Round 19 Predictions

[Furious]

Originally Posted by Heartless

it should be a clear win for eXilition

But thats no fun!!

[Almeida]

1. Omen
2. LCH
3. ToF
4. Angels
5. ND
6. eXi
7-10. Subh/xVx/VsN/TGV dunno what order

[Furious]

Originally Posted by Almeida

1. Omen
2. LCH
3. ToF
4. Angels
5. ND
6. eXi
7-10. Subh/xVx/VsN/TGV dunno what order

why exi so low?

[Gate]

Originally Posted by Furious

why exi so low?

He's eX (or ex-eX), and eX will want to downplay their chances in order to persuade us they're not a threat. Whether they actually are or not, or whether intentionally or not (sorry almi! ).


Despite what Heartless says, I still think eX can easily be prevented from winning. All it takes is for a few decent alliances to decide not to take the risk and pan them from the first week. 2 weeks or so of an absolute smashing from 150-200 organised players would make it very difficult for eXilition if they are playing slightly under strength.

Of course, the other alliances will probably end up infighting/trying to pussyfoot around doing their share of the work, collapse, lose and spend the time between rounds trying to persuade everyone that it was someone else's fault.

[Hude]

eXilition has 100% efficiency when I'm playing, therefore eX won't win (I'm not playing).

The ones failing to see the sarcasm will be shot.

I also predict AD will continue to be shit.

[Cartman]

Originally Posted by Gate

Despite what Heartless says, I still think eX can easily be prevented from winning. All it takes is for a few decent alliances to decide not to take the risk and pan them from the first week. 2 weeks or so of an absolute smashing from 150-200 organised players would make it very difficult for eXilition if they are playing slightly under strength.

like nd is trying to do?? ooh yeh lets block against an ally which has around half of your own memberbase.... each time we come with the truth.. that we aint playin like we usually do.. someone with to much time comes up with that sci-fi movie idea in his head... u seriously should write some soap series..
"they are saying that they arent playing so we think they are not so they can come bash us".. or maby "they are saying they aint playing to make us think they are playing so when they are not playing we say that they think they are not playing but they are playing" or somethin like that.. and yes i have to much time aswell but i dont use it sitting around thinking what an ally will do when they say quite clearly what they are doing..

[Squidly]

Originally Posted by Cartman

like nd is trying to do?? ooh yeh lets block against an ally which has around half of your own memberbase.... each time we come with the truth.. that we aint playin like we usually do.. someone with to much time comes up with that sci-fi movie idea in his head... u seriously should write some soap series..
"they are saying that they arent playing so we think they are not so they can come bash us".. or maby "they are saying they aint playing to make us think they are playing so when they are not playing we say that they think they are not playing but they are playing" or somethin like that.. and yes i have to much time aswell but i dont use it sitting around thinking what an ally will do when they say quite clearly what they are doing..

Most exi or exi sympathizers all vehemently denying trying to win over the course of a few threads? I swear 1up pulled this stunt in earlier rounds. The decision to actually play two rounds in a row, and you're saying you're not going to try to win it?

It's a bad thing when even *I* can pick out crap propaganda

edit: I predict that 3+ exi members will come out at the end of the round saying "We didn't actually plan to win the round"

[pig]

1up never predicted to win round 12, we had a reduced memberbase and went into with every intention to kingmake.

Maybe eXilition feel the need to do the same?

Originally Posted by Squidly

I swear 1up pulled this stunt in earlier rounds.

Every alliance does it. 1up and eXilition aren't the only exclusive alliances who have/had done so. No one wants there alliance to be targetted t72.

[Cartman]

well its SO bad propaganda u should see its not propaganda at all...

we arent stupid.. that trick 1up pulled wouldnt work now...

we have said it before and ill say it again.. pa is getting boring as fck, so we try to make it fun again by actually having more fun in the round by playing with a core and change our goals.. and plan is to train a command to take over etc for the future..

[Cartman]

Originally Posted by pig

1up never predicted to win round 12, we had a reduced memberbase and went into with every intention to kingmake.

Maybe eXilition feel the need to do the same?

exactly.. tho we arent intending to kingmake.. rather focus to have fun ourselves

[pig]

Originally Posted by cartman

that trick 1up pulled wouldnt work now...

It wasn't a trick, seriously as we got to #1 we couldn't believe it. We were just too damn good. Maybe eXilition are the same?

[Lei~]

I intend to believe cartman, when he says they dont intend to win. The other question is: Is eXilition in "playing for fun" mode still better than any alliance out there? Maybe, but i dont think so. If ppl should think they are, then they should probably still attack eXi at tick 72. This would prove a very low selfesteem though.

[Gate]

Originally Posted by Cartman

well its SO bad propaganda u should see its not propaganda at all...

we arent stupid.. that trick 1up pulled wouldnt work now...

we have said it before and ill say it again.. pa is getting boring as fck, so we try to make it fun again by actually having more fun in the round by playing with a core and change our goals.. and plan is to train a command to take over etc for the future..

This isn't my first barbeque.

I've heard all this stuff before. If I were in control of an alliance now, the most logical choice is to overpower and flatten eXilition early in the round to ensure that they don't win easily, therefore giving my own alliance a chance to win.

Considering you claim to know what ND are up to, maybe you'd like to check those sources again to see whether I've actually had anything to do with ND since the end of round 17.

[Cartman]

wasnt regarding u as ND.. i know ur not ND anymore.. tho it was more a kick in their direction.. and ye i see the logic IF we were playing like we usually do... was truly not ment to be a flame against u..

[Gate]

Originally Posted by Cartman

wasnt regarding u as ND.. i know ur not ND anymore.. tho it was more a kick in their direction.. and ye i see the logic IF we were playing like we usually do... was truly not ment to be a flame against u..

Hehe, that's fine

Whether eX are playing properly or not is nearly irrelavent. The mere possibility of eXilition coming out in any sort of force is enough to pose an immense threat to the top spot.

Taking a look at the risk:reward aspect of it, HCs are presented with a particular problem. Leaving you alone, they only stand a good chance of winning IF you're being honest. Hitting you hardcore from early, if you're telling the truth, it won't be a long fight and won't cost them too much (after all, sacrificing a few day's growth to remove the spectre of eXilition is a great bargain IMO). If you're bluffing, then they stand a chance of defeating the single best alliance in the game and therefore giving themselves a chance.

Logically, hitting eXilition early, unless you can conclusively prove that you will not win, is the only way alliances can ensure a chance at winning. The other option is taking a gamble on whether you're telling the truth or not, and considering eX's reputation, that's not a very good gamble IMO.

Sucks for you I know, it's not your fault you're much better than everyone else. But if alliances want to win, then they have to take the necessary steps.

[Cartman]

Originally Posted by Gate

Logically, hitting eXilition early, unless you can conclusively prove that you will not win, is the only way alliances can ensure a chance at winning. The other option is taking a gamble on whether you're telling the truth or not, and considering eX's reputation, that's not a very good gamble IMO.

Sucks for you I know, it's not your fault you're much better than everyone else. But if alliances want to win, then they have to take the necessary steps.

that first point.. like i stated before ... we intend to have fun.. not to be kingmakers.. but we certainly should be able to make someone not win...

and thnx for the nice words hehe

omg ive like doubled my postcount in a week now.. time to stop reading AD for a year or two i guess

[Dopec]

Originally Posted by Hude

I also predict AD will continue to be shit.

There is no need to predict that since this thread so valiantly proves how it continues to be shit even between rounds.

as for predictions:

1. Omen
2. ToF
3. LCH
4. xVx
5. eXilition

[exblade]

honestly i think theres gonna be some surprizes this round as to who takes top10.
i think theres gonna be some alliances that no one would expect to hit certain ranks that will hit those ranks.

maybe heroic will come out on top.
but seriously i think theres gonna be a huge war and some up and coming alliances that will rule

[ChipZ^]

I don't think eXilition even has 30 members.

eXilition wont win next round.

I don't care who wins next round as long as they deserve it.

[Gate]

Originally Posted by ChipZ^

I don't think eXilition even has 30 members.

About 3 days before round 14, ND had confirmed/signed up a grand total of 14 members.

I don't think that only having 30 players right now is going to be any particular barrier to eXilition.

[ChipZ^]

Originally Posted by Gate

About 3 days before round 14, ND had confirmed/signed up a grand total of 14 members.

I don't think that only having 30 players right now is going to be any particular barrier to eXilition.

Afaik, recrutment for next round is closed. Over half the current members havnt had thier membership renewed. I doubt very much that at the start of the next round eX have over 35 members.

[Heartless]

Originally Posted by ChipZ^

Afaik, recrutment for next round is closed. Over half the current members havnt had thier membership renewed. I doubt very much that at the start of the next round eX have over 35 members.

Lucky exilition that at the end of the round you can have more

That's not convincing, really. We shall wait how next round ends to see who of us is correct

[Tomkat]

Originally Posted by ChipZ^

Afaik, recrutment for next round is closed.

No, they just told you that because they hate you

[Gate]

Originally Posted by ChipZ^

Afaik, recrutment for next round is closed. Over half the current members havnt had thier membership renewed. I doubt very much that at the start of the next round eX have over 35 members.

I don't buy it.

Even at 35 members eXilition will be an immense threat to anyone, and with any in-round recruitment, should find it easy enough to challenge for top spot.

After all, eX won round 13 with just 62 members, despite opposition from 1up (the only other PaX alliance that has military capability to give eXi a challenge), and other alliances fielding upwards of 90 members.

In fact, having 30-35 members (with maybe just another 5-10 sitting outside the tag and 3 fleeting) still gives eXilition pretty much just as good a chance. They will have to crawl up the rankings slowly, will probably be ignored early and then other alliances will get bogged down in fighting with each other. They will then argue over who shed the last blood, or find it difficult to stop hostilities easily, or distrust each other. Efficient opposition to eXi won't form (like in round 13), and potential opponents will fall one by one (like in round 13), and eXilition will have a fantastic chance.

[Nitros]

Originally Posted by Gate

I don't buy it.

Even at 35 members eXilition will be an immense threat to anyone, and with any in-round recruitment, should find it easy enough to challenge for top spot.

After all, eX won round 13 with just 62 members, despite opposition from 1up (the only other PaX alliance that has military capability to give eXi a challenge), and other alliances fielding upwards of 90 members.

In fact, having 30-35 members (with maybe just another 5-10 sitting outside the tag and 3 fleeting) still gives eXilition pretty much just as good a chance. They will have to crawl up the rankings slowly, will probably be ignored early and then other alliances will get bogged down in fighting with each other. They will then argue over who shed the last blood, or find it difficult to stop hostilities easily, or distrust each other. Efficient opposition to eXi won't form (like in round 13), and potential opponents will fall one by one (like in round 13), and eXilition will have a fantastic chance.

you think the universe falles for another tactic lsuch as 1up used (succesfully)?
who knows :")

[K-W]

Originally Posted by Nitros

you think the universe falles for another tactic lsuch as 1up used (succesfully)?
who knows :")

The fact that Exilition arent showing up at the top of everyones list suggests it certainly could be used successfully. Its not as if 1up really tricked anyone anyway, they just kept out of the spotlight and let shortsighted, lazy alliances ignore them. And this is why even if everyone thought exilition was planning to do this, they could still be completely successful. Its one thing to know or suspect an alliance is hiding its strength, its another to do something about it.

The most important point, however, is that exilitions plots are to an extent irrelevent. Whether or not exilition plans to do anything, if they have a solid core of 35 high score planets and there are people available for them to recruit, they will be able to make a play for the round. And if they have any number of loyalists or friends playing out of tag (whether they planned to join later or not) it would make it that much easier to make such a play.

[Synthetic_Sid]

I suspect Exi will win the round even if they don't intend to. Last round exi were a LOT better than 1up and 1up were a LOT better than anyone else. With 1up not playing the gap in quality between Exi and the rest is huge. 1up won a round with 2/3 max members, i suspect doing it with half wouldn't be too tricky.

The only two alliances I see as having a shot of beating them to #1 are Omen and xVx. The rest are either crap and/or under-strength.

[jerome]

i'm sure of one thing at least, our good friends lch back at #2

[jerome]

actually, i just remembered with subh and omen's antics in the past 2 rounds, lch might have some real trouble for their usual role.

[BloodyButcher]

I think VisioN,Omen, or LCH might have a good chance winning, allthough i dont know fck about politics this round.
Allthough, i hope ToF and xVx will do good.

1. VsN
2. LCH
3. Omen
4. xVx
5. ToF
6. SiN
7. SubH
8. ND
9. F-Crew
10. Peniz alliance

[Tietäjä]

Originally Posted by jerome

actually, i just remembered with subh and omen's antics in the past 2 rounds, lch might have some real trouble for their usual role.

What did we do last round?

[pig]

1. eXilition
2. Omen
3. LCH
4. xVx
5. ToF

Thats the top 5, eXil at the top **** knows where the rest will be.

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Cartman

that first point.. like i stated before ... we intend to have fun.. not to be kingmakers.. but we certainly should be able to make someone not win...

Hit us and we will stop winning.... is what you effectively said.


If you are gonna try propaganda, at least make an effort.

[lokken]

Originally Posted by Cartman

that first point.. like i stated before ... we intend to have fun.. not to be kingmakers.. but we certainly should be able to make someone not win...

and thnx for the nice words hehe

omg ive like doubled my postcount in a week now.. time to stop reading AD for a year or two i guess

Why should anyone give a flying fig about how you claim you intend to play?

[Sjor]

1 exil
2 LCH
3 Omen
4 ND
5 Vision
6 ToF

not posting about angels as id be biased and put them on #1

reason for exil on #1 is the fact that they have a lot of members that are well skilled and that would probably leave if the ally would play half hearted

im of to www.oktoberfest.de

see ya

[aNgRyDuCk]

Originally Posted by Cartman

exactly.. tho we arent intending to kingmake.. rather focus to have fun ourselves

and by "having fun', I assume you mean that you would like all your members to have successful attacks, good planet scores, and an overall good round, so depending on the size of your memberbase, much like 1up in round 12....if you "happened" to have the high score, then wow, we won etc..... if this isn't your intention, what exactly is the point?
(not sure if the launch and go method of Asc is the intention here or not)
if you intend on providing defense for your members, providing attacks for your members, and providing a structured command to facilitate your members... .then you are in fact playing to win, and to be honest, whats the point of playing a game if your ultimate goal is not to win....

whatever works for you, it's your story , so tell it like you want ofcourse..just the point seems to escape me.

[Cartman]

Originally Posted by lokken

Why should anyone give a flying fig about how you claim you intend to play?

seems like u do when u use time flaming it

[Cartman]

angryduck..

everyone is playing to win.. but our win aint to realistic...atm eX is in a change period.. alot of command is/wants to quit pa.. get back to rl.. so new command must come up.. using this round to prepare eX for the future.. therefore the winning round goal is kinda pushed back.. and to get up the new command its easyer playing with alot less players... and about the fun part.. u can have fun without winning.. fun aint all about having a huge planet..

[aNgRyDuCk]

well like a lot of predictions in this thread.... only time will tell...

if eXi begins to look good in average score, and shows any competance at all, which tbh I have a hard time believing it wouldn't....I'd have to agree with Gate though, as it would be a smart move if alliances pinned you guys back early and often, so that another round 12 doesn't happen. If you guys come out and win round 19, good on you, it seems to me though that this round shows the best possible opportunity in quite some time for a new alliance to emerge on top, and you guys having a FUN win, would certainly shoot that in the ass.

I'm certainly not here to argue your strategy, as I have no facts one way or the other to base an intelligent opinion on..... but I do know, that when you've had success, anything less becomes insufficient (as a player, and as an alliance)

to be perfectly honest, I never saw much fun in getting your ass kicked

[jerome]

Originally Posted by Tietäjä

What did we do last round?

i meant the round before last for you.

[Tietäjä]

Originally Posted by jerome

i meant the round before last for you.

Which was our first round. I argue that we did rather well for our first round. During the second round, we went off a whole lot different by approach, and ended up doing well again - although due to a certain person or a pair of them, our plans didn't go quite as you would have liked. I'm not sure how people figure it, but for an inexperienced high command at round 17, and very little staff, we finished up the round rather decent. Omen at the moment is not the Omen it was round 17.

[ReligFree]

Sorry but whatever you eXi command types say; you are playing to win. You probably will win and if anyone thinks otherwise there nuts.

[JonnyBGood]

Predictions are a funny old thing. Personally I didn't predict exilition to win because I presume everyone will **** them over anyways. I mean yeah sure ex are great and all but look at the numbers. If they do as they say and start the round with 30 members (if they don't and go in with 50 they're going to get ****ed definitely) that's 90 fleets. If two other reasonable competitors for #1 decide to ally temporarily to get ex out of the game they can hit them with three times that number of fleets quite easily. Now considering this will take place relatively early on before anyone has a vaguely meaningful fleet size advantage ex will have to hold back and move attention away by slowplaying their hand. This can be done fairly easily as we've seen in previous rounds of PA by intelligent tag management.

However ex are in a weaker situation than say 1up in r17. The smaller memberbase means that it's easier to recognise at an earlier stage the actual state of the alliance. Remember as well that recruiting members from other alliances isn't going to work, you don't gain the score they previously had and as any recruitment is going to take place late-round this will be important (if recruitment takes place earlier problems I mentioned above will emerge). That said we now have the alliance merge function and we at ascendancy would be delighted to really **** up someone's round by merging at the last possible minute with exilition and holding on for another win. Because quite frankly we don't like any of you people

[Cartman]

hahaha lol jbg.. nice plan

[the Other Guy]

he, i love exis nub-recruiting fake this round.
i think there are actually really some ppl out there that really believe what exi-hc is telling them:
since i know as i for myself tested it, all the "nubs" which try to join get neglected or just ignored.
try it for yourself ;-)

ahh, and @ topic

1 - Angels/Vision/LCH
2 - Omen
3 - LCH/Angels/Vision
4 - Vision/LCH/Angels
5 - eXiltation

*that is, if exi is stopped. If not then like last round, exi -> Omen

[NitinA]

1) Omen
2) Angels
3) LCH
4) VsN
5) eXilition

If a top alliance decides eX is a threat to the top spot and targets eX, then that's a legit strategy I suppose, though the political climate should always be weighed before making any decisions, and that won't be decided till the round actually starts. GL to eX and all! First round I won't have a planet or play w/eX playing

-NitinA

[Gate]

Originally Posted by the Other Guy

since i know as i for myself tested it, all the "nubs" which try to join get neglected or just ignored.
try it for yourself ;-)

Hate to piss on the bonfire, but eX are playing the 'we're not actually recruiting' card, as far as I saw.

[Scream]

#1 LCH
#2 eXi
#3 Omen
#4 P|M
#5 VsN
#6 xVx
#7 ToF
#8 F-Crew
#9 ND
#10 Angels

[wielklem]

scream you gonna help with that then?

[Proxi]

I predict Benneh not paying, being t20 for a while, then losing intrest remarkably quickly \o/