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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 01:55   #1
DarkHeart
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Re: Attack Times

4 4:3:7 cat ferocious bite Ter 6,083 8,018,843

^^if he / she can do that as a ter (on this rounds stats) then why can't other terrans achieve that?

Is it that the terrans stats are lacking, or are his / her terran deficiencies masked by a host of planets defending him.

If it's the former, then you are wrong, as he / she has clearly proved it is not that major a deficiency, and if it's the latter then maybe it's not the terran stats that need modifying

(yes im aware of the lack of ter in the top100, but 4:3:7 is ur benchmark not the top 100)
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 10:23   #2
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
4 4:3:7 cat ferocious bite Ter 6,083 8,018,843

^^if he / she can do that as a ter (on this rounds stats) then why can't other terrans achieve that?

Is it that the terrans stats are lacking, or are his / her terran deficiencies masked by a host of planets defending him.

If it's the former, then you are wrong, as he / she has clearly proved it is not that major a deficiency, and if it's the latter then maybe it's not the terran stats that need modifying

(yes im aware of the lack of ter in the top100, but 4:3:7 is ur benchmark not the top 100)
But, I beg to differ. One well played TER does not show TER working. You have to take the whole TER population and see how they have done. I don't think TER BS is worse than it was before, but my point stands, TER needs roids the most, as their ship cost is high, and is out of the races least able to gain roids easily, with long ETAs involved in every mission.

If you take into account *everything* - including research time, and dev, and the high ship cost, one has to see things as very tough out there for TER right now.

Its *really not helped that Harpy is a sack of shite against ZIK FR either..
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 11:01   #3
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Re: Attack Times

meh adam, i merely saying benchmark it off the top 100 for a general feeling of how well terrans do in general if you like, but it doesn't detract from the fact that 4:3:7 has proven what is possible with the rounds stats (as a terran).

Which is why I was playing devils advocate in suggesting maybe its not the stats that aren't working!

As of tick 1093,

31 terran with +3million score
31 cath with +3million score
76 xan with +3million score
95 zik with +3million score
61 etd with +3million score

would certainly seem to agree with you that for the (average) ter / cath (bs/cr fleets) the long eta is a serious disadvantage* and attack timing would be pivotal, however every ter player at start of round had the potential to achieve whatever the #1 ter achieves.


*however zik seem to be wining the averages game, with two middle ground eta fleets
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 11:12   #4
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
meh adam, i merely saying benchmark it off the top 100 for a general feeling of how well terrans do in general if you like, but it doesn't detract from the fact that 4:3:7 has proven what is possible with the rounds stats (as a terran).

Which is why I was playing devils advocate in suggesting maybe its not the stats that aren't working!

As of tick 1093,

31 terran with +3million score
31 cath with +3million score
76 xan with +3million score
95 zik with +3million score
61 etd with +3million score

would certainly seem to agree with you that for the (average) ter / cath (bs/cr fleets) the long eta is a serious disadvantage* and attack timing would be pivotal, however every ter player at start of round had the potential to achieve whatever the #1 ter achieves.


*however zik seem to be wining the averages game, with two middle ground eta fleets
I probably mislead people. Its not the ship stats alone that I think are the trouble. As I said, its ETA + Research + Cost + Lack of roids.
And I honestly think TER has to have a lot of support from ALLY / GAL to have a hope in hell at all.

I suppose, the crossroads we are at, is how much help has 4:3:7 had.

# Ruler Planet On Race Size Value Score Scan
1 Hanging Gardens Babylon Cat 912 1,276,654 2,499,934 PSTUNFJA
2 the p0wer fish1ng Etd 4,984 7,283,695 7,756,015 PSTUNFJA
3 Bubbles SunnyvaleTrailerPark Etd 596 1,914,408 2,366,148 PSTUNFJA
4 The Brilliance Fishing Etd 4,864 8,100,890 8,745,290 PSTUNFJA
5 The Stench F1shing Cat 1,061 4,715,760 5,295,360 PSTUNFJA
6 Levitzi Bizbazi Etd 784 2,079,519 2,959,179 PSTUNFJA
7 cat ferocious bite Ter 6,083 7,850,899 8,750,599 PSTUNFJA
8 The Fun F1sh1ng Xan 1,908 6,052,744 6,593,584 PSTUNFJA
9 shock flame Zik 1,207 1,044,458 2,206,418 PSTUNFJA
10 Rebellion One Xan 4,737 5,385,241 6,016,441 PSTUNFJA
11 Mortarion Barbarus Xan 1,357 2,038,047 2,649,387 PSTUNFJA
12 zzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzz Cat 270 1,360,138 1,805,818 PSTUNFJA
13 Humanoice [Calabria] Ter 259 56,539 62,359 PSTUNFJA
14 Piece Piss Cat 1,091 961,997 1,351,157 PSTUNFJA

Ahem. I suspect QUITE a lot!
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 11:19   #5
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkheart
meh adam, i merely saying benchmark it off the top 100 for a general feeling of how well terrans do in general if you like, but it doesn't detract from the fact that 4:3:7 has proven what is possible with the rounds stats (as a terran).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outliers
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 11:42   #6
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
4 4:3:7 cat ferocious bite Ter 6,083 8,018,843

^^if he / she can do that as a ter (on this rounds stats) then why can't other terrans achieve that?

Is it that the terrans stats are lacking, or are his / her terran deficiencies masked by a host of planets defending him.
The fact that his galaxy has 5 other planets in the top 20 planet rankings is helping a fair bit. It means that he can hold onto roids for as long as he likes, allowing him to build up his fleet and become a major asset to the galaxy on defence (quantity has a quality all of its own).


As JBG said, you should look at the stats for the top 100/200, not the success of a single planet.
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 14:37   #7
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Re: Attack Times

Im well aware that 4:3:7 is the exception to the average rule in this instance, and as JBG termed it, it is the outlier for statistical purposes. I have already conceded and in fact indicated myself that the average ter doesn't fair too well, but it's whether that outlier is really a statistical anomaly thats being disagreed on.

In JBGs link they use termperatures as an example to show the effect of an outlier. if 10 objects came up to a median temperature of 23 degrees you could quite happily stick your head in all of them by the ignorance of the outlier. But would you stick your head in a 350 degree oven? no. You cannot ignore the outlier, as the outlier sets the standard of what is possible, ignore it and you'll get burnt (pun intended).

4:3:7 may be an outlier, and if you want average sample of an average terran then remove the outlier from contention, but he's the benchmark as to what was possible with the terran stats that you cannot ignore.

You have rightly suggested that 4:3:7 has been so successful as a terran due to the support he or she had. We all start off at zero...even...they've grown and worked well together, as everybody had the fair potential and opportunity too...this just goes back to my original point that its not the stats that are screwed but how people are playing terran, and how their gals / alliances are suppporting there terran colleagues is wrong.

Meh starting to go off on a tangent, this belongs in the 'make terran better' thread, so to keep it slightly on topic.....it is possible to be successful with long etas, if you get the attack times right
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 15:35   #8
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
Im well aware that 4:3:7 is the exception to the average rule in this instance, and as JBG termed it, it is the outlier for statistical purposes. I have already conceded and in fact indicated myself that the average ter doesn't fair too well, but it's whether that outlier is really a statistical anomaly thats being disagreed on.

In JBGs link they use termperatures as an example to show the effect of an outlier. if 10 objects came up to a median temperature of 23 degrees you could quite happily stick your head in all of them by the ignorance of the outlier. But would you stick your head in a 350 degree oven? no. You cannot ignore the outlier, as the outlier sets the standard of what is possible, ignore it and you'll get burnt (pun intended).

4:3:7 may be an outlier, and if you want average sample of an average terran then remove the outlier from contention, but he's the benchmark as to what was possible with the terran stats that you cannot ignore.

You have rightly suggested that 4:3:7 has been so successful as a terran due to the support he or she had. We all start off at zero...even...they've grown and worked well together, as everybody had the fair potential and opportunity too...this just goes back to my original point that its not the stats that are screwed but how people are playing terran, and how their gals / alliances are suppporting there terran colleagues is wrong.

Meh starting to go off on a tangent, this belongs in the 'make terran better' thread, so to keep it slightly on topic.....it is possible to be successful with long etas, if you get the attack times right
Even if they get gal support, alliance support, on an average basis, given all the rather general information, rule of thumb, guesstimation, and evidence, TER is suffering, hard to play, and unless you not only play well, but get lucky, you're in between a rock and a hard place.

In the case of 4.3.7, you're taking the exception and making a case for it to be taken as the norm :/



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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 15:37   #9
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Re: Attack Times

Darkheart, you appear to be ignoring the fundamental point that good ship stats should not require one race to work harder than another to succeed.

We are rather off-topic though and I would suggest further continuation to occur elsewhere.
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 15:46   #10
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Re: Attack Times

nah not ignoring it johnny, I haven't mentioned whether i feel its balanced or not, so you cannot know my thoughts on it, you've assumed i'm ignoring the balancing factor based on my arguments, which are in fact that it is possible to succeed with the current terran stats (whether they are balanced fairly or not as the case may be).

As I keep reiterating I'm only making the argument if 4:3:7 has done it, at the very start of the round, all terran had an opportunity to do it. 4:3:7 is not playing use different stats than all the other terran.

To clarify - I don't think any race should have to work any harder than others to succeed, and I wish all races we're balanced equally.

That'd be the day though eh


Ad - no not arguing it to be considered the norm. just for it to be acknowlged as possible to do well with the current stats and etas (as terran)
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 16:41   #11
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart

Ad - no not arguing it to be considered the norm. just for it to be acknowlged as possible to do well with the current stats and etas (as terran)
But, I can't acknowledge something I patently don't think exists. One player as TER does well because he is in an oustanding gal. Any race, even the worst statistically in PA history can sit in such gals and have good games. Tell me, how are other terrans doing outside these unusual variables. Oh thats right, they are struggling in most of the data sets we can look at.

3 TER in top 50
9 in the top hundred, or 9%
22 in the top 200 @11%
31 in the top 300 @10

What about looking at the other end. Try the 69th planet page at sandmans. And the 68th, and the 67th.

And Races
Race Count (%) Best Planet Score Rank
Terran 983(28%) cat OF ferocious bite (4:3:7) 8,803,894 2
One player having 28%, :/

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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 17:08   #12
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Re: Attack Times

I have never disagreed they are struggling ad, you do not need to justify or explain yourself as to why you know they are struggling.

Since you like data so much, none of the terran in the top5 gals are doing particularly well. Are these not outstanding gals? Bear in mind only recently have 4:3 pulled significantly away from the other top 5 gals.

edit - mb monroe replied b4 i read your post
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 17:36   #13
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

I have a slightly different view on stats and how races perform. I think it only has to do something with eachother indirectly. What I mean is.. all decent pa players in this game, will have a decent rank, whatever their race is. Some races SEEM to perform better then other races, just coz most good players chose one of those races. While in this case, terran looked bad on paper before the round started, so hardly any good player went terran, which obviously leads to less high ranked terran planets. If everyone in top100 atm would have taken ter, i think we would see a lot more topics about how terran rocked the universe this round. A good player will have a decent ranked planet, even if they pick "the worst" race. Just my humble opinion ofc
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 17:51   #14
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

On the other hand, that was proven wrong in Round 13 when Cathaar was selected by a good proportion of 1up players (who were all quality players at this point) despite having a shocking CR fleet. Only 5 Caths finished in the top 100 from what I recall.


You could point to the outcome of the eXilition & friends war against 1up & friends as the sole cause of this, but I'm not so sure.
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 18:11   #15
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
As I keep reiterating I'm only making the argument if 4:3:7 has done it, at the very start of the round, all terran had an opportunity to do it. 4:3:7 is not playing use different stats than all the other terran.
You're dismissing a lot of arguments without suggesting an alternative hypothesis to explain why so few Terran players are doing as well as 4:3:7. In fact, you claim the exact reverse: everyone could have done well, despite choosing Terran.

If everyone could have done the same, that implies there is little to no 'skill' needed to do so, because not everyone has the level of dedication and aggression needed to do well in Planetarion. If everyone could have done the same, that implies there is little to no galaxy and alliance support needed to do so, because the vast majority of the playerbase does not have the support needed to come out on top. If everyone could have done the same, that implies the stats are balanced enough for them to do so, because if they weren't, the wrong race choice would doom them.

So if all of these are givens, why don't the Terran players occupy at least a representative portion of the top10, top100 and top300?
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 18:19   #16
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Re: Attack Times

Quote:
Ad - no not arguing it to be considered the norm. just for it to be acknowlged as possible to do well with the current stats and etas (as terran)
Of course it is, it's just harder as we all can acknowledge. You're really just posting irrelevancies
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 18:51   #17
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

There is little or no skill involved in running a terran planet Mzyxptkl. Build DE fleet. Build BS fleet. Go roid. Faking and the decision to be a distwhore or not is about as skillful as a Terran planet gets, but lets be honest you could train a monkey to make a fake attack

Your kind of getting the perspective I'm trying to represent Mzyxptkl (damn ur name is hard to type), but I am not claiming everybody could have done well despite choosing terran, I'm claiming everybody had the same potential to do well despite choosing terran. A subtle difference.

The rest of your post is actually contrary to what I'm saying Mzyxptkl. I agree with you and reiterate my shared belief that 4:3:7 has by all accounts required a vast amount of galaxy and alliance support.

But this is where the essence of my initial response to Ad is formed. It is not completely the fault of the stats that have failed terran players, and I have put 4:3:7 up on a pedestal merely as an undisputable shining example of where a terran could have got to this round despite of the stats.

And that is my alternative hypothesis, despite your claims I had not formed it, its right there in my initial couple of posts (feel free to re-read them I won't bog this down with quotes)

And jonny its these 'irrelevancies' that seem to have made the differenc e between success and failure :P

Furball, I can't profess any knowledge of round 13, thats one of the many rounds I missed, but surely a large proportion of the one ally all choosing the worst race explains why this is the.....'outlier' against Satyrs hypothesis

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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 18:57   #18
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
And jonny its these 'irrelevancies' that seem to have made the differenc e between success and failure :P
http://c2.com/cgi/wiki?AssumedScalabilityFallacy
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 19:33   #19
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Now we're getting somewhere jonny

The Assumed Scalability Fallacy is derived on the simple premise, that it's possible to manipulate a system to work in your favour (there has to be a successful system in place already for this to even be mentioned), in the case at hand we would be looking at reverse assumed scalability. What has worked on the large scale would not neccesarily work on the small scale is your obvious implication (what has worked for 4:3:7 might not neccesarily work for a terran in a smaller gal / alliance).

The data ad has allready posted would seem to concur, yet he made a very good point. Terrans need roids, and it is apparently fact they they have not been able to hold onto them.

But who is making the decisions as to who gets defence and who doesn't. The top 15 allies all have or are close to full quotas of players. Maybe allies should have looked at the terran deficiencies, realised that what ad said is true, and made a conscious effort to get their terran players covered (to keep hold of roids)

This is seemingly what has happened with 4:3:7. Would it neccesarily be a case of reverse assumed scalability factor. Between a 70 member alliance and a 70 member alliance. Between a 14 man gal and a 14 man gal.

The assumed scalability fallacy is at its very core large v small. You can remove the quantity of players or add an imbalance of quantity of players depending on what extreme you want to take the dataset to.

But there are 15 alliance with almost 70 members in each one, with 3 fleet slots each. The only weight in numbers would be of ship quantities, which at the very beginning of the round was 0 v 0.

The potential for all terran to achieve was there (and indeed on a larger scale, the potential for all alliances). You made a good point a while back that terrans shouldn't have to work harder (which I agree with), but meh once the stats are set, the amount of effort or lack of effort is down to the individuals and the alliances.

But really I think the points have been made by both sides. I'd like to see a bit more existentialism from the terrans, ad and others would like to see better stats for the terrans. I couldn't give a damn either way on the stats
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 19:36   #20
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

One probably should refrain from posting so on the strategy forum my friend.
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 19:46   #21
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

hmm sorry not entirely familiar with the pa boards set up, what shouldn't be poste don the strategy board?
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 19:57   #22
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

The statistics are the cornerstone of tactics in PA, which, despite the name of this forum, this is explicitly designed to cover, as one can tell from the previous threads. Therefore posting that you don't care about them doesn't make sense in the context of what we were discussing.
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 20:02   #23
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

ahh right I see what you mean Jonny. My bad, I didn't realise this board was for stats, I did take the name of the board at face value and for that I apologize, but to clarify my position, I do care about the stats, and as stated in this thread, I would love to see a perfectly balanced round, but in the context of this discussion, the debate has moved from what the stats were originally, to what one could achieve with the given stats, and once the stats are set in stone I stop caring about them (As once they are set your feeling towards them are irrelevant, is it the measure of you what you accomplish or fail to accomplish with the given stats)

Though from what you have said and a quick glance at the other threads if this is something that would be considered in the devlopment of the terran race for next round, then please do not let my statement discourage anyone form talking stats here. I promise to listen to what you have to say about stats with an open mind

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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 20:26   #24
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
There is little or no skill involved in running a terran planet Mzyxptkl. Build DE fleet. Build BS fleet. Go roid. Faking and the decision to be a distwhore or not is about as skillful as a Terran planet gets, but lets be honest you could train a monkey to make a fake attack
I'd say in this round, a GREAT deal of skill is needed to even try and play TER with any effect. As for just "build a DE fleet, and Build a BS fleet", which naturally you get later than other races, and costs you more, both in res and in the ETAs. Faking detrimentally hurts TER appallingly. Earlier on I told you that as far as their effective fleet (BS) goes they can MAX launch 198 missions that land in a 90 day round. Every FAKE mission burns the crap out of that, even before you talk about lost time in research and constructions. We are sitting right at the tail end of the round, TER has been battered - and no real sign of their end of round BS power of old has shown up at all. I'm ZIK this round, and I have been able to hit lonesome TER with virtual impunity using FR. The only hope a TER has is for someone else non TER to come defend them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
Your kind of getting the perspective I'm trying to represent Mzyxptkl (damn ur name is hard to type), but I am not claiming everybody could have done well despite choosing terran, I'm claiming everybody had the same potential to do well despite choosing terran. A subtle difference.
Everyone could do well, despite evidence that points to the opposite. TER players in RD22 had the odds stacked against them not in the usual PA way of 2 or 3 weaknesses, but in far too many areas. Therefore the 'same potential' despite picking TER is an absolute falacy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
The rest of your post is actually contrary to what I'm saying Mzyxptkl. I agree with you and reiterate my shared belief that 4:3:7 has by all accounts required a vast amount of galaxy and alliance support.
Which means that its good for 4.3.7, but its skewing the overall estimation of TER.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
But this is where the essence of my initial response to Ad is formed. It is not completely the fault of the stats that have failed terran players, and I have put 4:3:7 up on a pedestal merely as an undisputable shining example of where a terran could have got to this round despite of the stats.
*HEADSCRATCHING*
I have no idea why you are smokescreening this badly. As I said before, its not just ship STATS that is the problem. Its way beyond ship stats.
TER downsides.
1. Long ETA (BS max number of successful landings =198, less if you take real world game issues into account) When you are going to have so few landings, you would be crazy to fake blowing the few ETAs you have..
2. Long RESEARCH (TER can't even roid till late on..)
3. High cost (Thus, TER has to try and finance high cost ships, it has no choice, while being limited early game by the cost of initing roids, and being denied the chance to roid. Vicious circle, if you init, you can't buy ships. If you buy ships, you are so poor the build rate is tiny..)
4. ETD eat TER BS for breakfast(oh dear, there dies the old advantage TER had..)
5 ZIK FR kill TER with impunity. (What use is all your armour and firepower if its useless, dead, smoking wreckage?)
6. As someone else said, TER can't actually defend. TER has to rely on def from others.

4.3.7 is not a shining example of what a TER can do. Its a shining example of what 4.3/4.3.7 Alliance can do with a TER.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkHeart
Furball, I can't profess any knowledge of round 13, thats one of the many rounds I missed, but surely a large proportion of the one ally all choosing the worst race explains why this is the.....'outlier' against Satyrs hypothesis
I understand that from round to round, there will always be a case for someone/something to be found wanting. Whats annoying now here, is if people like you pitch the idea that TER is ok, then it won't get fixed/improved..
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 20:29   #25
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Darkheart, I am curious to what race you played this round...If you were a terran like am... who was in the top 100 for the first eighth of the round and then was eaten apart by xan fi and zik fr fleets... you would find it quite hard to have a respectable round... i only have a small chance right now to finish in the top 100 and the only reason for this is a group attack with my buddy on a large value planet.. the terran stats are definately in need of improvement...i got a decent amount of defense this round from in gal, cluster and alliance and without it i would undoubtedly be ranked somewhere in the 500s..however one of the biggest problems i have faced has to deal with ability for other players to defend against ter de and bs fleets and have more than ample time to setup defense with their allies... most ships that defend against ter de are banshee and (occasionally) spider not are these ships dirt cheap in comparison but have an eta of only 8 when defending in the uni... for bs fleets any etd in any round would be more than happy to send all their ranger to a ter bs income because they can't lose a ship... the amount of targets for ter to attack is dismal... basically right now i am just bitching but without a stat change i probably won't bother to play terran again
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 21:12   #26
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Quote:
Originally Posted by AdmV0rl0n
*HEADSCRATCHING*
I have no idea why you are smokescreening this badly. As I said before, its not just ship STATS that is the problem. Its way beyond ship stats.
TER downsides.
1. Long ETA (BS max number of successful landings =198, less if you take real world game issues into account) When you are going to have so few landings, you would be crazy to fake blowing the few ETAs you have..
2. Long RESEARCH (TER can't even roid till late on..)
3. High cost (Thus, TER has to try and finance high cost ships, it has no choice, while being limited early game by the cost of initing roids, and being denied the chance to roid. Vicious circle, if you init, you can't buy ships. If you buy ships, you are so poor the build rate is tiny..)
4. ETD eat TER BS for breakfast(oh dear, there dies the old advantage TER had..)
5 ZIK FR kill TER with impunity. (What use is all your armour and firepower if its useless, dead, smoking wreckage?)
6. As someone else said, TER can't actually defend. TER has to rely on def from others.
I can't aggree with point 3

It's true that a single Ter ship has high cost but these ships are BIG and by big i mean really big. Their A/C as the manual calls it is supirior to nearly anything else. This is also true for empres.
In mixed fleets the bigger ships are always better. the currect combat engine leads to big ships not being targeted.

The problem with point 4 is that Etd not only can eat Ter Bs for breakfast. They desperatly want to eat Ter BS.

and you haven't mentioned Xan Fi
Ter are target #1 when a Xan searches for a place for his Fi
Xan Fi can only be defended by beetles/voyagers (and possible some wraiths too if there are already some freezers) from the alliance and as these are EMP you would need lots of them to stop the Xan fi

Ingal you could defend with thieves but if your gal lacks enought thieves or if these are on the way to the terran next door.....

For Zik Fr it's similar, there is no zero loss def ship which could be sent by the alliance and Zik usually hit Ter with their Fr...

So to summarize my thougths

A Ter needs dedicaded ingal Thieves and Tycoons to archive a good rank. For r22 Terrans the gal is more important than it might be for other races.
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 21:38   #27
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

nice analysis ad

/me is happy to play devils advocate when thats the result

JD, Zik..allways zik....I seriously don't know what anybody see's in any of the other races (apart from maybe etd).

Ad i'm not pitching ter is ok. Im pitching theres potential for success there and noting the failure of the gal or ally in covering the terrans deficiencies which has helped play a role in the absolute failure of ter this round.

As stated, I'm Zik too and many a times I've loaded up sandmans and poured through the terran listings.

I still feel that there is little skill involved in playing a terran planet though, even with what you have outlined.
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 21:47   #28
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

I have a few problems with what admvorlon is saying. For a start terran can defend a lot. In my case i use harpies and phoenix to defend and syrens can be used to defend against weak etd fleets.

Terran do have a legitimate attack fleet in the de fleet early on in the round especially as etd only have the broker (which is usually out on attack) and zik only have the rogue which as long as you play for xp you can land on them and take the losses. It can also be easy to land on cathaar with with the de fleet as long as you can soak up the emp.

Yes you can get roided and yes terran isnt the best race atm but it is by no means unplayable
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 21:57   #29
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

I ain't seen any FR incomings since i stole 54k harpies
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Unread 8 Aug 2007, 23:32   #30
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

well that is because you most likely have other fr defense i sit with 45k harpies and it does nothing to deter any zik fr inc... they fire first... they kill off most of your fleet...the only thing harpies are halfway decent for is xan fr fleets and as flak...phoenix on the other hand are a great defense tool and syren are ok depending on the race....dragon would work effectively if not for the huge power of scorpions...the problem is yes terran can attack cath with their de fleets but that hinges on a huge fleet and some zik not saying ooo look free terran bs... the fact is terran have an extremely hard time landing on their targets when another player (with a different race) defends the target.
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Unread 9 Aug 2007, 06:45   #31
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Here are a couple of thoughts on terrans this round, but one useful piece of information I have been watching the last couple of week is the following:
PT1053
Code:
Race %      Race    t300        %       % dif        t100         %       % dif
13          cat      38        12.6       -0.3         14         14         +1
20          zik      93        31         +11          38         38         +18
19          xan      74        24.6       +5.6         26         26         +7
28          ter      31        10.3       -17.3         7          7         -21
17          etd      64        21.3       +4.3         15         15         -2
I have been watching the race balance trend as a percentage of the universe for the last month or so and have been doing dumps similar to the one above. What the dumps have been showing is that the percentage of top planets that are terran has been slowly eroding while xan and zik have been increasing and cath and etd remained roughly steady. Interestingly enough as a relative percentage of the universe etd and cath have stayed right about where they should (within a reasonable statistical margin) while the other three have been not. Factors as to why include:
1. Higher percentage of unskilled players choose terran
2. High percentage of skilled players choose zik
3. With terrans being relatively weak Xans have a less problems with BS incommings and therefore are better able to hold onto roids and build large spectre fleets.
4. The stats balance gives etd a strong incentive to build rangers to steal terran BS to have a balanced roiding fleet. Because rangers have a -2 eta bonus defensively they are very powerful against ter relative to the power of syrens/investors against etd
5. Terran DE has become very difficult to attack with late in the round with the large number of banshees in the uni


As a challenge to myself this round I chose to play terran, I have managed (so far at least) to stay in the t200 in a fairly poor galaxy defensively. To do this I have had to basically give up on DE late in the round and focus solely on BS and find an etd to attack with regularly. This combo has allowed me to get lots of XP and so not have to worry so much about my inability to hang onto roids. If I had been able to get decent ally/gal defense and thereby hold onto a few more roids this round my situation would have been significantly different and I believe I could have been in the t100. I point this out not to show my PA skills but to highlight the difficulties with terrans. I have found the killer incomming on me is FI and zik FR, all other incomming I have been able to stop fairly well. So based on this if I could land my DE fleet occasionally I would be in good shape, but because of how poor the terran DE fleet is late in the round I am unable to regain the roids I loose solely with BS. Are these problems surmountable? Obviously one planet has figured out how, probably mostly through good luck. Are the stats tweakable to fix these problems? Probably, but we're not going to find out as we will have a fresh set of stats for r23 by some new people who have hopefully learned from my mistakes.
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Unread 9 Aug 2007, 07:40   #32
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

That's a good piece of statistics. It'd be interesting to see a view of the previous rounds too, but those probably aren't very available.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Interestingly enough as a relative percentage of the universe etd and cath have stayed right about where they should (within a reasonable statistical margin) while the other three have been not.
I'm not sure how to model it, as I haven't been collecting any dumps, but given top300 (assuming it represents a good share of the "better" doing planets of the active universe), a nearly 40% relative bump off the "ideal" isn't really fitting into the margins. The difference from the "ideal" 20 is rather large if you've got 12.6% inbound. Well, I don't think it's "about where it should be", it's not "horrible" like the terran number, but it's definately not good either. It probably has to do with the cathaar as a race, and the fact that they're at the moment - as last round - probably experiencing hard time holding on to roids because they're forced to spread wide, with only one killship and overlapping attack fleets.

Quote:
Factors as to why include:
1. Higher percentage of unskilled players choose terran
2. High percentage of skilled players choose zik
These factors all come down to anticipating and reading the statistics, though - and if the statistics seem, by default, so that terran is ackwardly bad, you'll end up with less terrans in top ranks. The problem remains that terran are too weak, and the small amount of "skilled" players choosing terran is a symptom of that, not the other way around. This is because, if terran was stronger, or say, appeared equally strong to xandathrii, a largely more significant amount of players would choose terran. Round 19, when terran was relatively strong, there was a large amount of terran planets in the top ranks. Obviously, that was influenced by skilled players picking terran, but that's not because they'd be particularily fond of terran - but because it was a valid choice, what it really isn't this round either.


Quote:
4. The stats balance gives etd a strong incentive to build rangers to steal terran BS to have a balanced roiding fleet. Because rangers have a -2 eta bonus defensively they are very powerful against ter relative to the power of syrens/investors against etd
The ranger is a complete puzzle to me. It's really unarguably the best steal ship in the statistics, and yet it's not a zikonian one - in fact, even zikonians themselves are unable to steal ships for their inbound attack fleets with the brutal efficiency the ranger packs (added with the increased salvage, one could argue it's perhaps the best ship of the round!). I guess the ranger alone, especially last round, can be a reason why terran seems unattractive, and experiences some trouble with the battleship fleet. There's usually "always" an eitrades with rangers eagerly sending them in hopes of dragons and wyverns.


Quote:
5. Terran DE has become very difficult to attack with late in the round with the large number of banshees in the uni
Terran destroyers were piss poor last round too. Then there's zikonians that are immune through rogues, terrans that are immune through wyverns, and eitrades that are just piss difficult through brokers. In fact, cathaar is the only race that doesn't mutilate terran destroyers before they get to take a breathe, and they do EMP a share too. Someone said on the PS, that if pegasus wasn't the only anti-fighter, he wouldn't be building destroyers at all.


Quote:
Are these problems surmountable? Obviously one planet has figured out how, probably mostly through good luck.
One planet in top ranks is really very neglible. It's been said all over, that the galaxy puts a lot of input to it. Generally, top galaxies (the three highest or so) always host fat, large planets - this has to do with multiple factors. The round back, when terrans were crap as hell, Alki managed to turn up with a solid terran planet - later lokken commented, that he was a massive drag ingalaxy for very long. This is trying to imply that, with a large enough degree of support and help, any race can rank high. What should be looked at, is the aggregates, because they tell the whole story.

Quote:
Are the stats tweakable to fix these problems? Probably, but we're not going to find out as we will have a fresh set of stats for r23 by some new people who have hopefully learned from my mistakes.
Were the stats from last round tweakable for this round to fix these problems? Probably, yet we're not going to find out as, at topmost, the terran problem persists. Let's see what Game turns up with, it probably can't be too much worse irregardless.
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Unread 9 Aug 2007, 15:17   #33
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tietäjä
The ranger is a complete puzzle to me. ... eitrades with rangers eagerly sending them in hopes of dragons and wyverns.
Rangers are not as good as the stats suggest because the combat engine cuts their effectiveness in half. This is why they appear better then zik ships. It does appear given their purpose even with the 50% reduction in effectiveness given by the combat engine they are too strong overall and too tempting for etd to build because of the big advantage they give. Even if I had cut their effectiveness by another 50% they still would have been built en mass, because they are 0 loss, but it might have helped terrans be more willing to land against rangers.

As for your comment on statistical 'reasonableness' I consider being within two standard deviations of the center of the bell curve to be reasonable, especially given how poorly terrans are doing, which skews the stats in favor of every other race.
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Unread 9 Aug 2007, 18:14   #34
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Rangers are not as good as the stats suggest because the combat engine cuts their effectiveness in half. This is why they appear better then zik ships. It does appear given their purpose even with the 50% reduction in effectiveness given by the combat engine they are too strong overall and too tempting for etd to build because of the big advantage they give. Even if I had cut their effectiveness by another 50% they still would have been built en mass, because they are 0 loss, but it might have helped terrans be more willing to land against rangers.
The ranger doesn't appear better than Zik ships, it simply is better. Sure, Zik ships have greater efficiency ratings in both attack and defence, but apart from the Rogue (with a 'useless' defence eta) there is not a single Zik steal ships that can steal without being shot first like the Ranger can. This makes alot of difference in stealing, as Zik steal ships lose whatever efficiency advantage they have to the lower init ships shooting at them (given they can fire at all ofcourse). Not to mention the fact the Ranger has a relatively fast eta, steals ships that strengthen their main attack fleet quite nicely for free with a high salvage return and can perform as extra flak vs one of their stronger incoming class (Cat CR).

And since quite a few players go Etd and will build Rangers, it makes Terran (who mostly rely on their BS fleet) an even weaker race, they would have done quite a bit better if the Ranger wouldn't exist or could have been targetted by them.
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Unread 10 Aug 2007, 20:21   #35
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wandows
And since quite a few players go Etd and will build Rangers, it makes Terran (who mostly rely on their BS fleet) an even weaker race, they would have done quite a bit better if the Ranger wouldn't exist or could have been targetted by them.
I would also suggest that having 2 ticks to gather in-ally zero-loss defence is excessive. I'd always considered this something to be avoided where possible.

If you can't avoid it, then the zero loss ship could perhaps be part of an attack fleet to avoid it being available as regularly...

Unfortunately, ranger as BS->BS wouldn't really have worked (yes, I know I did the same with the r17 pirate, but the statistics were weighted to make this acceptable [IMO]), the stats would have needed significant rejigging.
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Unread 10 Aug 2007, 22:22   #36
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gate
I would also suggest that having 2 ticks to gather in-ally zero-loss defence is excessive. I'd always considered this something to be avoided where possible.

If you can't avoid it, then the zero loss ship could perhaps be part of an attack fleet to avoid it being available as regularly...

Unfortunately, ranger as BS->BS wouldn't really have worked (yes, I know I did the same with the r17 pirate, but the statistics were weighted to make this acceptable [IMO]), the stats would have needed significant rejigging.
Well I figured out a possible solution, to make them DE coupled with a change to caths to have their CR target DE (move all the anti CR FR to DE), which would have allowed them a second kill ship. But it's all a moot point now.
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Unread 13 Aug 2007, 17:49   #37
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

I am clearly the best terran that has graced this game
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Unread 14 Aug 2007, 05:00   #38
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Re: [Round 22] Terran success

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
Rangers are not as good as the stats suggest because the combat engine cuts their effectiveness in half.
Neglible. It's fast zero-loss that harvests for your attack fleet. Regardless of "less efficiency", it's still superior to any zikonian ship. This is alleviated by the fact that it will lead to greater gains given the higher eitrades salvage.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wandows
The ranger doesn't appear better than Zik ships, it simply is better
Simply so.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
But it's all a moot point now
Wouldn't have been a moot point had any fixes been done for the round 22.
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