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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 03:07   #1
Monroe
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Possible effects of a shortage of etd

With the current race percentages as follows:
Terran 295(18%)
Cathaar 367(23%)
Xandathrii 363(23%)
Zikonian 389(24%)
Eitraides 162(10%)

I wanted to open a discussion on what this means for the other races with etd being such a small percentage.* Looking at the stats the only really good def ship etd have is the investor, which is very good against BS. However since the second smallest race percentage is terran this means there will be relatively few BS this round. In addition the scorpion is still the par excellance for anti BS, so the loss of the investor as a major def ship is not a big deal. Offensively the biggest target for etd is zik. With this in mind I predict the race that will benefit the most from the shortage of etd will be zik, coupled with their inherent advantage zik's have a big leg up on the other races due to the shortage of etds. Terrans should also benefit some, and xan's will be hurt by the fact that etd is the best target for their FI, so as a result of the shortage of etd, xans will go almost completely FR especially since xan FR coupled with xan CO are very difficult to stop.


*Note: This not a thread to bash Game or his stats, merely to discuss the impact of player race choices. If you want to bash Game start your own thread.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 03:11   #2
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Xan are helped to a degree by the fact that there will be fewer BA class attacks going around. Given that Xan cant stop BA/CR, thats probably an overall benefit to them, as their FI attack fleet is quite weak and thus not going to be built in large numbers anyway (thus not really challenging etd in the first place).

But yes, Zik are looking quite strong at the moment. I wonder if they'd do best to attack themselves? heh.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 03:21   #3
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

I think, because xan fr is a pretty viable attack fleet, and fi viable for counterattacks, the loss of straight up fi targets is outwheighed by the fact that there will be so few bs around. Bs is the one thing xans will struggle to fortress against and now they are going to have a much easier time getting it covered especially with terrans also being scarcer.

The issue with Etd's is that the heavy reliance on emp ships makes it cath-lite and since cath has a sexy new co fleet and better efficiency in coverage than Etd, Why go Etd except for the fun, and I guess people think zik will be more fun.

I would say caths lose the most since they have no-loss defece versus both etd attack fleets and can roid etds.

Terrans lose out a bit even though etds can target them simply due to the less bs around making defence against it easier.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 03:26   #4
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

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Originally Posted by Ultimate Newbie
Xan are helped to a degree by the fact that there will be fewer BA class attacks going around. Given that Xan cant stop BA/CR, thats probably an overall benefit to them, as their FI attack fleet is quite weak and thus not going to be built in large numbers anyway (thus not really challenging etd in the first place).

But yes, Zik are looking quite strong at the moment. I wonder if they'd do best to attack themselves? heh.
Early on yes, but ziks who don't steal fr defence will fall behind quickly at which point ziks will need to have some nice stolen fleet or enough de to hit caths.

As far as xans, I wouldn't put CR in the same class as BS as a threat since there is going to be building so many frigates. Thats a good start to build defence on.

Even with reduced bs numbers and all these damn caths I think id still be a bit more scared of wyverns, then again Im not Xan.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 03:32   #5
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

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Originally Posted by K-W
Terrans lose out a bit even though etds can target them simply due to the less bs around making defence against it easier.
I can go both ways on this. It depends on how caths respond to the shortage of BS in the game. It may lead them to build fewer scorps, and with other good def ship options against both Xan and Zik they may not have fleet slots to spare for much BS defense. This would make ter BS a lot more viable, and may make it easier for ter to roid with BS.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 03:46   #6
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

It's about who grows more or less due to this. It's irrelevant for x race who don't have a lot of targets from y race if they can easily hit a and b. You have to look at effects in their totality.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 06:50   #7
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
It's about who grows more or less due to this. It's irrelevant for x race who don't have a lot of targets from y race if they can easily hit a and b. You have to look at effects in their totality.
Do you have any comments on the effects in their totality? I agree with you that you can't just look at attacks, or defense.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 07:44   #8
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
*Note: This not a thread to bash Game or his stats, merely to discuss the impact of player race choices. If you want to bash Game start your own thread.
Yet it has to do with the stats. Essentially, the weakening of the eitrades seems to have gotten out of hands, perhaps because for the two previous rounds eitrades could have as well been labeled as wintrades. The other half of the coin is the tiny amount of terrans present, which may also be a result of the fact that terrans have been very weak for a third round in the run now.

Usually, terrans hover among the top selected races (perhaps because it's default), but now that's far too, and terrans have dropped down to 6% behind the "edge". Perhaps the lack of terrans will be a more descisive factor in the ploy. This reduces the universe of harpies, which makes it easier for xandathrii again. From a cathaar perspective, the lack of terrans and eitrades is forcing hand on targets - the two other races have an anti-corvette in their podclasses, which makes them a little heavier targets. Terrans and eitrades would've been the cathaar corvette prime targets. Whether terran battleships (the crush-a-xandathrii -fleet) are viable for attacks or not is pretty inrelevant as if a terran hits 300+ every cath and their hounds will be sending tons and tons of corvettes at them - and it's just unstoppable. There's little chance a terran or an eitrades can defend themselves.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 13:32   #9
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Well game was nice enough to do out a hits by spreadsheet for us ages ago so in two stages for a start, who wins because there are less terrans and etds? Cath have one of their easy hit by options eroded down, xan two, zik two (neither etd nor terran gain because of this). In terms of targets you can hit then cath could have hit both with either fleet but it's irrelevant as they've got so many more options, xan have an fi and an fr option reduced and will spend more time hitting ziks with their fr in all likelihood, zik reduced fr viability which will lead to more self-feeding. However with ziks ability to steal and the de fleet's potential on cath it's not too bad for them as inevitably given stealing ziks will expand their own range. Etds reduced option for their co but they can still hit the large number of ziks around with that, reduce numbers of terrans as well but their bs would have spent most of the time hitting xans anyways so that's irrelevant really. Terran might have hit etd with their de but caths are a better idea due to non-attack fleet and worse efficiency.

Overall then etds and terrans are obviously the weakest races purely due to their small numbers meaning the fat targets get more attention. Zik seem to have been hit hardest by how this played out of the other three races but it's always difficult to tell really. Xan didn't gain much either with cath being about the same level. Here's it's largely a question of whether xan lose more with attack options going down or cath lose more with more fleets switching to targetting them. It'll be easier to re-evaluate midround.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 16:51   #10
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
Yet it has to do with the stats. Essentially, the weakening of the eitrades seems to have gotten out of hands, perhaps because for the two previous rounds eitrades could have as well been labeled as wintrades. The other half of the coin is the tiny amount of terrans present, which may also be a result of the fact that terrans have been very weak for a third round in the run now.
Yes it has everything to do with stats, but the purpose of this thread is to discuss the implications of player choices, not why they made those choices to begin with. One other interesting note about Eitrades from last round, I know the community perceived them as the best race but the final tick's statistics didn't bear out that conclusion. Etd was actually under represented in the t100 by -2.6 percent. They were over represented in the t300 by +2.7 percent, so really in the t300 they were fairly well balanced, compared to both Xan and Zik who were significantly over represented in both categories.

Anyway back on topic, while clearly etd is considered the worst race overall, the shortage of BS in the game may actually benefit terrans, not hurt them. It really all depends on the building preferences of caths. So JBG is right, we'll know a lot more half way through the round, but a good player who went ter might actually have a chance as terran DE have been upgraded significantly, and terran BS really didn't take much of a hit compared to last round. Defensively terrans did take a hit, so it may all even out, or it may end up in the negative, and terrans will end up doing worse then they did last round, which would really be a shame.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 17:03   #11
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

To be honest I have a feeling there's going to be an enormous amount of confirmation bias cropping up this round. Remember it's your "average" players who stick with races because they've always played them or because they like them and it's your hardcore players who'll look for their edge every time. Given the numbers it's hard to believe many hardcore players went for etd or terran.
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 22:07   #12
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
To be honest I have a feeling there's going to be an enormous amount of confirmation bias cropping up this round. Remember it's your "average" players who stick with races because they've always played them or because they like them and it's your hardcore players who'll look for their edge every time. Given the numbers it's hard to believe many hardcore players went for etd or terran.
So your saying the fact that a large number of experienced players avoided ter/etd is inherently going to make how those races do bad? If this is so, what do you feel the effects will be on any (and there are always a few) good players who chose these races for whatever reason? I would think they would have a leg up given that most people will build def fleets that are the most useful given the race distribution (anti FR/CR/CO) and this will leave an opening for BS and possibly DE to be successful simply because those that have a decent BS or DE fleet will be able to get through on most targets. Thoughts?
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Unread 5 Sep 2007, 22:10   #13
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Nah, there's a definite tendency to try and have anti nearly everything by most people these days so there'll just be a lot more out there. It'll be easy to find targets but difficult to land (ask people who played cathaar last round about that).
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Unread 6 Sep 2007, 13:58   #14
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
One other interesting note about Eitrades from last round, I know the community perceived them as the best race but the final tick's statistics didn't bear out that conclusion.
One other interesting note about Eitrades from last round, I know you perceive them as well balanced, but the final tick's statistics didn't bear out that conclusion. 50% of the top10 were flagged as Eitrades. Hence wintrades, the race to pick the win with.

Quote:
but a good player who went ter might actually have a chance as terran DE have been upgraded significantly, and terran BS really didn't take much of a hit compared to last round. Defensively terrans did take a hit, so it may all even out, or it may end up in the negative, and terrans will end up doing worse then they did last round, which would really be a shame.
The problem with terrans is, inevitably, the cathaar corvettes. Usually, a lot of cathaars cruiser rush early round. This round it's been scarce. In fact, there's somewhere around 20 times as much resources sunken in mosquitoes as there is in hornets. Because zikonians, xandathrii, and other cathaars are "nasty" targets for corvettes - in compared to the terrans who cannot do anything about any corvette attack fleet, really - makes it difficult for terrans. The side is, whenever you grow on roids you'll get massive corvette attention, and on a sidenote corvettes are nigh impossible to stop on alliance level. This effect will apply through round. The destroyers will face strong zikonian, with the rogue causing issues.

Quote:
So your saying the fact that a large number of experienced players avoided ter/etd is inherently going to make how those races do bad? If this is so, what do you feel the effects will be on any (and there are always a few) good players who chose these races for whatever reason?
Sort of, but there's one vital piece lacking in the puzzle. It's that terrans are targets to a certain mentioned popular attack fleet - so the reduction in terran players causes the few that go terran get larger amounts of pressure by definition. If there wasn't such a flaw (regards to cathaar corvette hole) in the terran fleet structure, less terrans wouldn't mean so dramatic increase in incomings for the excisting terrans. Now it just amplifies itself.
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Unread 6 Sep 2007, 14:00   #15
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

What's so nasty about xan/zik for cat corvettes?
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Unread 6 Sep 2007, 14:46   #16
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

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Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk
What's so nasty about xan/zik for cat corvettes?
I suppose with Xan its a matter of prioritisation. Xan with have alot of Nitemares or Phantoms, whilst Caths split their fleet between Beetles and Vipers...
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Unread 6 Sep 2007, 15:00   #17
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

On the other hand:
Stopping 10000 Nightmare (63k) requires Viper: 15625 (48k)

A little specialisation gets you a long ways.
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Unread 6 Sep 2007, 15:33   #18
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk
On the other hand:
Stopping 10000 Nightmare (63k) requires Viper: 15625 (48k)

A little specialisation gets you a long ways.
You're presenting efficiency numbers to avoid a structural fact, ie. being a little ignorant. Let's make it very simple.

Argument #1: zikonians and xandathrii have cutters or nightmares in their attack fleets. Terran and eitrades do not. Argument #2: people invest more resources in their attack fleets than in their defence fleets.

Logic follows that zikonians and xandathrii will have more of those anti-corvette frigates and they will be surrounded by more flak (see: dragon, tycoon - chimera, dealer and preferences according to argument #2). Because we argue that they will in a static scenario have higher defences against cathaar corvettes, making them easier to defend against this fleet. Thus, they will be more difficult thus less prefered (so to say nastier than terran or eitrades) targets for cathaar corvettes.
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Unread 6 Sep 2007, 16:52   #19
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

I'm with Keizari on this one, given that both Xan and Zik have both FI and FR anti CO, in both cases they are going to build their FR anti CO rather then their FI anti CO, the FR are useful attack options while the FI are not. This will lead to caths focusing on CO that target FR rather then FI, which will in turn without question hurt Ter who's only anti CO option is FR, and given this it will also be difficult to get anti CO because most players who have it (Xan/Zik) will be attacking with it.

One potentially interesting consequence of this will be if what I have just mentioned happens and ziks switch to building a bunch of FI to flak the few anti FI CO out there, they could end up stealing quite a few CO. A strong zik CO fleet will in turn be able to steal Xan FR, which would make zik pretty nasty.
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Unread 6 Sep 2007, 18:08   #20
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Keiz, I'm not being intentionally dense here, I honestly don't see your point.

If all three races build FR -> CO, what is the big difference? Why would I prefer hitting Ter over Xan and Zik?
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Unread 6 Sep 2007, 22:20   #21
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk
Keiz, I'm not being intentionally dense here, I honestly don't see your point.

If all three races build FR -> CO, what is the big difference? Why would I prefer hitting Ter over Xan and Zik?
Because Terrans won't build as many FR as xan and zik. In order for terrans to build FR they have to divert resources from attack fleet expenditures and spend them on a ship that is purely useful for defense. Xan and Zik on the other hand can build anti CO FR without having to divert resources from attack fleets. In addition Xan/Zik can also build other FR ships that also are useful for attack and can be used for flak against CO incomming. Therefore as a percentage of their total resource expenditure both Xan and Zik have a big leg up on Ter when it comes to defending against CO incomming.
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Unread 7 Sep 2007, 00:01   #22
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Oh. :|

Yeah, now you mention it, that does sounds rather logical.
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The outraged poets threw sticks and rocks over the side of the bridge. They were all missing Mary and he felt a contented smug feeling wash over him. He would have given them a coy little wave if the roof hadn't collapsed just then. Mary then found himself in the middle of an understandably shocked family's kitchen table. So he gave them the coy little wave and realized it probably would have been more effective if he hadn't been lying on their turkey.
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Unread 7 Sep 2007, 01:15   #23
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

If a Cath attacks me with Beetles, i have my Nightmares
If a Cath attacks me with Vipers, I build Phantoms.
If a Cath attacks me with Beetles + Vipers he won't be able to freeze all my Nightmares, and i can still build more if needed.

The beauty of Xan is that you only need to build Nightmares + pod... difficult to overpower them with emp without leaving huge gaps in your own fleet (as if Caths needed that to draw massive incs).
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Unread 7 Sep 2007, 11:34   #24
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Quote:
Originally Posted by Makhil
If a Cath attacks me with Beetles, i have my Nightmares
If a Cath attacks me with Vipers, I build Phantoms.
If a Cath attacks me with Beetles + Vipers he won't be able to freeze all my Nightmares, and i can still build more if needed.

The beauty of Xan is that you only need to build Nightmares + pod... difficult to overpower them with emp without leaving huge gaps in your own fleet (as if Caths needed that to draw massive incs).
and you plan to have your attackfleets home all round?
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Unread 7 Sep 2007, 12:05   #25
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Hitting his planet is restricted by anti bashing rules ingame!
"you cannot launch on such a tiny planet"
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Unread 7 Sep 2007, 13:29   #26
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Quote:
Originally Posted by robban1
and you plan to have your attackfleets home all round?
When picking targets most planets will rely on a adv unit and bcalc from there, they just don't attack if the bcalc leave them little chance of roids.
Ok you can attack me planning that i must be in attack somewhere, but if needed (i can't get ally, cluster or ingal def) I just have to recall my ships...

We'll count the points at the end of the round ok ? If I was wrong and you did much better than me, I'll gladly aknowledge publicly your superior tactical skills.
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Unread 7 Sep 2007, 13:31   #27
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

Retals.
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The outraged poets threw sticks and rocks over the side of the bridge. They were all missing Mary and he felt a contented smug feeling wash over him. He would have given them a coy little wave if the roof hadn't collapsed just then. Mary then found himself in the middle of an understandably shocked family's kitchen table. So he gave them the coy little wave and realized it probably would have been more effective if he hadn't been lying on their turkey.
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Unread 8 Sep 2007, 01:39   #28
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

if the target has FA and enough amps
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Unread 9 Sep 2007, 04:08   #29
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

no idea if I'm jsut speaking for myself o the whole of the great Zik race, but I didn't choose Zik to cap roids, I chose Zik to cap ships. I will always choose FI anti CO (cutlass) over FR anto CO (cutter).

When your playing Zik (from my perspective) and you get incomings, you look at the amount of ships you will lose. That is your ground Zero. Then you look at how many ships you can build over and above the ground zero mark that will steal.

Then you build like a cnut.

Up to this point (Tick175) Xan fr incoming have been pathetic, corsair has beasted the crap out of them, I've just launched a Xan fr fleet thats bigger than any 2 Xan incoming I've had at me so far. Cutlass has as always raped the cath co. Etd and fellow Ziks aint even had a sniff of me, had a terran land me unooposed which as we all know is more by fluke than design, my rogues will be waiting in production for the next DE to come my way.

Last round ppl cried about how poop and hard to land the Cath CR fleet was to land, personally I capped a ton with my stolen cath cr, which to be fair was tiny compared to an actual cath cr fleet.

Enough of the self glorification. This is a plain and simple fact. People build what is needed for survival. We can all predict this and that, but once the numbers meet your predictions, any1 with half a brain will go the other way and build their fleet to suit what defence ISN'T about.
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Unread 9 Sep 2007, 09:14   #30
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Re: Possible effects of a shortage of etd

The problem with having to build corsairs all the time is the terrible m\c\e ratio which screws your resource amounts over. And its not really great to get zik fr inc, sure its you roidfleet you steal, but to steal that and loose a bit value only for the next day to get 3 new zik fr waves..
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