Predictions R16

[Kargool]

So, lets give out that list.



1: 1up
2: Angels
3: LCH
4: New Dawn
5: Subh
6: Vengeance
7: TGV
8: ToF


Dark horses lurk under theese. DoS seems like a good alliance, but unsure at how serious they are. Elysium will prolly be in the top 10, but since they are not yet comfirmed as playing I wont predict them.

I think there will be a close race in the top till around mid round, then 1up will secure the win and start moving away. Might be abit later than midround, but mid round is as good as a guess as any.

[Dictator2]

I think, right around tick 970s I will meet someone in RL, I will then wonder whether I should once again prioritize a real love affair... but after learning from past mistakes, I will tell that someone: Beat it!!! and raise my middle fingers....

[furball]

1) 1up
2) Angels
3) LCH
4) DoS
5) Vengeance
6) NewDawn
7) Subh
8) TGV

I had to prioritise us, sorry.

[Pennywiser]

1) Angels
2) 1up
3) LCH
4) NewDawn
5) DoS
6) TGV
7) Subh
8) VGN


dunno about after 8, but i think Angels can finally win a rnd, it will be interesting to see how DoS goes and also ND after they claim to be not taking it serious, sort of covers there asses if they go bad as they have an excuss and if they go well they can still gloat

[Veedeejem!]

1) Angels
2) 1up
3) DoS
4) NewDawn
5) ToF
6) Subh
7) VgN
8) TGV
9) F-Crew
10) somebody

I see angels winning this round caus everybody will focuss on 1up as the biggest threath. DoS is a bit of a liability caus nobody knows yet how they'll play. ND also depends on how serious they're gonna play and if DLR is going solo or not.
Alliance 5-8 are all pretty equal imo so being a ToF member i put ToF on 5th and the others randomly behind
F-crew deserves to be in t10 but it isn't an equal force with ToF, Subh, TGV, VGN.
We're gonna see some other new allies next round so it's pretty much an open game in the lower end of the t10. I'm allready looking forward to it

[Cannon_Fodder]

1) 1up
2) Angels
3) Subh
4) DoS
5) random

[Grog]

1. 1up
2. Angels
3. NewDawn
4. LCH
5. TGV
6. ToF
7. Subh
8. VGN
9. f-crew
10. HR

[Kjeldoran]

I can pretty much agree with Kargool's top8. Actually I have 2 versions of a top 8. the objective one would be the same as Kargool's simply because 1up is the only alliance in that list that won a round and overall they still are the best alliance.
The other version is more or less a biassed version, and I only have to name 1 alliance in that version, the rest is irrelevant really

[Phil^]

Originally Posted by Kjeldoran

The other version is more or less a biassed version, and I only have to name 1 alliance in that version, the rest is irrelevant really

*gasp* surely you arent saying you think ND is gonna win

tbh predictions dont always hold true, i'd prefer to see the political situation when the round starts before sticking my neck out. theres a few alliances which have the potential to do well


( and yes kj i know you meant angels )

[Kjeldoran]

Originally Posted by Phil^

*gasp* surely you arent saying you think ND is gonna win

tbh predictions dont always hold true, i'd prefer to see the political situation when the round starts before sticking my neck out. theres a few alliances which have the potential to do well


( and yes kj i know you meant angels )

Yes I meant ND

And you're correct. Predictions only hold an entertainment value. It's fun to see what other pple predict/hope the outcome will be. Because let's be honnest, a prediction often includes personal preference.

In a 50 players limit round, alot of alliances can and will surprise.

[Veedeejem!]

i just noticed i totally forgot about LCH in my predictions, so put them in 4th & move everybody down 1 spot behind them

[pig]

1) Angels
2) 1up
3) LCH
4) Subh
5) dos
6) New Dawn
7) VGN
8) TGV
9) F-Crew
10) ToF

[Stoom]

A bit different then the others, I do suspect Dos and Subh are going to do good, Dos I wonder if they can keep it together though but they got the quality. Put Angels at 5th spot since well 1up and Angels are best alliances so I bet on 1up taking Angels down. ND will do great again, I think they are underestimated this round.

1) 1up
2) NewDawn
3) Dos
4) Subh
5) Angels
6) LCH
7) Elysium
8) Vengeance

[The_Fish]

1) 1up
2) LCH
3) ToF
4) Angels
5) Subh
6-10) who cares?

[Rember]

1) zz-crew
2) pr0nstars
3) VisioN
4) ChaoZ


thats what i think...

[Kjeldoran]

Originally Posted by Rember

1) zz-crew
2) pr0nstars
3) VisioN
4) ChaoZ


thats what i think...

Legator will be pissed off that you didn't include him ...

[Rember]

Originally Posted by Kjeldoran

Legator will be pissed off that you didn't include him ...

Legator loves me.. i guess he can't be pissed of at anything I say..
after all he's German and heh... well he just loves me \o/

but as you wish:

LEGATOR FTW!

VsN will come back in r22 i planned that... and woohoo i'm studying planning \o/

[Kjeldoran]

Originally Posted by Rember

Legator loves me.. i guess he can't be pissed of at anything I say..
after all he's German and heh... well he just loves me \o/

but as you wish:

LEGATOR FTW!

VsN will come back in r22 i planned that... and woohoo i'm studying planning \o/

You germans are a crazy bunch of pple

[Bromcrysal]

Of course, since it's a shorter round, there's always a chance that one of the smaller alliances will sneak in... GO ROCK!!

[Alki]

1. Angels
2. DOS
3. 1up
4. LCH
5. Subh
6. Elysium
7. ND
8. VGN
9. TGV
10. TOF

[Heartless]

1. - 3. Angels / DOS / LCH (in any given order)
4. 1up (gets the main attraction from the other 3 which could have a shot at #1, as usual. Especially now that eXilition ain't playing none of the alliances named for the first 3 spots can be called eXi lapdog)
5. You'll wish you'd never have asked for this.

That's it.

[Kjeldoran]

Originally Posted by Heartless

1. - 3. Angels / DOS / LCH (in any given order)
4. 1up (gets the main attraction from the other 3 which could have a shot at #1, as usual. Especially now that eXilition ain't playing none of the alliances named for the first 3 spots can be called eXi lapdog)
5. You'll wish you'd never have asked for this.

That's it.

Tbh, I think because of the fact that Exilition isn't playing, There will be less focus on 1up. Exi was the main drive behind the focus on 1up. From the moment they could, they kept a constant pressure on 1up and at no point did they weaken their grip on them.

I don't think DOS or LCH will jump on 1up at the first possible tick. I think 1up will not have the same amount of incs at the start of r16 as they had in r15. I could be wrong ofcourse but I honnestly think 1up will be the main candidate for the victory.

I can't speak of other alliances, but I know Angels isn't gonna look for allies to do our dirty work. So don't assume there will be a big anti 1up block made by other #1 candidates, because Angels will have no part in that.

Then again, politics change quickly during a round ... so nobody can predict what will happen during the round.

[SteInMetz]

1. 1up
2. Angels
3. NewDawn
4. LCH
5. DoS

[Stifler]

1-3 : 1up/Angels/LCH
4-6 : DoS/Elysium/Newdawn

[rnd|One]

1. Elysium (+recruits)
2. 1up
3. LCH
--
x) Angels (recruits)
x) DOS (disbanded)

[Legator]

Originally Posted by Kjeldoran

Legator will be pissed off that you didn't include him ...

FFS

i see myself in VisioN in that list

[Legator]

Originally Posted by Kjeldoran

You germans are a crazy bunch of pple

Rember aint german, he is some gay dutchie

/me hides

[Kjeldoran]

Originally Posted by Legator

Rember aint german, he is some gay dutchie

/me hides

ya but you remain a crazy german nonetheless

so I see you gave up on the going solo/allianceless idea then?

[Legator]

Originally Posted by Kjeldoran

ya but you remain a crazy german nonetheless

so I see you gave up on the going solo/allianceless idea then?

as i dont see happen what rember posted im not sure about myself. we will see where i end up. i surely wont be in one of the "typical" alliances because i enjoyed my last round toooo much (tho i dont see me ending up that high again).

[Kjeldoran]

Originally Posted by Legator

as i dont see happen what rember posted im not sure about myself. we will see where i end up. i surely wont be in one of the "typical" alliances because i enjoyed my last round toooo much (tho i dont see me ending up that high again).

Angels is not typical ... We're chaotic, inefficient, greatly lack political skills and they have me !!

And whether you end up high or not depends on when the round has an obvious winner and gets bored

[Mistwraith]

nice to see most underestimating Elysium... they aint been away from a pa based game u know ..
they are fresh to the fight and have the tools to succeed .. we will have to see if they have the member base..

i personally wouldnt discount them from top 5 unless someone has some undisclosed knowledge.

[Kjeldoran]

Originally Posted by Mistwraith

nice to see most underestimating Elysium... they aint been away from a pa based game u know ..
they are fresh to the fight and have the tools to succeed .. we will have to see if they have the member base..

i personally wouldnt discount them from top 5 unless someone has some undisclosed knowledge.

It's not so much about underestimating them. There are 2 big reasons why pple did not include them into their list:

1: Elysium has not comfirmed they'll play, so far I assume it's a rumour untill they do or untill I see an ingame tag.
2: alot of the Elysium members are no in other alliances, mainly 1up. I wonder if pple like Stifler would leave 1up for their 'home sweet home" Elysium

[lokken]

boredom

[Kargool]

Originally Posted by lokken

boredom

Thank you for your imput. Much appriciated

[Thex]

Interesting that no one has mentioned BIG or G-II. Their average scores put them as #8 and #11 ranked last round. With the lower member count it may well play into their hands more?

[lokken]

OK to clarify a bit more - I can't think of making predictions of any kind, simply because random events always screw them up. The previous attempts were pretty inaccurate. Similarly, I believe some predictions aren't entirely objective. Some are just the equivalent of pin the tail on the donkey. It is fun for some though, so it's all welcome on AD.

What I can see is boredom ahead though - I believe there will be political forces at work to contribute, but between whom exactly I don't know for certain, but they are alliances who I feel i can comfortably predict. I've chosen not to say any more, as all that will happen is accusations flying over the place that I can't be bothered to argue. I can see there is a degree of agenda at work in some posters, and the manoevring seems to contribute toward my point of view that we'll be seeing a winner emerge pretty quickly.

The problem is the two paragraphs above are pretty much a load of crap, so I just thought that 'boredom' would suffice.

[Tomkat]

The new alliance limit will have a huge effect on alliance positions this round (compared to how it would be with 100 or so as the alternative). Just 5 planets in an alliance now counts for 10% of the total score (or more).

Because of this, each and every player will need to pull their weight. The alliance will need to ensure each player plays to the best of their ability, and provides decent attacks and defence.

Based on this increase in responsibility to the officers/HC of the alliances, I'd predict 1up being top, with then Angels as #2, and LCH as #3.

[jerome]

cheerios is such a fag, right at the first post at the mention of ely, i had the WITTIEST LIST EVER in mind, but NOOO
he had to get there first.
@$#£1!&1


but yeah, i second his list wholeheartedly.

[Sjor]

Originally Posted by Stifler

1-3 : 1up/Angels/LCH
4-6 : DoS/Elysium/Newdawn

well said
you cant predict unless u have a block formed already
It would be unfair to create a block against 1up after them having such a bad round.
Guess we will attack the one that first hit us so behave ppl

[JonnyBGood]

This is a fairly confusing round. For starters you have exilition going and dos coming in, christ knows if they're even remotely in the same field of ability. Then you have the fact that all the top alliances from last round are cutting out 30 players. Where are these guys going? After that you have elysium possibly returning, are most of the ex-ely core that played in 1up going back there? I really don't think 1up will win this round, the political arena has the look of a minefield at the minute with a lot of alliances stepping up to the plate, VGN, subh, and lot of questions over the capacity of certain alliances for this round, ND, DoS. 1up, angels and LCH have the pedigree at this level (as well as ely if they play). I don't see any primary actors around in the sense that exilition were last round so it's difficult to judge the initial direction of the round. I'd very hesitantly bet on 1up with a surprise alliance in second, LCH in third and angels fourth or fifth.

[Blackbirdess]

Listen guys, I think you've all made a huge mistake, we all know that ROCK will make it into the Top10 this time.

[Ali]

1. LCH
2. 1up
3. Angels
4. NewDawn
5. DOS
6. VGN
... Elysium
7. TGV
8. PragmatiK
9. ToF
10. Rock
11. F-Crew
12. Howling Rain
13. Orbit
14. xVx
15. reinVENted
16. G-II
17. DLR
... APA
18. BIG
19. Violent-Saints
20. RoA
... Dark-Winter
21. Subh

"..." means unsure if playing
edit: added Subh and stuff

[Wishmaster]

1up will win.

Rest are to be decided

[JonnyBGood]

Originally Posted by Ali

1. LCH
2. 1up
3. Angels
4. NewDawn
5. DOS
6. Elysium
7. VGN
... Insomnia
8. TGV
9. PragmatiK
10. ToF
11. Rock
12. F-Crew
13. Howling Rain
14. Orbit
15. xVx
16. reinVENted
17. G-II
... APA?
18. BIG
19. Violent-Saints
20. RoA

... haven't heard if insomnia will play or not but assuming it should be easy for them to play again with the 50 man limit for the top 5 spreading some players out and making the mid and low ranks more competitive

Erm, you seem to have missed out on subh in that top twenty alliance ranking. Is this a subtle way of telling us that you're disbanding for the next round or are you really not optimistic about the future heh?

[pig]

Originally Posted by Wishmaster

1up will win.

Rest are to be decided

Thankyou for your faith in the capabilities and skill of 1up. However faith can only do one thing and this is give you a place in heaven (even that is disputed) Fact of the matter is that the game doesnt solely rely on skill (else angels would win every round) In fact it is political astuteness. Hence why I feel an alliance like Dos (which HC and members come from alliances associated and supportive of blocking) can do well. IF 1up is seen as the victor from tick 1, quite simply it will be blocked to hell and back, and certainly wont be the winner. Alliances like LCH or even ND would then do well to work there way up the ranks.

[Proxi]

I find this all slighly subhversive hohoho.

[Ali]

Subh isn't disbanding.. I was just sticking to top20 only :-/

[spaceman]

he wants to take the heat away from thw nap whores :P

[Kjeldoran]

Originally Posted by pig

Fact of the matter is that the game doesnt solely rely on skill (else angels would win every round) In fact it is political astuteness.

How nice

[Dictator2]

Any planned outcome will be a flawed theory, especially if you want to get as precise as to rank the top 20 alliances. I do think is gonna be Angels Vs 1up since Exi won't play and Ely's return is just a rumour so far. I really have no clue why people are putting somuch faith in DoS, I don't think they will do that great altho I amsure they will surprise us with almost any performance.

IN my opinion, the outcome will be decided not by numbers, not by quality, but like in any real war by simply:

1) who takes THE MOST advantage of unforeseen events (i.e. Exi last round)
2) The ability to not give up or crumble down after heavy fired (i.e. unlike ND last round)
3) AND who can sweet talk other groups to support somehow their cause (a.k.a. blocks or a very similar thing);

and I don't want to emphasize blocks as I know people hate them, but TRUTH BE TOLD it all boils down to who is more politically resourceful, or like stated above, "political astute"... pff, is amazing that some old players still believe ALL alliances play and/or should play by themselves. Its just a flawed believe, a false dogma preached by top players/alliances to keep minor ones weak and from becoming a threat.

If you ask me, 1up will come out victorius, is not that they want to win, they NEED to win.