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Unread 2 Nov 2008, 15:43   #1
Achilles
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Election Prediction Thread

Context: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/...08/7704636.stm

People (Republicans) often cite the Bradley effect as a reason why the election will be closer that the polls suggest. But, as an avid digester of a broad range of American cultural outpourings, I've recently started to wonder if maybe the reverse isn't true, that Obama will in fact have a wider margin of victory than expected. A reverse-Bradley effect if you will, although I suspect that race may well be one of the less important factors.

The truth is that more and more Republicans are becoming disaffected with the manner in which their country has been run lately. They no longer identify with their party and subsequently it's candidates, in all elections, and their campaigns. McCain's own selection from the primary is symptomatic of this fact. As is his selection of Palin, a move clearly designed to hold his own base together rather than to sway those that lie betwixt the Red and Blue. This disaffected base may not betray their party publicly, to the pollsters, but I suspect many will once they enter the privacy of the voting booth.

I think the McCain campaign has seen these cracks developing for quite some time and recently Obama's people have targeted states once presumed unwinnable. Those who follow British politics will remember the mood before the 97 election where Tony Blair's Labour swept to power in an massive, and largely unexpected, landslide. Campaigning on a ticket of a "New Labour" that would bring change from the corrupt and elitist policies of the Tories, he won over a huge part of that same Tory base. So crushing was that loss for the party as a whole that I think it's fair to say they are only now recovering.

I think something similar will happen here. What do other people think?
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Unread 2 Nov 2008, 16:28   #2
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Achilles View Post
Context: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/...08/7704636.stm

People (Republicans) often cite the Bradley effect as a reason why the election will be closer that the polls suggest. But, as an avid digester of a broad range of American cultural outpourings, I've recently started to wonder if maybe the reverse isn't true, that Obama will in fact have a wider margin of victory than expected. A reverse-Bradley effect if you will, although I suspect that race may well be one of the less important factors.

The truth is that more and more Republicans are becoming disaffected with the manner in which their country has been run lately. They no longer identify with their party and subsequently it's candidates, in all elections, and their campaigns. McCain's own selection from the primary is symptomatic of this fact. As is his selection of Palin, a move clearly designed to hold his own base together rather than to sway those that lie betwixt the Red and Blue. This disaffected base may not betray their party publicly, to the pollsters, but I suspect many will once they enter the privacy of the voting booth.

I think the McCain campaign has seen these cracks developing for quite some time and recently Obama's people have targeted states once presumed unwinnable. Those who follow British politics will remember the mood before the 97 election where Tony Blair's Labour swept to power in an massive, and largely unexpected, landslide. Campaigning on a ticket of a "New Labour" that would bring change from the corrupt and elitist policies of the Tories, he won over a huge part of that same Tory base. So crushing was that loss for the party as a whole that I think it's fair to say they are only now recovering.

I think something similar will happen here. What do other people think?
i'm not sure how convinced i am about the reverse bradley affect. admitting to a pollster that you wouldn't vote for someone because they're black would seem a much larger faux pas than admitting you're having second thoughts about supporting a different political party from who you normally vote for. especially when the one you're considering switching too, has made it such a smooth transition by offering the exact same policy on everything.
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Unread 2 Nov 2008, 16:47   #3
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

The Bradley effect itself has been considered by many to have irrelevant or negligible since the early 90's. The median range for poll error changed from -4% (iirc) for Bradley in 82 to a miniscule positive by the early 90's. The data I've seen in that regard encompassed many elections and would seem to be pretty solid. I really only referenced Bradley because it's a good example of an unexpected poll deviation which is what I am predicting here, simply in the other direction.

As for pollsters, the vast majority of polls only ask you who you are voting for, not why you are doing so. I was much more making the point that people who had previously voted Bush/Republican now believe they made a mistake. People may not acknowledge this change of heart publicly, either because they simply don't like admitting mistakes (most people probably fall into this category to some extent) or feel a need to remain outwardly loyal to something they once genuinely believed in even if, perhaps, they no longer do. This could be for reasons of pride or perhaps to appear steadfast in front of other Republicans in their families or neighbourhoods. They may well be inclined to ignore such pressures in the privacy of the voting booth.

Last edited by Achilles; 2 Nov 2008 at 16:53.
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Unread 2 Nov 2008, 18:05   #4
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

In a recent poll, 40 percent of all white Americans admitted to holding at least a partly negative view toward blacks. I see no reason why people would claim they support Obama in an attempt to look tolerant if they have no objection to expressing racist tendencies in general.

Strangely the article draws exactly the opposite conclusion, by a logic I have as yet not grasped.
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Unread 2 Nov 2008, 19:44   #5
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

I can see a "reverse bradley effect" of sorts in the polls - in terms of people from deeply republican areas not wanting to admit that they are going to vote for Obama so simply say they are going to vote McCain. Because quite simply there are areas of America that Obama isn't the boogeyman just because of race but also because large number of people don't identify with someone who in their eyes is an all out liberal. As for the Bradley effect, here's an interesting commentary from someone in the Bradley campaign.

While race will be some kind of factor, I think this election will be down to whether last minute scare tactics from mccain are going to persuade people who are going to vote Obama simply because the economy is so desperately bad who wouldn't otherwise vote democrat to vote for him.

Early voting has undoubtedly put Obama at an advantage, as its given him more time to get out the vote and less chance for anything McCain does late in the day to be as effective. He's also got the ground presence to get people to go out and vote for him and the democrats seem more motivated than ever this year to go out and win this election.

All this aside, despite sites like fivethirtyeight and electoral-vote suggesting that McCain is bleeding everywhere, I think it's closer than people would like to admit. Nevertheless, Obama has got several combinations available to him to win and if say 2 of Pennsylvania (and this one looks the most likely of the 4), Virginia, North Carolina and Florida go blue, McCain would have to win Missouri, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and one other state like New Hampshire or Iowa (currently both safely in the DEM column) to win.

It's a tall order for McCain but not impossible, even with the numbers looking overwhelming. However, Obama's run such a well organised campaign you think he deserves it simply because of the maths regardless of political view. Obviously there's a potential for a landslide of massive proportion where Obama wins all the competitive states like the dems did in 2006, doubt it though.
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Unread 3 Nov 2008, 01:25   #6
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

The whole Bradley thing, whilst interesting, is an event that took place 26 years ago. I'd be surprised if attitudes with regards to race hadn't changed in that time in Obama's favour. It also doesn't help that it was an election for governor, and not for president - I'm not sure that the Bradley result is indicative of anything significant.

I think the result's going to be a larger margin than predicted in favour of Obama - not because of race, but because he's advertised himself as being more removed from the Bush administration than McCain has, and has had the freedom to leverage that separation more so than McCain. Bush has an approval rating as low as Carter did when he left office, and a stone's throw from Nixon's exit rating if the Wall Street Journal's to be believed. I don't think it's a failing of McCain that there's such a gap between the candidates - I can't see how any Republican candidate could have positioned themselves far enough from Bush to be viable without swinging so far to the centre as to be mocked by the Republican base.
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Unread 3 Nov 2008, 08:52   #7
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk View Post
In a recent poll, 40 percent of all white Americans admitted to holding at least a partly negative view toward blacks. I see no reason why people would claim they support Obama in an attempt to look tolerant if they have no objection to expressing racist tendencies in general.
.
Dubious reasoning. Having a 'negative view towards blacks' may be empirically justifiable in a society where blacks are statistically more likely to commit crime and be poorly educated. It only becomes racism if it goes beyond just having a negative view towards blacks-as-they-are-today, and turns into a negative view of blacks in general. As such, theres no reason why a person with negative views towards blacks-as-they-are-today would have any racist views towards a successful middle-class black man who didnt represent the aspects of black culture which they disliked. So theres no inherent reason why the people who are reporting negative views towards blacks would be more or less likely to vote Obama.

I have negative views about people living on Glaswegian council estates because theyre statistically more likely to be awful people, but this doesnt mean I would be less likely to vote for a politican who grew up on a Glaswegian council estate.

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Unread 3 Nov 2008, 09:05   #8
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Nodrog View Post
Dubious reasoning. Having a 'negative view towards blacks' may be empirically justifiable in a society where blacks are statistically more likely to commit crime and be poorly educated. It only becomes racism if it goes beyond just having a negative view towards blacks-as-they-are-today, and turns into a negative view of blacks in general. As such, theres no reason why a person with negative views towards blacks-as-they-are-today would have any racist views towards a successful middle-class black man who didnt represent the aspects of black culture which they disliked. So theres no inherent reason why the people who are reporting negative views towards blacks would be more or less likely to vote Obama.
I think I pretty much said as much in my previous post.

If people say they don't like black people as much as white people, why would they proceed by claiming they will vote for a black man, while in fact intending to do otherwise?

Of course, I can think of various reasons for not voting for Obama, but the Bradley effect is not one of them.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog View Post
I have negative views about people living on Glaswegian council estates because theyre statistically more likely to be awful people, but this doesnt mean I would be less likely to vote for a politican who grew up on a Glaswegian council estate.
But would you tell pollsters you were going to vote for a Glaswegian if you were actually going to vote for a Londoner?
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Unread 4 Nov 2008, 03:16   #9
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Exclamation Re: Election Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Achilles View Post
I was much more making the point that people who had previously voted Bush/Republican now believe they made a mistake. People may not acknowledge this change of heart publicly, either because they simply don't like admitting mistakes (most people probably fall into this category to some extent) or feel a need to remain outwardly loyal to something they once genuinely believed in even if, perhaps, they no longer do. This could be for reasons of pride or perhaps to appear steadfast in front of other Republicans in their families or neighbourhoods. They may well be inclined to ignore such pressures in the privacy of the voting booth.
I'm not really seeing your point here as most polls are conducted over the telephone and are semi-anonymous* and confidential. They're not much more public than a polling booth from my perspective. The pollster on the telephone doesn't know if you previously voted Bush/Republican unless you tell them. If you're otherwise too embarrassed to say you're voting for Obama then just tell the pollster that you're a lifelong Democrat or an independent or whatever.


Anyway, if the polls are right (overall), then Obama should win with 5-6% of the popular vote and about 300-310 electoral votes (270 needed to win). If the polls are wrong... well then I guess anything could happen. :|

I wouldn't be too surprised to see it a bit closer, but I would be quite surprised if McCain pulls it out (although it would be worth it just to see Keith Olbermann's head explode).



*The polling organization may have a fair amount of information on you but I suspect they don't share much--if any--of that with the interviewer, just to minimize bias creeping into the results.
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Unread 4 Nov 2008, 10:52   #10
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama will win. Mark my words. It's already in motion
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Unread 4 Nov 2008, 12:37   #11
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tactictus
I'm not really seeing your point here as most polls are conducted over the telephone and are semi-anonymous* and confidential. They're not much more public than a polling booth from my perspective.
It's completely different. In one case you are having a conversation with someone who knows a lot more about you than you about them and who is going to record and publish that information. Which, in the end, doesn't actually matter for anything other than a squiggly line on a graph. In the other you walk into a box alone, cast your votes anonymously on a machine and your decision has a direct effect on who will govern you, the future direction of the country and all these important things that actually matter.
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Unread 4 Nov 2008, 18:29   #12
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

Father, in the name of Jesus, we come to You right now asking for a miracle in this election. Lord, we lift up to You right now Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin. Lord, we ask that You would just wrap Your arms around them and their families at this critical time. Father, we ask for miracle upon miracle in this election. We know that only You can turn the tide of evil in this election. Father, as we await the final days of the election, we ask in complete faith that You would allow the truth to be known across this land.

Lord, we ask for forgiveness for putting You last…Father, please heal our land and homes, allow us to have another chance to love You the way you should be loved. Lord, we ask specifically for John and Sarah’s health, wisdom, words, actions and their campaign staff. Lord, we lift them all up to You now. Father, we also specifically ask for the voters in many states who are battleground states. Lord, please convict the hearts of voters in Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, North Dakota, Virginia, Nevada and Colorado .

Father we beg for every electoral vote. Lord, we lift all of our needs up to You now. In the name of Jesus we claim victory in Your name. Lord, we pray for Your will to be done in a mighty way…we know that this election can and will glorify You! Father, place the man you would have to lead our country in a Christian way on November 4. We love You, Lord. We await Your holy miracles…

In Jesus’ Name we pray, Amen.
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Unread 4 Nov 2008, 19:48   #13
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

Or not
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Unread 17 Nov 2008, 01:52   #14
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

The staff hiring is exciting!
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Unread 23 Nov 2008, 22:15   #15
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Re: Election Prediction Thread

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The staff hiring is exciting!
About 80$ ex-Clinton administration wanks.
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