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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 21:46   #401
neroon
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

how much does CT have stocked tho? or Haven?
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 21:59   #402
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Forest View Post
Ultores Stockpile - 3,674,856,237

Two ticks ago, not including whats in production, which is over 1 bill more too
The res in prod can't be taken into consideration as (for example) two ticks ago all their prod could have been on its last tick, making the value gain represented by 'potential spending' to be basically null and void.

Even still, your 3,674,856,237 stockpile is worth 24,499,042 value (rounding up from .58, I can never remember if all of PA's figures are rounded down or not) as is, or 32,583,725 spent. Meaning if they spent, they'd only gain 8,084,683. Which, at this time, wouldn't put them into second.

And that's assuming that neither CT or HaveN had any saved res. Do you have the totals for these two alliances, or is your circa~ 8m figure meant purely as a 'scare statistic'?
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:11   #403
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

A 3.6b stockpile is worth 12m (24m -> 36m). And on average, res already in prod currently counts for 1/125th, ie halfway between resources in fleet and stockpiled resources. 1b in prod gives them another 2m score (8m -> 10m).

P.S. That assumes Forest's random number is right, and as you said, the stockpile of the other two alliances.

P.P.S. I assume Ultores is getting hit tonight?
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:11   #404
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Hmm. I thought it was unspent value * 1.33.

Your way makes more sense.
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:13   #405
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Why is kenny's figure different from yours?

So 12 mill + the seemingly now normal 8 mill a day gain on CT stick them 4 mill behind CT 2moro if they spent now?
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:13   #406
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

forest`s "facts" are still quite delusional..
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:16   #407
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

i dunno neroon, i actually think Forest changing his prediction to CT winning was a fail looking at how its going. There is enough roids left in CT for Ultores to keep on landing how they have for another 3 days. As i said they have caught up 8 mill a day on CT since they started attacking them minimum, 4 more days of the round plus any spending should see Ultores home for an insanely epic comeback!! Or does it just show up the lack of true opposition???
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:18   #408
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by t3k View Post
Hmm. I thought it was unspent value * 1.33.

Your way makes more sense.
Difference between /150 and /100 is 1.5!
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:24   #409
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Patrikc View Post
Difference between /150 and /100 is 1.5!
Yeah, I was working 'a third' in the wrong way. The difference is a third of the total value, but to work it back the way you add an additional 50% to the lower figure. Simple mistake!
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:26   #410
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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it's possible then that those players are consistantly successful, so we tend to end up helping them where we can, moreso than those players who don't have quite as much success. .
alternatively it could be that they are consistently successful because you keep "helping" them?

I just know that as fat as you guys usually are, when one of your biggest planets(let's say it has 3k roids) has maybe 30 fleets incs spread over 4 waves and it takes 20 fleets to cover those waves, would you not agree that it is better to instead use those 20 fleets and perhaps cover 8-10 waves on planets with 1500-2000 roids who have much smaller waves? Sometimes sacrifices has to be made for the greater good, certain people seem unwilling to make those sacrifices...
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:29   #411
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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certain people seem unwilling to make those sacrifices...
That's PA in a nutshell these days though for the most part.
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:32   #412
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

[quote=neroon;3216956]forest`s "facts" are still quite delusional..[/Ultores


They are spot on, I had my bitch scan every ult planet
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:33   #413
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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They are spot on, I had my bitch scan every ult planet
And what are the figures for CT/Haven?
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:39   #414
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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That's PA in a nutshell these days though for the most part.
No it's not.
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 22:40   #415
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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And what are the figures for CT/Haven?
Substantially less,
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 23:09   #416
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

===================================
Ultores Stockpile - 3,674,856,237
Ultores Production - 1,184,149,722
-----------------------------------
Ultores Hidden Score - 12,249,521
===================================
===================================
Conspiracy Stockpile - 1,750,271,417
Conspiracy Pruduction - 403,955,057
-----------------------------------
Conspiracy Hidden Score - 5,834,238
===================================
===================================
HaveN Stockpile - 1,394,636,511
HaveN Production - 501,989,000
-----------------------------------
HaveN Hidden Score - 4,648,788
===================================

there you go!

And yes i had fun P scanning the world!
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Unread 16 Jul 2012, 23:35   #417
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

.cookie Baddars doing the boring work and representing it a way that everyone can understand
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 09:28   #418
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

so after all that, currently (according to the figures) ultores has 7mil "stealth" score (if thats the top 50 ult planets, and not the entire alliance). This will grow a little each tick they have a roid lead. so in reality CT have a 14mil score lead currently.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 10:28   #419
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Baddars' score calculations were incorrect. With those numbers, Ultores had 14.6m value to gain, HAvEN 6.6m and CT 5.6m. Using the numbers from midnight last night, that puts Ultores on 316.8m, haVEn at 317.4m and CT at 333.4m; 16.6m to go.

I deliberately did not mix Baddars' (old-ish) numbers with current scores because it distorts the picture; who knows what prods have come out since then.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 11:57   #420
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Tightest final tick since r27?
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 12:52   #421
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk View Post
Baddars' score calculations were incorrect. With those numbers, Ultores had 14.6m value to gain, HAvEN 6.6m and CT 5.6m. Using the numbers from midnight last night, that puts Ultores on 316.8m, haVEn at 317.4m and CT at 333.4m; 16.6m to go.

I deliberately did not mix Baddars' (old-ish) numbers with current scores because it distorts the picture; who knows what prods have come out since then.
Im sure there is someone who still thinks the earth is flat, but given the current situation those numbers will tell us that Ult will be winning
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 13:04   #422
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

much can happen in 3 days
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 13:16   #423
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by neroon View Post
much can happen in 3 days
No it cannot.
Im gonna quote myself from last round.
"Mz should stick to trolling.
Looking through post, quoting, trying to find condtradicions, looking for spelling errors, linking to wikipedia for explainations of words, trying to look smart and witty is what he does best.
He should clearly stay away from what ever concerns the game, and not try give his scientifical knowledge to determinaine a winner a shot.
If he realy knew anything about how the game works, he would be screaming out loudly that Ultores is running away with the victory, with ease"
His numbers might be correct, but for me it looks like he is trying to downplay the Ultores landslide victory once again.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 13:45   #424
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
If he realy knew anything about how the game works, he would be screaming out loudly that Ultores is running away with the victory, with ease"
His numbers might be correct, but for me it looks like he is trying to downplay the Ultores landslide victory once again.
I think you misunderstand the meaning of the word "ease", 17mil behind and 3 days left is a big margin to catch up on, so everyone knows that no ally here is going to win by a large margin (with ease) it will be close no matter who gets it. If anything haven are being downplayed as they are still a decent ally and not a huge amount behind ct. I know that b-bitcher will completely disregard this or more than likely become confused after the first couple words but i still wanted to have a say
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 13:54   #425
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Knight View Post
If anything haven are being downplayed as they are still a decent ally and not a huge amount behind ct.
I'm not so sure. They have less score than CT, so they need to keep hitting them in order to overtake them. However, they have fewer roids than Ultores, so they need to switch targets before they're overtaken. Whichever target they pick, at best, they'll stay second, and possibly even third. Both CT and Ultores have better cards right now, imo.

P.S. BloodyButcher is a moron.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 14:01   #426
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk View Post
I'm not so sure. They have less score than CT, so they need to keep hitting them in order to overtake them. However, they have fewer roids than Ultores, so they need to switch targets before they're overtaken. Whichever target they pick, at best, they'll stay second, and possibly even third. Both CT and Ultores have better cards right now, imo.

P.S. BloodyButcher is a moron.
Yeah guess you are right there, specially about bitcher
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 14:17   #427
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
No it cannot.
Im gonna quote myself from last round.
"Mz should stick to trolling.
Looking through post, quoting, trying to find condtradicions, looking for spelling errors, linking to wikipedia for explainations of words, trying to look smart and witty is what he does best.
He should clearly stay away from what ever concerns the game, and not try give his scientifical knowledge to determinaine a winner a shot.
If he realy knew anything about how the game works, he would be screaming out loudly that Ultores is running away with the victory, with ease"
His numbers might be correct, but for me it looks like he is trying to downplay the Ultores landslide victory once again.
mz is giving the facts and calculates very precisely, but u must also understand, that when the other factors kick in, then the results will be different

250 ticks ago it was mission impossible for ultores to win this round.. talk whatever u want, but we were so sure of not having a chance, that one of our members promised to pay for everyone`s credits next round if we did :P it was mission impossible!

today we can go to KIA and see what has happened past 4 days, CT has lost 55k roids and tens of millions of value due to crashes in attack AND in defence.. could this be predicted? yes in some form.. but never did we think CT would be going in massacre style

250 ticks ago Ultores was not able to win, now we are able to scare u guys
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 14:20   #428
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Tightest final tick since r27?
Round 37?
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 14:25   #429
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by neroon View Post
we were so sure of not having a chance, that one of our members promised to pay for everyone`s credits next round if we did :P it was mission impossible!
That's what they were waiting for all along. A true masterplan!
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 15:21   #430
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

HaveN have given up, and they are helping Ultores to the victory and trying to get 2nd.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 17:22   #431
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Ultores now 2 mil behind Haven.
And pretty much as soon as they spend their stockpiles they'll be ahead of CT.

Why are people so stubborn that they want to allow Ultores a 6th win in a row? It's mind boggling, to say the least. All that work all round keeping them down so that we can stick our feet up our asses come the end of the round? The universe confuses me.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 17:29   #432
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Stylez1877 View Post
Ultores now 2 mil behind Haven.
And pretty much as soon as they spend their stockpiles they'll be ahead of CT.

Why are people so stubborn that they want to allow Ultores a 6th win in a row? It's mind boggling, to say the least. All that work all round keeping them down so that we can stick our feet up our asses come the end of the round? The universe confuses me.
A lot of our stock has been spent on incs i believe
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 18:02   #433
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Why are people so stubborn that they want to allow Ultores a 6th win in a row?
Could you please pm me and tell me the winning lottery numbers of the past 3 months? I'll share 50/50!
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 18:10   #434
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by neroon View Post
that one of our members promised to pay for everyone`s credits next round if we did :P it was mission impossible!
As soon as Clouds said that i knew Ultores would win, anything that puts him out of pocket is worth doing

(watch him crash his fleet on Friday to drop Ultores to 2nd!!!)


Stylez1877 it will be their 5th in a row not 6th. 6 in a row will depend on how seriously they take next round.


If i was in CT right now i would be feeling pig sick tbh, how many rounds in a row now have you have a big score and roid lead going into the final stages only to finish 2nd or 3rd? It must be sooooooo fustrating!! Kudos for coming back for more each round tho

My final prediction is:

1st Ultores
2nd HaveN
3rd Conspiracy
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 18:46   #435
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Round 37?
round 42?
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 18:51   #436
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Stylez1877 View Post
Ultores now 2 mil behind Haven.
And pretty much as soon as they spend their stockpiles they'll be ahead of CT.

Why are people so stubborn that they want to allow Ultores a 6th win in a row? It's mind boggling, to say the least. All that work all round keeping them down so that we can stick our feet up our asses come the end of the round? The universe confuses me.
I think the way CT last round and HaveN this round decided to hand the win over the Ultores just show us that alliances is more interested in avenging "betrayals" and NAP breaking than actualy stopping Ultores to win another easy victory
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 19:20   #437
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
I think the way CT last round and HaveN this round decided to hand the win over the Ultores just show us that alliances is more interested in avenging "betrayals" and NAP breaking than actualy stopping Ultores to win another easy victory

If im right in saying you were in FanG last round and CT this round, the 3rd alliance in each situation you just mentioned. Ultimately you will have been in the run away winning alliance that got taking down by an Ultores lead pwnage session on you. Dont you think now this has happened to you twice in a row that your veiws on the subject are warped (more than usual) and your not exactly unbiased in what you say.

And far as im aware there was no 'betrayal' or nap breaking from HaveN, they got hit first because they were harder to take down than CT and just jumped on the bandwagon after their pwning to get some easy roids.

And the 'petty behaviour' from CT last round that seems to gripe you so much comes from the alliance you have now joined!!!
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 19:55   #438
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Tbh at least haven are giving it a go for first now, they seem to know that if they hit ult then ct will win but if they continue to hit ct and hope that ct's attacks on ult pay off then there is a slight chance they would get it. This way they have a chance whereas hitting ult they definitely won't win, fair play to them for at least going for it rather than only caring about stopping ult and nothing else.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 19:59   #439
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
I think the way CT last round and HaveN this round decided to hand the win over the Ultores just show us that alliances is more interested in avenging "betrayals" and NAP breaking than actualy stopping Ultores to win another easy victory
this guy is officially unrepairable

i understand that its hard to be you, but get a grip at last? i mean, this is too ovbious troll, cmon!
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 20:01   #440
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

For god sake, Ultores is AHEAD of HvN, with more roids, CT is also AHEAD of with LESS roids, one of the alliance has 125k asteroids, the other has 65k asteroids, why on earth would HvN still continue to avoid Ult, when clearly, the best place to get roids atm is there?
They dont want to win, and by the looks of it, dont want CT to win neither.
Last round CT kingmade Ultores, by hitting FAnG for the last week none stop without caring for winning themself, this round HvN is kingmaking Ultores by hitting CT for the last week none stop seemingly uninterested in winning themself.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 20:16   #441
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
For god sake, Ultores is AHEAD of HvN, with more roids, CT is also AHEAD of with LESS roids, one of the alliance has 125k asteroids, the other has 65k asteroids, why on earth would HvN still continue to avoid Ult, when clearly, the best place to get roids atm is there?
They dont want to win, and by the looks of it, dont want CT to win neither.
Last round CT kingmade Ultores, by hitting FAnG for the last week none stop without caring for winning themself, this round HvN is kingmaking Ultores by hitting CT for the last week none stop seemingly uninterested in winning themself.
The flaw in what your saying is that CT still hold the value and score over ULtores, they still have more top 50 planets than Ultores, this is now 3 days to go, CT is easy roids combined with high xp for landing it. For HaveN hitting CT and landing is a far more practical way to win than attacking and not landing on Ultores.


CT 'kingmade' Ultores last round? HaveN 'kingmade' Ultores this round? DONT MAKE ME LAUGH. Ultores won and will most likely win again because they do everything 10x better than every other alliance around them. They have turned a 50k roid defecit into a 50k roid lead in 7 days, they have turned a 48 mill score deficit into 12 mill defecit and are now gaining on CT at a rate of 8 mill a day minimum. If by 'kingmaking' you mean CT being backwards in their setup and awful in their execution plus a HaveN ego trip provoking BABYLONS into action then yes they did. But we all know that CT and HaveN didnt kingmake anyone, they were distracted by the glory and took their boot off the neck of the enemy and that enemy took that boot and shoved it up their ass!!!
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 20:20   #442
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Knight View Post
Tbh at least haven are giving it a go for first now, they seem to know that if they hit ult then ct will win but if they continue to hit ct and hope that ct's attacks on ult pay off then there is a slight chance they would get it. This way they have a chance whereas hitting ult they definitely won't win, fair play to them for at least going for it rather than only caring about stopping ult and nothing else.
Cool propaganda bro.

2 1 Ultores 124347 70 209,829 6,408,636 320,431,820
3 1 HaveN 91835 72 150,350 6,405,889 320,294,453

Ultores are already ahead of Haven without spending their stocks and they have 40k more roids. How are Haven supposed to win without hitting Ultores?
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 20:27   #443
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Stylez1877 View Post
Cool propaganda bro.

Ultores are already ahead of Haven without spending their stocks and they have 40k more roids. How are Haven supposed to win without hitting Ultores?
What would hitting Ultores achieve? HaveN would land say 10% of attacks and yes they would get roids, but not big roids and they would definatly not get any XP on the smaller Ultores planets, where as if they hit CT they will land 70-80% of attacks and each roid will yeild more XP score gain because CT have had those 40k more roids making them value for 600 ticks
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 20:32   #444
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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What would hitting Ultores achieve? HaveN would land say 10% of attacks and yes they would get roids, but not big roids and they would definatly not get any XP on the smaller Ultores planets, where as if they hit CT they will land 70-80% of attacks and each roid will yeild more XP score gain because CT have had those 40k more roids making them value for 600 ticks
Smaller Ultores planets?

You realize how XP works, right? The more roids stolen the more XP. Currently CT has 65k asteroids. Ultores has 125k. I'm not sure how good you are at math, but the 200k average score difference isn't going to make up for the double asteroids difference when it comes to gaining XP. And I'm not sure if you noticed, but once 90% of the universe isn't hitting CT, they aren't going to land more than 10% of their attacks. Once everyone is on Ultores it'll be the same. You'll bleed roids, and you have a lot more to bleed my friend.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 20:57   #445
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

Do you actually play anymore? Have you played since the Rd 9 your sig suggests?

Do you know how bad CT are at defending? Do you know in comparision how good Ultores are?

Ultores had 11 nights of negative roid gains this round all bar one was below 5%, the higher one was 6.7%. Yes i know that theres more roids now than before but surely its all relative with percentages. Ultores had 3-4 alliances hitting it for a week and then CT and bandwagoners hitting for another 3 or so.

In constrast CT has had 4 days of major incommings this round, they have had 6 days of negative roid gains. 2 have been 1-2% and then the other 4 have read as 15.9, 15.7, 11.7 and 12.6.

If CT have no roids left then how come every can seem to cap over 10% of them daily??

I know how XP works and hitting and LANDING (probably a 90% chance on CT if your not hitting a top 3 ranked player atm) a high valued planet for 400 roids is far better than attacking a lower value/score Ultores planet and having a 50% chance of landing it.

Better to go and get these roids from an easy source that provides a decent enough XP kick than from one that is tougher and less rewarding.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 21:05   #446
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Stylez1877 View Post
You'll bleed roids, and you have a lot more to bleed my friend.
Kaiba is not Ultores.

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Ultores are already ahead of Haven without spending their stocks
The stocks have been spent, hence us being ahead of Haven now.
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 21:19   #447
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

while ct hasnt done that yet.. so :P
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 22:33   #448
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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Originally Posted by Kaiba View Post
What would hitting Ultores achieve? HaveN would land say 10% of attacks and yes they would get roids, but not big roids and they would definatly not get any XP on the smaller Ultores planets, where as if they hit CT they will land 70-80% of attacks and each roid will yeild more XP score gain because CT have had those 40k more roids making them value for 600 ticks
thanks for responding to that, saved me the trouble
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Unread 17 Jul 2012, 22:37   #449
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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thanks for responding to that, saved me the trouble

There is absolutely no way Haven gets #1 without attacking Ultores. How do you propose they catch up? CT are behind in roids and ahead in score. Ultores are WAY ahead in roids and ahead in score. You think they're going to take 40k roids away from CT while Ultores take 0? It's 100% unrealistic and you're only supporting it because it gives Ultores a guaranteed win.
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Unread 18 Jul 2012, 00:02   #450
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Re: Round 47 Predictions

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There is absolutely no way Haven gets #1 without attacking Ultores. How do you propose they catch up? CT are behind in roids and ahead in score. Ultores are WAY ahead in roids and ahead in score. You think they're going to take 40k roids away from CT while Ultores take 0? It's 100% unrealistic and you're only supporting it because it gives Ultores a guaranteed win.
you missed my point of previous post, i said that they have a 'better' chance of #1 by hitting ct, they wont catch ct if they just attack ult with nearly no gain thats a certainty, at least hitting ct gives them a slight chance (no matter how small that chance is) you never know, Ult could possibly lose out from ct hitting them. CT do have the value lead remember so their attacks won't be weak.
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