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Unread 3 Feb 2006, 16:05   #1
wu_trax
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[economics]the state of the us-economy

If there is anyone around who cares, I 'stumbled upon' this 'rant'

Surely it looks a bit overdramatic, but in the basics it is what ive been thinking for a few years now. Is the world going to end or will China be able to take over when the us-economy collapses in itself?
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Unread 3 Feb 2006, 16:40   #2
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

i hope the world ends
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Unread 3 Feb 2006, 16:54   #3
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

The article is strange and difficult to read. In answer to your question on China's ability to take over from the US economy.

Well its a tricky question. There is already a lot of economic hardship in the United States as evidenced by the condition of the people in New Orleans. So when people talk about the US economy collapsing if we are we talking about the slump in profits of a handful of large corporations then I can't say I would be losing any sleep. Alot of people are running out of money so for them economic collapse is a reality. The US economy is being run poorly, but it still has massive productivity and that doesn't disappear overnight. What seems to be key is that the US government doesn't seem particualrly interested in their economy. Joseph Stiglitz estimated that the war in Iraq cost over a trillion dollars, but the US goverment and the corporate agenda seem to have shrugged it off. All I seem to hear about recently is the huge transfer of federal money to large corporations through construction contracts and the like, but they seem to be handled in a short termist, get rich before the bubble bursts kind of way.

What is really happening it seems is that all the money is going into Chinese companies. In fact most of the growing companies in China are foreign owned. This is a somewhat obvious outcome though. The way you become a rich investor is putting your money where the growth is. It is amusing to me that the Prime Minister talks of facing the challenge of globalisation and facing up to the growth of India and China, whilst all along watching European and US capital flood to South East Asia.

Of course what will slow growth is the decline in access to resources. China is unlikely to keep growing at its current pace for very long, the problem is that the European and US reaction to this is as usual to panic, at least in public. In private all the elites are quietly moving their money out of the economy.

Apparently the UK economy has been growing at a great pace, but wages haven't been rising much at all, meanwhile house prices have risen exponentially, energy prices are up, it costs more to run a car, taxes are higher, food prices are still very expensive as are clothes, personal debt is way up and saving is way down, many are watching their pensions getting stolen from them. So everyone is poorer when it comes to the essentials, but we can get electronic goods really cheaply, so its a healthy economy.

I imagine the story is not to different in the US which has managed to get its biggest asset, its vast military strength, caught up in Iraq and out of the way, all the time watching Latin America and other parts of the world beginning ot do their own thing. What will be the reaction? Well in a few years they will wake up to this and panic and a lot of poor people are gonna pay for that mistake.

It is wrong to assume that the interests of the US and Chinese economic elites are opposed, they are largely made up of the same people.

This is kind of what the article says. The US government isn't telling the truth about the economy because it just doesn't care to.
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Unread 3 Feb 2006, 17:14   #4
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Tip: Look at the saving rates in the USA (and the rest of the anglo-saxon world for that matter). Then look at who is buying up US federal bonds.

China's BNP has been growing with about 9% for the last 20 years. Estimates say it will continue to do so for several years yet.
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Unread 3 Feb 2006, 17:22   #5
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Well I think one of the major barriers to Chinese growth will be cheap energy supplies and other resources drying up, plus also an ever growing middle class will start to want to participate in economic decision making.
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Unread 3 Feb 2006, 17:26   #6
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
Well I think one of the major barriers to Chinese growth will be cheap energy supplies and other resources drying up, plus also an ever growing middle class will start to want to participate in economic decision making.
I don't necessarily see this to be as big a problem as people claim. The energy prices were very high this year and much of the western world suffered a reasonably big slowdown as a result. However China and India seemed almost surprisingly unaffected by this. Their economies have both grown better than predicted.

Yes as time goes by both of their economies will become even more dependant on energy resources, but they are also investing a lot of resouces into alternative sources, perhaps more so than many western countries should be.
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Unread 3 Feb 2006, 17:26   #7
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
The article is strange and difficult to read. In answer to your question on China's ability to take over from the US economy.

Well its a tricky question. There is already a lot of economic hardship in the United States as evidenced by the condition of the people in New Orleans. So when people talk about the US economy collapsing if we are we talking about the slump in profits of a handful of large corporations then I can't say I would be losing any sleep. Alot of people are running out of money so for them economic collapse is a reality.
Those people still spend money though, they get that money by getting higher mortgages on their homes (which are now worth more money because of the bubble in house prices). If you want to compare that to the situation in UK, it's actually worse in the US, because, at least the Bank of England managed to calm down the house prices a little by raising interest rates in time. Greenspan just ignored the whole problem.
If you then also look at the trade deficit with Asia, you can get really scared about the whole situation. Basicly the US buys cheap goods from Asia (especially China) with dollars it borrows from China. The US gets free goods and free money, the Chinese get nothing. While this may look like a good thing for the US, everyone can see that this can't be a stable long term situation.
What I'm wondering about right now is what will happen when the US-consumers stop spending. China would loose its most important market and I'm not really sure it can compensate for that with domestic demand or shipping their stuff toe Europe / Japan, especially if you consider another article I read a while ago which stated that a large part of the recent economical recovery in Germany and Japan is actually based on strong chinese demand for capital goods from these countries.
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Unread 3 Feb 2006, 18:03   #8
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Yes genius, but obviously at some stage you reach a point where ends don't meet any more. Also most people don't own their own home, so they don't benefit at all from the house price rise, except perhaps to watch their rent go up. I live in London, you do not want to be talking about other people's rediculous house prices.

In terms of the US trade deficit, I am not scared at all, why are you scared? What do you get care if the yanks **** up their economy. If I were you I'd be more worried about how the ECB is ****ing European growth.

It would be easy for the Federal government to divert more real money to its consumers and invest more in its production but it chooses instead to let it leak out of the country. The short terms problems of a consumer spending slowdown would be a restructuring of investment which would cause hardship for a lot of people. However in the long run perhaps the US government might consider turning the tap off corporate subsidy and putting a bit of money the way of its citizens.

To be honst Wu trax you spend far too much of your time worrying about meaningless numbers, you sound like a speak-your-weight machine when it comes to economics. You should be focusing on people's quality of life. You talk about higher mortgages as if people are happy to keep on borrowing so they can fuel the consumer boom. People buy what they want but their wages have to rise as well. At the moment, as your article suggests, there is a slowdown and inflation is up so whatever the growth and investment statistics say are kind of unimportant if its just large corporations passing money around each other.

You should know by now that 60% of capital flows are simply one corporation transfering money to itself in another country, so nothing has grown, but its counted as growth. Its nonsense, you need to grow up and start looking at economics properly.

Its the same with the Chinese owning Government bonds, you are talking as if American investors care whether its CHina gorwing or America growing, as long as the numbers are going up their happy.
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Unread 3 Feb 2006, 19:23   #9
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
Yes genius, but obviously at some stage you reach a point where ends don't meet any more. Also most people don't own their own home, so they don't benefit at all from the house price rise, except perhaps to watch their rent go up. I live in London, you do not want to be talking about other people's rediculous house prices.

In terms of the US trade deficit, I am not scared at all, why are you scared? What do you get care if the yanks **** up their economy. If I were you I'd be more worried about how the ECB is ****ing European growth.
Why I care about the yanks? Because when they are gone as consumers the whole world economy is going to be in a lot of trouble and I dont really see what the ECB or anyone else can do about it.
Quote:
It would be easy for the Federal government to divert more real money to its consumers and invest more in its production but it chooses instead to let it leak out of the country. The short terms problems of a consumer spending slowdown would be a restructuring of investment which would cause hardship for a lot of people. However in the long run perhaps the US government might consider turning the tap off corporate subsidy and putting a bit of money the way of its citizens.
It (Well, the Federal Reserve, not the US government) has been diverting lots of money to consumers in the last 10-15 years, that's what caused the whole problem in the first place.
Quote:
To be honst Wu trax you spend far too much of your time worrying about meaningless numbers, you sound like a speak-your-weight machine when it comes to economics. You should be focusing on people's quality of life. You talk about higher mortgages as if people are happy to keep on borrowing so they can fuel the consumer boom. People buy what they want but their wages have to rise as well. At the moment, as your article suggests, there is a slowdown and inflation is up so whatever the growth and investment statistics say are kind of unimportant if its just large corporations passing money around each other.
With low interest rates and rising house prices they actually are happy about their higher mortgages. Yes, their wages have to rise aswell, unfortunatly they don't, that's why the whole situation appears to be so unsustainable.
Quote:
You should know by now that 60% of capital flows are simply one corporation transfering money to itself in another country, so nothing has grown, but its counted as growth. Its nonsense, you need to grow up and start looking at economics properly.
What?

Quote:
Its the same with the Chinese owning Government bonds, you are talking as if American investors care whether its CHina gorwing or America growing, as long as the numbers are going up their happy.
So what? I dont care much about investors, my point is that at the moment I think neither will be growing when the US-consumers stop spending more money than they actually have.
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Unread 3 Feb 2006, 23:26   #10
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

i think the main problem is that when you talk about economics you don't appear to know what you are talking about. You look at the wrong econmic indicators and you have blind faith that in the market place if you do X then Y happens, didn't you miss the bit where that never actually worked.

Lets put another way. You are talking about the US federal reserve giving money to consumers, but you are talking about a relatively select group of consumers who benefit significantly from cuts in mortgage rates.

Here are some more important economic indicators. If the US Government had diverted the money they put into the Iraq war and the money they spent on tax cuts for the wealthy, then the US would have an amazing social security system. We are talking a trillion dollars of investment going straight into the pockets of a large number of people. So you can talk all the shit you like about the federal reserve going into consumers pockets but go and tell that to the millions of Americans without health insurance, or job security, or a proper house. You see when these thigns exist you know that there already is a recession, just becasue the numbers are OK it doesn't mean shit. Christ its like talking to a child.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 00:51   #11
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
i think the main problem is that when you talk about economics you don't appear to know what you are talking about. You look at the wrong econmic indicators and you have blind faith that in the market place if you do X then Y happens, didn't you miss the bit where that never actually worked.

Lets put another way. You are talking about the US federal reserve giving money to consumers, but you are talking about a relatively select group of consumers who benefit significantly from cuts in mortgage rates.

Here are some more important economic indicators. If the US Government had diverted the money they put into the Iraq war and the money they spent on tax cuts for the wealthy, then the US would have an amazing social security system. We are talking a trillion dollars of investment going straight into the pockets of a large number of people. So you can talk all the shit you like about the federal reserve going into consumers pockets but go and tell that to the millions of Americans without health insurance, or job security, or a proper house. You see when these thigns exist you know that there already is a recession, just becasue the numbers are OK it doesn't mean shit. Christ its like talking to a child.
You dont make much sense today, first you ask me why I care about the yanks and then you tell me that I should worry about the whole population. To those outside the US only the people who profit from the housing bubble are important, because only they create demand for goods. If they suddenly stop buying stuff, the world economy is in trouble.
Yes, the US has a rather poor social security system, but that's their problem and it's hardly anything new. If you want, try to talk to your average redneck about how public healthcare is a good idea or why you would expect any decent society to help those people who can't help themselves instead of letting them become homeless or take three jobs for the minimum wage. I promise you, you wont get very far. I know all that, but it's not the issue here.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 02:02   #12
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

America isn't going to go broke. We have always had our fair share of poor people and we always will, though what constitutes poverty has changed over the years.

The American economy is unlikely to collapse anytime in the near future.

However, the Chinese economy is probably the economy of the future, overtaking and surpassing the rest of the world in the medium future. Not unlike the American economy surpassing the British economy. it didn't mean that the British economy collapsed.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 02:19   #13
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

In response to Wutrax

Well in the short term the world might be trouble as things adjust but its important to understand that much as they would like you to believe the global economy isn't dependent on a bunch of middle class yanks and in relatively short time the market would adjust. it seems like a very short sighted view of global economics. If these people have no momey then it is elswhere, if they do have money, but they aren't spending then it is invested so first of all its not like the momey has disappeared. Secondly if there is such a alrge quantity of US consumer capital, how come they are borrowing so much? That sounds firstly like a bubble to me and secondly it means that things were going fine before. So I am asking why you care and the answer seems to be that you imagine for some non-obvious reason that the world economy is dependent on the whims of the American consumer.

Teh social security system is an example, its not important where the money goes, simply to realise that that despite your faith in the power fo American consumer spending, far greater amounts of money are being squandered, which reveals to us what a paperbag the whole American economic model is.

As for making generalisations about rednecks, well I would like to see your evidence. As it happens Americans do seem to want healthcare:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/...lth-poll_x.htm

"By almost a 2-1 margin in this poll, 62% to 32%, Americans said they preferred a universal system that would provide coverage to everyone under a government program, as opposed to the current employer-based system."

But its interesting that you cry about the decline in consumer spending and say that's our problem but when you come to social security, that's their problem. Which is it? Its the same money right? I am not really sure what your objectives are from the US economy.

In response to DDA:

I completely agree, although i think the way the US economy is being handled at the moment means that a lot of people are already feeling what in ordinary times would be called a recession. Its easy to say, oh there will always be poor people, but we have to ask why these people aren't progressing in an alledgedly vibrant economy.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 07:53   #14
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

I think it's sad that the Federal Reserve (and its counterparts in other countries) are allowed to exist outside government control. Inflation and the "business cycle" are just euphemisms for printing too much money, then contracting it so you and your rich friends can get richer buying up property and stock for pennies on the dollar. They have no loyalty to their respective countries, only to the almighty dollar, pound, euro, etc.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 12:19   #15
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Well the US and UK governments are no better, but at least they are mildly accountable. However of course ina real sense the Governments have not relinquished economic power. Government's make spending decisions which have much more impact than the money supply, and of course they control taxaxtion. In terms of loyalty, well there are different groups in society, so being loyal to country doesn't mean anything. when making such deceisions. I have heard it suggested that the ECB, which has much more discretion than the federal reserve, is deliberately keeping European growth low in its slavish anti-inflationery policies. However that policy is directed by the European governments, that what they asked it to do.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 13:09   #16
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
In response to Wutrax

Well in the short term the world might be trouble as things adjust but its important to understand that much as they would like you to believe the global economy isn't dependent on a bunch of middle class yanks and in relatively short time the market would adjust. it seems like a very short sighted view of global economics. If these people have no momey then it is elswhere, if they do have money, but they aren't spending then it is invested so first of all its not like the momey has disappeared.
And you talk about my oversimplified view on economics...
Yes, the money is elsewhere, it's at the chinese central bank and not doing much really, besides beeing lended again to americans who then buy more chinese stuff.
Quote:
Secondly if there is such a alrge quantity of US consumer capital, how come they are borrowing so much? That sounds firstly like a bubble to me and secondly it means that things were going fine before. So I am asking why you care and the answer seems to be that you imagine for some non-obvious reason that the world economy is dependent on the whims of the American consumer.
They are borrowing because money was cheap. My 'non-obvious reason' why this means trouble is that american consumers consume quite a large part of the global production. Every half-sane economist in the world knows that.
Quote:
Teh social security system is an example, its not important where the money goes, simply to realise that that despite your faith in the power fo American consumer spending, far greater amounts of money are being squandered, which reveals to us what a paperbag the whole American economic model is.

As for making generalisations about rednecks, well I would like to see your evidence. As it happens Americans do seem to want healthcare:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/...lth-poll_x.htm

"By almost a 2-1 margin in this poll, 62% to 32%, Americans said they preferred a universal system that would provide coverage to everyone under a government program, as opposed to the current employer-based system."
whatever, i talked to some and they all seemed to be completly nuts, so i gave up. anyway, thats not the issue here.
Quote:
But its interesting that you cry about the decline in consumer spending and say that's our problem but when you come to social security, that's their problem. Which is it? Its the same money right? I am not really sure what your objectives are from the US economy.
Is this really so hard to understand? Even if only the top-two-percent of the american population would consume that large part of the global production while the rest is close to starving to death, it would be the consumption of those two percent i would worry about. I wouldnt care about the problems of the other 98%. It's their problem, after all, they elected that nutjob in the first place.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 13:20   #17
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

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Originally Posted by Cuddley_Battleship
I think it's sad that the Federal Reserve (and its counterparts in other countries) are allowed to exist outside government control. Inflation and the "business cycle" are just euphemisms for printing too much money, then contracting it so you and your rich friends can get richer buying up property and stock for pennies on the dollar. They have no loyalty to their respective countries, only to the almighty dollar, pound, euro, etc.
If anything a central bank should be removed as far as possible from government controll. The temptation for politicians to give out presents to win elections is far too great. A central Bank should fight inflation and not try to make economical policy, thats what we elect politicians for.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 14:17   #18
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Quote:
Originally Posted by wu_trax
And you talk about my oversimplified view on economics...
Yes, the money is elsewhere, it's at the chinese central bank and not doing much really, besides beeing lended again to americans who then buy more chinese stuff.

They are borrowing because money was cheap. My 'non-obvious reason' why this means trouble is that american consumers consume quite a large part of the global production. Every half-sane economist in the world knows that.

whatever, i talked to some and they all seemed to be completly nuts, so i gave up. anyway, thats not the issue here.

Is this really so hard to understand? Even if only the top-two-percent of the american population would consume that large part of the global production while the rest is close to starving to death, it would be the consumption of those two percent i would worry about. I wouldnt care about the problems of the other 98%. It's their problem, after all, they elected that nutjob in the first place.
Well if the money is going back into the US economy then there is no problem, if the money is spent in China then it is creating more Chinese consumers and furthermore since foreign investors own the major Chinese corporations, then the money keeps going round any way. Problem solved, we can all sleep soundly again.

You could present figures like any half sane economist. Lets see your stats please.

Good to see your hard nosed analytical work has had dividends. I provide a professionally produced poll, you spoke to some guys in a bar.

So essentially you are more of an accountant vthan an economist then. Here to look out for the wealthy elite and make sure they get their tax breaks:

What's the purpose of the economy Mr Wu_Trax?
WT: I don't know I guess it's to watch money.
So nothing to do with the distribution of resources then?
WT: Pish posh, what ever gave you that idea.
So how would you alleviate poverty?
WT: I'm sorry I don't understand what you're saying.
I mean how are people without access to resources supposed to get resources.
WT: No you've lost me there, maybe its a bad line
Its an internet forum.
WT: Oh look a tun.......

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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 15:15   #19
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
Well if the money is going back into the US economy then there is no problem, if the money is spent in China then it is creating more Chinese consumers and furthermore since foreign investors own the major Chinese corporations, then the money keeps going round any way. Problem solved, we can all sleep soundly again.

You could present figures like any half sane economist. Lets see your stats please.

Good to see your hard nosed analytical work has had dividends. I provide a professionally produced poll, you spoke to some guys in a bar.

So essentially you are more of an accountant vthan an economist then. Here to look out for the wealthy elite and make sure they get their tax breaks:

What's the purpose of the economy Mr Wu_Trax?
WT: I don't know I guess it's to watch money.
So nothing to do with the distribution of resources then?
WT: Pish posh, what ever gave you that idea.
So how would you alleviate poverty?
WT: I'm sorry I don't understand what you're saying.
I mean how are people without access to resources supposed to get resources.
WT: No you've lost me there, maybe its a bad line
Its an internet forum.
WT: Oh look a tun.......

First of all, I never said that Bush's taxbreaks are a very bright idea. They are not. However it doesnt matter one bit to the chinese if the evil, filthy rich who exploit the masses buy chinese big screen TVs or if you publicly hang all those evil CEOs and stock owners and let the suppressed, poor masses buy those big screen TVs. As long as they have their market, the Chinese couldnt care less.
Now, for the Chinese. Right now they have some 800 billion Dollars invested in US-assets. What could they possibly do with that? They can't cash it in, because who is going to want all that money? They cant buy american goods with it, because the Us simply doesnt produce that many goods any more. On the other hand they have large production capacities, which are used to produce stuff for american consumers. What are they goign to do with them if the US-demand stops? They cant just sell them on the domestic market, because the average chinese guy just isnt rich enough just yet to buy all that crap.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 16:25   #20
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

I am not arguing with you on those points, but you describe the problem yourself. You have clearly highlighted the problem of having too much capital concentrated in the hands of an elite, be it the Chinese and US political elites or the Chinese and US financial elites. So for instance in terms of consumer goods, no matter how rich you are you are only going to buy so many mobile phones, therefoe the rich aren't the market for mobile phones, the poor are and that is why they are such a phenomena. Similarly with a host of other consumer goods. If you are making products for a small elite you better hope they plan to own a lot of them. Alternatively if you have a system where money is more broadly distributed then you create your own markets.

So you have said that the Chinese will suffer if they have all this money, well they eventually they will have to spend that money propping up their economy, either sooner or later. One interesting feature of the Chinese economoy (and of far-eastern economies in general) is that they have stricter capital controls, and lo and behold they have a more secure a economy which grows quickly. Throughout this time the US and the UK have beeing going around the world telling everyone to have "free" markets and it has caused no end of strife. So as I said if the Chinese production runs of markets, foreigner investors will suffer as well because they will be desperate to get their money out, but it is just not as easy as that. If the Yuen runs into trouble maybe the Chinese will be greatful for all those dollars they have, they can do as Keynes suggests and spend their way out of recession, and they can do it with foreign currency.

Who knows you could get all twisted into knots over this, but what we have to do is look at the simple facts:

The US economy is not doing its job very well, but its huge and so won't flounder so easily.

China is reliant on Russian resources to keep its economy growing in the long term and they will pay the price for this.

China's middle class will not accept the totalitarian regime forever, not because of some innate desire for freedom but simply because it will be bad for the short term business interests of individuals.

The EU is also bizarrely powerful and with probably the best educated population in the world is more than capable of looking after itself.

US prosperity does not automatically equal European prosperity, although of course the two are linked.

You seem to think that I am arguing from an idealist perspective for what the economy should do for truth and righteousness but I am simply talking about what is good for business. Yes you can keep on churning the money around and around the US middle class and watch its perceived value grow, but if you ignore the basis of the economy, ie the basic distribution of resources then will find yourself in trouble. its just common sense. Similarly China can keep on over-producing for US markets, but that bubble will obviously burst if only because even the richest American only needs so many washing machines and so many i-pods.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 19:35   #21
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Quote:
Originally Posted by wu_trax
If anything a central bank should be removed as far as possible from government controll. The temptation for politicians to give out presents to win elections is far too great. A central Bank should fight inflation and not try to make economical policy, thats what we elect politicians for.
They don't fight inflation though. The US dollar stayed at the same value until the Fed was created in 1913, but now the dollar is worth $.02 in 1913 dollars. They are privately owned, for-profit ventures.

http://www.propagandamatrix.com/mult..._Part1_all.wmv
http://www.propagandamatrix.com/mult...e2_128KBps.wmv
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 19:38   #22
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
I am not arguing with you on those points, but you describe the problem yourself. You have clearly highlighted the problem of having too much capital concentrated in the hands of an elite, be it the Chinese and US political elites or the Chinese and US financial elites. So for instance in terms of consumer goods, no matter how rich you are you are only going to buy so many mobile phones, therefoe the rich aren't the market for mobile phones, the poor are and that is why they are such a phenomena. Similarly with a host of other consumer goods. If you are making products for a small elite you better hope they plan to own a lot of them. Alternatively if you have a system where money is more broadly distributed then you create your own markets.
I not sure who you mean be elite. The house owners in the US here is some link with some information on the situation, although its mainly about oil prices ?
Quote:
So you have said that the Chinese will suffer if they have all this money, well they eventually they will have to spend that money propping up their economy, either sooner or later.
I dont see how they can do that. They have some 800 billion dollars, they cant spend them in China, because what is the average chinese guy going to do with dollars? He needs yuans. They cant buy us-goods, because that would require to turn around the whole trade-situation between those two countries. They can sell them for euros or whatever, because then there must be someone else who needs those dollars and finally they cant buy amrican companies (and thus know-how) with it, which would certainly improove their economy, because Bush or his successor would pass a law against that, in a country as patriotic (here we would call it nationalism, but anyway) as the US such things dont go down too well with the voters.
Quote:
One interesting feature of the Chinese economoy (and of far-eastern economies in general) is that they have stricter capital controls, and lo and behold they have a more secure a economy which grows quickly.
As i see it asian countries have only been growing this much in the last decade, because of the strong demand from the US (and to a lower extend from europe) for cheap goods.
Quote:
Throughout this time the US and the UK have beeing going around the world telling everyone to have "free" markets and it has caused no end of strife. So as I said if the Chinese production runs of markets, foreigner investors will suffer as well because they will be desperate to get their money out, but it is just not as easy as that.
If the Yuen runs into trouble maybe the Chinese will be greatful for all those dollars they have, they can do as Keynes suggests and spend their way out of recession, and they can do it with foreign currency.
True, which will cause even more trouble in the global economy.
Quote:
Who knows you could get all twisted into knots over this, but what we have to do is look at the simple facts:

The US economy is not doing its job very well, but its huge and so won't flounder so easily.
Im not really sure about that. And i've recently read quite a few articles about that housing bubble, which suggests that i'm not the only one who thinks so.
Quote:
China is reliant on Russian resources to keep its economy growing in the long term and they will pay the price for this.
No, China has been very busy in Africa and South America in the past years to secure resources from those areas.
Quote:
China's middle class will not accept the totalitarian regime forever, not because of some innate desire for freedom but simply because it will be bad for the short term business interests of individuals.
True, theres lots of corruption for example, which is not good for business. There is hardly any legal certainty when it comes to patents or whatever, and so on.
Quote:
The EU is also bizarrely powerful and with probably the best educated population in the world is more than capable of looking after itself.
It's late, i have to go, ill write more later, but powerful? sure, there is some economic power, but compared to the US im not sure. Our education here (that's Germany, not the EU) pretty much sucks, we didnt do much better than the US in the last OECD study. Scandinavian countries seem to have the best education systems, but they are rather small in terms of population.
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Unread 4 Feb 2006, 20:09   #23
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

One of the biggest problems the west (especially the US) faces is when brains from places like India and China and other Asian countries decide that they have similar or better prospects working in their home countries.

There is no imaginable way countries in the west can hope to compete with the hundreds of thousands of graduates that countries like China and India churn out each year, whether they are better educated or not.

One of the best ways to combat numbers is with innovation and ability. However again especially in the case of the US much of the innovation and ability that already exists comes from the foreign brains that are imported (due to wages and/or the fact that the educated/wealthy in these countries would rather be in the US/EU), rather than from their own locally brewed population. I believe that people underestimate this problem. Slowly we are seeing a growth in R&D in these Asian giants and this is going to hit the west where it hurts.

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Unread 6 Feb 2006, 01:15   #24
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy

Although I didnt read all the posts in this thread, looking at the article I have to say something. GDP growth have become like a panacea for every economy.Personaly I dont believe GDP continous growth is feasible for any national economy or the world economy. You cant grow all the time, people can produce to a certain level, even if you aid them with new technological tools there are limits, like resources, working hours etc. So prepare to see GDP decline, more important is the increase of the quality of life of the population than the index of the stock markets.
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