing mass scans/medium amps than the opposite (more scans means more probabily changing) ; hence my (at first glance) pretty heniuos claim that variance is smaller at 50% than at 90%.'

Regularar statistics only gets you that far on complicated issues =(
Quote:


And still for those asking on 0 amps, the manual claims that you CAN NOT scan without amps. Then again, the manual is known to have been wrong.
Spinner also claim that there is always an 1% chance a scan will succeed, along with a 1% chance that a scan will fail.

I've never heard of a scan failing when it should have worked though; so I'm inclined to not believe him
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Unread 11 Mar 2003, 16:39   #43
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Well, in any case, 2c1e with 3 scans & 15 amps has

78% chance of getting 3 roids
and 22% chance of getting 2 roids

with the first scanning. There isn't much room for varioation there, really.

3c with 11 scans/11 amps can get anything from 1 to 11 roids.

The more scans you use, the greater the variation of the result. The closer to 50% your odds are, the greater the variation (standard deviation is proportional to the total square root of number of scans, hence more scans means more deviation).
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Unread 11 Mar 2003, 18:13   #44
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Chance this, percentage that.... The thingy called LUCK has to much of an influence which ever way you choose to go, so why bother arguing over it anyway, just cross your fingers when its time to scan



Quote:
the manual claims that you CAN NOT scan without amps.
That is how it works yes.
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Unread 12 Mar 2003, 00:47   #45
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Quote:
Originally posted by dabult
Chance this, percentage that.... The thingy called LUCK has to much of an influence which ever way you choose to go, so why bother arguing over it anyway, just cross your fingers when its time to scan
You know, in round 7 I crossed my finger each time I scanned. I succeeded every scan (got a result above the expected value), and was even #1 for roids in the universe (2nd for score) for a couple of ticks and then I went to bed. I got up ranked #7 and totally forgot to cross my fingers that 2nd day. In the next 16h I dropped over a thousand ranks, landing at #1180 or so. I never recovered from this, I didn't see top 100 again that round.

CROSING YOUR FINGERS WORKS!
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Unread 13 Mar 2003, 02:20   #46
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roids

some people say you get more roids by doing them one at a time rather than all at once?...true or not
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Unread 13 Mar 2003, 02:43   #47
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Re: roids

Quote:
Originally posted by LEXX
some people say you get more roids by doing them one at a time rather than all at once?...true or not
there is nothing in the published materials that would indicate that that is the case... however given the state and overall quality of the published material...

we will probably never know (unless they release the source code when they go broke again)..
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Unread 13 Mar 2003, 04:37   #48
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Exclamation

A round or two ago, during a beta test, I decided to test the scanning formula. I did hundreds of scans under controlled circumstances and compared my actual results with the expected results (I posted my results on Strategy, but it got deleted in one of the periodic forum purges). Anyway, I learned two things:

1) If you do enough scans, the probabilities work out and you get about the number of roids you'd expect.

2) In an actual game--and especially the first week--you're never going to do that many scans.

Have fun!
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Unread 13 Mar 2003, 14:51   #49
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Re: roids

Quote:
Originally posted by LEXX
some people say you get more roids by doing them one at a time rather than all at once?...true or not
Actually there is a good reason to do the scans one by one or at least in small batches especially the first day of scanning but that is another point entirely.

hAl
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Unread 14 Mar 2003, 14:48   #50
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Yep, if you do the first scans one by one, and you get a reasonable amount of roids, it might be more effective to wait for more amps to arrive before you launch the lsat scans.
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