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Unread 25 Apr 2010, 18:49   #101
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk View Post
Hanzi, I think you missed the point of Golan's post.
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Unread 25 Apr 2010, 18:56   #102
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

Your problem is actually missing the basic point in my posts, which was that Apprime would unquestionably overtake Ascendancy, but until this happened there was no reason to downplay Ascendancys chances and make apprime look like an unstoppable force.
A possible situation would be Apprime overtaking Ascendancy, with a roidlead of 7k. Then a block hit Apprime and take away 5k roids, while Ascendancy cap 2k roids. In this situation both alliances would sit on the exact same score and roids. Until Apprime actually had overtaken Ascendancy, there was no reason to fill the forums with anti-apprime propagande.
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Unread 25 Apr 2010, 19:34   #103
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by HaNzI View Post
Your problem is actually missing the basic point in my posts, which was that Apprime would unquestionably overtake Ascendancy, but until this happened there was no reason to downplay Ascendancys chances and make apprime look like an unstoppable force.
A possible situation would be Apprime overtaking Ascendancy, with a roidlead of 7k. Then a block hit Apprime and take away 5k roids, while Ascendancy cap 2k roids. In this situation both alliances would sit on the exact same score and roids. Until Apprime actually had overtaken Ascendancy, there was no reason to fill the forums with anti-apprime propagande.
The politics were not built this way. They were built for stagnation at that time and still are - on what planet do you think that scenario is in any way probable?
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Unread 25 Apr 2010, 20:15   #104
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

Well, I was bored. So I traced it back another 132 ticks with 24 tick increments and made it into an Excel file. And added some other crap to make it clearer.

http://www.easy-share.com/1910034277...atapoints.xlsx
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Unread 25 Apr 2010, 21:38   #105
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

In fairness, Ascendancy kicked 2 people with a combined score of 4.5m. That was entirely unpredictable (even for people in Ascendancy) and not based on any data or argument you guys used to tell Hanzi he was wrong. Had things gone as you expected, his estimate would have been too low, rather than too high.

[edit] Never mind, I was just informed Apprime also kicked people, with about the same combined score. Even if it were unpredicted, it had no net influence.
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Unread 25 Apr 2010, 23:20   #106
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

The only valid argument for making an accurate prediction is based on roids and value, anything else is unpredictable factors that can go both ways. If the difference in income between alliance A and alliance B stays the same, then you have a linear graph and will be able to predict the exact tick where they will be equal. If this prediction fails, then it means something unpredictable has occured.

Ive made it a point in several posts, that my predictions were solely based on roids/value, nothing else. You still don't see that when you talk about score, it involves all predictable/unpredictable events over a certain time period.

Please keep basing your arguments on unpredictable events, it boosts my ego and i like it.

Its ****ing impossible to predict anything at all based on these graphs, because for all we know, someone does humanity a favor and drops a nuclear bomb on a certain Baltic country, effectively taking 30mill score away from Apprime. How is that for a prediction to slam in the table?


Also congratulations for missing the whole point with the prediction, to say that there was no need for any anti-apprime propaganda as long as Apprime was behind Ascendancy. Maybe it was a bit too good.
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Last edited by HaNzI; 25 Apr 2010 at 23:29. Reason: added a point:
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Unread 25 Apr 2010, 23:27   #107
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by HaNzI View Post
The only valid argument for making an accurate prediction is based on roids and value, anything else is unpredictable factors that can go both ways. If the difference in income between alliance A and alliance B stays the same, then you have a linear graph and will be able to predict the exact tick where they will be equal. If this prediction fails, then it means something unpredictable has occured.

Ive made it a point in several posts, that my predictions were solely based on roids/value, nothing else. You still don't see that when you talk about score, it involves all predictable/unpredictable events over a certain time period.

Its ****ing impossible to predict anything at all based on these graphs, because for all we know, someone does humanity a favor and drops a nuclear bomb on a certain Baltic country, effectively taking 30mill score away from Apprime. How is that for a prediction to slam in the table?

Please keep basing your arguments on unpredictable events, it boosts my ego and i like it.
Yeah man. Apprime's higher activity levels leading to them capping more roids and xp in the meantime really was just as likely as someone nuking lithuania.

To be honest that boosted ego of yours is probably more likely to be a brain tumour.
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Unread 25 Apr 2010, 23:30   #108
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by JonnyBGood View Post
Yeah man. Apprime's higher activity levels leading to them capping more roids and xp in the meantime really was just as likely as someone nuking lithuania.

To be honest that boosted ego of yours is probably more likely to be a brain tumour.
So while i make a prediction based on roids/value, you choose to add a little Jonnyflavor to your soup and claim that your monkey cant jump as high as mine?
There is nothing stopping Ascendancy from capping the same as Apprime.
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Unread 25 Apr 2010, 23:38   #109
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by HaNzI View Post
So while i make a prediction based on roids/value, you choose to add a little Jonnyflavor to your soup and claim that your monkey cant jump as high as mine?
There is nothing stopping Ascendancy from capping the same as Apprime.
Let me get this right. The only things, if we're trying to make a prediction, that we should consider in pa are roids/value? So pre-round, when nobody has any advantage, any prediction of any alliance to win is as good as any other prediction?



Edit: This is, honest to god, the worst argument I can remember encountering on AD. Most other arguments rely on obfuscating the truth or selective fact-picking but you're outright denying that any sort of factors like activity or previous history or fleet composition or player skill can be included in a prediction. A ten year old could tell you that's ridiculous.
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Unread 25 Apr 2010, 23:50   #110
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by HaNzI View Post
So while i make a prediction based on roids/value, you choose to add a little Jonnyflavor to your soup and claim that your monkey cant jump as high as mine?
There is nothing stopping Ascendancy from capping the same as Apprime.
Right, here's a graph showing Apprime versus THINLYVEILEDTHREAT from the position of near roid parity at tick 530, when the round settled into it's current political course.

Size growth shows general momentum. By "momentum" I mean general ability to cap roids on a regular basis, it can also be reflective of activity. The political situation at the time of your prediction was also pretty steady so we can't really say general politics changed to affect things. Particularly in a round as politically turgid as this one.

Both alliances have pretty steady rates of size growth, Apprime's being much greater than THINLYVEILEDTHREAT, because they have more momentum. The greater the gap in roids, the higher rate of value growth and as the round progresses, value becomes more influential with respect to score. Once again, score growth is greatly in favour of Apprime.

This is why Apprime were catching THINLYVEILEDTHREAT at an increasing rate. You can see this from the shape of the curves, which because both alliances don't kick many players or drop ****tons of value, are very smooth.

On that basis, you can look at sandmans in about 10 seconds and make an accurate prediction as to where both alliances are going to go. The entire basis of your analysis is wrong, which is why your conclusion is wrong.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 00:12   #111
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Let me get this right. The only things, if we're trying to make a prediction, that we should consider in pa are roids/value? So pre-round, when nobody has any advantage, any prediction of any alliance to win is as good as any other prediction?
A prediction is based on whatever you want it to be based on. The roidlead was 7k roids, which gives a steady growth. Unknown factors as mining bonus, number of mines, core research is likely to be equal.
If you do the job and find out exactly how much Apprime and Ascendancy makes, be my guest. It does however not change the fact roids/value is a solid, hardcoded and predictable feature that you can rely on.

You are free to base predictions on things like skill/activity/history, but then its not based on hard-coded features, but assumptions. I specifically said that my prediction was based on the roidlead, and i did not mix assumptions with facts. The only reason Apprime accumulated score faster then predicted was because it was a better alliance in that period of time. Both alliances had equal chances, but Apprime was better at getting roids/xp. At the same time both alliances kicked out members which influenced the scoregap greatly. Sadly someone used it as an argument to prove me wrong. Brainaids anyone?
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 00:21   #112
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

Graphs mean **** all lokken, it does not mean this will be the trend from now to ****ing forever. Ascendancy can get a grip and start performing better as of tomorrow if they want to. This will immediately change your precious graph and jizz on your assumptions. Thats the point.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 00:33   #113
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Graphs mean **** all lokken, it does not mean this will be the trend from now to ****ing forever. Ascendancy can get a grip and start performing better as of tomorrow if they want to. This will immediately change your precious graph and jizz on your assumptions. Thats the point.
It does when you're considering long term political trends that aren't going to change. Activity does not just improve 'overnight' particularly when alliance gets set into one pattern of activity, certainly not consistently. I think this is a fair assumption to make from my experience, because what you're suggesting is easier said than done. This round is one of the most stagnant ever, thus making predictions based on graphs much, much easier than normal.

If the political situation changed this is what would happen: Roid growths/losses of both alliances would probably change, and thus differences between roid growth would change, reflecting a change in score growth. The point is that in this period nothing of the sort happened, nothing was forseeably going to happen, nothing is likely to happen, which is why your 'nuclear' analysis doesn't really hold any weight. There is no Deus Ex Machina in the play here as you would like to pretend.

Things have been pretty set in stone for a while now, hence my fantastic prediction around that time. Unless of course Apprime don't have a NAP with Vision.
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Last edited by lokken; 26 Apr 2010 at 00:42.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 00:35   #114
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

Actually this is just too stupid, i no longer bother to reply on this matter.
Every single day I have to prove all my work/arguments with hard facts. Luckily i dont have someone telling me im wrong just because something unexpected happens, because that would be hilarious.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 01:23   #115
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

I think the whole issue is that you didn't expect it (while lokken & co did). Unless you take factors other than current score and current size into account, your predictions are always going to be wrong.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 01:49   #116
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

The problem you are having, Hanzi, is that you are simply confused about how probability works.

If two outcomes are possible, that does not imply they are equally probable. Even if they are the only two outcomes possible, say either App will overtake Asc or it won't, without specifying a timeframe, the outcomes still have different weights, different probabilities. By identifying patterns and trends and identifying different factors contributions to these trends, we can assign them different predicting values. By calculating the risks involved in each assumption, we can asses the likelyhood of a default, and control for it.

The key here is large data sets. Where as it's impossible to say what will happen any given tick, any more than it's possible to say how long any given person will live, reality still tends to follow a bell-curve and regress towards the mean, allowing insurance companies to predict the average lifespan of their policyholders by controlling for risk factors, and allowing us to predict how an alliance will perform over a period of time.

In essence, you made a similar prediction, however you did not control for most variables, and you used only one point of data. Had you included multiple data points, you would have deduced that there was a discrepancy in your calculations, and you wouldn't have made such a foolish prediction as a specific tick.

This is all basic statistics.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 13:00   #117
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

So much BS about non important things. Congrats VSN, you win this round and thats only things what matters Awesome move to nap ND and secure the spot. Nicely played round and well done politics to nail it in the end.

Not like some who started naping everyone (even naped the main competitor for win) and yet failed (HI ND)

Once again congrats VSN, enjoy your win and let losers make schemes who will finish 3-4-5-9999, like it matters lol.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 13:52   #118
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by rikavela View Post
Not like some who started naping everyone (even naped the main competitor for win) and yet failed (HI ND)
ND NAPed Vision after they'd lost the #1 spot. I don't think anyone in ND actually thought that that move helped in terms of getting #1. Much like other alliances this round they'd decided to abandon aiming for #1 and secure their alliance's position through other means.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 13:57   #119
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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ND NAPed Vision after they'd lost the #1 spot. I don't think anyone in ND actually thought that that move helped in terms of getting #1. Much like other alliances this round they'd decided to abandon aiming for #1 and secure their alliance's position through other means.
Securing position? Secured position doesnt get you win does it ?

If they wanted to NAP someone, they should have worked with some enemy on common goal ie taking VSN down. Risking instead of making stalemate...
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 14:24   #120
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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I don't think anyone in ND actually thought that that move helped in terms of getting #1.
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Securing position? Secured position doesnt get you win does it ?
Always good to read before you post.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 14:45   #121
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by rikavela View Post
Securing position? Secured position doesnt get you win does it ?

If they wanted to NAP someone, they should have worked with some enemy on common goal ie taking VSN down. Risking instead of making stalemate...
Had you read the whole thread, you'd also know that there wasn't anyone to work with.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 14:56   #122
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Always good to read before you post.

Why make the move which doesnt help you win? Desperate ? :/
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 14:56   #123
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Had you read the whole thread, you'd also know that there wasn't anyone to work with.

Well that part i can understand. No one likes to cooperate with crashers
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 18:36   #124
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Why make the move which doesnt help you win? Desperate ? :/
Well, desperate in the sense that they'd given up on #1 yeah. But seeing as some of us did that pre-round I can't exactly see a moral high ground here.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 18:38   #125
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

As funny as you think that was, rikavela, NewDawn aren't the only alliance to have suffered crash-induced setbacks this round.

In fact, by having the largest tag count, they are statistically more likely to suffer this kind of occurrence than say... anyone else, for example.
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Unread 26 Apr 2010, 23:16   #126
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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As funny as you think that was, rikavela, NewDawn aren't the only alliance to have suffered crash-induced setbacks this round.

In fact, by having the largest tag count, they are statistically more likely to suffer this kind of occurrence than say... anyone else, for example.

As serious as you think this stuff is, Kenny, i was just make a joke on that. Everyone crashes, such things happen if you are not tied to your planet.... But no one actually cares much its just good for a couple of laughs and in day or two no one will remember anyway...

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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 10:19   #127
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

I don't think anything PA is serious, I just don't think you're funny.

Ok, so the first part of that sentence was a lie - you're seriously not funny.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 10:43   #128
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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I don't think anything PA is serious, I just don't think you're funny.

Ok, so the first part of that sentence was a lie - you're seriously not funny.


It wasnt me who was funny sweetie, it was Sun tzu and his crash!
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 14:11   #129
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by rikavela View Post
Why make the move which doesnt help you win? Desperate ? :/
I could speculate wildly about this - maybe they didn't think that there was anything that they could do to help them win at that point so the decision was based on some other reasoning.

None of this has got anything to do with the fact that you replied to JBG stating that you didn't think NDs actions were helpful in getting them first place, when he had explicitly stated in the very post you replied to, that he didn't think that was their motivation!
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 14:31   #130
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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I could speculate wildly about this - maybe they didn't think that there was anything that they could do to help them win at that point so the decision was based on some other reasoning.

None of this has got anything to do with the fact that you replied to JBG stating that you didn't think NDs actions were helpful in getting them first place, when he had explicitly stated in the very post you replied to, that he didn't think that was their motivation!
But whats the point of playing and making such large force if you dont plan to win? Thats what i dont get... Either as top ally, top alliance, top planet... anything. But if you dont play to win its waste of time. Unless you are playing out of boredom...
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 14:39   #131
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

People play games to have fun. Even though winning is more fun, you can have fun without winning. ND have always been a community driven alliance so they'll probably tell you that winning was not their main motivation for recruiting all the players they did.

Another "reason" (which has already been suggested but you choose to ignore) could be that they did intend to win but then realised they couldn't when they vision overtook them and there was nobody that would help them (whilst Vision certainly had ties with at least Apprime) so decided not to fight a fruitless war in which they'd get beaten to a pulp and make the round terrible for their members.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 14:54   #132
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by rikavela View Post
But whats the point of playing and making such large force if you dont plan to win?
Couldn't agree more.
This is one of the reasons why I personally no longer play.
To answer the question I guess you'll need to ask those that do.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 14:59   #133
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

If Newdawn would've gone for the win, it would have put them under considerably more stress than it has this way. And at the time they had some serious member management issues (including but not limited to the Subh 'bg').

I doubt anyone would have given Newdawn more than a 10% chance of winning the round back then, I myself didn't think they any chance to be honest. (then again, I still thought DLR had a decent chance back then!)
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 15:10   #134
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

I have to be careful what I say, because I still have a lot of affection and respect for ND, but I don't think they have had much "will" to win a round of PA for quite some time now - its possible they are still recovering from the effort that was required to win their first round!
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 15:15   #135
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

I wonder if anyone really does intend to hurt Vision... perhaps they'd ok with losing some value themselves in any big-wave attacks they launch.

Even if we were to 'cover' the waves by traditional standards, if Whoever were really out to hurt us then we'd need to be ready to take a hit to ensure bullying tactics weren't effective.

Just so long as we don't blink first, we'll be fine.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 15:17   #136
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by rikavela View Post
But whats the point of playing and making such large force if you dont plan to win? Thats what i dont get... Either as top ally, top alliance, top planet... anything. But if you dont play to win its waste of time. Unless you are playing out of boredom...
Historically, alliances with more members are more likely to be community/recruitment alliances as opposed to highly motivated warmachines.

If you do go for the win, you get the 65 best players you can, add another 5 scan/cov-op planets and no more. Each player over the 65 best is not likely to add anything special to your alliance while slowly increasing the complexity of running the alliance. It has rarely been worth the effort.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 15:51   #137
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

Ah well what a talks.. In the end this doesnt change a thing for NewDawn.. We were aiming on apprime and we will continue to do just that.

We got a nap with vision and breaking that nap isnt a thing we'll do lightly.. So dont expect that nap to break.

and is this an official nd statement.. -smiles- More or less
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 17:31   #138
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenny View Post
I wonder if anyone really does intend to hurt Vision... perhaps they'd ok with losing some value themselves in any big-wave attacks they launch.

Even if we were to 'cover' the waves by traditional standards, if Whoever were really out to hurt us then we'd need to be ready to take a hit to ensure bullying tactics weren't effective.

Just so long as we don't blink first, we'll be fine.
Oh. We blinked.

Ace.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 19:57   #139
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by HRH_H_Crab View Post
I have to be careful what I say, because I still have a lot of affection and respect for ND, but I don't think they have had much "will" to win a round of PA for quite some time now - its possible they are still recovering from the effort that was required to win their first round!
I'm recovering from the effort it took finishing 2nd.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 20:00   #140
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by Sun_Tzu View Post
Historically, alliances with more members are more likely to be community/recruitment alliances as opposed to highly motivated warmachines.

If you do go for the win, you get the 65 best players you can, add another 5 scan/cov-op planets and no more. Each player over the 65 best is not likely to add anything special to your alliance while slowly increasing the complexity of running the alliance. It has rarely been worth the effort.
Round 30, in the end, Ascendancy had about 120 planets playing for them. With a tag limit of 100, 70 counting.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 20:45   #141
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Round 30, in the end, Ascendancy had about 120 planets playing for them. With a tag limit of 100, 70 counting.
There are always exceptions, but I doubt you'd argue Asc is generally far over the limit. Then again, I seem to remember we recruited a LOT of people during the round, mainly shipjumpers too I think. It also says something about those numbers that I seem to remember Asc having a purge after rnd30 to get rid of the dead weight.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 20:56   #142
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

We would've been hard pressed to sustain those numbers and it would almost certainly not have improved us in the slightest.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 21:12   #143
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Originally Posted by Sun_Tzu View Post
There are always exceptions, but I doubt you'd argue Asc is generally far over the limit. Then again, I seem to remember we recruited a LOT of people during the round, mainly shipjumpers too I think. It also says something about those numbers that I seem to remember Asc having a purge after rnd30 to get rid of the dead weight.
Actually we had a purge after r31. Round 30 our "dead weight" content wasn't really that high (and because we used everyone all some people needed to be were sending machines). We recruited probably half of the alliance or more during the round though yeah.
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Unread 27 Apr 2010, 21:17   #144
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Re: Vision/newdawn nap

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Actually we had a purge after r31. Round 30 our "dead weight" content wasn't really that high (and because we used everyone all some people needed to be were sending machines). We recruited probably half of the alliance or more during the round though yeah.
Ah well, rnd31 was one I didn't play again, not that I can really claim to have played rnd30 either, at least not my own planet.
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