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Unread 30 Jul 2007, 23:15   #1
Monroe
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Attack Times

I've been watching what attack times allies choose to use and it's been an interested progression over the last couple of years. 4 years ago most attacks were launched 22:00 GMT, 2 years ago a lot of attacks were launched 3-4 GMT over the course of the last 4-5 rounds or so I've noticed it continue to shift forward, and now most attack seem to launch between 5-7 GMT, and I've seen some attacks launching as late as 12 GMT. While some of this shift is clearly because there is an advantage in landing last, I am beginning to wonder how long this slow shift will continue. Also I'm not sure the 'landing last is better' philosophy is entirely to blame for this shift. I wonder if some of the shift has to do with the changes to PA game demographics, or attack philosophies, or the simple change made to the game to allow prelaunches. I wonder if anyone else has noticed this slow shift, and if they have any better explanation as to why this is happening. I don't feel the shift is necessarily go or bad, but it'll be really funny (at least to me) on the day we've gone the whole 24 hour cycle are are back to launching attacks in the European evening.
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Unread 31 Jul 2007, 09:24   #2
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Re: Attack Times

heh. being in America, the attacks have gone at night from what i've seen. make a rule so i can sleep for a round w/o having to be up handling reporting for everyone since the Europeans are asleep! lol.
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Unread 31 Jul 2007, 09:51   #3
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Re: Attack Times

Four years ago most good alliances still started launching their first waves at 3am. Launching around 7am alliance def is likely to be tapped out. People are really just trying to find the optimal time to attack at but truth be told that's largely contingent on other factors and it's not going to be the case that the ideal time for everyone to launch at will be the same.
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Unread 31 Jul 2007, 10:31   #4
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Re: Attack Times

6 years ago, in round 4, Cray told me that CELL rarely launched before 6:55 CEST*.

In round 3, however, you had to be insane not to launch just before the game went down for burp tick, as you got a 20 minute tick when the game came back up.

On a whole, however, it's all about what you're trying to achieve. Plain gal raids are best launched late, so that people's fleets are out and unable to return in time. Alliance raids are best launched early**, so your own members don't have incoming already, and so that the targeted alliance loses initiative and spends their fleets defending.

If you're solo raiding, it's best to launch when you're awake, so you can recall/resend and reuse your fleet. Your fail rate will be higher when launching solo, but you can compensate for this with fakes and resending.

* Which was gametime back then.

** Initial launches early, probably good to have additional later launches/waves of course.
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Unread 31 Jul 2007, 21:41   #5
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
On a whole, however, it's all about what you're trying to achieve. Plain gal raids are best launched late, so that people's fleets are out and unable to return in time. Alliance raids are best launched early**, so your own members don't have incoming already, and so that the targeted alliance loses initiative and spends their fleets defending.
I'm going to disagree with you on Alliance raids, purely on the point that most top ally players attack with two fleets and defend with one regardless of whether they get incomming or not. I perfect example of why ally raids work just fine is CT, who afaik launches the latest attacks of the bunch atm, yet they seem to be doing just fine right now. So launching ally attacks late is not always a significant handicap, unless you want to infer they would be kicking butt this round if they launched earlier?
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Unread 31 Jul 2007, 22:26   #6
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Re: Attack Times

well if the waves they purposefully put in front of them to draw def didn't crash on defense (thus dropping the target's value, and stealing a few roids in most cases) then by the time they landed they probably would be getting more score / xp / value out of their late attacks.
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Unread 1 Aug 2007, 01:08   #7
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Re: Attack Times

Wouldnt launching in the middle be best? Because then much of the defence has already been soaked up, but you tend to be first into the waves that actually land, thus the highest roid caps are directed to you, rather than later roid caps which are smaller?
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Unread 1 Aug 2007, 04:55   #8
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
I'm going to disagree with you on Alliance raids, purely on the point that most top ally players attack with two fleets and defend with one regardless of whether they get incomming or not.
In fact, a lot of top players recall their attacks should they get incomings and perform inter-galaxy defence maneuvers. It's really case-dependant, and definately not a "most".
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Unread 1 Aug 2007, 07:29   #9
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
I'm going to disagree with you on Alliance raids, purely on the point that most top ally players attack with two fleets and defend with one regardless of whether they get incomming or not. I perfect example of why ally raids work just fine is CT, who afaik launches the latest attacks of the bunch atm, yet they seem to be doing just fine right now. So launching ally attacks late is not always a significant handicap, unless you want to infer they would be kicking butt this round if they launched earlier?
Comparing current alliances to 'optimal' alliance behavior is pretty ludicrous.
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Unread 1 Aug 2007, 12:40   #10
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Re: Attack Times

i've not landed an attack sent after 6 am, but landed a lot when sent between 3 and 4 am... the main problem is never ally def, but gal def.
I have the feeling it's the semi active planets which are the main threat : they wake up comfortably around eta5/6 and have their 3 fleet slots ready for you
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Unread 1 Aug 2007, 12:45   #11
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Makhil
I have the feeling it's the semi active planets which are the main threat : they wake up comfortably around eta5/6 and have their 3 fleet slots ready for you
I wake up comfortably at 3-4am and I haven't launched an attack in two weeks or so!
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Unread 1 Aug 2007, 22:59   #12
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Comparing current alliances to 'optimal' alliance behavior is pretty ludicrous.
Why? Optimal behavior is by definition the behavior that leads to the best result. If an alliance is currently following a strategy that is leading them to a winning position, even if it is somewhat counter intuitive, why is it a bad comparison?
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Unread 1 Aug 2007, 23:04   #13
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
In fact, a lot of top players recall their attacks should they get incomings and perform inter-galaxy defence maneuvers. It's really case-dependant, and definately not a "most".
Well I calculate that in order to be in a t50 position in a non XP dominated round you need to launch on average somewhere between 1.5 and 1.75 attacker per day for the entire round. This is because unless you have some fore knowledge of who will and will not get defense it is tough to land more then 1 attack per night on average. Therefore in many cases (though certainly not all) a top player will need to keep attacking even if he gets incomming in order to get the XP and roids he needs to stay on top. That being said of course there are plenty of exceptions to the rule, but I feel my 1.5 to 1.75 number is about right. Therefore my original position of "most" (ie significantly over half) is an accurate description of the state of affairs.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 04:07   #14
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Re: Attack Times

Personally Ive been using the happy medium of 5am gmt launches for a good while now.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 05:27   #15
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Well I calculate that in order to be in a t50 position in a non XP dominated round you need to launch on average somewhere between 1.5 and 1.75 attacker per day for the entire round.
Care to share your calculations?
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 07:53   #16
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Why? Optimal behavior is by definition the behavior that leads to the best result. If an alliance is currently following a strategy that is leading them to a winning position, even if it is somewhat counter intuitive, why is it a bad comparison?
You are, of course, correct. But there's a clear difference between 'winning this' and 'theoretically optimal behavior which would have given the apriori maximized probability of winning the round'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Well I calculate that in order to be in a t50 position in a non XP dominated round you need to launch on average somewhere between 1.5 and 1.75 attacker per day for the entire round.
I have no idea how you came to this number, but under the assumption that by "average" you mean that this is a statistical figure of some sort, rather than a necessary criteria, you are again (probably) correct.

However, you have again drawn an incorrect conclusion from this. Consider:

Planet A, B and C are in the same galaxy. They have 2k roids each. Their fleets are big, so they usually get through on about 30-40% of their attacks. Each night they attack two targets of 500 roids each. Their expected cap: 300-400 roids with 2 fleets.

Assuming a roid saved is worth the same as a roid gained, the expected value of single fleet covering a wave of incoming from these planets on eachother is 1k roids for 2 fleets.

It should be fairly obvious that these planets are better off 3-fleet defending when they have incoming.

Many planets will cancel attacks, organize ingal defense, and then launch new attacks in the afternoon when their fleets have been freed up. These attacks will be recallable early in the evening if they're defended, freeing up the fleets for ingal defense again.

Out of curiosity, have you ever held a top planet or been in a top galaxy?
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 16:13   #17
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
You are, of course, correct. But there's a clear difference between 'winning this' and 'theoretically optimal behavior which would have given the apriori maximized probability of winning the round'.
I would be interested then to hear an explaination of what you feel the optimal behavior should be, and what evidence you base it on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
...Many planets will cancel attacks, organize ingal defense, and then launch new attacks in the afternoon when their fleets have been freed up. These attacks will be recallable early in the evening if they're defended, freeing up the fleets for ingal defense again.
In my experience what you say does indeed happened, but has been the exception rather then the rule. It is of course extremely case dependent, but
in many cases it makes sense to continue attacking, if a players attack fleets are currently undefended rather then attempt to defend unless coverage in guaranteed. Middle of the day solo attacks, at least in my experience, have had on average much poorer results then attacks launched within the normal attack windows. If however you have not found this to be true I would be interested to hear your thoughts on why you've been successful attacking outside the normal attack windows.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Out of curiosity, have you ever held a top planet or been in a top galaxy?
Yes I have finished in the t25 and have been in t10 galaxies half a dozen times. I have never won a round (I don't play hard core enough) or finished in the top galaxy, but I have been in the #2 galaxy at least twice (memory gets fuzzy after a while).
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 17:02   #18
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
In my experience what you say does indeed happened, but has been the exception rather then the rule. It is of course extremely case dependent, but in many cases it makes sense to continue attacking, if a players attack fleets are currently undefended rather then attempt to defend unless coverage in guaranteed.
when it's worth more score to defend with an attack fleet then it is to attack (as is often the case) then the majority of people will pull an attack fleet to do so.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Middle of the day solo attacks, at least in my experience, have had on average much poorer results then attacks launched within the normal attack windows. If however you have not found this to be true I would be interested to hear your thoughts on why you've been successful attacking outside the normal attack windows.
I don't think i've launched an attack before about 9/10 am all round tbh, and i've done surprisingly well randomly launching across one's cluster, though the -1 eta may be a bigger factor in that than the actual time of launch.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 17:26   #19
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Yes I have finished in the t25 and have been in t10 galaxies half a dozen times.
Just once in top100 though, at least during PAX?


Could you please elaborate to us the calculations you've made regarding the top50 planets? Being a mathematician I'm very eager to see the hard statistical side of things.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 17:55   #20
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
Just once in top100 though, at least during PAX?


Could you please elaborate to us the calculations you've made regarding the top50 planets? Being a mathematician I'm very eager to see the hard statistical side of things.
No, I always finish in the t200 at least, and I've been in the t100 at least 4 times since PAX (I played as a scanner from r14-r19).

Doing a hard calc I would agree with jester that on average you can land somewhere between 30-40% of your attacks. If you only launch one a day over the course of a 7 week round this means you've landed 17 attacks (assuming a 35% landing rate). If you have launched two a day you will land around 34 attacks over the course of seven weeks. If you launch on average 1.5 attacks a day you've landed roughly 25 attacks. If you look at the top planet right now (2.4.8) he has landed 34 attacks so far this round. If you work out the math on him, if he has been launching two attacks per day on average he has landed 42% of his attacks (at the high end of the estimate). The number two planet has landed 40% of his attacks assuming two attacks a day. So by those numbers (if you want to calc some more and show the results be my guest) my 1.5-1.75 range may in fact be low. But when you average it over the t50 as a whole I suspect it will be probably about right.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:14   #21
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Re: Attack Times

Once you have roids it's more important to keep them than to cap more ones if you gain more score with the defence than the attack. You can also use your fleet to help others by forcing people to spend or sucking in defence etc. You can land attacks at any time really, if you've noticed a good bunch of elviz's roidcaps this round seem to come after midnight and before 6am.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:27   #22
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Doing a hard calc I would agree with jester that on average you can land somewhere between 30-40% of your attacks
You are taking into account that the first week most top people three-fleet, and landing in the early week or two is significantly easier than it is after researches are done and practically everyone can do any hulls and full ETA?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
No, I always finish in the t200 at least, and I've been in the t100 at least 4 times since PAX (I played as a scanner from r14-r19).
Strange. Then you're just not marked down in the PAwiki. A little like Assassin. Lots of unmarked PAX top100 finishes.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:27   #23
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
I would be interested then to hear an explaination of what you feel the optimal behavior should be, and what evidence you base it on.
I base it on discussions with the best players I've known (Rob, Sid, JBG), and on experience of being on both the receiving and giving end of these sorts of attacks.

In my round 21 galaxy, which was in the runnings for #1 until we were put under a last week attack so massive it wouldn't have mattered when it launched, we tried to avoid launching attacks before 4-5am gmt (basically when we were getting up in the morning), because we had incoming almost every day, and thanks to having big fleets we could cover almost any incoming in one or two fleets. In fact, the scenario I sketched out above was based on 2:4 in round 21.

Yes, daytime attacks are less successful than nighttime attacks, but when everyone in the galaxy is pushing their HCT limit anyway, there's not a huge rush to get roids ASAP.

Quote:
If however you have not found this to be true I would be interested to hear your thoughts on why you've been successful attacking outside the normal attack windows.
Smart attacking rather than 'just' launching. Both audacious and straight forward fakes, inactive targets and recall/resends all increase the chances of getting through in the middle of the day.

Quote:
Yes I have finished in the t25 and have been in t10 galaxies half a dozen times. I have never won a round (I don't play hard core enough) or finished in the top galaxy, but I have been in the #2 galaxy at least twice (memory gets fuzzy after a while).
Thanks, it's good to know where you're coming from. Out of curiosity, what round did you end t25?
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:36   #24
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Thanks, it's good to know where you're coming from. Out of curiosity, what round did you end t25?
13. That seems to be the only top100 he's marked down for in PAWiki. You'd probably know better, owning the service and all, I just browsed quick.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:37   #25
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
You are taking into account that the first week most top people three-fleet, and landing in the early week or two is significantly easier than it is after researches are done and practically everyone can do any hulls and full ETA?
Yes because I include the first 3 days in my calc, and no one attacks at all then, so it averages out I think.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
Strange. Then you're just not marked down in the PAwiki. A little like Assassin. Lots of unmarked PAX top100 finishes.
I never announce my finishing place, and until you brought it up, I doubt anyone ever cared.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:39   #26
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
13. That seems to be the only top100 he's marked down for in PAWiki. You'd probably know better, owning the service and all, I just browsed quick.
13 was my t25 finish.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:48   #27
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
I base it on discussions with the best players I've known (Rob, Sid, JBG), and on experience of being on both the receiving and giving end of these sorts of attacks....
I was actually referring back to the original question in the thread, which is optimal attack times for allies, so if you care to comment on that I'd love to hear it.
The other methods you suggest for individuals are good ones as are a few other tactics (see my thread on game tactics), and can improve your chances of landing at odd times, no question about it.

Certainly also towards the end of the round the situation changes for top players as defending roids can become more important then stealing them (in a non XP round). But that is why my original comment was an average, because I assume that top players towards the beginning of the round almost always 2 fleet attack, and sometimes 3 fleet attack, and things slow down towards the end. So when you look at the overall average I think the range I am suggesting for number of attacks makes sense.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:49   #28
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
In which you ended top25 by ending 49th?
No if you look on the PA wiki you will see I ended 24th.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:49   #29
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Re: Attack Times

Out of curiosity, where are the other at least three top100 finishes in the PAX period? Can't find them.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:53   #30
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
Out of curiosity, where are the other at least three top100 finishes in the PAX period? Can't find them.
I can't honestly tell you, I don't keep track of my finishes. But it seems to me it's completely irrelevant to the discussion of this thread anyway.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 18:56   #31
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Re: Attack Times

You do realize, what an ass you make yourself appear like, when you exaggerate your record? It gets hard to tell when you're actually on facts and when you're just exaggerating something to make your point.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 19:03   #32
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
You do realize, what an ass you make yourself appear like, when you exaggerate your record? It gets hard to tell when you're actually on facts and when you're just exaggerating something to make your point.
I have made no purposeful attempt to exaggerate anything, you tend to not to want to believe me no matter what I say, so I have no need to prove anything to you.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 19:15   #33
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
You do realize, what an ass you make yourself appear like, when you exaggerate your record? It gets hard to tell when you're actually on facts and when you're just exaggerating something to make your point.
You do realize, what an ass you make yourself appear like, when you make remarks like that when you present no proof whatsoever someone is exaggerating something?
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 19:18   #34
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
No if you look on the PA wiki you will see I ended 24th.
Yeah, I saw I'd somehow misread and deleted my post...
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 20:00   #35
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
You do realize, what an ass you make yourself appear like, when you exaggerate your record? It gets hard to tell when you're actually on facts and when you're just exaggerating something to make your point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
I have made no purposeful attempt to exaggerate anything, you tend to not to want to believe me no matter what I say, so I have no need to prove anything to you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerbie2
You do realize, what an ass you make yourself appear like, when you make remarks like that when you present no proof whatsoever someone is exaggerating something?

Given that the PA Wiki has the top 100 planet ranks from every post-PaX round, exaggeration of records is fairly easy to spot /o\


EDIT: Jester, can you either unprotect the PA Wiki main page (spam ) or update it to add Rounds 20/21 to the 'Past Rounds' section?
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 20:05   #36
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Re: Attack Times

Apologies in advance for this slightly off-topic post, but since this forum has a couple of PAWiki readers/editors, I figured it's better to answer here than in PM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by furball
EDIT: Jester, can you either unprotect the PA Wiki main page (spam ) or update it to add Rounds 20/21 to the 'Past Rounds' section?
The main page is protected, but the pages that generate the actual content for the main page aren't. If you view source on the main page, it's explained in comments on that page.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 21:05   #37
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerbie2
You do realize, what an ass you make yourself appear like, when you make remarks like that when you present no proof whatsoever someone is exaggerating something?
You're joking, right? Oh. furball beat me to it.
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 21:12   #38
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Re: Attack Times

Does anyone have anything relevant to add to the actual topic in this thread, or should we move this thread to GD so Keizari can continue his efforts to discredit my knowledge of PA?
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Unread 2 Aug 2007, 22:32   #39
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Apologies in advance for this slightly off-topic post, but since this forum has a couple of PAWiki readers/editors, I figured it's better to answer here than in PM.

The main page is protected, but the pages that generate the actual content for the main page aren't. If you view source on the main page, it's explained in comments on that page.
Thanks, I've updated the wiki a bit.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Does anyone have anything relevant to add to the actual topic in this thread, or should we move this thread to GD so Keizari can continue his efforts to discredit my knowledge of PA?
You mean PD, surely. And there's a report post button especially for this sort of thing, so feel free to use it rather than complaining in the thread.
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 06:10   #40
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Does anyone have anything relevant to add to the actual topic in this thread, or should we move this thread to GD so Keizari can continue his efforts to discredit my knowledge of PA?
I'm still waiting for your reply to my post.
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 07:48   #41
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
If you look at the top planet right now (2.4.8) he has landed 34 attacks so far this round.
The averages for top50 for that time yesterday were 27 landed attacks, according to Sandmans. Then there's a probably little in and a little out regards to initiated roids and simultaneous landings, which the dump parser obviously doesn't pick up "properly". So probably 1.5-1.75 comes close assuming a 30%-40% success rate. Given, it's still .25-.5 off from 2, which gives you 9-17 days of not launching two fleets (well, 25% plus time not launching two fleets), which can probably be reasonably derived as beng the moments when the galaxy is under heavier incomings.

Why people should be cross-defending more, is, that it's a very proven valid tactic. It just requires a lot of effort from the galaxy, and occasionally fails because of that (given, my own galaxy at round 20 had a league of "names" but it still crumbled because nobody was arsed to organize the cross-defending ingal). When it works out, galaxies like the Ascendancy one back in round whatever it was, and round 17's toot/Tearz & Co., who live up to very high rankings with proportionally less alliance defences than the others do.
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 12:50   #42
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Does anyone have anything relevant to add to the actual topic in this thread, or should we move this thread to GD so Keizari can continue his efforts to discredit my knowledge of PA?
He's not discrediting your knowledge of PA, he's asking for proof of your allegation that you've been "top100 atleast four times during PAX", yet haven't shown any proof of this....

On topic..

I always found the best times to attack were mid-late morning, 07:00 - 11:00. Although it all depends on your targets circumstances as to how succesful you are..
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 16:07   #43
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
I'm still waiting for your reply to my post.
I did respond, but you probably lost it in the useless clutter that is in this thread. I basically said that I wasn't asking about individual attack preferences but ally attack preferences and was wondering what your thoughts were on optimal ally attack times, rather then individual attack times.
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 17:51   #44
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
I did respond, but you probably lost it in the useless clutter that is in this thread. I basically said that I wasn't asking about individual attack preferences but ally attack preferences and was wondering what your thoughts were on optimal ally attack times, rather then individual attack times.
Despite dropping names, I was not speaking to their individual habits at all.
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 19:55   #45
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Despite dropping names, I was not speaking to their individual habits at all.
Yes I understand that, that's not what I was driving at. The attack times for individual success is not necessarily the same as that of the attack times that are good for an ally as a whole. For example it may make sense for allies to launch somewhere between 4-6 GMT in order to have the greatest chance of success attacking, however for an individual player perhaps it's better to launch slightly later since most def will be soaked up in the ally attacks.

The original thought in the thread before it got all muddled in pointless bickering was that ally attack times are slowly shifting later and later. If this is true, is there really an 'optimal' attack time, or are attack times really arbitrary and mostly dependent on when an ally attacks relative to other allies and not any particular time of day?
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 19:59   #46
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Yes I understand that, that's not what I was driving at. The attack times for individual success is not necessarily the same as that of the attack times that are good for an ally as a whole. For example it may make sense for allies to launch somewhere between 4-6 GMT in order to have the greatest chance of success attacking, however for an individual player perhaps it's better to launch slightly later since most def will be soaked up in the ally attacks.

The original thought in the thread before it got all muddled in pointless bickering was that ally attack times are slowly shifting later and later. If this is true, is there really an 'optimal' attack time, or are attack times really arbitrary and mostly dependent on when an ally attacks relative to other allies and not any particular time of day?
From my observations attack times depend a lot on what the alliance wants to achieve. If it is just about simple galaxy raids (so, like this or last round) then it is most likely a time which caters most members best. Keep in mind that every alliance is simply a group of individuals playing together.

During a war, however, there is more likely to be constant 24/7 launching on an alliance's enemy (Launch early, launch often).
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 21:07   #47
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heartless
From my observations attack times depend a lot on what the alliance wants to achieve. If it is just about simple galaxy raids (so, like this or last round) then it is most likely a time which caters most members best. Keep in mind that every alliance is simply a group of individuals playing together.
So your saying that the time of day really isn't important at all, merely the active times of the attack group? So if I hypothetically put together an attack group that was made of all US players, if we wanted to do gal raids in the US morning, so around 15:00 GMT, it would make no difference on our effectiveness then if we launched at what seems to be the accepted attack time right now of 4-6 GMT?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heartless
During a war, however, there is more likely to be constant 24/7 launching on an alliance's enemy (Launch early, launch often).
While some allies certainly do this, is 24/7 raiding really effective? I don't have any numbers, but I would suspect that a constant stream of attacks would not really be effective. It might make sense to scatter raids over a wider range of times, that way to catch players who either couldn't launch at the normal times, or had to recall. I tend to believe that constant random incomming is not particularly effective as it is better to overwhelm defenses all at once when there are a limited number of players online then it is to scatter things out over a longer period of time.
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 21:48   #48
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
While some allies certainly do this, is 24/7 raiding really effective? I don't have any numbers, but I would suspect that a constant stream of attacks would not really be effective. It might make sense to scatter raids over a wider range of times, that way to catch players who either couldn't launch at the normal times, or had to recall. I tend to believe that constant random incomming is not particularly effective as it is better to overwhelm defenses all at once when there are a limited number of players online then it is to scatter things out over a longer period of time.
Siege wars in PA are not really about capping the roids. It's more about grinding morale. Lower morale, means lower member activity, which means less enemy fleets.

This whole topic is a fallacy, there are many things to take into consideration, many of which concern the time of day, but apart from habit that time is not in itself a concern.

A lot of it is about what other people do, when people will be able to launch and when trying to cap roids with straight up attacks, of course when you'll be least likely to meet defense will be a consideration.
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 21:55   #49
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Re: Attack Times

It depends on the target and how the target defends himself.
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Unread 3 Aug 2007, 23:23   #50
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Siege wars in PA are not really about capping the roids. It's more about grinding morale. Lower morale, means lower member activity, which means less enemy fleets.

This whole topic is a fallacy, there are many things to take into consideration, many of which concern the time of day, but apart from habit that time is not in itself a concern.

A lot of it is about what other people do, when people will be able to launch and when trying to cap roids with straight up attacks, of course when you'll be least likely to meet defense will be a consideration.
I don't see why the topic is a fallacy (definition of fallacy: a misconception resulting from incorrect reasoning), we may not be able to get a complete or perfect answer, but I think the topic is interesting and at least worth discussing. You seem to at least partially agree because you point out that which attack times leads to success is often inherently dependent on how others react. That does not mean that we can't discuss what those dependencies are, and how best one might exploit them to ones own advantage. For instance you said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
On a whole, however, it's all about what you're trying to achieve. Plain gal raids are best launched late, so that people's fleets are out and unable to return in time. Alliance raids are best launched early**, so your own members don't have incoming already, and so that the targeted alliance loses initiative and spends their fleets defending.
So clearly you believe that it's better to launch gal raids when others have already launched and ally raids launched early to gain the initiative over your opponents. These are interesting conjectures and they at least some validity, but then the question becomes what is early and what is late? Are these arbitrary terms, or should allies really be on a 22 hour attack schedule rather then a 24 attack schedule based on the idea that allies should have fleets out as much as possible and since BS take 21 ticks to do a full round trip, and allies should want to maximize fleets, they should run new raids every 22 hours rather then every 24 as they tend to do now. Or maybe they should run raids on 11 hour cycles, that way to accommodated as many different ally members as possible.
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