Round 47 Predictions

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by eksero

It's not allowed to block against the alliance(s) b butcher is/have been playing in. And if you do, it's ruining the game and all that

And its certainly not allowed to have a fair fight with his enemys (and the other way around)

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by eksero

It's not allowed to block against the alliance(s) b butcher is/have been playing in. And if you do, it's ruining the game and all that

Lol, your an retard

[Paisley]

Originally Posted by eksero

If you don't believe me, feel free to go and ask agar3s

What does this have to do with this thread anyway?

I was pointing out that what you say can't always be taken at face value. (sarcasim my arse)

Maybe Agar3s would like to comment on the forums about Ultores and next round.

How you got asked back to the HC position after the non compliance of defending does raise questions.

[Mzyxptlk]

If what eksero says can't be taken at face value, maybe you shouldn't be taking what he said about getting kicked at face value.

[Cain]

More importantly, it looks like haven is pretty shit.
They had the time to sit on roids for most of the round without getting serious inc and they seem to lose em quite easily now also. Does anyone feel free to share how the average players in there are coping or not?

Just don't give up as usual, you can still win this. If you have doubt just become black, Obama style!

If you need a strong awesome shoulder to cry on, PR is here pals.
You know where to find me, fking best PR ever

<3

[Mikee]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

If what eksero says can't be taken at face value, maybe you shouldn't be taking what he said about getting kicked at face value.

can you dumb down a little please ? i think you got b-bitch3r all confused

[Clouds]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

They did side with DFTWT and xVx if one was to belive all the rumours, and it looks like they didnt have what it took to take down CT/HvN/ND

Although this -might- be true, this block was formed MUCH later than the CT/HVN/ND block.

[Paisley]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

If what eksero says can't be taken at face value, maybe you shouldn't be taking what he said about getting kicked at face value.

I Heard through the grapevine when eksero got kicked.

[Kaiba]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

HaveN's first taste of what Ultores deals with for 75% of the round and what CT fall apart from in under 3 days???

10% time??

I just got home from logged in to see the damage to HaveN... 9.7% - im seriously gutted i was 0.3% out on my prediction!!!

Guess it shows tho that HaveN are just another CT style allinace, ok when the going is good and awful when it isn't!!!

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

I just got home from logged in to see the damage to HaveN... 9.7% - im seriously gutted i was 0.3% out on my prediction!!!

Guess it shows tho that HaveN are just another CT style allinace, ok when the going is good and awful when it isn't!!!

yes because getting hit by Ult/Bab/CT would be anything different for anyone else (and that includes Ult if hit by an identical alliance)

Your bigotry on these forums still astound me

[Mzyxptlk]

Bigotry? I do not think that word means what you think it means.

[neroon]

amuses to compare this with ult results of same incs whole round

[MaxMilliaN]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

Sad to see the Apptores block strike once again. Another round Apprime has helped their faithfull companions Rats to another victory.
Can anyone hurt the Apptores block in r48?

sad to see?

so HVN and DWTFK hit BABYLONS, when BABYLONS did not take either CT or ULT side or hitted HVN. this we see as act of war. its 1 dumb HVN hc who didnt see this coming. that when u hit us, u become our enemy. and your enemies become our friends.

really simple tbh, only u call it apptores block. we are not typical PA alliance, that u can hit to make us not join any side.

if ult would hit us, we would do the same. If ct would hit us, we would do the same. but unlike HVN, they were not stupid.

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

Bigotry? I do not think that word means what you think it means.

big·ot (b g t). n. One who is strongly partial to one's own group, religion, race, or politics and is intolerant of those who differ.

bigotry [ˈbɪgətrɪ]
n pl -ries
the attitudes, behaviour, or way of thinking of a bigot; prejudice; intolerance

I think it does

[Mzyxptlk]

Just because we use the word "politics" for the dealing and scheming of alliances doesn't make that word any less out of context.

[Forest]

How about 'ones own group' or 'way of thinking'

[Mzyxptlk]

You're clutching at straws, man (and still taking stuff out of context).

[eksero]

Originally Posted by Paisley

I Heard through the grapevine when eksero got kicked.

In other words, clouds told you. And like i pointed out earlier in the thread, he doesn't seem to be quite up to date on what's going on either

Maybe admit you are wrong and let it go?

[eksero]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

Lol, your an retard

Cos im stating the obvious?

[Kaiba]

I dont play pa so i dont have 'a group' so that rules that one out

And sorry Forest but Ultores and Apprime (Babylons whatever you call them) and even FaNG for that matter hold up to big incommings far better than the likes of CT and ND and now HaveN.

We only have to take last round as an example, CT and FaNG hit Ultores for what 500? ticks and Ultores stayed strong and defended every night, losses got less and less as your attacks were repelled.

CT on the other hand got hit for 3 nights and you had members giving up!! I know you had more roids to lose at the point you got hit but the percentages were far greater and 3 nights of attacks on you did far more damage than the 3 weeks of attacks on Ultores.

Its called calibre... CT and HaveN lack it but you sure as hell make up for it in delusion and arrogance!


One a side note how safe to CT feel in the current situation? I mean do you beleive because everyone went after HaveN that your safe or deep down do you know your being left to last because your the easiest to take down???

[Shev]

As much as I'd love my alliance to make claim to that grand strategic plan, it's not really worked out like that. Apprime are hitting Haven due to Haven picking a fight with them, Ultores naturally jumped on that bandwagon, and CT then took a fairly sensible decision to try and win by also joining in.

[Forest]

No you don't play pa, you just spend your time here posting repetitively 'ct suck, ult own, im gonna laugh at them'

Man up, I know most people cant stand you so you dont have many options left (it takes something for ppl on all sides of pa to see you as a fool) but maybe you could build an alliance and show us how it is done.

Fact is, regardless of skill level, pa needs alliances like ult, like ct, like tof.

So do us all a favour and crawl back under your rock.

I won't answer your last question, I have made my position on that very clear in this thread.

[Clouds]

Originally Posted by eksero

In other words, clouds told you. And like i pointed out earlier in the thread, he doesn't seem to be quite up to date on what's going on either

Actually, at the time of posting regarding Ultores next round, the information was correct.

[eksero]

Originally Posted by Clouds

Actually, at the time of posting regarding Ultores next round, the information was correct.

That may be true, but that wasn't what I corrected you on

[Clouds]

Then elaborate what you corrected me on, because from what I can tell, you only 'corrected' me on my comment regarding Ultores next round.

[eksero]

Originally Posted by Clouds

Then elaborate what you corrected me on, because from what I can tell, you only 'corrected' me on my comment regarding Ultores next round.

I guess you didn't read the post below your own then!

But here goes

[Clouds]

Originally Posted by eksero

I guess you didn't read the post below your own then!

But here goes

That was more of a sarcastic comment... !

[MiX]

you guys should make an IRC chan, its faster that way! I suggest #ADwhineNobodyElseCaresAbout

I dont think its registered yet!

[Blue_Esper]

Sorry MiX, but i love reading AD, its one of the best threads on the internet in terms of comedic value, for me. When you have such a vast range of people who bait others into a reaction like eksero vs people like b-butcher who continuously bite and make them selves sound really stupid. To the people who can be arsed with facts and figures and tables and equations like Mzyxptlk it just makes for an enjoyable read.
Basically i can't be idle on your awesome IRC chan 24/7 to log it all for later reading so this forum suits me just fine when i need to catch up on some smiles.

[aNgRyDuCk]

you guys should just get a room and get it over with

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by Blue_Esper

Sorry MiX, but i love reading AD, its one of the best threads on the internet in terms of comedic value, for me. When you have such a vast range of people who bait others into a reaction like eksero vs people like b-butcher who continuously bite and make them selves sound really stupid. To the people who can be arsed with facts and figures and tables and equations like Mzyxptlk it just makes for an enjoyable read.
Basically i can't be idle on your awesome IRC chan 24/7 to log it all for later reading so this forum suits me just fine when i need to catch up on some smiles.

I think its people like you who sound stupid, what a suprise

[ArcChas]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

<snip>
Its called calibre... CT and HaveN lack it ...
<snip>

Unlike any of the alliances listed in your sig?
I'd say, "don't make me laugh" but that would be asking the impossible.

[Wouter]

first of all eksero left due to him not knowing if he could bring anything to the ult table, due to moving countries and work

on the other hand forest
yes, i said incs are hard on my members for 400-500 ticks, saying different would be a lie
on the other note, from what i been told this was said and from both ct and hvn confirming, hvn and ct s main goal was to kill ult off so no need for more on that subject

now betty boob, keep in your mind that regardless of what ally or what game, everyone reading this forum can clearly tell you have less iq then the average dog

so for the love of god, dont come again acting like you troll or whatever, just google education systems and find something that fits your iq and atleast get some knowledge before posting again

[Buddah]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

I just got home from logged in to see the damage to HaveN... 9.7% - im seriously gutted i was 0.3% out on my prediction!!!

Guess it shows tho that HaveN are just another CT style allinace, ok when the going is good and awful when it isn't!!!

Did you forget to think what you posted through, or are you clueless?
I'll wait for your reply before i start insulting your IQ!
hugz and kissez

[Kaiba]

Please enlighten me Buddah...

What i was thinking was that at this stage in the game with that kind of value and roid lead on everyone else only the likes of CT and ND would be bad enough to throw it away that quickly... seems HaveN joined that club.


As i see it when Ultores get hit early doors its far easier to take roids off them, value is negliable, most dont have full TT, make its vastly harder to defend. At this point in game or really from tick 700 onwards if your holding the kind of value lead that CT or HvN are and having the roids that they do too you really shouldnt be getting pwned like that, it should take less fleets to cover you and you should maybe even be able to prod to cover yourself.

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Please enlighten me Buddah...

What i was thinking was that at this stage in the game with that kind of value and roid lead on everyone else only the likes of CT and ND would be bad enough to throw it away that quickly... seems HaveN joined that club.


As i see it when Ultores get hit early doors its far easier to take roids off them, value is negliable, most dont have full TT, make its vastly harder to defend. At this point in game or really from tick 700 onwards if your holding the kind of value lead that CT or HvN are and having the roids that they do too you really shouldnt be getting pwned like that, it should take less fleets to cover you and you should maybe even be able to prod to cover yourself.

Dear Kaiba

Erm, what value lead did HvN have over Babylon/CT/Ultores and who ever else was on the bandwagon?
You do this all the time, speak of PA like you know something that everyone else has managed to not notice. And i do thank you for your effort on trying to fling poo at HaveN and every other alliance out there.
I would love if you would just leave the trolling to all the other shady characters on these forums, cus they are much more entertaining, and less painfull to watch. You sir are just used diskspace for these forums.

Kind regards B-Bitch3r

[neroon]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

Dear Kaiba

Erm, what value lead did HvN have over Babylon/CT/Ultores and who ever else was on the bandwagon?
You do this all the time, speak of PA like you know something that everyone else has managed to not notice. And i do thank you for your effort on trying to fling poo at HaveN and every other alliance out there.
I would love if you would just leave the trolling to all the other shady characters on these forums, cus they are much more entertaining, and less painfull to watch. You sir are just used diskspace for these forums.

Kind regards B-Bitch3r

1) he said that hvn had a value lead over Ultores and the same thing with CT, since u 2 hadn`t received any incs for whole round

2) gettin ure own medicine must really be painful, now u hopefully see how we must deal with ure replies for most of the round :S

Ures truly,
Ivar

[Mzyxptlk]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

Erm, what value lead did HvN have over Babylon/CT/Ultores and who ever else was on the bandwagon?
You do this all the time, speak of PA like you know something that everyone else has managed to not notice. And i do thank you for your effort on trying to fling poo at HaveN and every other alliance out there.
I would love if you would just leave the trolling to all the other shady characters on these forums, cus they are much more entertaining, and less painfull to watch. You sir are just used diskspace for these forums.

My intel suggests HaVen currently have 295m value, while CT has 308m. hAVen went from 111k roids to 81k roids during that time, while CT went from 100k to 111k. 41k roids is about 8.2m value, and those roids produced about 9.8m value for CT during that time. So yes, it is very fair to say they had a value lead on CT, though it only about 5m.

Compared with Ultores and Apprime, the gap was huge and is still huge: 223m value for Ultores, 181m value for Apprime, 295m for hAvEN.

Now, does that mean they had a roid and/or value lead on Apprime, CT and Ultores taken together? No, of course not. No one ever has a lead on three top 5 alliances combined, so that's a meaningless comparison. Even Ascendancy in round 28 only managed to outgrow 2 alliances, never 3.

I also do not think it's fair to compare HAVen to the notoriously crash-happy ND. Yes, they lost more roids than an alliance like Ultores would've, but from what sandmans tells me, it doesn't look like they actually crashed much. In fact, over the last 5 days, I can only find a single instance of significant value loss that wasn't caused by roid loss.

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

What i was thinking was that at this stage in the game with that kind of value and roid lead on everyone else only the likes of CT and ND would be bad enough to throw it away that quickly... seems HaveN joined that club.

Who says with a value lead like this the likes of CT and ND would throw it away anyway?

Originally Posted by Kaiba

As i see it when Ultores get hit early doors its far easier to take roids off them, value is negliable, most dont have full TT, make its vastly harder to defend.

Let me explain how pa works.
You cap 25% of roids and this gets lower depending on how big you are.

So, a big value CT or Haven planet landing on 600 roid Ult would get a max of 150 roids early on. The lack of roids also makes landing HARDER because the potential gain isn't there, meaning less of the attack needs to be killed. And when they do land, it is less score.

A lower value Ult now, landing on a high value 2k roid Haven, would get maybe 500 roids and masses of xp/score gain.

To put it in perspective, I am top 40 and always go for large targets, hence I have been very fat all round. But my score is only 6.2m. I find it hard to get xp, and only have 13.6k.

My mate yesterday was small, a late start up. He landed on a Haven for 600 roids and picked up 13k xp (my total for the round) + 1m score. It doesnt matter what alliance you are in, its the score of the planets that count.

Originally Posted by Kaiba

At this point in game or really from tick 700 onwards if your holding the kind of value lead that CT or HvN are and having the roids that they do too you really shouldnt be getting pwned like that, it should take less fleets to cover you and you should maybe even be able to prod to cover yourself.

That would be correct *IF* you base it on value v value. However, pa rarely works like that. Especially in this round with zero loss ships.
For instance, I have been trying to solo for large parts of the round.
I have over 1 MILLION co ships.
But, 10k buccs can force me to pull. 5k even can make it not worthwhile to land on smaller ult targets. The same goes for specs v cr. Etc Etc Etc.
However in the case of zik's, of which Ult seem to have many, then covering many classes mean that more fleets need to be used.

This means, in a large majority of cases, it comes down to fleet numbers rather than size.
Haven have 222 potential def fleets, if everyone can make 3 def fleets and if scanners have the same. I would expect them to actually be able to make 1 def fleet that can cover a whole incoming and two more that would be shared about. What this means is that whilst they have 222 potential fleets, the most they would be able to cover is something like 150 calls at the absolute most and that is only if everyone is active and defences go well. It is probably closer to about 100 though, assuming 2 fleets for each def call on average.
If Ult and CT each send 120 fleets (60 each, which is one fleet from each active member), then Haven could just about cover all the calls, though some of course would slip through.
However, they are not and are sending two fleets so lets base it on just 240 incoming, though I bet it is more. That means that approx 50% of attacks are impossible to get def for. Lets say a massive 40% of attacks get cover ingal (and it is nowhere near that, most ingal def comes from own alliance, which we have already calced for), leaving only 10% of attacks getting through.
10% of 240 is 24 fleets landing. Some of them will be team ups, lets assume its only 12 fleets landing from the 240 that are launched. The average roid count now is 1100. So 25% of 1100 is 275. 275 times 12 lands = 3300. 3300 = 4% of total roids.
So today, without taking account of ANY SKILL LEVEL, I would expect hvn to lose approx 4% based just on fleet numbers attacking.
It will be more than that because I have been conservative in my numbers, a lot of guesswork going into them.

Now, because of the previously discussed size/score gain concept, any land by Ult will likely be for a bigger score gain and bigger cap. Ult therfore SHOULD grow by more than CT, based just on fleet numbers. Factor in that haven are probably prioritising defence v CT, and ult should get more lands at more score gain. This we are seeing.

But, back to your original point, CT are doing just as well on attacks as Ult and Haven are doing better in defence than anyone could have imagined.

And incase you still have any doubt, you should look at Haven v Apprime. Apprime have a few less fleets available I grant you, but are just as value high as hvn. App are arguably in the skill level of Ult, and more dangerous (given that they don't care a flying fk about score and will do what it takes to have revenge). Yet when haven and App went at it, App got roided. Infact, I think one day about 4%, that magic minimum number we talked about. And that was without the added fleets of CT and co flying at them.
As soon as App hit back, hvn got roided.

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

Bla bla bla bla bla

All combined CT/Ultores/Babylon and what not other blockers outnumbered HaveN greatly.
Ofc they will lose roids, wth did u think they would when the whole univers is attacking them?
Its a singel target round where anyone can roid anyone basicly. Value count for nothing.
Now we will just have to wait for Appocmasters fleet stats once again, to see what alliance got what of incomming fleets. Ofc the good old trolls over at Ultores camp will claim that they had it worst cus it was in the begining of the round, while the numbers would tell us that there were in fact other alliances that had a lot of incommings aswell, or as last round waay way way way more than Ultores.

[Mzyxptlk]

Originally Posted by Forest

This means, in a large majority of cases, it comes down to fleet numbers rather than size.

I fundamentally disagree with this statement, and while the numbers you use in your examples seem fairly reasonable to me, they don't actually support your argument at all. This becomes clear when we get to your conclusion:

Originally Posted by Forest

Now, because of the previously discussed size/score gain concept, any land by Ult will likely be for a bigger score gain and bigger cap. Ult therfore SHOULD grow by more than CT, based just on fleet numbers. Factor in that haven are probably prioritising defence v CT, and ult should get more lands at more score gain. This we are seeing.

Because we're not seeing that at all. Quite the opposite. Ultores went from 199m score to 235m score (36 gained) over the last 4 days, while CT went from 244m score to 281m score (37m gained) over the same period. I can't come to any other conclusion than that the CT are making up for their lower quality by simply having more value than Ultores.

If your fleet is 20% larger, then you're 20% harder to cover. To say that Ultores would be just as hard to stop if they had 70m more value (putting them on par with HaVEn) is just plain false, and CT's higher growth is the proof.

[Mzyxptlk]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

All combined CT/Ultores/Babylon and what not other blockers outnumbered HaveN greatly.
Ofc they will lose roids, wth did u think they would when the whole univers is attacking them?

I don't recall saying they wouldn't lose roids. I said they were losing more than I would expect Ultores to, in the same situation. If you want to contest that, be my guest. Otherwise, have fun continuing to pull down straw man arguments.

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

Its a singel target round where anyone can roid anyone basicly. Value count for nothing.

"Sure."

[eksero]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

Its a singel target round where anyone can roid anyone basicly. Value count for nothing.

If you know how to defend properly it does

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

Now we will just have to wait for Appocmasters fleet stats once again, to see what alliance got what of incomming fleets. Ofc the good old trolls over at Ultores camp will claim that they had it worst cus it was in the begining of the round, while the numbers would tell us that there were in fact other alliances that had a lot of incommings aswell, or as last round waay way way way more than Ultores.

So you actually think that being blocked against early in the round when everyone is on equal footing is not worse than being blocked against at pt800+ when you have a valuelead on all alliances?

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

I fundamentally disagree with this statement, and while the numbers you use in your examples seem fairly reasonable to me, they don't actually support your argument at all. This becomes clear when we get to your conclusion:

I still think it does. They can only cover so many fleets.

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

Because we're not seeing that at all. Quite the opposite. Ultores went from 199m score to 235m score (36 gained) over the last 4 days, while CT went from 244m score to 281m score (37m gained) over the same period. I can't come to any other conclusion than that the CT are making up for their lower quality by simply having more value than Ultores.

Whilst value could be helping, I think it is more likely that resources from roids, plus the fact we had large stockpiles which have now largely been spent, will have artificially increased our score gain. Another 48 hours and that will level out, leaving Ult to gain more, faster.

That said, I have now changed my opinion on Ult winning and do not believe it is possible for them to at this point, unless there is a massive shift in the game (lots of people deleting or something).

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

If your fleet is 20% larger, then you're 20% harder to cover. To say that Ultores would be just as hard to stop if they had 70m more value (putting them on par with HaVEn) is just plain false, and CT's higher growth is the proof.

Again, I am not sure that is entirely accurate.
CT went fi/co and I believe we have more co ships than anything else.
But, you can attack with 3million co or just 300k co, it still takes the same 20k bucc fleet to stop you landing. And the smaller the planet you are attacking, the less buccs needed, regardless of the attackers size.

And there is a changing mentality in CT atm which is leading to a lot more solo's, so you wont see the fi/co team ups as much as you might have in previous rounds from us.

[Mzyxptlk]

I had originally added a response to that, but removed it because I felt it would distract from my main point. Why are you soloing if it's so easy to stop it? That's just dumb.

[neroon]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

All combined CT/Ultores/Babylon and what not other blockers outnumbered HaveN greatly.
Ofc they will lose roids, wth did u think they would when the whole univers is attacking them?
Its a singel target round where anyone can roid anyone basicly. Value count for nothing.
Now we will just have to wait for Appocmasters fleet stats once again, to see what alliance got what of incomming fleets. Ofc the good old trolls over at Ultores camp will claim that they had it worst cus it was in the begining of the round, while the numbers would tell us that there were in fact other alliances that had a lot of incommings aswell, or as last round waay way way way more than Ultores.

u are unrepairable

sadface

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

I had originally added a response to that, but removed it because I felt it would distract from my main point. Why are you soloing if it's so easy to stop it? That's just dumb.

Because 1 land every four attacks is better than teaming with 5 others to get through.

I am top 30 on roids, and most of the other top guys are solo'ing too

[Forest]

Also, with co, like I said, 3mill co gets stopped by 10k buccs. But, they only have so many bucc fleets. Spreading it out means more lands as an alliance

[Mzyxptlk]

That makes sense. Thanks.

[Buddah]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Please enlighten me Buddah...

If above posters is to complicated for you here is an explanation even a 5 year old could understand!

1. Ult 2. Haven 3. Babylon 4. CT 5. xvx
Is a list of who has best attacks.

of those 5 ult have had from 2. Haven currently have from 3 possibly 4. along with nub flak.

That also means its no def for haven from those allies. Ult could get def from bab and xvx.

Can try to simplify even more, but i think even you get this!
hugz and kissez