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Unread 25 Jan 2010, 15:40   #1
Knight Theamion
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The Ministry Teaching Courses presents: ROI (Return on Investment)

Hello Class!

Today we are going to talk about Return on Investment, or ROI as it is usually called.
Return on Investment is a mathematical method that is used to estimate if something is worth buying or not. A good introduction can be found here.

Now, we want to apply this to Planetarion. Because we can. Planetarion is all about getting assets that generate more resouces in some way. You can get ships or you can get asteroids. At some point the ROI for getting asteroids directly (initiating) becomes so high, you stop with it, then you start building ships to get asteroids from others, because that is cheaper.
At the same time you have to 'protect' yourself from others trying to remove your assets, because then they might never make up for their investment. What you really want is to invest in something and make it a cash cow.



Experience has taught us some 'rules of thumb' on how to estimate your odds of 'losing roids'.
  • Obvious holes in your fleet (you barely target FR or FI for instance)
  • Being allianceless
  • Being in an alliance that does not defend well
  • Being in an alliance that gets attacked a lot (looks like the previous point, not totally the same!)
  • Having lots of roids compared to your value (being FAT!)
  • Being a planet that relies a lot on 'hugs' aka 'emp', ETD or CATH
If you can say 'this applies to me' in a lot of instances, you are prone to lose roids. If you have a lot of them, this risk grows exponentially.
Now lets continue, if you try to acquire assets (roids) from another player and you make a calculation, always do the 'possible worst case calculation'. This means that you take all factors into account, if the target produces frigates, assume it is only frigates that target you, if the target has cloaked defence and you cannot check by newsies what the defence is, expect the worst. When you have done this you will get your ROI calculation. If it is pricy, say more then 36 hours, it is usually not worth it. If it makes you REALLY fat, it usually definately is not worth it.

Now there are some counter arguments which we have heard. One of them is 'what about hurting my opponent'. Ofcourse, this is a valid one. This is a wargame and if you are out to utterly destroy your opponent, that is, only attack him and do not stop untill he is unable to threaten you in any perceivable way, then sometimes landing with a bad ROI is a good thing to do. Especially if you kill a lot of them, it makes the ROI of their defence very bad. In some extreme cases the losses do not even get spread evenly, if you do multiclass attacks this might sometimes be the case. A FI/CO attack where the FI gets slaughtered and the CO lands free is an example of this.


Loss distribution. A good thing about ROI is that it is communicative. This means that if an ROI is bad for one person, the same ROI is bad for 15 people. You cannot diversify your ROI away so it suddenly becomes profitable.

Another argument is: 'we take away their assets so they do not grow'. Do not forget that all losses you make, a certain percentage directly goes to your opponent, who is focussing on you. So while you take losses, or in the worst case if you had cash lying around you rebuild them instantly, you basically stand still. This has a lot to do with 'internal rate of return', we talk about that later. (This is specifically true where you take significant losses without hurting your opponent, this round that would be landing XAN FR on pure centaur defence)

Yet another argument is : landing for XP. This only works in the later stages of the round, when the loss in ships is more then compensated by the gain of score through XP. But you have to keep in mind how open it sets you to attacks. So it basically only pays off in the last week of the round or if you know for definately sure you can also keep those roids.

A small note should be made about 'strategical' or 'sweet lands', sometimes you just want to ruin someones round because you think you are attacking a perceived figurehead that might quit if you kill/roid him or make his top 1, 10, 100 ranking a figment of his imagination, if that is what you play for, then sometimes it is worth a landing, but you should really ask yourself 'Am I playing the right game?'.


So what we have seen is that ROI is a very usefull tool to quickly decide whether you (and maybe your teammates) should land an attack or not. We have also shown that some arguments used are invalid arguments and we have also shown a case where ROI does not apply.

Next time, when you have shown to apply ROI in practice, we go to 'Internal Rate of Return', also known as 'value creating more value'. Which is a good argument why landing for XP is never a good idea.

On behalf of the Ministry,
Theamion


edit: I am posting this on AD as this is a significant item at the moment in the 'everyone and the kitchensink versus Apprime'-war at the moment
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Last edited by Knight Theamion; 8 Feb 2010 at 10:45. Reason: ok!
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Unread 25 Jan 2010, 20:03   #2
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Invesment)

The ROI of playing PA is below 0.
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Unread 25 Jan 2010, 20:12   #3
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Invesment)

ITT: Someone trying too hard to be funny
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Unread 25 Jan 2010, 20:16   #4
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Invesment)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zotnam View Post
ITT: Someone trying too hard to be funny
sometimes i wish i saved the jokes you tell in the supersecret channel... thats trying too hard!
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Unread 25 Jan 2010, 21:49   #5
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

You can change the title of your own topic. Click edit, then advanced. Good thread by the way.
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Unread 26 Jan 2010, 12:51   #6
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Maybe you can publish your own PA 101 book one day Theam.

Maybe.
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Unread 26 Jan 2010, 20:03   #7
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Quote:
Originally Posted by HellKicker View Post
Maybe you can publish your own PA 101 book one day Theam.

Maybe.
If everyone follows it he might actually have a chance at winning, too!
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Unread 26 Jan 2010, 23:29   #8
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Quote:
Originally Posted by HellKicker View Post
Maybe you can publish your own PA 101 book one day Theam.

Maybe.
I'll save you the time:

1. Join whatever alliance has Asc-players in it.
2. Suck of JBG.
3. ???
4. Fail to profit because you're Theam and you ****ing suck.
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Unread 27 Jan 2010, 04:08   #9
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Nice post theam!

btw is there also a masterclass on defdraining?
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Unread 27 Jan 2010, 17:07   #10
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

its RONIC and not ROI, sinds you evaluating an investment in additonal capital (new roids) and not evaluating your current capital.

nice post anyway
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Unread 29 Jan 2010, 01:00   #11
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Couldn't you have posted this shit before i banged your mum Theam?... Aids wasn't the best of returns if i'm being honest .....
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Unread 29 Jan 2010, 03:29   #12
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

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Couldn't you have posted this shit before i banged your mum Theam?... Aids wasn't the best of returns if i'm being honest .....
You gave Theams mum aids? You're almost worse than Game...
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Unread 30 Jan 2010, 20:27   #13
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

tl;dr, cliffs anyone?
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Unread 31 Jan 2010, 04:04   #14
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

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tl;dr, cliffs anyone?
Don't be shit.
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Unread 2 Feb 2010, 19:35   #15
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Criticism/Disadvantages or Limitations of Return on Investment (ROI) Method of Performance Evaluation:

Although the return on investment is widely used in evaluating performance, it is not a perfect tool. The method is subject to the following criticism:

1. Just telling managers to increase ROI may not be enough. Managers may not know how to increase ROI; they may increase ROI in a way that is inconsistent with the company's strategy; or they may take actions that increase ROI in the short run but harm company the long run (such as cutting back on the research and development). This is why ROI is best used as part of a balanced scorecard. A balanced scorecard can provide concrete guidance to managers, making it more likely that action taken are consistent with the company's strategy and reducing the likelihood that short-run performance will be enhanced at the expense of long-term performance.

2. A manager who takes over a business segment typically inherent many committed costs over which the manager has no control. These committed costs may be relevant in assessing the performance of the business segment as an investment but make it difficult to fairly assess the performance of the manager relative to other managers.

3. A manager who is evaluated based on return on investment (ROI) may reject investment opportunities that are profitable for the whole company but that would have a negative impact on the manager's performance evaluation.
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Unread 3 Feb 2010, 04:23   #16
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoom View Post
Criticism/Disadvantages or Limitations of Return on Investment (ROI) Method of Performance Evaluation:

Although the return on investment is widely used in evaluating performance, it is not a perfect tool. The method is subject to the following criticism:

1. Just telling managers to increase ROI may not be enough. Managers may not know how to increase ROI; they may increase ROI in a way that is inconsistent with the company's strategy; or they may take actions that increase ROI in the short run but harm company the long run (such as cutting back on the research and development). This is why ROI is best used as part of a balanced scorecard. A balanced scorecard can provide concrete guidance to managers, making it more likely that action taken are consistent with the company's strategy and reducing the likelihood that short-run performance will be enhanced at the expense of long-term performance.

2. A manager who takes over a business segment typically inherent many committed costs over which the manager has no control. These committed costs may be relevant in assessing the performance of the business segment as an investment but make it difficult to fairly assess the performance of the manager relative to other managers.

3. A manager who is evaluated based on return on investment (ROI) may reject investment opportunities that are profitable for the whole company but that would have a negative impact on the manager's performance evaluation.
Good points!

1) Would be the obvious example:
In certain alliance A there are two people call them E and R. They constantly attack together and together they go for the maximizing of their ROI. However they never attack real hostile planets, therefore their maximizing of the ROI is a bit myopic, not fully thought through or simply rather selfish!

2) Not relevant! As we always start with a clean sheet at the start of the round and you don't take over a planet.

3) Good point too! But I think i covered this in the section where I talked about 'landing war landings'. Taking the hit for the benefit of your alliance.

The very first point is the best point though and is something a lot of alliances fail at. For instance, I heard some alliances, even when fighting an 'enemy', sometimes take nights of in hitting them to go for 'easy roids'. Which is I think silly!
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Unread 3 Feb 2010, 12:25   #17
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Also, CIYF bitches.
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Unread 3 Feb 2010, 17:29   #18
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Been a while since we had a good ciyf.
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Unread 3 Feb 2010, 18:18   #19
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Quote:
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Been a while since we had a good ciyf.
Not for your mother.
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Unread 3 Feb 2010, 23:19   #20
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Hell yeah alki getting the burn
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Unread 3 Feb 2010, 23:19   #21
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Just like his mum
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Unread 3 Feb 2010, 23:20   #22
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

aBOVE POSTS ALL IN CAPS OBVIOUSLY
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Unread 3 Feb 2010, 23:21   #23
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Re: The Ministry Teaching Courses present: ROI (Return on Investment)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knight Theamion View Post
Good points!

1) Would be the obvious example:
In certain alliance A there are two people call them E and R. They constantly attack together and together they go for the maximizing of their ROI. However they never attack real hostile planets, therefore their maximizing of the ROI is a bit myopic, not fully thought through or simply rather selfish!

2) Not relevant! As we always start with a clean sheet at the start of the round and you don't take over a planet.

3) Good point too! But I think i covered this in the section where I talked about 'landing war landings'. Taking the hit for the benefit of your alliance.

The very first point is the best point though and is something a lot of alliances fail at. For instance, I heard some alliances, even when fighting an 'enemy', sometimes take nights of in hitting them to go for 'easy roids'. Which is I think silly!
Alternative calculation
In some cases the Return on Investment (ROI) may be calculated using the following formula:
Return on Investment =
Net Income + Interest(1 - Tax Rate)
--------------------------------------
Book Value of Assets
Net Income is increased by interest after taxes. This measure is more accurate because companies can have a lot of cash that earns interest.
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