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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 05:36   #1
Kurashima
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[Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Amazingly, someone asked me to bring this back as they felt the current football threads were a bit bland and completely non interactive. So , this week , The Shima has placed the following bets after his 6/6 midweek success.

Bet 1 : 5 teams , 10 trebles , £1 per treble.
Bristol City v MK Dons. Bristol City to Win @ 1.57
Dunfermline v Inverness CT. Dunfermline to Win @ 1.83 (SOOOOO generous)
St Johnstone v Hamilton. St Johnstone to Win @ 1.80
Ayr v Alloa. Ayr to win @ 1.66
Elgin v East Stirling. Elgin to win @ 1.16

Bet 2 : 5 teams , 10 trebles , £1 per treble

Newcastle v Fulham. Newcastle to win @ 1.53
Man Utd v Man City. Man Utd to win @ 1.40
Livingston v Rangers. Rangers to win @ 1.22
Feyenoord v N A C Breda. Feyenoord to win @ 1.33
Sheff Utd v Gillingham. Sheff Utd to win @ 1.53

Bet 3 : 5 teams, 10 trebles, £1 per treble

Chelsea v Everton. Chelsea to win @ 1.40
Liverpool v Birmingham. Liverpool to win @ 1.44
Reading v Stoke. Reading to win @ 1.70
Wigan v Plymouth. Wigan to win @ 1.44
Celtic v Kilmarnock. Celtic to win @ 1.16

As usual gentlemen, please feel free to provide feedback, and laugh wholeheartedly should any of these fail to come in. Just remember.

If Kura gets 4/5 on any bet, he wins back his stake plus 30%
If Kura gets 5/5 on any bet, he gets back his stake for all 3 bets plus a few % (usually works out around £35).

Id actually like others who do weekend betting to contribute to this thread, just so i can gauge their feedback on what im doing wrong and where theyre going right.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 05:41   #2
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

The only ones I'd argue against atm are betting on the Chelsea and Newcastle games... they've been pretty hit or miss for goals.

I also reckon Stoke are a much better side than Reading this season.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 05:43   #3
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunday8pm
The only ones I'd argue against atm are betting on the Chelsea and Newcastle games... they've been pretty hit or miss for goals.

I also reckon Stoke are a much better side than Reading this season.
The league table shows Reading in contention for automatic promotion, and Stoke struggling to maintain playoff aspirations after a superb start.

And Chelsea at home are almost unbeatable. Mourinho has such a talented squad to work with, and the Mutu thing wont be a distraction.

Newcastle at home, against a Fulham side who have a horrible away record this season, looks a total home banker to me, especially after that midweek performance.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 05:56   #4
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

I reckon pairing a skillful striker and a slow striker up against two of the most physical young defenders with absolutely no presure on them in the premiership may stifle newcastle.

Everton have been absolutely sound defensively this season in defence AND midfield, while Duff and Robben seem to be ripping up a few sides I'd like to see how they handle Everton's midfield followed by their resolute defence with only Eidur Gudjohnssen posing any threat upfront.

With regards to measuring Reading and Stoke against their league positions at this juncture of the season, I reckon it'll prove Folly.

Reading have already played and came away with a 1-0 win against stoke a couple months back and hence Stoke have the motivation and the knowledge of the side.

Reading have in their last 4 fixtures faced Leeds(Draw), Crewe(win), Coventry(loss) and Plymouth(draw) and have only managed 5 from a possible 12 when 9 was definately for the taking.

On the flipside Stoke have faced the bulk of their tricky fixtures already hence the league position that perhaps betrays the sides strength. Their last seven fixtures in order of most recent have been.. Wigan (loss) Millwall (Win) Leicester (draw) West Ham (loss) Reading (Loss) QPR (Loss) Leeds (Draw).

Now while Stoke aren't looking too good for goals they have a strong defence that doesn't leak many in De Goey, Taggart and Duberry, in fact they've only conceded what could be described as special efforts in the goal department recently, but I will concede that having Akinbiyi in your strike force isn't promising (though Asaba and the recent youth upcomer Greenacre are looking better).

Reading however have just recently lost their star defender to Coventry and seem shakey at the back, they don't seem to be a team that creates anything special and just seems to create bread and butter goals against sides who are off form.

Perhaps Reading should be around 1.8 but feel warned :P
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 12:23   #5
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

I would contribute, however after having a very good start to the season on the gambling front, I'm now doing absolute shite.

I've probably given back my £500 in winnings along with a little bit more so I'm going to stay away from gambling until after christmas.

Goodluck!
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 14:16   #6
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

With odds that short wouldnt it make more sense doing 4s and 5s rather than trebles? 2 pound on all 5 foursomes within a group, and then a couple of quid on the 5 accumlator, seems intuitively to be more likely to give a decent win, although I've not thought about it in great detail. The way youre doing it seems to avoid any real risk (since youre betting on small groups of almost guaranteed results), but it doesnt seem likely to win much either. I think I'd personally try it with 2 groups of 5 teams and then put a fiver on all 5 teams winning each group (total bet = 30 pound, same as yours).

If I were you I'd spend the next few weeks calculating what your profit/loss would have been had you placed the 4's and 5's rather than the 3's (without actually placing the bets), and if you seemed to be winning more that way, switch.

Last edited by Nodrog; 6 Nov 2004 at 14:22.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 15:12   #7
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
The way youre doing it seems to avoid any real risk (since youre betting on small groups of almost guaranteed results), but it doesnt seem likely to win much either.
What you are referring to is commonly known as a "Stonewall Jackson". At least round these parts anyway. There's nothing inherently wrong with it at all. I do it myself. Sometimes.

However, what Kura is doing here is what is known as "Trebles from five" in betting parlance - that's all possible combinations of 3 teams of the five selected. Which is 10. So that's ten possible bets for the five teams selected. At £1 each - which is a tenner. So he's got 30 pounds resting on the outcome of those three bet's he's put on .

To examine bet 1:
If all those teams win, at a £1 a go, then he'll get £40.55 returned. Double the stake and you double the winnings. £10 pound a go would return 405.50.

Assuming he get's the bet up, and they all win, he will win £40.55, that's £30.55 profit.


Bet's 2 and 3:
Bet 2 will return £27.41
Bet 3 will return £28.81

So, that's £30 total stake, with a total possible return of £96.77, so that's a profit of 66.77, he'd treble his money.

Now, where this get's "really" complicated, is that all his bet's don't have to win, he'll just win less money, and see his profit margin go down - it could be that most of his trebles won't come up, in which case he might win something - but not enough to make a profit - it wiould be a loss.


As I've sat here and typed all that, I've just realised that Kura's probably only done 10p trebles - A quid a bet, but it all still works out exactly the same, except obviously his possible returns are a factor of ten less. Silly me.

However I shall press on:

Now, take Bet 1 - he could have instead done an accumulator, which would, for a £1 stake, return £9.96, for a £10 stake it would return £99.58. However the caveat here is that ALL selections MUST win, so the risk involved for a higher return is significantly higher.

Kura is at least guranteed some money back - assuming of course that some of those actually do win.

Personally, I prefer doing 3 away teams to win - "a treble", that's less risky than five teams, more profit than just a straight double. I usually put a fiver on a treble.

Even with picking three teams you have several different bet types to choose from: treble, trixie, patent or doubles from 3.

When I bet on horses I usually do a patent - that's 3 singles, 3 doubles and 1 treble - 1 selection must win to recive a return.

That barely scratches the surface, and as you can see, betting can fantastically complicated.

I'll post my bet's soonish.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 15:18   #8
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
With odds that short wouldnt it make more sense doing 4s and 5s rather than trebles? 2 pound on all 5 foursomes within a group, and then a couple of quid on the 5 accumlator, seems intuitively to be more likely to give a decent win, although I've not thought about it in great detail. The way youre doing it seems to avoid any real risk (since youre betting on small groups of almost guaranteed results), but it doesnt seem likely to win much either. I think I'd personally try it with 2 groups of 5 teams and then put a fiver on all 5 teams winning each group (total bet = 30 pound, same as yours).

If I were you I'd spend the next few weeks calculating what your profit/loss would have been had you placed the 4's and 5's rather than the 3's (without actually placing the bets), and if you seemed to be winning more that way, switch.
Its not a bad strategy nod, but i had previously been playing the game on the basis of 3,4,5 team accumulators at £1 a time. Ive found that the likelihood of getting a 5/5 for the trebles is decent , but not spectacular (in all my time doing it , id say i get about 25-30% of the time a 5/5 result) and that the accumulators actually harm my chances of making any money on this. Remembering i do this for fun, and the aim is to make my original stake, which was placed in early August, and was £30 , last through the entire season. The tactic is actually pretty sound in that i choose 4 really low odd games (between 1.2 and 1.5) and pair them with one perhaps slightly risky one (between 1.6 and 1.8). The 1.8 then essentially magnifies the other poorer odds and means that even a 4/5 will get me back my stake money plus a few quid, and that if two of the trebles come in 4/5 ill have my weekend stake money back for another shot. If any 5/5 come in, I make a profit which ill take straight out and put towards my overdraft (which is pretty small recently).

But I should, in theory , never have to fund these accounts for the entire season unless I have a truly horrific week, and by playing lower odds, i may be denying myself a huge win, but im also insulating myself from that total wipeout. As Rids and Belgy will tell you, looking for 5 away ties on a weekend coupon is a nightmare, as home form is the easiest thing to predict in football, and thus has the lowest odds.

PS : Villa 3-0 up on Pompey. I have that in another bet this weekend
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 15:19   #9
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Are you up or down for the year (/season so far) Kura?
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 15:36   #10
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Belgarath The Sorcerer
What you are referring to is commonly known as a "Stonewall Jackson". At least round these parts anyway. There's nothing inherently wrong with it at all. I do it myself. Sometimes.

However, what Kura is doing here is what is known as "Trebles from five" in betting parlance - that's all possible combinations of 3 teams of the five selected. Which is 10. So that's ten possible bets for the five teams selected. At £1 each - which is a tenner. So he's got 30 pounds resting on the outcome of those three bet's he's put on .

To examine bet 1:
If all those teams win, at a £1 a go, then he'll get £40.55 returned. Double the stake and you double the winnings. £10 pound a go would return 405.50.
.
I know what hes doing, but trebles seem more suited to games where the odds are slightly longer such as 4/5 and the like. When youre dealing with odds as short as Kura is, you have to expect that all 5 teams will win every so often or theres no point even placing the bet. If youre counting on only 3 winning then you should really be picking slightly less certain games imo.

If he done the bet I suggested on group 1 and all 5 teams won, he would win 128 pounds. Thats pretty decent odds. If only 4 teams won then he would get around 13 pound, which is almost his original stake (the bet was 15 pound total). If only 3 teams win then he'd get nothing, but then the money he would have won with the treble would have been small enough to make it practically 0 anyway (it would be less than 5 pound). So, he woud be winning a bit less when 4 teams won, but a LOT more when all 5 teams won. And with odds that short, you should be hoping that all 5 teams win anyway. Plus it'll be a lot more exciting when they do, and thats partly the point of football betting anyway.

edit: if hes doing 10p trebles then /10 all those values, but the relations stand.

Last edited by Nodrog; 6 Nov 2004 at 15:43.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 15:44   #11
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dace
Are you up or down for the year (/season so far) Kura?
ill have to look at currently outstanding bets , but between the bookmakers ive bet with online.

BlueSQ.Com - Currently down £30 , but have £20 @ 7/2 on Toshack for Wales Manager

Ladbrokes.Com - Down £30. Ive removed all remaining funds from that account.

WillHill.Co.Uk - Staked : £315.64 , Returned : £360.16 : Profit : £44.52. Thats including this weeks £30 worth of bets balanced against the original £30 stake.

Totesport.Co.Uk. - Staked : £438.75, Returned : £542.12 : Profit : £103.37. Thats including original £20 stake and this weeks £30 worth of bets.

Coral.Co.uk. - Staked : £20. All funds removed.

In the case of Ladbrokes and Corals , i made original "Deposit £20 and we will match it" deposits , bet the entire amount on short odds games like Celtic , Rangers , Arsenal and Man U , and then removed all the funds and closed the account (I think i made £17 from Corals , but lost the stake with Ladbrokes).

I cant add in the amount of fun it brings to a saturday when youve got a few quid down though. And Belgy , the trebles are £1 bets on 5 teams with 10 possible combinations of treble. Ive tried doing it with 6 teams and 20 possible trebles (for a total stake of £20) but whilst it doubles the prize if it comes in, it also means you need to correctly predict 5/6 to get your money back, which really just is too high a risk, even with short odds.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 15:49   #12
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

We should start a football betting league or something
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 15:54   #13
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Oh , and this weeks bets with Totesport. Again , all £1 trebles over 5 teams for a total stake of £10

Bet 1:

Aston Villa v Portsmouth - Villa to Win (4/5)
Crystal Palace v Arsenal - Arsenal to win (2/5)
Bristol City v MK Dons - Bristol City to win (8/15)
Glasgow Celtic v Kilmarnock - Celtic to win (1/6)
Elgin City v East Stirling - Elgin City to Win (1/7)

Bet 2:

Chelsea v Everton - Chelsea to Win (4/11)
Liverpool v Birmingham - Liverpool to Win (4/9)
Sheff United v Gillingham - Sheff United to win (2/5)
Wigan Athletic v Plymouth - Wigan to Win (2/5)
Luton Town v Wrexham - Luton to win (1/2)

Bet 3:

Cowdenbeath v Gretna - Gretna to Win (2/5)
East Fife v Peterhead - Peterhead to Win (2/5)
Newcastle v Fulham - Newcastle to Win (1/2)
Livingston v Rangers - Rangers to Win (2/11)
Falkirk v Ross County - Falkirk to Win (8/11)
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 15:58   #14
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
We should start a football betting league or something
The idea of starting a football betting league on a forum filled with students who havent even got the cash to go drinking in the Union on a Saturday night probably isnt that great a concept. Besides, id get into trouble with GA for leading young impressionable people astray.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 15:58   #15
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
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Falkirk v Ross County - Falkirk to Win (8/11)


I'm going to that game i am.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 16:00   #16
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Kura, why do you have so many accounts?
To get the best odds?

Also, I think Everton may get a draw at Chelsea. In fact I don't expect bet 3 to reap many rewards at all.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 16:07   #17
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stew
Kura, why do you have so many accounts?
To get the best odds?

Also, I think Everton may get a draw at Chelsea. In fact I don't expect bet 3 to reap many rewards at all.
The main reason is : Free Money

Every company ive had an account with has offered a "Join now and we will match your initiail deposit" offer. Theres usually a twist (as in the free bet has to be made entirely on a single bet, or that you cant withdraw the original amount without giving up the free bet), but thats not a major issue. In the end, ive stuck with the 2 accounts which had the most success. Its not an issue of better odds (although it does mean i can look around when placing the trebles), just ease of use.

And i watched Everton play last week at Goodison, and if thats their tactics against Chelsea, they have absoloutely **** all chance of doing anything. Theyre lightweight up front, and if you were to ask me "Whos going to win all the 50/50's between Leon Osman and Claude Makelele" , id stake the house on it not being Osman.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 16:11   #18
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima
Theyre lightweight up front, and if you were to ask me "Whos going to win all the 50/50's between Leon Osman and Claude Makelele" , id stake the house on it not being Osman.
I wish Everton had allowed us to sign Osman, he was brilliant for us last year Maybe not for 50/50s but for creative play and the odd goal.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 17:30   #19
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Wigan are 2-0 down at home
Elgin are 1-1 with East Stirling.
Chelsea and Liverpool still 0-0

This weekend doesnt look good.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 17:32   #20
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Chelsea 1 - 0 Everton (Robben)

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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 17:35   #21
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Elgin 1 - 2 East Stirling
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 17:40   #22
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Liverpool 0 - 1 Birmingham (Anderton)
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 17:42   #23
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Elgin 1 - 3 East Stirling
Dunfermline 1 - 1 Inverness CT

Its all going Pete Tong
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 17:49   #24
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

The problem with betting a relatively large amount on low-risk bets is that when you do come acropper, it often hurts. It's like betting on 7/8's of the roulette table.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 18:35   #25
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Its not even a relatively large amount, and its not money i really need per se, its just play money for me.

It hurts my pride and ruins the fun more than anything else if they dont come in.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 18:43   #26
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

the one time you bet on the shire to lose is the one time they don't. ouch
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 18:45   #27
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phang
the one time you bet on the shire to lose is the one time they don't. ouch
The fact that the worst team in Britain has beaten the league leaders and 1/7 favourites at home says it all.
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 18:49   #28
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
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The fact that the worst team in Britain has beaten the league leaders and 1/7 favourites at home says it all.
i thought that was gretna?
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Unread 6 Nov 2004, 18:56   #29
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phang
i thought that was gretna?
You may be right. I was pretty sure that Elgin led the league. However it appears im completely wrong.

BTW , a Peterhead/Elgin/Gretna treble has won almost 3/4 of the weekends this season.
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Rushed madly ahead and was lost to their view
In his zeal to discover the Snark
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Unread 7 Nov 2004, 19:45   #30
Sunday8pm
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Re: [Football] Kura's Weekend Trebles

Can I point out that I was sooooo right about newcastle getting stifled upfront.

However the Reading and the Chelsea games were indeed too close to call and you kinda rode your luck with them imo (both being 1-0's and only just at that).

p.s. The Average age and level of performance that the back 4 of Volz, Knight, Rehman and Bocanegra seem to be achieving in the premiership is impressing me a lot and bodes extremely well for the future of Fulham, especially as they seem to have found the time to gel.
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