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16 Jul 2005, 20:18
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#1
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Angry Young Man
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mister Cacciatore's down on Sullivan Street
Posts: 7,518
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[Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
How are we doing my dearies.
Dont you always get to the end of a football season, hear about the money someone won and go "damn, i wish id taken that"? Of course you do, if you're reading this thread your a gambler. So maybe a lot of it is Gambler's hindsight of how "that was always worth a cheeky pound" or "that was a dead cert, why didnt i take it?".
But you dont. The major factor for me tends to be "i cant be assed investing for that long, waiting for a non guarenteed return". So to counter this, i intend to make it worth my while. Im going to tirelessly troll bookies, and create a huge accumulator of what i consider "worthwhile near certainties". Im probably not going to take the bet as an accumulator, rather, im going to take fourfolds or fivefolds to guarentee a return, but for arguments sake, im going to do the sums here as if it was a pure £10 accumulator.
Anyway, im going to list odds ive seen and like. This whole experiment will work best if you lot give me your opinions, and look for similar "catches". Here goes.
5/6 Stephen Gerrard to score more Premiership Goals than Paul Scholes this season
8/13 Frank Lampard to score more Premiership Goals than Tim Cahill this season
4/5 Chelsea to win the Premiership this Season
4/6 Liverpool to be top Premiership side (If you exclude Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea)
8/11 Aston Villa to finish higher than Birmingham this season
Thats just a start. All the above prices are from Blue Square ( www.bluesq.com ). Unless its an exceptional price, its best if everyone uses Blue Square so that compiling the accy is possible.
A £10 accumulator on the above would return : £153.46. Convinced?
__________________
Believe in me, cause i don't believe in anything
And i wanna be someone, to believe, to believe in
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16 Jul 2005, 20:54
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#2
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Don't make me declare war
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Portsmouth
Posts: 2,913
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
6/5 Rooney to score more goals than Van Nistleroy (Vans fitness is dodgy and hes been out a while)
evens Hasselbaink to score more than Yakabu (yak doesnt score that many if you take away his penalties
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16 Jul 2005, 20:56
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#3
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Don't make me declare war
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Portsmouth
Posts: 2,913
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
5/4 Phil taylor to not lose a televised match before the World championships (darts)
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16 Jul 2005, 21:05
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#4
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Aardvark is a funny word
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: I'm No Nino Rota
Posts: 5,923
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Forest
6/5 Rooney to score more goals than Van Nistleroy (Vans fitness is dodgy and hes been out a while)
evens Hasselbaink to score more than Yakabu (yak doesnt score that many if you take away his penalties
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yes but both of these are 'vaguely probables' rather than 'near certs'
__________________
Efficiency, efficiency they say
Get to know the date and tell the time of day
As the crowds begin complaining
How the Beaujolais is raining
Down on darkened meetings on the Champs Élysées
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16 Jul 2005, 21:13
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#5
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Don't make me declare war
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Portsmouth
Posts: 2,913
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
the yakabu one i see as a near cert.
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16 Jul 2005, 21:15
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#6
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lolly roffle
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 5,514
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Rovers to be bottom of the fair play league.
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eXcessum
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16 Jul 2005, 23:40
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#7
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I play the double-bass.
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Germany
Posts: 2,198
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JC
Rovers to be bottom of the fair play league.
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hehe i like you
edit: oh and henry player of the year.
__________________
The music called Jaazzz..
Charlie Mingus, such nimble fingers
Droppin the bass, all over the place
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17 Jul 2005, 11:31
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#8
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lolly roffle
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 5,514
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lupin
hehe i like you
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Spread the love <3
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eXcessum
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3 Aug 2005, 15:52
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#9
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Angry Young Man
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mister Cacciatore's down on Sullivan Street
Posts: 7,518
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
An Update to this thread. Im going to place the bet tonight, but just adding some final adjustments to it.
It currently stands at :
10/11 Aston Villa to Finish ahead of Birmingham & West Brom
5/6 Gerrard to score more Premiership goals than Scholes
4/7 Lampard to score more premiership goals than Cahill
4/5 John Terry to be in the PFA team of the year
4/6 Frank Lampard to be in the PFA team of the year
5/6 Steven Gerrard to be in the PFA team of the year
4/6 Chelsea to win the Premiership
4/6 Liverpool to finish top if Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea were removed from the Prem.
£10 returns £840.28
Im looking for one or two more odds to top up the accy just to make it even sweeter, though i wont compromise it.
Anyway, final thoughts? Im placing it at about midnight tonight, give me some final time to look for some more good odds, mull it over.
__________________
Believe in me, cause i don't believe in anything
And i wanna be someone, to believe, to believe in
Last edited by Deffeh; 3 Aug 2005 at 15:58.
Reason: Changed aston villa's odds slightly
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3 Aug 2005, 16:05
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#10
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1up on you
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Birmingham, UK
Posts: 4,007
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
they all look very juicy bets idd, ill have a look when I get back from work and see what I can find
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pig
[ 1u p]
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3 Aug 2005, 16:37
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#11
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share the <3
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Location: Location:
Posts: 2,709
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
deffeh i know nothing about betting, are those odds 'on' or 'against' ie what do those numbers actually mean?
wouldn't it be sensible to spend a bit more and hedge your bets? ie take those scenarios and place £5 bets with various combinations instead of one big one (say 5-6), that way even if one or two fail you'll still make back your money with some profit.
may be talking utter bollocks.
__________________
Sophie is hotter than you
though ive gone off her now; the way Susanna Reid squirms around on sml is, however, awesome
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3 Aug 2005, 17:12
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#12
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:cool:
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Here, there and everywhere
Posts: 791
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
I've always liked accumulators, but it's really REALLY annoying when you get say 9 out of 10 correct but the last "dead cert" match ends up a draw or something and you lose.
Although I've never done accumulators on season long bets like this before - could be interesting. And £800 sounds tasty....
__________________
Danger gleams like sunshine to a brave man's eyes.
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3 Aug 2005, 17:14
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#13
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Back from timeout.
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 901
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
How are we doing my dearies.
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I'm great.
__________________
Quote:
Originally posted by Marilyn Manson
You'll have to prise my penis from my cold, dead hand!
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Quote:
Originally posted by Yahwe
Gay ducks only do it because it impresses their peers.
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3 Aug 2005, 17:24
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#14
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Angry Young Man
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mister Cacciatore's down on Sullivan Street
Posts: 7,518
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
6/4 for example, means that for every £4 you stake, you will win £6 back. So for example, staking £20 at odds of 6/4 means you will win back £30 plus your £20 stake - therefore, £50.
Just look at it as a regular fraction : a/b (s = stake)
( a * s/ b ) + s = winnings
When it comes to accumulators like im doing there, what you do is a ridiculously long and complicated sum, multiplying the different fractions. So you do
s * ((a1/b1)+1) * ((a2/b2)+1) * ((a3/b3)+1) = winnings.
Thats why accumulators give such great odds. Multiple outcomes = better odds. All the outcomes i posted above have rubbish odds, but combined they are ****ing ace. Take chelsea winning the league for example. £10 on them would return about £16 in total.
As for hedging my bets, you are probably right. What i could do is take fivefolds or sixfolds from my list. The only problem is, with 8 outcomes the odds are at a lovely 83/1 (roughly), for sixfolds they drop to about 30/1. Even if i spent £10 on each sixfold, if only one came in id make £300 profit - but when you take away the amount of sixfolds id have to make, the profit wouldnt be worth it. Also the overall stake is too high if i do it that way. Im only in this for a smallish stake, low chance, high reward sort of deal.
Ive just hit a stumbling block though. Blue Square is broken, also my PFA team of the year bets dont seem to be allowed as part of multiples.
__________________
Believe in me, cause i don't believe in anything
And i wanna be someone, to believe, to believe in
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3 Aug 2005, 19:41
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#15
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share the <3
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Location: Location:
Posts: 2,709
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
deffeh apparently 'each way' means that you either get the win and the placing or just the placing (if the team doesn't win)
brazil is given as 4/1 outright - win or each way 1/2 1,2
isn't it a fairly safe bet that they'll at least get the runners up place?
__________________
Sophie is hotter than you
though ive gone off her now; the way Susanna Reid squirms around on sml is, however, awesome
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3 Aug 2005, 20:01
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#16
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:cool:
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Here, there and everywhere
Posts: 791
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
If you're talking about the world cup, I wouldn't call it a "safe bet" that brazil will reach the final....Remember France in world cup 2002?
__________________
Danger gleams like sunshine to a brave man's eyes.
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3 Aug 2005, 21:39
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#17
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Aardvark is a funny word
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: I'm No Nino Rota
Posts: 5,923
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
not sold on the PFA. Terry perhaps, but between gerrard and lampard you have no room for someone else being second best in central midfield.
__________________
Efficiency, efficiency they say
Get to know the date and tell the time of day
As the crowds begin complaining
How the Beaujolais is raining
Down on darkened meetings on the Champs Élysées
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3 Aug 2005, 22:29
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#18
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Angry Young Man
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mister Cacciatore's down on Sullivan Street
Posts: 7,518
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Its a world cup season. The media will be bigging up the Engerland heroes, and this will be in all the voting players minds.
__________________
Believe in me, cause i don't believe in anything
And i wanna be someone, to believe, to believe in
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3 Aug 2005, 22:46
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#19
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
I would offer Forest to be promoted from League 1...
Should be an almost dead cert...
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3 Aug 2005, 23:42
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#20
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J to the C to the A G E
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Scúnthorpe
Posts: 5,583
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Bluesq offer 2/1 on S****horpe relegated from League 1. I'd say that's a dead cert, given the squad is even weaker than last season.
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6 Aug 2005, 14:34
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#21
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Made of Twigs
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 5,459
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
I think Villa will let you down.
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If I hadn't seen such riches, I could live with being poor - James
It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am - Muhammad Ali
So **** y'all, all of y'all; if y'all don't like me, blow me! - Dr. Dre
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7 Aug 2005, 21:44
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#22
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First Disciple of Aldur
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: The Vale of Aldur
Posts: 1,470
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
£10 to the bookies Deffeh.
But then I'm wearing a towel, so what do I know.
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Yeah.
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7 Aug 2005, 22:05
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#23
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________
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Somwhere I belong
Posts: 4,474
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
I betted £10 on Chelsea to beat Arsenal 2-1 with Drogba to score first.
William Hill said that if I predict Lampard to score first, I'd get £200. With Drogba, £400.
I'm £400 richer today. First time I won something in life.. well 2nd actually.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by blink 182
Breathing deeply, walking backwards,
finding strength to call and ask her
Roller coaster favorite ride,
let me kiss you one last time.
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7 Aug 2005, 22:18
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#24
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
drinks on you
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7 Aug 2005, 22:23
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#25
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________
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Somwhere I belong
Posts: 4,474
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Coming to London?
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by blink 182
Breathing deeply, walking backwards,
finding strength to call and ask her
Roller coaster favorite ride,
let me kiss you one last time.
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7 Aug 2005, 22:33
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#26
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
fancy putting me up?
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7 Aug 2005, 22:36
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#27
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________
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Somwhere I belong
Posts: 4,474
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
fancy putting me up?
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Tempting.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by blink 182
Breathing deeply, walking backwards,
finding strength to call and ask her
Roller coaster favorite ride,
let me kiss you one last time.
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7 Aug 2005, 23:23
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#28
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Angry Young Man
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mister Cacciatore's down on Sullivan Street
Posts: 7,518
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
gw Blasto
i reckoned it would be 3-0
****ing shite game though. Arsenal in particular should be relegated immediately for crapulence
__________________
Believe in me, cause i don't believe in anything
And i wanna be someone, to believe, to believe in
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7 Aug 2005, 23:25
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#29
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________
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Somwhere I belong
Posts: 4,474
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
I thought they played well in the second half.
*shrug*
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by blink 182
Breathing deeply, walking backwards,
finding strength to call and ask her
Roller coaster favorite ride,
let me kiss you one last time.
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7 Aug 2005, 23:32
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#30
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Angry Young Man
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mister Cacciatore's down on Sullivan Street
Posts: 7,518
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
what?
Their goal came as a result of a mistake. I dont care how much possession / how many shots they had, they didnt create a single chance.
Also, Lauren, Lehmann, Pires, Fabregas, Flamini, Toure are shit, Bergkamp is too old.
__________________
Believe in me, cause i don't believe in anything
And i wanna be someone, to believe, to believe in
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7 Aug 2005, 23:36
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#31
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________
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Somwhere I belong
Posts: 4,474
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
Fabregas
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A lot of critics would disagree with you y'know...
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by blink 182
Breathing deeply, walking backwards,
finding strength to call and ask her
Roller coaster favorite ride,
let me kiss you one last time.
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7 Aug 2005, 23:37
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#32
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Angry Young Man
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Mister Cacciatore's down on Sullivan Street
Posts: 7,518
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Yeah but they think Fabregas and Joe Cole are passable players so i dont care what they think
**** me joe cole was typically awful today
__________________
Believe in me, cause i don't believe in anything
And i wanna be someone, to believe, to believe in
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7 Aug 2005, 23:39
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#33
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________
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Somwhere I belong
Posts: 4,474
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
**** me joe cole was typically awful today
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I think Joe Cole had a quiet day.
But he's still the key player for England to win the World Cup 2006.... or so it says in every version of Championship Manager 2001/2002 +, and Football Manager 2005.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by blink 182
Breathing deeply, walking backwards,
finding strength to call and ask her
Roller coaster favorite ride,
let me kiss you one last time.
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8 Aug 2005, 20:22
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#34
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Has Soup On His Head
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 10,095
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Re: [Long Term] [Betting] GD, lets get rich.
Deffeh , double it up with a set of 25p trebles on any of the bets. You should do well with 6/8 or 7/8. A full 8/8 will rack up a very nice pile if they allow that type of bet. (Ladbrokes dont, neither do Hills )
__________________
And the Banker, inspired with a courage so new
It was matter for general remark,
Rushed madly ahead and was lost to their view
In his zeal to discover the Snark
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