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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 00:53   #1
meglamaniac
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[Middle-east] Crisis update

Yeah I know, but there's not been much discussion for a while.

I just discovered this handy rundown of the day by day events. It's depressing really. Do Isreal really think they're acheiving anything here?

So far, they've killed over ten times more Lebanese civilians than Hezbollah have killed Israeli civilians. They've galvanised the entire arab and muslim world against them. They've bombed civilian targets. They've bombed ambulances, somehow mistaking them for mobile missile launchers. They've bombed the UN. They've even managed to piss off greenpeace by creating a huge oil slick after - surprise surprise - bombing a power plant.

Their only ally in the UN is the US, who will get bored eventually, and if a resolution is passed which is favourable to Israel then it doesn't stand a chance of holding. I can't see UN peacekeepers rushing in to secure the south after the "mistakes" so far, and there's no peace to keep anyway. Even if the Lebanese government agrees to it, Hezbollah won't. After the disaster in Iraq, in both real and political terms, the US and the UK are not going to be sending troops either, especially with the situation in Afghanistan deteriorating again, no doubt inspired by Hezbollah's success.

Israel will have to wake up to the pandoras box it's opened. It's not simply a case of having failed to do any serious damage to Hezbollah. They've increased support for them, increased global recognition of them, increased volunteers (with reports of university students from Iran actually leaving to join the fight) and no doubt increased sponsorship too from states such as Syria and Iran. And every day this goes on, Hezbollah's rockets go deeper into Israel and their numbers increase.

All this only serves to highlight how ineffective it is to use a modern army with all its bureaucracy and inflexibility while trying to chase down a relatively small number of armed men who are using guerilla tactics. Smart bombs are fine for destroying military outposts, but are useless against what basically amounts to an evolution of the motar launcher. It's all highly mobile, small, and easy to hide.

Israel really has managed to make itself a huge problem for years to come, and they're not merely losing the war; they've already lost. The real losers are the general population of Lebanon.
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Last edited by meglamaniac; 8 Aug 2006 at 13:57.
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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 01:12   #2
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Re: [Middle-east] Crisis update

Pretty damn well said, megla. Israel has dug a deep hole and forgot the ladders they need to get out of it. The little respect I had for Israel before this crisis is long gone now, and I sure hope the middle east will gather soon and show some force against IAF.

60 years ago we had Adolf Hitler, today we have Ehud Olmert.
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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 01:21   #3
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Re: [Middle-east] Crisis update

Agreeing 100%.
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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 08:57   #4
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Re: [Middle-east] Crisis update

Quote:
Originally Posted by meglamaniac
Their only ally in the UN is the US, who will get bored eventually.
This is the only part I disagree with.
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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 11:00   #5
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Re: [Middle-east] Crisis update

I agree with Stew. There's no chance in hell the US are going to "unally" Israel. Just imagine the outrage amongst all the jews in the US, it'd be political suicide as all presidents needs the support of the jews.
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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 11:34   #6
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Re: [Middle-east] Crisis update

The one thing Im miffed [thats putting it politely] is the bias the media are giving. The see Hezbollah as terrorists as there "rebelling" against a state and there own country has no "official" ties with them, therefore there classed as terrorists

And as all you ratings people know, terrorists = viewers!
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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 12:20   #7
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Re: [Middle-east] Crisis update

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudge
The see Hezbollah as terrorists as there "rebelling"
they're

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudge
against a state and there own country has no "official" ties with them
their

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudge
therefore there classed as terrorists
they're
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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 12:40   #8
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Re: [Middle-east] Crisis update

I wasn't saying the US will turn against Israel - just that there's only so long they can continue to support the Israeli offensive without losing face themselves. Sooner or later they'll press Israel into a ceasefire, and Hezbollah is unlikely to reciprocate.
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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 13:10   #9
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Re: [Middle-east] Crisis update

Quote:
Originally Posted by meglamaniac
Sooner or later they'll press Israel into a ceasefire, and Hezbollah is unlikely to reciprocate.
Why is that?

Hezbollah wants a release of prisoners. The major rocket launching started when Israel attacked Lebanon. Hezbollah has said already it is willing to go for a ceasefire if Israel stops the attacks.

An Israeli ceasefire represents a victory for Hezbollah.
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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 13:17   #10
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Re: [Middle-east] Crisis update

Hezbollah is highly unlikey to accept any peacekeeping force in Lebanon under the current proposals. The talk at the UN is all about buffer zones, which effectively means territorial loss to the Lebanese in southern Lebanon. Let's face it, Israel aren't about to give up any of their land for a buffer zone are they?

Hezbollah accepted the UN observation posts for the last 20 years or so partly because they were unarmed and had no real power, but mainly because if anything like this did happen, they were probably going to be more favourable to Hezbollah than to Israel. That is exactly what has happened. Quite apart from Israel bombing one of the observation posts, they've mainly served to highlight the excessive force Israel is using and the destruction of civilian targets - and it's all going down on record against Israel in one of the most, if not the most internationally recognised council of nations. Long after the media has forgotten all of this, those records at the UN will still be there.

An armed peacekeeping force is an entirely different proposition.
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Last edited by meglamaniac; 8 Aug 2006 at 13:24.
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Unread 8 Aug 2006, 14:26   #11
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Re: [Middle-east] Crisis update

Quote:
Originally Posted by meglamaniac
Hezbollah is highly unlikey to accept any peacekeeping force in Lebanon under the current proposals. The talk at the UN is all about buffer zones, which effectively means territorial loss to the Lebanese in southern Lebanon. Let's face it, Israel aren't about to give up any of their land for a buffer zone are they?

Hezbollah accepted the UN observation posts for the last 20 years or so partly because they were unarmed and had no real power, but mainly because if anything like this did happen, they were probably going to be more favourable to Hezbollah than to Israel. That is exactly what has happened. Quite apart from Israel bombing one of the observation posts, they've mainly served to highlight the excessive force Israel is using and the destruction of civilian targets - and it's all going down on record against Israel in one of the most, if not the most internationally recognised council of nations. Long after the media has forgotten all of this, those records at the UN will still be there.

An armed peacekeeping force is an entirely different proposition.
I agree. The Lebanese prime minister is doing his best to prevent a civil war by pulling the resolution to the lebanese/hezbollah side: withdrawal of israel from the south and the release of prisoners.

As it stands, there is little chance the resolution will be accepted by Lebanon or Hezbollah. Those drafting it, as George Galloway stated, have in their heads that Israel is the victim here, and the resolution should focus on the cessation of Hezbollah attacks.

They have successfully geared all ceasefire attention into preventing Hezbollah from re-arming, ignoring the fact that Hezbollah is attacking in response to Israel's attack. The focus here should not be to reduce Hezbollah's arsenal, but strip it of any reasons to attack Israel.
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