[Football] Prediction League - "TNG"

[1-X]

Feb22
Aston Villa   [midge5] v [Grimble]   Birmingham
Tottenham   [Ragnarak] v [Embroglio]  Leicester


Feb 28
Arsenal        [Rids] v [Kurashima]   Charlton
Blackburn        [JC] v [Apothos]  Southampton
Everton     [Zharkov] v [midge5]   Aston Villa
Fulham       [Rember] v [Lupin]        Man Utd
Leicester [Embroglio] v [1-X]           Wolves
Man City       [Stew] v [Blastoderm]   Chelsea

Feb 29
Leeds           [LHC] v [Deffeh]     Liverpool
Portsmouth   [Lokken] v [MrL_JaKiri] Newcastle

Mar 03
Birmingham  [Grimble] v [Evergreen] Middlesbro

Mar 06
Birmingham  [Grimble] v [JonnyBGood]    Bolton

[1-X]

                     P W D L F A Pts
Blastoderm   Chelsea 2 2 0 0 6 3  6
Stew        Man City 2 2 0 0 5 1  6
LHC            Leeds 2 1 1 0 5 2  4
-----------------------------------
Ragnarak   Tottenham 2 1 1 0 4 1  4
JC         Blackburn 2 1 1 0 3 0  4
Rids         Arsenal 2 1 1 0 3 2  4
Embroglio  Leicester 2 1 1 0 2 1  4
Zharkov      Everton 2 1 1 0 2 1  4
midge5   Aston Villa 2 1 0 1 4 4  3
Apothos  Southampton 2 0 2 0 2 2  2
JonnyBGood    Bolton 2 0 2 0 0 0  2
Lokken    Portsmouth 2 0 1 1 2 4  1
1-X           Wolves 2 0 1 1 1 2  1
Lupin        Man Utd 2 0 1 1 1 2  1
MrL_JaKiri Newcastle 2 0 1 1 1 2  1
Deffeh     Liverpool 2 0 1 1 1 3  1
Grimble   Birmingham 2 0 1 1 0 2  1
-----------------------------------
Evergreen Middlesbro 2 0 1 1 0 3  1
Rember        Fulham 2 0 1 1 0 3  1
Kurashima   Charlton 2 0 0 2 2 7  0

[Stew]

I'm easy (no comments!) so I'll simply say whatever team is left - but I would like A team! (not THE A team!)

[JC]

Confirming my taking of Rovers pretty please.

[MrL_JaKiri]

God help whoever gets the unpredictableness of Tottenham and Blackburn.

O wai

[JC]

Now we have Mickey we will be very predictable.

[Rids]

Arsenal for me please

[midge5]

I will take any, not bothered really.

[Ragnarak]

Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri

God help whoever gets the unpredictableness of Tottenham and Blackburn.

O wai

I'll take Leeds too if no one wants them

[Zharkov]

i'll have any.

im easy

[Apothos]

Anyone thats left.

[Deffeh]

Liverpool, ta. Just because i like a challenge

[Embroglio]

anyone please

[1-X]

I can see the "anys" becoming Stewhampton, Apothos Villa, Middlesbroglio, Birmidgeham, Czharkov Athletic, and JonnyBoltonGood

A little reminder that there is a "normal" prediction league starting tuesday in case anyone hasn't noticed.
http://pirate.planetarion.com/showthread.php?t=174914

[Stew]

Stewhampton sounds good to me - they're quite unpredictable, I like a challenge! Unless any1 else wants them?
I can see me gettin carried away with this and checkin "my" clubs website more than the Derby website and checkin their result 1st!!

[LHC]

Any, ta

[Blastoderm]

Chelski pleese

[1-X]

17/20 places gone now

I'll give the "anys" time to express a preference if they wish, once we have 20. I wasn't expecting so many to be so flexible I might even have the good sense to abandon Wolves and go random too.

[Grimble v2.0]

Birmingham please

[1-X]

bumped because we'll never get the last two places filled if the thread is on page 2

I'll give details of the proposed scoring system later, so you can spot flaws and suggest improvements

EDIT where are Lokken and Kura and can we draw "sexy conclusions" from them being away at the same time?

[1-X]

Here's that proposed scoring system I mentioned. Abandon hope...

You predict the final score, the name of the first scorer and the time of the first goal.
The basic XG points remain the same.

1 point for being generally right G.
2 points for almost right A*
3 points for being exactly right X.

*G is upgraded to A if the prediction has either
- correct goal margin
- correct home or away goals

So with an an actual score of 3-1, a prediction of 4-2 would be almost right because of goal margin, as would 3-0 or 2-1 because of correct home or away goals.

Note the extra point is only added if the G condition has already been satisfied. "Actual: 3-1, prediction: 0-1" would not score a point (the downside is that predicting draws becomes an all-or-nothing bet... does "actual 1-1, prediction 1-0" deserve a point?)

so question 1 : a point for having either home or away goals correct should be...
A. only awarded if already generally right?
B. given if correctly predicted regardless of win/lose/draw?

Now on to first scorer and time of goal.

Your prediction for time of first goal is not connected to the prediction of scorer, they're two completely different chances to score a bonus point. We'll use the BBC Sport website as the source of goal times.
We have to have a range limit on the time prediction, otherwise your opponent could look at your prediction of say 25, and by stating 26 have the rest of the game covered. So we're not looking at whoever is nearest, we are awarding a point for being within +-10mins of the first goal. If both players predict a winning time, both get a point.

Question 2 : Do you want a further bonus point if your named scorer and time are both correct? (yes/no)

Question 3 : I suggested +-10 mins as the acceptable range for getting a point, so if you
predict 25, 15 to 35 is your range. If you think this should be bigger/smaller, here's your
chance to say how much and why...

Now onto a little problem. No-score draws. You're predicting 0-0.

Question 4 : choose
A. you don't predict time and scorer and you automatically get those points if you're right.
B. you can still predict a time and scorer to have more chances to score points if goals are scored.

It's not as complicated as it looks. We add up the points for each prediction, call them goals and put them together to make a score. The results go into a standard PWDLFAPts table.

If someone doesn't make a prediction, 0-0 is assumed. If they miss two consecutive games (without a good reason), we'll see if we can give their team away to someone else, like having a new manager.

So a few replies, answers, opinions, improvements would be welcome (along with "OMG what crazy league have I put my name down for!"). I might have to look at test predictions to try to find the right balance.

1. A/B
2. Y/N
3. 10/?
4. A/B

[Rember]

any i'll be in

[1-X]

added, next person gets the (probably) last place

[midge5]

1)A
2)yes
3)5
4)A

Also can I take Villa.

[1-X]

You are now a Villan.

Thanks for your answers, clearly you want the league to be as difficult as possible

[Evergreen]

1) A
2) yes
3) 3
4) A

Can I take Middlesborough?

[Kurashima]

I picked a great weekend to be away

Pick me a team , ill be back for Breakfast!

[1-X]

that's all 20 filled (assuming lokken confirms portsmouth, and he has entered every prediction league...)

We can start with Saturday's games. I'll give people from the "any" list some time (24 hours) to make a choice before filling the places randomly.

[JC]

A
Yes
5
B

[Grimble v2.0]

1. A
2. Yes
3. 5
4. A

[JonnyBGood]

Bolton plz. Sorry I was out drinking and gambling the last few days.

A
Yes
+-5
A

[lokken]

confirmed, cheers 1-X <3

[Rember]

oh then gimme Fulham \o/

[Rids]

1) A
2) yes
3) 5
4) A

[1-X]

I've updated the team list...

The weekend is looking like this atm :

      Aston Villa [midge5] v [?????] Leeds
       Bolton [JonnyBGood] v [Deffeh] Liverpool 
           Everton [?????] v [Lupin]Man Utd 
    Middlesbro [Evergreen] v [JC] Blackburn 
    Newcastle [MrL_JaKiri] v [?????] Leicester
       Southampton [?????] v [Rember] Fulham 
      Tottenham [Ragnarak] v [Lokken] Portsmouth  
              Wolves [1-X] v [Rids] Arsenal 

          Man City [?????] v [Grimble] Birmingham 
      Chelsea [Blastoderm] v [Kurashima] Charlton

[?????] = Apothos|Embroglio|LHC|Stew|Zharkov

[1-X]

The suggestions are mostly going the same way. (TY BTW)

Question 5 : As there seems to be unanimity about "almost" only being given if already "general", would you like to see it further tightened by "not only does either home or away goals have to be exact, the other has to be +-1 too"?

Question 6 : the bonus point for correct goal margin. Is it a good thing? (atm it's another way of being "almost" right, though it can be loosely given, (eg actual 1-0, predict 3:2)

Question 7 : is there any incentive to predict 0-0 under the current rules? It seems to be an unbeatable win if you're right (when you consider what the opponent scores with his wrong prediction), but a total disaster if you're wrong. Will we see people predicting 1-1 as a loophole when they mean 0-0, because they're getting 2 for being almost right, plus they have the chance to get points for scorer and time? (I know they'd get 5 points if it was 0-0, but if they say 1-1instead and the opponent hasn't predicted a draw, they'll probably still be winning anyway and can hedge their bets too. Opinions?

[JC]

5) No

6) Yes

7) I'ld keep it how it is. If someone has the 'guts' to predict 0-0 they get the points they deserve if it comes off.

[midge5]

5) I would prefer the bonus point only to be given for correct winning margines rather than for correct home/away goals as well. If you want that though then yes the other team should be +-1 .

6) yes

7) While risky it can bring good rewards if you are willing to risk it so I would leave it like that. Or perhaps you could make draws 2 points if say you predicted 0-0 and it was 1-1 as that is more or less the same as the goal difference bit.

[1-X]

Question 7 problems...

Player predicts 0-0. If he is right (and the opponent has predicted a home/away) it's a 6-0 win.
If he is wrong, he scores 2 if it's a score draw (still enough for a likely win), otherwise 0.

If he predicts 1-1, and the result is 0-0 he still has his 2 points for being almost right (and the opponent can only score from scorer/time prediction). plus he gets the chance to increase that with a scorer/time prediction of his own.

This is why I suggested allowing 0-0 predictors to make a scorer/time prediction even though it seems contradictory. Maybe if we look at scorer/time as completely separate and a second chance to score points, rather than as part of one big single prediction?)

[Evergreen]

Just abolish almost right imo.

Keep things clean and simple.

X and G, scorer and time etc....

[Rember]

oh lets see

1 A
2 yes
310
3 A
4 keep it as u said.
5 yes
6 0-0 sux u dont want to bet on that so it's allright

[LHC]

1) A
2) yes
3) 10
4) B
5) No
6) Yes
7) Leave as is

<3

[Stew]

I'm completely confused - just tell me what to predict and when

Lets predict attendance as well

[Ragnarak]

Originally Posted by Stew

I'm completely confused - just tell me what to predict and when

Lets predict attendance as well

[Lupin]

Originally Posted by Stew

I'm completely confused - just tell me what to predict and when

Lets predict attendance as well

[Kurashima]

1. A
2. Y
3. 10
4. B

And ill take Charlton.

[Kurashima]

And with all these calculations and editorials going on in your head, have you considered applying to Ladbrokes for a job.

[1-X]

I have an "online dice throwing thing" ready to allocate the remaining players to teams.

The delay is my dithering about whether to keep Wolves or go random too. I've been in a prediction league just for Wolves results and I was crap...

[JC]

Make your mind up which thread you are posting that in mate .

Stick with Wolves, i need someone to be below me because i will predict a win every week and lose more often than not .

[1-X]

I'll keep them but I know I'll regret it.

Random allocations :

Southampton - Apothos
Everton - Zharkov
Manchester City - Stew
Leicester - Embroglio
Leeds - LHC