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13 Oct 2005, 20:38
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#1
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Prince of Amber
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Heidelberg, Germany
Posts: 1,313
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The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...823265,00.html
The Times October 13, 2005
The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Anatole Kaletsky
AFTER THIS WEEK’S creation of a German government in which Angela Merkel will not even control the Finance and Foreign ministries, all three of the great European nations that have dominated the Continent’s history for 2,000 years — Germany, France and Italy — are effectively leaderless. They will almost certainly remain politically paralysed at least until the French presidential election of 2007. The power vacuum now covering the whole of continental Europe is almost unprecedented, at least since the disastrous period between the two world wars.
But is the inability of German, French and Italian voters to choose effective political leaders and then to decide on clear programmes of social and economic reform — or more precisely the unwillingness to do so — a cause for worry? Or should we instead regard it as a natural product of the prosperous and comfortable societies that Europeans have created and simply want to preserve?
Before I try to answer these questions, let me consider the main premise: that the German elections, along with the French referendum before the summer, really do represent an important punctuation mark in the history of Europe: the point when the ambitious market-oriented economic reform programme that started in the 1950s but really accelerated in the 1990s was brought to a full stop.
This is the clear message from the composition of the new Government — with all the key “reform” ministries, including Finance, Labour, Health, Environment, Transport and Social Services, ceded to the Social Democrats, who only last month were denouncing the modern market economy as a biblical plague of locusts, laying waste to Germany’s traditional welfare state.
Indeed the main theme of the German election, as of the French referendum campaign before it, was public rejection of an economic reform agenda that was demanded by the business and political elites. The market reforms that would supposedly make Europe the “most competitive economy in the world” had been unanimously endorsed by Europe’s political leaders in their now-notorious Lisbon Declaration. But while the business and political elites across Europe became more and more obsessed with Lisbon’s promises of open markets, competition and globalisation, voters couldn’t help noticing that all these reforms, instead of improving their living standards or working conditions, were making them poorer and more insecure.
In this sense the German election, as much as the French referendum, was a grand gesture of defiance by voters against their political elites, a message perceptively summarised by Wolfgang Münchau, a German commentator in the Financial Times: “The German electorate has launched a new era in European economic policy — the post-reform era. After ten years of economic reforms, the Germans decided they had had enough.”
To judge by opinion polls, the French electorate is sending a similar message, with the conciliatory immobilisme of Dominique de Villepin steadily gaining ground against the radical promises of a “dynamic” government from Nicolas Sarkozy. A similar pattern seems to be developing in Italy, where the Berlusconi Government has long since abandoned all significant economic reform plans and now looks like being replaced by a Centre Left even more committed to preserving the status quo.
The reasons for this rejection have been discussed many times on this page and in my Economic Views. They come down to the simple point made by Münchau: reforms have been tried for a decade and they have failed to produce the promised increase in living standards or economic growth. Reforms have not delivered results because central banks have refused to support them with stimulative monetary policies and also because politicians have implemented them in the wrong order, starting with unpopular deflationary measures such as pension cuts, while delaying market liberalisation and financial deregulation that would have boosted wealth and created jobs. But all this is water under the bridge; the question now is whether the end of reforms should be seen as a disaster, an opportunity or a non-event.
At the European level, the unity of the German and French electorates in rejecting liberal reforms ends Tony Blair’s hopes of leading a pro-market consensus in Europe. On the contrary, the new coalition Government in Germany will find common cause with an ultra-cautious Chirac Government to re-create a powerful Franco-German axis, whose primary purpose will be to oppose liberal reforms. This, indeed, is already the situation reported from Brussels: the present European Commission is probably the most liberal ever, but its liberal ambitions, whether in trade policy, competition or deregulation, are frequently blocked by the veto-wielding combination of Germany and France.
But does the impending paralysis over reform in Europe really matter? This depends on one’s point of view. For Europeans who are elderly or who “own” their secure unionised jobs, especially in the public sector, the lack of economic dynamism is unimportant, compared to the generosity of pensions and protection of employment rights. High unemployment, which mainly afflicts the young and non-unionised, is a small price to pay for such security.
For Euro-idealists who hoped to see the EU moving towards federation and establishing itself alongside America and China, as one of the three global powers of the 21st century, the failure of European economic initiative may seem a disaster, but for ordinary citizens why should this matter? Superficially, therefore, Eurosceptics should welcome the inability of the “European model” to reform itself. It was always a delusion that the treaties of Rome and Maastricht had created a new system of socioeconomics that applied only to Europe and that could insulate its citizens from the realities of competition in the modern globalised world. In this sense, we must indeed welcome the recognition that national governments and voters, rather than bureaucrats in Brussels and Frankfurt, will determine their own national destinies by deciding on the necessary political trade-offs — between security and dynamism, between equality and incentives, between low taxes and generous public spending, and so on.
The tragedy, however, is that something precious will be lost if the people of Germany, France and Italy choose the path of a slow, comfortable national decline, rather than revitalisation. What will be lost, of course, is the global dominance of the European civilisation that these three great nations largely created.
As a democrat one has to acknowledge that the ageing electorates of Germany, France and Italy are entitled to vote for political paralysis, economic decline and global irrelevance. But the inevitable eclipse of European civilisation by a brash, materialistic American or Chinese culture will be a tragedy of epic proportions.
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"We sleep safe at night in our beds because rough men stand ready to visit violence upon those who wish to do us harm." -- George Orwell.
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13 Oct 2005, 20:43
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#2
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I am.
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 6,580
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
oh noes
'Texan thread'
We should build a bunker that we can all hide in whenever Texan re-apears with another of his pointless articles of extreme right wing opinion. Or at the very least a new smiley where the face is covering it's eyes with it's hands and slowly shaking it's head.
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hi
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13 Oct 2005, 20:54
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#3
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Insomniac
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 3,583
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
or we could just ban him. more effective
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13 Oct 2005, 20:55
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#4
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Mr. Blobby
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Belgium
Posts: 8,271
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
oh noes
'Texan thread'
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Or you could discuss the actual article, which does present an interesting viewpoint.
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13 Oct 2005, 21:11
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#5
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Heh, Leeds !
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: In The Redfern
Posts: 3,790
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
I don't remember voting for that.
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The George Harrison of BlueTuba
Yes, I know he is dead !
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13 Oct 2005, 21:14
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#6
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 2,635
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Everyone loves the market when it's giving them love. As soon as it goes wrong they blame anything except their own inability to adapt. European leaders, national and supra-national level, need to explain this to their citizen. Or just take the thatcher approach and smack everyone around a bit. But first the EU needs to seem more accountable to the public, else we'll keep voting 'non'.
In future Texan, just link to the article. There's no need to paste the whole thing.
Oh, and will the EU collapse? No.
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13 Oct 2005, 21:17
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#7
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Clerk
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 13,940
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Yeah I'm sure we'll all horrified that the German government are powerless.
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13 Oct 2005, 21:18
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#8
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Hi there ...
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 481
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
i think 1 important point about the elections in germany was that a lot of people agreed with the program of the CDU but not with the chancellor candidate mrs merkel. First of all she is a woman in a conservative party and might not have the backhold - especially between the older generation. ( and she is not beautiful if that counts )
She had many disadvantages compared to her male opponent schröder as he is far better on all media presentations and speeches and he just acts like a buddy and is to me he is very symphatic.
In my opinion the result is that split because the people could not decide between getting a proper chancelor or getting the *better* program for the next years.
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#Reunion
[Ascendancy] - While you were trying, we were sleeping
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13 Oct 2005, 21:22
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#9
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 2,635
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
The Germans agreed with the CDU's programme but not Merkel, and now the SDP has most of the powerful seats in the cabinet and Merkel's the chancellor. Fun.
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13 Oct 2005, 21:32
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#10
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Hi there ...
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 481
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
they have most of the powerful seats ? care to explain ?
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#Reunion
[Ascendancy] - While you were trying, we were sleeping
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13 Oct 2005, 21:35
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#11
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Heh, Leeds !
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: In The Redfern
Posts: 3,790
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
I gotta wonder if Texan reads the stuff he posts or does he just like the headlines ?
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The George Harrison of BlueTuba
Yes, I know he is dead !
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13 Oct 2005, 21:38
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#12
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 2,635
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
i thought they had control over the finance ministry. can we please bring this to an end. i feel dirty posting in texan's thread.
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13 Oct 2005, 21:46
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 4,290
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Quote:
Originally Posted by jupp
they have most of the powerful seats ? care to explain ?
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labor for Münti, finance for Steinbrück, foreign affairs for some guy i never heared about before. they get 8 out of 14 departments.
Economics is the only important one and that does not even go to the cdu, but the csu.
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im not tolerant, i just dont care.
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13 Oct 2005, 21:50
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#14
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Hi there ...
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 481
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
having control over the finance department wont give the SPD a lot of bonus points if germany follows the trend of the last years
yes they have control of more departments but more of the "working" department and less "presitge" departments ...
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#Reunion
[Ascendancy] - While you were trying, we were sleeping
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13 Oct 2005, 21:59
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#15
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First Disciple of Aldur
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: The Vale of Aldur
Posts: 1,470
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Times
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I would like Texan to explain why he found it necessary to post this article from The Times, without commentating on it at all.
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Yeah.
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13 Oct 2005, 22:01
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 4,290
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Quote:
Originally Posted by jupp
having control over the finance department wont give the SPD a lot of bonus points if germany follows the trend of the last years
yes they have control of more departments but more of the "working" department and less "presitge" departments ...
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Wirstchafts- und Innenministerium are the only one with 'prestige' the cdu is going to get. well, and defense, maybe but who needs that?
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im not tolerant, i just dont care.
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14 Oct 2005, 02:41
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#17
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BlueTuba
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 6,339
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texan
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...823265,00.html
The Times October 13, 2005
As a democrat one has to acknowledge that the ageing electorates of Germany, France and Italy are entitled to vote for political paralysis, economic decline and global irrelevance. But the inevitable eclipse of European civilisation by a brash, materialistic American or Chinese culture will be a tragedy of epic proportions.
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So people vote to preserve their culture, yet have to abandon it to preserve it?
I don't understand.
Unless he's claiming that the tragedy has already happened.
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"Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life."
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14 Oct 2005, 12:05
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#18
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Has Soup On His Head
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 10,095
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Germany didnt give Merkel a mandate because her reforms were too radical. And then didnt give Schroeder a mandate because his were more moderate, but hes got a track record now of not delivering.
For want of a better phrase, the German electorate was too pussy to back the candidate that offered the better deal becuase they had enough hardships & broken promises and simply didnt trust either party to deliver.
Thats pretty similar across European Politics now.
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And the Banker, inspired with a courage so new
It was matter for general remark,
Rushed madly ahead and was lost to their view
In his zeal to discover the Snark
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14 Oct 2005, 13:53
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#19
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
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14 Oct 2005, 14:12
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#20
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Vermin Supreme
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 3,280
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
1. Market reforms for welfare states hurt their economies and make life worse for everyone
2. Voting against them is voting for global irrelevance
did I miss anything?
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14 Oct 2005, 15:40
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#21
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Gone
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 14,656
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Oh, and the German grand coalition is either going to work reasonably well, or it's going to be a total disaster within a few months, and new elections will be called early next year. (With the CDU probably gaining a majority.)
Either way, Germany is hardly going to self-destruct.
Journalists have a fair for the melodramatic. (And the inncorrect.)
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14 Oct 2005, 17:11
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#22
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[+] Templar
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Stedten, Hessen / Germany
Posts: 137
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
I have to admit that I think the coalition between CDU/SPD is not a good thing for this country but I do not see things nearly as bleak as this journalist describes it.
I am pretty certain that there will be some necessary reforms made under the new government, probably even more that some think now. The reforms that were made already and will show an impact in the coming years, they just need time to produce results.
It is always easy to write such things in a radical market economy because there are lots of people who profit from such an environment. However those who are unable to produce in it be, probably without their own fault are off much worse than in our system. Of course we have such people that abuse our welfare system and they have to be spotted and it has to be made sure that they cannot use the benefits any longer. But it makes one sleep a little easier that you will not be standing in front of nothing if you ever get in need. The arrogance with this neo liberalistic economic system is preached as the only possible solution and the saviour of mankind is making me sick. And I say this even though I voted for the FDP. In my opinion their reforms are not neo-liberalistic as some tried to make voters believe.
Regarding the distribution of ministries and the SPD getting the so called key ones: I do not thinks that it really matters much which party heads which ministry. This is a coalition after all, they cannot make changes on their own there. If anything I think that the SPD will regret the decision to take on the troublesome labour and finance ministries as they will get most of the blame if the situation does not get better soon.
I am more fearful of the fact that neither the FDP nor the Greens are in the government protecting our civil rights and liberties.
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We have sworn, and not lightly. This oath we will keep. We are threatened with many evils, and treason not least; but one thing is not said: that we shall suffer from cowardice, from cravens or the fear of cravens. Therefore I say that we will go on, and this doom I add: the deeds that we shall do shall be the matter of song until the last days of Arda.
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15 Oct 2005, 12:41
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#23
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Lonely analytic
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 2,390
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yahwe
We should build a bunker that we can all hide in whenever Texan re-apears with another of his pointless articles of extreme right wing opinion. Or at the very least a new smiley where the face is covering it's eyes with it's hands and slowly shaking it's head.
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Isn't that scary mother****er actually a police officer or something? I mean, come on, what's that all about etcetera.
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For real
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15 Oct 2005, 13:37
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#24
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WANNASEEMYNEWCHAINSAW
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Éire
Posts: 2,738
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Re: The people of Europe have voted for paralysis – and perhaps obliteration
*sigh*
Oh noes! Journo's being alarmist?! Surely not!
The EU will collapse into an old folks home and American and China, with their brash 80's style slick back hair cuts and pin-stripe shirts will devour us all!
AAAAAaaaaaaghh!
*takes his suicide pill now*
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I came, I saw, I shouldn't mix pleasure with carpentry.
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