Round 47 Predictions

[Illusion]

Originally Posted by Stylez1877

There is absolutely no way Haven gets #1 without attacking Ultores. How do you propose they catch up? CT are behind in roids and ahead in score. Ultores are WAY ahead in roids and ahead in score. You think they're going to take 40k roids away from CT while Ultores take 0? It's 100% unrealistic and you're only supporting it because it gives Ultores a guaranteed win.

What you fail to understand is that its better to hit CT for 5k roids with a 90% chance of success than hitting Ult for 10k roids with 20% chance of success

[[DDK]gm]

wont bother quoting... haven can not win now, ults will win unless miracles happen.

CT will continue to hit ults but they are growing so fast.

end of the day it will be a congrats to ult for an epic comeback and ty to nd for being the only alliance that has been true to their word and a good allie.

[Paisley]

my only suggestion to Gm and co is if you can't be arsed to fix the defence then target the def leeches in ult and then set up live raids on the defenders (ie their fleet is out) and jgp the def leeches to check for fleet out. something that I haven't seen CT do since r40

[Kaiba]

Originally Posted by Paisley

my only suggestion to Gm and co is if you can't be arsed to fix the defence then target the def leeches in ult and then set up live raids on the defenders (ie their fleet is out) and jgp the def leeches to check for fleet out. something that I haven't seen CT do since r40

Thats all well and good Paisley but again its something that requires activity. At the moment CT seems to be lacking on that front, they are ok to launch an attack and defend from 6am onwards but actively setting up retals and live raids on defenders requires a lot more than the level the majority of their members play at.

I wouldnt be suprised if the trend of CT being mile ahead of the eventual round winner only to succumb in a short space of time continues for a long time. They are kind of caught between a rock and a hard place atm as an alliance, good enough at attacking to have lots of roids, but bad enough at politics and defending to not be able to hold them.

If PA had a top 10 of 70 man alliances i imagine CT would finish about 5th, thats probably their true ranking in PA if everyones member base was of equal numbers, but it isnt so... meh

[Clouds]

Conspiracy/Haven should've had an agreement where if Ultores were behind by an acceptable deficit, they would be permittied to attack each other at each owns discretion, but if/when Ultores decreased that deficit, their partnership would quicky be reestablished to keep Ultores down.

As assumed, prioritising thirst for victory over stopping Ultores was on either sides agenda.

[MiX]

Originally Posted by Clouds

Conspiracy/Haven should've had an agreement where if Ultores were behind by an acceptable deficit, they would be permittied to attack each other at each owns discretion, but if/when Ultores decreased that deficit, their partnership would quicky be reestablished to keep Ultores down.

As assumed, prioritising thirst for victory over stopping Ultores was on either sides agenda.

Yes, something along those lines. Though CT and Haven didnt start hitting each other automatically, Ult and App instigated it. CT then jumped on the "easy roids" bandwagon, which was imo a HUGE mistake. But ow well, done is done

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Clouds

Conspiracy/Haven should've had an agreement where if Ultores were behind by an acceptable deficit, they would be permittied to attack each other at each owns discretion, but if/when Ultores decreased that deficit, their partnership would quicky be reestablished to keep Ultores down.

As assumed, prioritising thirst for victory over stopping Ultores was on either sides agenda.

They did but when it came to it, Hvn refused to hit ult again

[Mzyxptlk]

The last 3 days, HAVeN has allowed Ultores to run away with it, and I say that without meaning to discredit Ultores for their hard work. And to be quite frank, I don't really understand why.

Originally Posted by Illusion

What you fail to understand is that its better to hit CT for 5k roids with a 90% chance of success than hitting Ult for 10k roids with 20% chance of success

Except CT wasn't running away with the round. If hAvEN had joined CT in hitting Ultores, they would've been hard pressed. Ultores might still have won (I made my 50/50 estimate thinking Ultores would get hit for the rest of the round), but at least HAvEN would've had a chance.

In any case, by that logic, hAVEn should be noob roiding. Tons of roids to be had that way!

[Clouds]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

Except CT wasn't running away with the round. If hAvEN had joined CT in hitting Ultores, they would've been hard pressed. Ultores might still have won (I made my 50/50 estimate thinking Ultores would get hit for the rest of the round), but at least HAvEN would've had a chance.

Last night (technically this morning), Ultores received incoming from CT/Haven/ND. Better late than never I suppose..

[neroon]

erm.. and babylon!

[Clouds]

Who did Babylons hit? I didn't recall seeing any fleets from them. o_O

[Benneh]

Originally Posted by Clouds

Who did Babylons hit? I didn't recall seeing any fleets from them. o_O

Mikee, which is understandable, lets hope they sent SKs'

PAGING BABYLONS PR CAN YOU PLEASE CONFIRM?

[Clouds]

http://game.planetarion.com/show_new...l00mnh7m8txgen

[Forest]

If CT has lost, as looks likely, we have done so because we didn't keep our own house in order. Blaming anyone else is futile and pointless.

That said, we did fight till the end, which is more than can be said for some alliances, and I am proud to be a part of it.

[BloodyButcher]

http://beta.planetarion.com/history/?id=6&round=47

Not anything shocking.
Ultores had most incs.
CT had most allie def
Ultores had most gal def.

[eksero]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

http://beta.planetarion.com/history/?id=6&round=47

Not anything shocking.
Ultores had most incs.
CT had most allie def
Ultores had most gal def.

Ingaldef from allymates still counts as galdef if im not mistaken

[Mzyxptlk]

Because I'm a great believer in reviewing predictions after the facts:

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

Now we will just have to wait for Appocmasters fleet stats once again, to see what alliance got what of incomming fleets. Ofc the good old trolls over at Ultores camp will claim that they had it worst cus it was in the begining of the round, while the numbers would tell us that there were in fact other alliances that had a lot of incommings aswell, or as last round waay way way way more than Ultores.

Guess what guys, BloodyButcher is not surprised the trolls were right all along!

[Kaiba]

I think whats more intresting is that CT only had 700 incs less than Ultores yet Ultores had 3 weeks of proper incomming compared to CT's 5 days...

Shows who can bring the pain.

Eksero is also correct any alliance defence ingal shows up as galdef.. so combined Ultores had more defence fleets.

The recalls is the main one tho - Ultores made more people recall than CT did, shows how bad the coverage was from CT. Also how bad they are compared to Ultores at utilising ingal def. Thats probably down to the varying defence setups tho, Ultores deals with incs in packs - if your galaxy with 4 ultores planets gets attacked you try and cover yourselves then ask around in Ultores afterwards. In CT they use alliance defence first and galdef is a second thought. It gives Ultores a huge advantage defensively as they have more ticks to organise defence and move fleets around with all those PLed eta 5's forcing recalls.

[ArcChas]

FFS Kaiba. Anyone would think that no one knew that Ult is better (in every department) than CT. Give it a rest.

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

Because I'm a great believer in reviewing predictions after the facts:

Guess what guys, BloodyButcher is not surprised the trolls were right all along!

Yeah, but it was pretty accurate, one wouldve belived that Ultores had waaaaaaay more incommings than the rest of the univers, wich infact was wrong. Im sure if u look away from the last 3 days of the round, the incommings were pretty much even between the top2 alliances.
And i think Kaiba is right when it comes to the Ultores block was able to bring the pain, and the numbers.

[Mzyxptlk]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

I think whats more intresting is that CT only had 700 incs less than Ultores yet Ultores had 3 weeks of proper incomming compared to CT's 5 days...

It also makes it just about useless to compare one to the other. Getting, say, 1800 incs (difference between ND and CT plus a bit) in a week is a completely different ballpark than getting 2500 over 3-4 weeks.

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by eksero

Ingaldef from allymates still counts as galdef if im not mistaken

You are correct on that.
But then again, Ultores ability to take advantage of ingal def, allied or not, is what made them harder to roid than say CT this round.
If you look at HaveN, wich had planned to roll with gal forts this round afaik, their ingal def is still far less than Ultores.

[Kaiba]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

You are correct on that.
But then again, Ultores ability to take advantage of ingal def, allied or not, is what made them harder to roid than say CT this round.
If you look at HaveN, wich had planned to roll with gal forts this round afaik, their ingal def is still far less than Ultores.

Its not really an ability, its called sharing the work load, playing for each other and coming online when asked or having plans in place if you cant.

A well organised galaxy is the key, designated people to raise the alarmn and so on. Other alliances still seem to sit in the dark ages with alliance Dc's and so on. The majority of Ultores ingal def is alliance mates cross deffing each other, a tactic that works well as 90% of PA players dont spend enough time checking attacks to see if their targets fleets are out defending someone else and just pull anyway.....

[guzlic]

Seeing how much they whined here, you would think Ultores had 20k incs...

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by guzlic

Seeing how much they whined here, you would think Ultores had 20k incs...

I dont think were worse than usual, but it does suprise me how they are able to get everyone to jump on their bandwagon, earning sympathy from the rest of the community, this round as last round, when in the end, they have as much inc as any alliance with lots of roids would have.

[eksero]

Originally Posted by guzlic

Seeing how much they whined here, you would think Ultores had 20k incs...

Says the one who left ult cos of all the incs..

[Wouter]

Originally Posted by eksero

Says the one who left ult cos of all the incs..

no no
he gets pnaps, i wonder if he knows what incoming is :|

[JonnyBGood]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

It also makes it just about useless to compare one to the other. Getting, say, 1800 incs (difference between ND and CT plus a bit) in a week is a completely different ballpark than getting 2500 over 3-4 weeks.

It's amazing how much worse it is though. Say Ultores can cover 200 fleets a night inc and CT can cover 170 (the actual numbers don't matter). If we say something like Ultores gets hit by 220 fleets for a week each night they lose (guessing at 4 fleets per wave) 35 waves total. If CT gets hit for one night by 300 fleets they lose 32 waves total. So in that hypothetical if CT's defensive efficiency is 85% of Ultores and Ultores spend a week getting hit and CT spend one night with approximately 40% more incs the impact is roughly similar. And that is why bad alliances always look so bad and the bandwagon effect is so powerful in PAX.

[guzlic]

Originally Posted by eksero

Says the one who left ult cos of all the incs..

Well ofc, why would i wake up 2 times a night whole round? To have another ally win is not motivating enough...

Originally Posted by Wouter

no no
he gets pnaps, i wonder if he knows what incoming is :|

So who gave me pnap this round?

[Clouds]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

I dont think were worse than usual, but it does suprise me how they are able to get everyone to jump on their bandwagon, earning sympathy from the rest of the community, this round as last round, when in the end, they have as much inc as any alliance with lots of roids would have.

The difference being is Ultores had daily hostilities for 3~ weeks, whereas the likes of CT only had 1 week of hostilities.

It's not just about the amount of hostile fleets received, it's also about the duration of the 'gangbang'.

[Clouds]

Originally Posted by eksero

Says the one who left ult cos of all the incs..

Originally Posted by Wouter

no no
he gets pnaps, i wonder if he knows what incoming is :|

Originally Posted by guzlic

So who gave me pnap this round?

It's called trolling.

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by Clouds

The difference being is Ultores had daily hostilities for 3~ weeks, whereas the likes of CT only had 1 week of hostilities.

It's not just about the amount of hostile fleets received, it's also about the duration of the 'gangbang'.

Well thats what i say, CT and FAnG were very good at keeping up the pressure on the alliance wich they were targetting for most of the round, where Ultores played it smart, gathering sympathy from every other alliances, for then make them help ultores getting back into the game by sending 300-400 waves incs a night on the alliances infront of them.
Ultores is not only a very good alliance based on its members, but they once again outshined the oppositions politicaly for the third round in a row.

[Clouds]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

Well thats what i say, CT and FAnG were very good at keeping up the pressure on the alliance wich they were targetting for most of the round, where Ultores played it smart, gathering sympathy from every other alliances, for then make them help ultores getting back into the game by sending 300-400 waves incs a night on the alliances infront of them.
Ultores is not only a very good alliance based on its members, but they once again outshined the oppositions politicaly for the third round in a row.

To be honest, if you're going to block against Ultores for 700~ ticks, of course they're going to gain support. Do it more smartly. :|

Refer to my previous post on the matter.

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by Clouds

To be honest, if you're going to block against Ultores for 700~ ticks, of course they're going to gain support. Do it more smartly. :|

Refer to my previous post on the matter.

Well thats what im saying, they gain support, and it ended up again at tick end this round, everyone sat around looking at each other like, ehh, "WTF happend?".
Ive heard it a lot this round that it is so sad a alliance can win five rounds in a row, well its more sad that every other alliances help them win.
r45 xVx said that Ultores were their friends, and they had so strong ties that they wouldnt hit them and wanted to stay allied and share def.
r46 CT said that they would focus on getting #1 planet and allie with Ult the last week.
r47 HvN said that CT attacked them first, therefor they would make them pay by kingmaking Ultores.
Same story, diffrent round.
When a alliance like Ultores run away with a massive roid lead with 1-2 weeks to go, your helping them win by allieing them, defending them ingal, and staying clear of attacking them.

[Blue_Esper]

Who ever said good guys finish last
CT are bullies and will continue to try and bully Ultores out of the round win next round.

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by Blue_Esper

Who ever said good guys finish last
CT are bullies and will continue to try and bully Ultores out of the round win next round.

To me it seems the bullies aint ct

[MiX]

Is there some kind of statistic available of how many Ult planets that counted for allie score were late starters? For 2 rounds running now Im under the impression that after the initial bash Ult gets a lot of their score from the latestarters.

[Clouds]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

To me it seems the bullies aint ct

How did you work that one out? CT launched at the same planets for 700~ ticks (rotated with their block), who had an average of 300 roids. That's bullying in my book.

[Clouds]

Originally Posted by MiX

Is there some kind of statistic available of how many Ult planets that counted for allie score were late starters? For 2 rounds running now Im under the impression that after the initial bash Ult gets a lot of their score from the latestarters.

Last round, we only a few latestarters, however, this round, we had quite a few more than last as folk resetted to Zik.

[Mzyxptlk]

Originally Posted by Clouds

How did you work that one out? CT launched at the same planets for 700~ ticks (rotated with their block), who had an average of 300 roids. That's bullying in my book.

Ultores' average size was never 300. They passed 400 on the fourth day of the round, 500 on the seventh, and had an average size of almost 700 when you were first pushed into the red. And while we're speaking of losing roids, you only had a net roid loss 13 days this round. Nothing to be sneezed at, to be sure, but not even close to 700 ticks of incs.

Also, what exactly is wrong with teaming up on a stronger opponent?

[Clouds]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

Ultores' average size was never 300. They passed 400 on the fourth day of the round, 500 on the seventh, and almost 700 when you were first pushe into the red. And while we're speaking of losing roids, you only had a net roid loss 13 days this round. Nothing to be sneezed at, to be sure, but not even close to 700 ticks of incs.

If you had read my post properly, you would've read that CT attacked planets with an average roid count of 300.

[Mzyxptlk]

You expect me to believe CT hit the planets in Ultores with the least roids? Really?

[Blue_Esper]

no, they just put up ult planets with 300 roids as well as the 600 roid planets, both got incs

[neroon]

You guys seem to be missing the point. as i stated earlier, ultores manged to sneak in for the win due to haven and ct being not able to manage their planets properly. ult was awesome in every single way - had by far the best def, had reasonable attack power, did good in politics.. but it was opponents multimillion crashes that secured it for us afterbashing us by the block for 3/4th of the round.

Also, ure always forgetting a simple fact with the roundend incoming count: when ult attacks their opponents, they do it properly and throw out as many fleets as possible and this alsomeans, that fleets are recalled/relaunched several times on different targets + the random day-launches to whoever hits us at the time being. u will never see such a thing happening in ct, never.. and there u have another reason why theres more incs on ct or haven for instance..

And yes, theres a very big difference in gettin incs for the main part of the early round, when u have basicly a pod fleet and low value def fleet OR gettin incs while having sat most of the round without incs and on quite good value.

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by neroon

You guys seem to be missing the point. as i stated earlier, ultores manged to sneak in for the win due to haven and ct being not able to manage their planets properly. ult was awesome in every single way - had by far the best def, had reasonable attack power, did good in politics.. but it was opponents multimillion crashes that secured it for us afterbashing us by the block for 3/4th of the round.

Also, ure always forgetting a simple fact with the roundend incoming count: when ult attacks their opponents, they do it properly and throw out as many fleets as possible and this alsomeans, that fleets are recalled/relaunched several times on different targets + the random day-launches to whoever hits us at the time being. u will never see such a thing happening in ct, never.. and there u have another reason why theres more incs on ct or haven for instance..

And yes, theres a very big difference in gettin incs for the main part of the early round, when u have basicly a pod fleet and low value def fleet OR gettin incs while having sat most of the round without incs and on quite good value.

That might be it, but that would be a impressive tally to launch/relaunch over those five days or what CT had incommings. And surely, this is a tactic that is only trademarked for Ultores, surely this couldnt have happend over the early weeks when ultores had a few incs.
This might prove to be a excelent tactic then, ur wave get def, recall and free up more def fleets for the next sucker, and hope in the end everyone at the oposite side has launched def, and def dropped dead. No wonder Ultores wins with so many brilliant minds at their side.

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by Mzyxptlk

You expect me to believe CT hit the planets in Ultores with the least roids? Really?

Well that would atleast explain why Ultores managed to lose so very very few roids when they had hordes of dirty ganging alliances raping and pillaging their planets for 700 ticks.
Well, that and their god given talent of being the only alliance who sends out def fleets

[Kaiba]

Originally Posted by BloodyButcher

Well that would atleast explain why Ultores managed to lose so very very few roids when they had hordes of dirty ganging alliances raping and pillaging their planets for 700 ticks.
Well, that and their god given talent of being the only alliance who sends out def fleets

To be honest it wouldnt suprise me if that happened.

I would imagine that CT would put up a 10-12 planet raid, 3 1k+ planets, 4 800 roid planets then the rest 300-700 roids.

The 1k roid planets would be the highly active core and most likely in Ultores forts so they would get lots of ingal def and be online to complete the coverage via ally def.

The 800 roid planet would be using alliance def and would maybe get 3 out of 4 waves covered (and maybe get lucky that the uncovered wave was fake and would be a pod crash)

The rest, the 300-700 roid planets, would probably have a 50% chance of coverage, if incs wererent OTT then someone would try and cover them but maybe having being roided already that couldnt be arsed to wake up and DC 4 waves on their 400 roid planet...

On top of this CT would fear ingal defence on their raids and wouldnt be solely ptargetting Ultores, i would imagine any DFWTK and HR planets ingal would also be on the raid, and i would guarentee these planets got all their waves claimed!!! Thats how PA players play... hit the weak....

That would completely explain CT's decent nightly gains, the reason Ultores had to ground and why they also never suffered MAJOR roid losses

Another factor the lack of Ultores roid loss is that they oppurtunistically day raid on n00bs to regain roids rather than just reinting losses, something that no other alliance bar Apprime does in PA

[BloodyButcher]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Another factor the lack of Ultores roid loss is that they oppurtunistically day raid on n00bs to regain roids rather than just reinting losses, something that no other alliance bar Apprime does in PA

Well im sure that must be it then! When the alliance is grounding for 3 fleet def, there is oppurtunist who use their 4th fleet spot, and all the ships they dont use for def to make sure there are more ships who wont be ready for the next nightly incommings.
A lot of good reasons here why Ultores simply are better, even when everyone attacks them.

[Mzyxptlk]

It's amusing that you're being sarcastic, because, yes, that is pretty much how it works.

I send 3 fleets on defense. I get a text when attackers recall, so I can get my fleets back as quickly as possible. Then I do a random raid, which, again, I check early, to see if it's worth going to ETA 1. If I land, I gain roids and may still be home in time to defend some late incoming wave. If not, then I recall early and am home in time to cover some early incoming. Repeat ad nauseum.

(P.S. Of course, it's not actually me doing that, but you get the idea.)

[Kaiba]

It all goes through cycles on this thread...

main points are:

1) Ultores is better than PA than the rest
2) CT and the rest need to change how they play to compete with Ultores


I dont think that changing how you defend would have an adverse affect on CT in the long run, maybe a round or 2 where they drift down to 5th/6th in the rankings but its definately something they need to do if they are to acheive a credible win, the day of the DC is dead in PA, people need to take responsibility for their own planets. I would say their are too many people taking a free ride in all the allainces expect Ultores because of how they setup their defence.