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6 Nov 2003, 13:40
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#1
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Guest
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Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Maybe there is hope, even the bookies think so
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6 Nov 2003, 14:14
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: South Pacific
Posts: 4,911
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
paxman > howard.
__________________
I think it's time we blow this scene, get everybody and the stuff together..........
ok 3..... 2..... 1.. let's jam
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6 Nov 2003, 14:45
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#3
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Winnings = £30.00.
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6 Nov 2003, 14:59
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#4
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Let's hope he has the good sense on how to lead the party properley. Hague and IDS have certainly given him many insights into how not to do it.
Portillo is a likely choice for the Shadow Cabinet, if you ask me. Clarke is much less likely, and probably won't be returning.
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6 Nov 2003, 15:23
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#5
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Ancram and Davis probably didn't go for the leadership as they were offered shadow cabinet positions. And they would be fools to remove Letwin...
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6 Nov 2003, 15:27
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#6
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Ancram and Davis probably didn't go for the leadership as they were offered shadow cabinet positions. And they would be fools to remove Letwin...
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They already have Shadow Cabinet positions, and pretty bloody high ones at that, so I'm not entirely sure what you're going on about here.
The idea that Howard would have had to 'buy off' just about everyone's support is pretty ridiculous anyway, since he was always going to win, and anyone who ran against him would have been torched alive. Whether the senior bods cynically recognised this and threw themselves behind him, or whether they were genuinely striving to unify is pretty irrelevant. Davis was just covering his back when he said he would have won; his Parliamentary support is low, and he would have been eaten by the membership, although Howard may have come to some understanding with him, personally. With anyone else, tohugh? I doubt it.
I'd imagine that Howard will try and retire Ancram somehow, move Letwin to Foreign and Commonwealth, and try and bring Portillo in as Shadow Chancellor or Home Secretary. Davis might get the other post, to appease the right, or he might bring in someone else entirely. He has to be seen to be balancing everything, and it's going to be hard, really. No-one really would want to go for obvious reasons.
Last edited by Marilyn Manson; 6 Nov 2003 at 15:33.
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6 Nov 2003, 15:32
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#7
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
There's obviously going to be a reshuffle.
If they were told that they could keep their positions in the new shadow cabinet then they may have been dissuaded to challenge for leadership.
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6 Nov 2003, 15:35
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#8
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
There's obviously going to be a reshuffle.
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Well, that's god-obvious. Howard is hardly going to stay as both Shadow Chancellor and Leader, is he?
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6 Nov 2003, 15:37
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: South Pacific
Posts: 4,911
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Blair will be replaced by Paxman and parliament will become amusing.
__________________
I think it's time we blow this scene, get everybody and the stuff together..........
ok 3..... 2..... 1.. let's jam
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6 Nov 2003, 15:37
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#10
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Exactly, and while he's at it he'll probably move a few of the other positions around too...
Not sure whether Portillo will come back but Clarke almost definately won't...
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6 Nov 2003, 15:38
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#11
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radical Edward
Blair will be replaced by Paxman and parliament will become amusing.
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Here's your starter for ten: How big a shit was IDS, and how big a shit are you, Mr Howard?
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6 Nov 2003, 15:39
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#12
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Exactly, and while he's at it he'll probably move a few of the other positions around too...
Not sure whether Portillo will come back but Clarke almost definately won't...
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Repeating what I've just said may be very flattering, but it doesn't contribute much to the debate, you know.
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6 Nov 2003, 15:44
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#13
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Henry Kelly
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 7,374
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
They should make Clarke Secretary of Hats =(
__________________
You're now playing ketchup
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6 Nov 2003, 15:44
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: South Pacific
Posts: 4,911
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marilyn Manson
Here's your starter for ten: How big a shit was IDS, and how big a shit are you, Mr Howard?
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I wonder how many times he could repeat that in a parliamentry session.
__________________
I think it's time we blow this scene, get everybody and the stuff together..........
ok 3..... 2..... 1.. let's jam
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6 Nov 2003, 15:47
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#15
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Actually I was saying that Ancram and Davis are probably going to stay in the cabinet as they were promised positions in return for not standing.
You said:
Quote:
They already have Shadow Cabinet positions, and pretty bloody high ones at that, so I'm not entirely sure what you're going on about here.
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but there will be a reshuffle...
Quote:
The idea that Howard would have had to 'buy off' just about everyone's support is pretty ridiculous anyway, since he was always going to win, and anyone who ran against him would have been torched alive. Whether the senior bods cynically recognised this and threw themselves behind him, or whether they were genuinely striving to unify is pretty irrelevant. Davis was just covering his back when he said he would have won; his Parliamentary support is low, and he would have been eaten by the membership, although Howard may have come to some understanding with him, personally. With anyone else, tohugh? I doubt it.
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If anyone else had stood it would have gone to the members of the party to vote. Look what happened last time, and the time before...
Quote:
I'd imagine that Howard will try and retire Ancram somehow, move Letwin to Foreign and Commonwealth, and try and bring Portillo in as Shadow Chancellor or Home Secretary. Davis might get the other post, to appease the right, or he might bring in someone else entirely. He has to be seen to be balancing everything, and it's going to be hard, really. No-one really would want to go for obvious reasons.
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I think Ancram and Davis will have to stay. Defence and Chairman most probably, although I don't know who'll be shadow deputy...
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6 Nov 2003, 15:47
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#16
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by pablissimo
They should make Clarke Secretary of Fats =(
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6 Nov 2003, 15:48
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#17
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Henry Kelly
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 7,374
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
I was going to say pies but changed it to hats at the last second
__________________
You're now playing ketchup
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6 Nov 2003, 15:55
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#18
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Actually I was saying that Ancram and Davis are probably going to stay in the cabinet as they were promised positions in return for not standing.
You said:
but there will be a reshuffle...
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Err, I'm quite confused now. You appear to be operating on a logical basis that is quite unkown to me.
You said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Ancram and Davis probably didn't go for the leadership as they were offered shadow cabinet positions.
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I merely pointed out that they already have two of the highest Shadow Cabinet Positions, which rendered your point pointless. How this negates the idea that there will be a re-shuffle is beyond me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
If anyone else had stood it would have gone to the members of the party to vote. Look what happened last time, and the time before...
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Errr, this means?
The most popular right-wing candidate would have won, had it gone to the vote, which in this case was easily Howard. This is what happened with IDS and Clarke, and the same thing would have happened here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
I think Ancram and Davis will have to stay. Defence and Chairman most probably, although I don't know who'll be shadow deputy...
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Ancram could probably be pensioned off. Davis will be a lot more difficult to deal with, mainly because he has such a high opinion of himself.
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6 Nov 2003, 16:04
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: South Pacific
Posts: 4,911
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
the question is, will they win the next election and make any of this discussion remotely relevant?
__________________
I think it's time we blow this scene, get everybody and the stuff together..........
ok 3..... 2..... 1.. let's jam
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6 Nov 2003, 16:06
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#20
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radical Edward
the question is, will they win the next election and make any of this discussion remotely relevant?
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No.
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6 Nov 2003, 16:08
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#21
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marilyn Manson
Err, I'm quite confused now. You appear to be operating on a logical basis that is quite unkown to me.
I merely pointed out that they already have two of the highest Shadow Cabinet Positions, which rendered your point pointless. How this negates the idea that there will be a re-shuffle is beyond me.
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They get to keep their positions. When a new leader comes in they tend to do a large reshuffle. noones positions are completely secure. I dont see how I'm confusing you.
Quote:
Errr, this means?
The most popular right-wing candidate would have won, had it gone to the vote, which in this case was easily Howard. This is what happened with IDS and Clarke, and the same thing would have happened here.
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Not necessarily. It was between IDS and Clarke last time because everyone elses vote was split. And with Hague the time before - Not many people specifically wanted him in either.
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6 Nov 2003, 16:16
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#22
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Lord Denning
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: City of London
Posts: 2,548
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radical Edward
the question is, will they win the next election and make any of this discussion remotely relevant?
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If they don't win, they'll at least get a lot more seats and provide a more effective opposition to Tony.
__________________
Please bear in mind when reading the above post that I am always right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marilyn Manson
He was crowned in York Cathedral as 'Expert in the West' by Pope Urban III in 1186.
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6 Nov 2003, 16:18
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#23
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
They get to keep their positions. When a new leader comes in they tend to do a large reshuffle. noones positions are completely secure. I dont see how I'm confusing you.
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That is not what you originally made plain. You said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Ancram and Davis probably didn't go for the leadership as they were offered shadow cabinet positions
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Which is not even ambiguous, but rather in contradiction of what you later said.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Not necessarily. It was between IDS and Clarke last time because everyone elses vote was split.
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Eh?
One part of the parliamentary party eventually gathered round the most eminently plausible reformist candidate, namely Clarke, and the other gathered around the stock right-wing option, I.E, IDS. The membership, in their eternal wisdom, went for whoever was the most right-wing (Of course.). Nobody was 'split' - I'm not actually sure where you get this from - since the whole contest totally polarised people's opinion by it's ideological nature.
Like I said, the same thing would probably have happened here. Hague was elected under the old rules, and is therefore a different case.
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6 Nov 2003, 16:23
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#24
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proteus
If they don't win, they'll at least get a lot more seats and provide a more effective opposition to Tony.
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Even if they win about fifty seats, then they'll still only be slightly above the number that Labour had after 1983, and look at what a great job the opposition did of taking on Thatcher in the 80's.
Whether the splits arise again, or are healed, and whether therefore, they can do a slightly better job than we did in the 80's, is entirely up to Howard, really.
The point remains though, unless they get Blair on the tightrope in terms of his majority (Which isn't going to happen; not at the next election, at least.) then they're still going to have a hard time really challenging his power, if not the basis of his policies intellectually.
Which is sort of why I argue that the constitution is a bit crappy in this regard.
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6 Nov 2003, 16:30
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#25
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Lord Denning
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: City of London
Posts: 2,548
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Wasn't Tony's majority on Foundation Hospitals about 35?
50 seats would have stopped that, at least.
__________________
Please bear in mind when reading the above post that I am always right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marilyn Manson
He was crowned in York Cathedral as 'Expert in the West' by Pope Urban III in 1186.
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6 Nov 2003, 16:30
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: South Pacific
Posts: 4,911
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proteus
If they don't win, they'll at least get a lot more seats and provide a more effective opposition to Tony.
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I don't think the number of seats is really the issue here, the issue is how they capitalise on errors made by their opponents. They aren't going to do anything much at all if they spend all their time argueing with themselves.
__________________
I think it's time we blow this scene, get everybody and the stuff together..........
ok 3..... 2..... 1.. let's jam
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6 Nov 2003, 16:37
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#27
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proteus
Wasn't Tony's majority on Foundation Hospitals about 35?
50 seats would have stopped that, at least.
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That was based on the recalcitrance of Labour MP's. That Blair can have that sort of thing going on is testament to how secure his position is. If he had a much smaller majority, whipping would be much more sustained, and the number that rebelled would be seriously cut back.
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6 Nov 2003, 19:46
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#28
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Guest
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Portillo will never be in shadow cab nor any other of those i think anway.
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6 Nov 2003, 19:50
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#29
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Clerk
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 13,940
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marilyn Manson
Let's hope he has the good sense on how to lead the party properley.
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Why do we hope this?
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6 Nov 2003, 21:38
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#30
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreadnought
Portillo will never be in shadow cab nor any other of those i think anway.
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He already has been in a real cabinet, and he will be in the next shadow cabinet if Howard pulls out the stops.
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6 Nov 2003, 21:40
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#31
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Why do we hope this?
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Because Blair needs a kick up the arse.
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6 Nov 2003, 23:31
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#32
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Clerk
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 13,940
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marilyn Manson
Because Blair needs a kick up the arse.
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He needs a damn sight more than that, but the Tories are the last people I'd want to see deliver it.
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6 Nov 2003, 23:32
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#33
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Big Kahuna
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 330
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radical Edward
paxman > howard.
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packman > both
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7 Nov 2003, 00:36
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#34
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Heh, Leeds !
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: In The Redfern
Posts: 3,790
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Clarke didnt stand because he knows that once the Tory party dump Howard, he will be the popular choice
Vaio
__________________
The George Harrison of BlueTuba
Yes, I know he is dead !
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7 Nov 2003, 23:13
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#35
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Mack Daddy
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Imperial States of America
Posts: 151
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
I am ignorant with the UK political setup. So could someone tell me what the shadow cabinet is? It sounds like something that is run by Sauron Inc.
__________________
History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme a lot.
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7 Nov 2003, 23:19
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#36
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Aardvark is a funny word
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: I'm No Nino Rota
Posts: 5,923
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
yes but only for a few days now
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7 Nov 2003, 23:24
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#37
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IRC Lackey
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Somewhere in the dark and nasty regions...
Posts: 1,471
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
__________________
-Mushroom.
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw
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10 Nov 2003, 17:49
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#38
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archi
I am ignorant with the UK political setup. So could someone tell me what the shadow cabinet is? It sounds like something that is run by Sauron Inc.
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The core of ministers in the government form the Cabinet - this includes the Prime Minister, the Chancellor of The Exchequer (Finance Minister), The Foreign Secretary, etc.
People in the Shadow Cabinet are members of a prospective Cabinet should the opposition come to power, (At least, in theory.) and will perform relevant functions associated with this, for example, The Shadow Foreign Secreatary will respond to The Foreign Secretary in Parliamnet on the relevant issues in that area, etc.
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10 Nov 2003, 18:23
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#39
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaio
Clarke didnt stand because he knows that once the Tory party dump Howard, he will be the popular choice
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With the party?!? Dream on.
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11 Nov 2003, 11:19
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#40
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Bored
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Nottm ->Shef ->Croydon ->Manc ->Durham ->Sheffield
Posts: 6,506
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Ancram and Davis probably didn't go for the leadership as they were offered shadow cabinet positions. And they would be fools to remove Letwin...
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Looks like I was right Mr Manson:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/h...ml/default.stm
Shadow Home Secretary - David Davis
Shadow Foreign Secretary - Michael Ancram
Shadow Chancellor - Oliver Letwin
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11 Nov 2003, 11:28
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#41
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
None of that proves the idea that Howard gave them any kind of prior assurance, so no. (And you're also rejecting the fact that Portillo turned down an offer, which would, should he have accepted, almost certainly neccesitated Ancram's removal, since he was probably the most expendable option. Letwin is a second best semi-leftist option as Chancellor. Conveinentily, Letwin is staunchly Thatcherite economically, which contrasts with his social liberalism, which is convienient, since it gives the impression of there being a top bod from the left of the party near the top, when there isn't any such thing; Letwin is going to to have minimal impact on social policy now. Howard would be best to go for Maude for some position, if you ask me... If Portillo had accepted, then I'm pretty sure what I outlined would have come about.)
Last edited by Marilyn Manson; 11 Nov 2003 at 11:36.
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11 Nov 2003, 11:31
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#42
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This is bat country
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Norway
Posts: 1,693
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Doll-Dagga Buzz-Buzz Ziggety-Zag
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11 Nov 2003, 11:47
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#43
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King of The Fat Boys
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: UK
Posts: 3,332
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
I know that the Cabinet get paid more, do the Shadow Cabinets though?
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11 Nov 2003, 11:54
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#44
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChubbyChecker
I know that the Cabinet get paid more, do the Shadow Cabinets though?
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The Leader of the Opposition almost certainly will. Not sure about Shadow Ministers.
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11 Nov 2003, 21:29
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#45
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King of The Fat Boys
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: UK
Posts: 3,332
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Re: Did you threaten to overrule him new tory leader!
Here we go:
http://www.cabinet-office.gov.uk/civ...sal_tables.htm
Looks like the only people in the opposition who get a different salary are the leaders and the whips. Though by the looks of it the whips actually get paid less! Or maybe they get that on top of the Parliamentary Salary. I dunno.
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