MAD in regard to nukes

for those of you who don't know, MAD stands for "mutual assured destruction"

now take this scenario:

Say we come to a stage (EDIT: HYPOTHETICALLY if you may, for those who, believe NK does not have nukes, but may do in the future), where North Korea does have nukes, that can possibly hit the usa.

i) USA declares war on NK

ii) NK threatens to nuke the USA if the USA attacks NK, conventionally or not

iii) USA threatens to hit NK if they dare to nuke the US mainland

iv) NK realise that they have maybe one or two nukes that can hit the USA, while the USA has thousands that could hit NK. The USA can wipe out NK, while NK would only do some damage to the USA without totally wiping out the country.

v) NK thus, threaten China that they will nuke the mainland (where they can hit more easily) if the USA attacks them. They also have more nukes that can hit China, and cause more damage. Of course China has enough to destroy NK, but China doesn't want to get hurt because of american aggression towards NK

vi) China tells the USA that if they attack NK, NK will attack China. China does not want any losses, so threatens the USA that if the USA attacks NK, China will have no choise but to nuke the USA, because USA attacking NK will cause inevitable harm to China.

vii) Realising that China has enough power to cause almost equal damage to the USA as the USA can to China, it decides not to attack NK in the end, in fear of bringing the whole world to the brink of MAD

[NK, can threaten many countries, not just China for example. These countries then use the MAD threat to stop any war]

We thus have to ask that apart from the threat of the proliferation of nuclear technology meaning that the tech gets into the hands of terrorist organizations that would hold the world for ransom, maybe the nuclear powers especially the USA and the UK, fear that if other countries obtained these WMD, especially the nuclear kind, maybe their conventional weaponry becomes obsolete. They can't threaten countries with nukes because of the fear of being hit back themselves.

We all know that Nukes are a barganing power, all the nuclear capable countries have slightly more respect in the world, only because they have the power to destroy the world. Now imagine if nukes got spread around the world. With MAD looming over everyones head (and assuming they didnt get into the hands of terrorists - that would use them to cause massive death), but into the hands of governments, then maybe the USA and the UK can't throw their imperialistic weight around and threaten other countries to behave the way they want them to. Perhaps this is the reason why the USA is so unwilling to attack NK especially considering there is a big chance that they have nuclear capabilities.

What do you think?

Zar

[Scoot951]

I can't imagine China rolling over because the Koreans said so.


Besides, we could still nuke NK and China far, far more than the 2 of them could us.

[Bunga]

There is no chance that North Korea have nuclear capabilities at the moment.

Originally posted by Scoot951
I can't imagine China rolling over because the Koreans said so.


Besides, we could still nuke NK and China far, far more than the 2 of them could us.

it#s not about rolling over. Its about the threat of them being hurt for something they would rather not get involved in. They don't want to get nuked by NK, even knowing that they could destroy NK also. So they threaten the USA in hope that it will make the americans not attack NK.

A very similar scenario was met in the movie wargames (although not explained)

Zar

Originally posted by Bunga
There is no chance that North Korea have nuclear capabilities at the moment.

thats not the point of this debate. I'm saying hypothetically speaking and using NK as an example. The main debate comes after the example

Zar

[Judge]

Zaratul: then maybe the USA and the UK can't throw their imperialistic weight around and threaten other countries to behave the way they want them to

That is a rather bold statement, what evidence do you have that the US/UK have imperialistic tendancies towards any country?

[Scoot951]

Originally posted by Zaratul
it#s not about rolling over. Its about the threat of them being hurt for something they would rather not get involved in. They don't want to get nuked by NK, even knowing that they could destroy NK also. So they threaten the USA in hope that it will make the americans not attack NK.

A very similar scenario was met in the movie wargames (although not explained)

Zar

It is rolling over. "Come protect us or we'll kill you." If China gave into blackmail from a nation a tiny fraction of it's strength it'd become a laughingstock. Every nation with a nuke would be using it to get at the US.

Originally posted by Judge
That is a rather bold statement, what evidence do you have that the US/UK have imperialistic tendancies towards any country?

Go away Judge. I'm just expressing my feelings and opinions. I knew that if anyone was going to comment on that statement on this board, it would definately be you, sandsnake or mrl_j.

Typical!

Zar

Originally posted by Scoot951
It is rolling over. "Come protect us or we'll kill you." If China gave into blackmail from a nation a tiny fraction of it's strength it'd become a laughingstock. Every nation with a nuke would be using it to get at the US.

aha! Now see where we're getting at... The problem is that very few countries have Nuclear Capabilities and they wouldn't risk getting themselves destroyed in order to destroy the USA at the same time. As time progresses however and hypothetically nukes spread, and it falls into the hands of governments who dont like the usa, and which the usa would in normal circumstances threaten (iran, nk etc...) what would happen then?

When coming to mass destruction, China wouldn't let a couple of million of its own people die, just to prevent it being laughed at. Especially if China fears American aggression in the region will bring instability

Zar

[Vermillion]

The day that North Korea threatens to Nuke China, and China believes them, is the day Pyong Yang vanishes in a 10 megaton heatflash.

Firstly, though the two countries do not get along very well, North korea knows that its only potential ally is China, counting on their regional megalomania to keep the US from getting to strongly involved in the region. They will do ntohing to damage that relationship.

If they did, well... China as a nation is dedicated to national survival. If threatened with nuclear attack, China first reacts by cutting off all trade with NKorea. NKorea suddenly has no food or natural resources, and will collapse as a state in short order unless they make friendly with the Chinese.

But if push comes to shove, China willl respond with overwhelming force if it feels it has no choice. One night two or three dozen NKorean radar sites would be hit by Chinese anti-radiation missiles, and shortly thereafter both Pyong Yang and wherever the NKorean primary nuclear research site is (Trust me, the Chinese know) turn into radioactive dust.


China would certainly never threaten the US based on the mewling of some third-world power who may or may not have a couple of low-kilotonage nukes to its name.

[Judge]

Originally posted by Zaratul
Go away Judge. I'm just expressing my feelings and opinions. I knew that if anyone was going to comment on that statement on this board, it would definately be you, sandsnake or mrl_j.

Typical!

Zar

You are quite free to express your opinion, as I am quite free to pick holes in it.

If you do not want comment on your opinion, then refrain from posting it.

As to your argument, it is rather circular, in that China would not be influenced by anyone in regard to deploying WMD's against another state, based on a threat from a third party.

They would just call NK's Bluff, and or Blow the hell out of them.

Originally posted by Vermillion
The day that North Korea threatens to Nuke China, and China believes them, is the day Pyong Yang vanishes in a 10 megaton heatflash.

Firstly, though the two countries do not get along very well, North korea knows that its only potential ally is China, counting on their regional megalomania to keep the US from getting to strongly involved in the region. They will do ntohing to damage that relationship.

If they did, well... China as a nation is dedicated to national survival. If threatened with nuclear attack, China first reacts by cutting off all trade with NKorea. NKorea suddenly has no food or natural resources, and will collapse as a state in short order unless they make friendly with the Chinese.

But if push comes to shove, China willl respond with overwhelming force if it feels it has no choice. One night two or three dozen NKorean radar sites would be hit by Chinese anti-radiation missiles, and shortly thereafter both Pyong Yang and wherever the NKorean primary nuclear research site is (Trust me, the Chinese know) turn into radioactive dust.


China would certainly never threaten the US based on the mewling of some third-world power who may or may not have a couple of low-kilotonage nukes to its name.

Ah but i said hypothetically. Given time north korea will expand its arsenal of Nukes (if at all it has any atm) to quite a few.

It is also not neccessary if the countries get along or not. I have read somewhere that an ex-general of some kind in Pakistan, when interviewed said that he very nearly considered nuking India when they were at a strangle-hold. His reason was that, India has a great future ahead of them, Pakistan through all its recessions and trouble has a troubled one, if any at all. India has much much more to lose from a war involving nukes than Pakistan does. Agreed Pakistan would be wiped out, but so would Indias potential.

So same thing applies here, If china strangled NK to death by cutting food supplies, then NK could attack China. China has much more in its future than NK does and thus more to lose.

If you say that china relies on national survival, wouldn't the threat of losing the cities of Beijing, and Shanghai to nukes from NK (hypothetically) be a shock to the country? THey would do everything to prevent this from happening, but knowing that NK might attack them - wouldn't it be better to either convince the usa not to attack NK, or if the USA does not back down, have no choice but to force them to stop by having the threat of nukes hanging over their heads also?

China would obviously do this, making calculations that the USA would back out of a war, because it would not tolerate suffering casualities in its own country, especially numbering millions...

and in address to that last sentance of yours, it is irrelevant if NK has nukes or not, i just used that as an example

Zar

[Scoot951]

I don't think you grasp just how strongly China would react to such a threat.

Originally posted by Scoot951
I don't think you grasp just how strongly China would react to such a threat.

none of us know how china would react to be honest. We can only speculate. Hence this is a hypothesis... a mere scenario

Zar

[Bunga]

Originally posted by Zaratul
Perhaps this is the reason why the USA is so unwilling to attack NK especially considering there is a big chance that they have nuclear capabilities.

What do you think?

I think "definatly not" since NK do not have nukes atm.

[Vermillion]

Originally posted by Zaratul
So same thing applies here, If china strangled NK to death by cutting food supplies, then NK could attack China. China has much more in its future than NK does and thus more to lose.

If you say that china relies on national survival, wouldn't the threat of losing the cities of Beijing, and Shanghai to nukes from NK (hypothetically) be a shock to the country? THey would do everything to prevent this from happening, but knowing that NK might attack them - wouldn't it be better to either convince the usa not to attack NK, or if the USA does not back down, have no choice but to force them to stop by having the threat of nukes hanging over their heads also?

China would obviously do this, making calculations that the USA would back out of a war, because it would not tolerate suffering casualities in its own country, especially numbering millions...

And so, I cut and paste, and say again:

"The day that North Korea threatens to Nuke China, and China believes them, is the day Pyong Yang vanishes in a 10 megaton heatflash.

But if push comes to shove, China willl respond with overwhelming force if it feels it has no choice. One night two or three dozen NKorean radar sites would be hit by Chinese anti-radiation missiles, and shortly thereafter both Pyong Yang and wherever the NKorean primary nuclear research site is (Trust me, the Chinese know) turn into radioactive dust. "


The idea that China would risk a war they could not win with the US over an easily solvable skirmish with NKorea is silly. I am sure China would use diplomacy to convince the US not to atack NKorea. But as I said, if it came down to it, China would incinerate NKorea (very likely with no casualties whatsoever) before allowing NKorea to blackmail them.

A combination of Conventional, Nuclear and special forces would eliminate the NKorean leadership before they even knew they were in trouble.

Originally posted by Vermillion
And so, I cut and paste, and say again:

"The day that North Korea threatens to Nuke China, and China believes them, is the day Pyong Yang vanishes in a 10 megaton heatflash.

But if push comes to shove, China willl respond with overwhelming force if it feels it has no choice. One night two or three dozen NKorean radar sites would be hit by Chinese anti-radiation missiles, and shortly thereafter both Pyong Yang and wherever the NKorean primary nuclear research site is (Trust me, the Chinese know) turn into radioactive dust. "


The idea that China would risk a war they could not win with the US over an easily solvable skirmish with NKorea is silly. I am sure China would use diplomacy to convince the US not to atack NKorea. But as I said, if it came down to it, China would incinerate NKorea (very likely with no casualties whatsoever) before allowing NKorea to blackmail them.

A combination of Conventional, Nuclear and special forces would eliminate the NKorean leadership before they even knew they were in trouble.

just as plausible as my theory. You are an historian, not an expert on military tactics so don't patronize me

...not saying for one second that what i'm saying is likely to be carried out, it was just a scenario.

Zar

[Vermillion]

Originally posted by Zaratul
just as plausible as my theory. You are an historian, not an expert on military tactics so don't patronize me

...not saying for one second that what i'm saying is likely to be carried out, it was just a scenario.

I was not patronising you, and I am an expert in international relations, though thats more employment than academic training.

I know that there is no logical reason for China to simply submit to blackmail and threaten the United States.

Imagine if Some country in Afriuca was in trouble from its neighbour, and they told the US that they has large containers of Sarin in several major US cities. Would the US simply buckle and agree to interfere in the domestic situation? Can you imagine any scenario where a nation which fancies itself a superpower would let itself be blackmailed by threats of WMD?

China would retaliate, with special forces, then everything else if it became necessary. I see no plausible scenario whereby the Chinese leadership would threaten to Nuke the US out of fear of the North koreans.

Don't get me wrong, its an interesting scenario, and one worth discussing, just not a plausible one.

[Vanilla]

China doesn't want north korea having nukes any more that the USA does.

If NK threatened china with such an act china would send over 3 million of their screaming men to invade.

[Sandsnake]

If you're going to be hypothetical, at LEAST be real about it. No one wiht half a brain cell will even bother with your crackhead theory.

Originally posted by Sandsnake
If you're going to be hypothetical, at LEAST be real about it. No one wiht half a brain cell will even bother with your crackhead theory.

ha - an american telling me about braincells? LOL

Zar

[Vanilla]

Originally posted by Zaratul
ha - an american telling me about braincells? LOL

Zar

LOL I GEDDIT, HE'S DUMB BECAUSE HE'S AMERICAN!!!!1

Originally posted by Vanilla
LOL I GEDDIT, HE'S DUMB BECAUSE HE'S AMERICAN!!!!1

oooh never said that. I could mean anything..... i'm not going to give sandsnake any ability to unnecessarilyand unfairly ban me. Just retorting to his statement of me having a crackhead theory.

Zar

[Sandsnake]

Originally posted by Zaratul
oooh never said that. I could mean anything..... i'm not going to give sandsnake any ability to unnecessarilyand unfairly ban me.

too late.

[Zar]

Originally posted by Sandsnake
too late.

here is a pm i have written to sandsnake. as usual sandsnake has decided to well.... hmm

--

Sandsnake, that was hardly fair. Knowing you, you will give some totally unfair reason as to why you banned me usually dismiss it as "tough luck" or something.

I didn't say anything wrong. I incited as much "hatred" as you did. What gives you the right to call me a "crackhead"? i find that offensive. Yes it was indirectly said, but it is just as fair as me saying the american statement. I made NO reference to americans being idiots, that was the guy who posted below me.

For heavens sake - once in a while be fair. It will do you good.

Zar

---

unban me please, unless you give me a good reason why you banned me, and why your comment was any better than mine?

Zar

[Scoot951]

You start a debate, and when it doesn't go your way you attack your opponents based on their citizenship.




Obviously you'll find no sympathy here.

[Radical Edward]

the thing is about a hypothetical scenario, If you are going to use country names, you should do so with a full (or at least general) understanding od the way those countries react and would react over such a scenario. you can't just say "well maybe china wouldn't react like that" when someone with better knowledge of how china would react, comes along and rebuffs your suggestion. Furthermore, you have to accept the realistic situation, that if a small country blatantly threatens a big one, and the big one believes them, the big one turns the small one into a post apocalyptic nuclear wasteland.

Furthermore, if the US declared war on NK and knew that NK had, and was willing to use nukes, the US would flatten NK in a second. all the interesting diplomatic wrangle would come before this..... not after.

[Judge]

Originally posted by Zar
here is a pm i have written to sandsnake. as usual sandsnake has decided to well.... hmm

--

Sandsnake, that was hardly fair. Knowing you, you will give some totally unfair reason as to why you banned me usually dismiss it as "tough luck" or something.

I didn't say anything wrong. I incited as much "hatred" as you did. What gives you the right to call me a "crackhead"? i find that offensive. Yes it was indirectly said, but it is just as fair as me saying the american statement. I made NO reference to americans being idiots, that was the guy who posted below me.

For heavens sake - once in a while be fair. It will do you good.

Zar

---

unban me please, unless you give me a good reason why you banned me, and why your comment was any better than mine?

Zar

Tough Luck.

I doubt Sandsnake will see it your way.

[Zar]

Originally posted by Scoot951
You start a debate, and when it doesn't go your way you attack your opponents based on their citizenship.




Obviously you'll find no sympathy here.

no i start a debate, get a few worthy replies by you, vermillion and vanilla etc... even though they dont agree with me, they still create a debate.

Comes along Sandsnake, calls me indirectly a crackhead

there is a diff

Zar

[Radical Edward]

Originally posted by Zar

Comes along Sandsnake, calls me indirectly a crackhead

I thought banning you was completely unfair to be honest. especially considering his response. Had he made a decent reply and then you resorted to calling him dumb, then fair enough, but he didn't.

[Zar]

Originally posted by Radical Edward
I thought banning you was completely unfair to be honest. especially considering his response. Had he made a decent reply and then you resorted to calling him dumb, then fair enough, but he didn't.

thank you..

Zar

[MrL_JaKiri]

Originally posted by Bunga
There is no chance that North Korea have nuclear capabilities at the moment.

I thought there was a good chance?

[Scoot951]

Originally posted by MrL_JaKiri
I thought there was a good chance?

They are working on them, but it's generally accepted that it'll be a few years til they have them.

[Radical Edward]

Originally posted by Scoot951
They are working on them, but it's generally accepted that it'll be a few years til they have them.

with all them missing ex soviet warheads, they are abound to have a couple. least that Is what I heard..... they have a couple, but no means to produce any of their own.

[MrL_JaKiri]

Originally posted by Scoot951
They are working on them, but it's generally accepted that it'll be a few years til they have them.

I thought the official line was that they could have them easily in under 4 months or something.

[lokken]

They've also got an insanely large and quite well equipped land army that the US would find difficult to counter.

[Radical Edward]

Originally posted by lokken
They've also got an insanely large and quite well equipped land army that the US would find difficult to counter.

the US has MOABs

[Mirai]

the moment NK threatens their closest ally, is the same moment their closest ally wipes them from existance.

[Tzencath]

ooo ooo ooo! i heard about this one, um, it was the cold war right?

[Mushroom]

since the average nuclear power plant produces about 100g of plutonium a year, it should take them a while to make enough to create a nuclear weapon.
That's assuming they don't have any already...

[MrL_JaKiri]

Why do you need plutonium?

[Judge]

Originally posted by MrL_JaKiri
Why do you need plutonium?

Why not?

It looks nice.

You can polish it and make it shiney.

and other stuff............

[Vermillion]

A few small things:

1) NKorea has a very large and modratly well equipped military, but their equipment is a generation old. They are less advanced than Iraq was in 1991, except in a few areas. Their tanks are older, their aircraft (a critical one) are all two generations removed. They only have 30 MiG-29s, the rest are all older models such as MiG-21s, which might as well be a Sopith Camel against the USAF. NKorea does not have the military capacity to resist the US, they would be wiped out easily in any conventional war.

2) Everyone agrees NKorea does not have atomic weapons. Everyone agrees NKorea is developing atomic weapons. Few agree on how advanced that program is. The shortest time was six months, and that was made about a month ago. Others say as long as 4 years. The general consensus is within two years. They do currently have the fissile materiel to make at lest 4 warheads, but that is very different from having the bomb. Furthermore, and first-generation bomb they make would have a yield of probably about 4-6 kilotons, a firecracker in the atomic world.

3) Lastly, banning Zaratul might have been a bit much. Making a statement like: "ha - an american telling me about braincells? LOL " to a Mod is... unwise at the best of times, idiotic at worst. However despite this, banning does seem a TOUCH extreme.