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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:19   #1
HobbieRogue4
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See, Barry Bonds can do it.

Consider, will he break Hank Aaron's all-time home run record in two seasons or three?

He'll pass Rickey Henderson on the all-time walks soon, especially with opposing teams being so intimidated by his swing (and rightly so!), and unless he gets more chances to swing at the plate, it may take him three seasons.

Still, I'm aiming for two. How 'bout you?
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:21   #2
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Yes!
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:22   #3
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BOBZYBONDS!
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:27   #4
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No, I don't think HE has a chance
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:27   #5
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:29   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by Bobzeh
No, I don't think HE has a chance
Bobzy, are you saying that you've finally been 'taken'?
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:29   #7
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By whom Hobbiewoo!?
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:32   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by Bobzeh
By whom Hobbiewoo!?
That's what I'm asking. Were you taken?

Otherwise, who's 'HE' and what does he do?
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:33   #9
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'HE' is BobzyBonds and 'HE' can't do what Barry Bonds can!
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:34   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by Bobzeh
'HE' is BobzyBonds and 'HE' can't do what Barry Bonds can!
He should practice then. :/
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:35   #11
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Most probably so :(
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:35   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by Bobzeh
Most probably so :(
:(
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:37   #13
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Exclamation Re: See, Barry Bonds can do it.

Quote:
Originally posted by HobbieRogue4
Consider, will he break Hank Aaron's all-time home run record in two seasons or three?

He'll pass Rickey Henderson on the all-time walks soon, especially with opposing teams being so intimidated by his swing (and rightly so!), and unless he gets more chances to swing at the plate, it may take him three seasons.

Still, I'm aiming for two. How 'bout you?
I think if Bonds does it, he will have to do it in two. He's 39 and he's just not going to be able to maintain his pace much longer. I think the odds are against him doing it at all, though.
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:40   #14
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Re: Re: See, Barry Bonds can do it.

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Originally posted by Tactitus
I think if Bonds does it, he will have to do it in two. He's 39 and he's just not going to be able to maintain his pace much longer. I think the odds are against him doing it at all, though.
How so? Age doesn't mean everything, especially in longevity of the game. Jesse Orosco is still pitching, and he's 90-something years young.

It's said Bonds is in the best shape of his career. I agree, on the physical level. I'm only questioning the capability of the rest of the Giants; they've clenched the West Division already (yay!), but with General Management being 'so-so' on contract extensions, I'm wondering if he'll continue to have the plate-support he so needs.*

*Walking him with considerable power still in the line-up is risky, etc.
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:42   #15
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i doubt he takes the all time home runs mark.

he's got 88 to go.

he's 40.

he averaged about 40 hr a year for his career, which would put him at doing it in three seasons, but he's not going to keep it up. steroids can only do so much, look at mark mcguire.

but we'll see. being 40 and avoiding injuries seems unlikely,but if he manages that, and is willing to take a huge pay check to keep pursuing the record (a la pete rose) he could do it.
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:49   #16
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he'll do it, but in three
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 17:56   #17
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Quote:
Originally posted by acropolis
i doubt he takes the all time home runs mark.

he's got 88 to go.


Try 99.

Quote:
he's 40.


He's 39.

Quote:
he averaged about 40 hr a year for his career, which would put him at doing it in three seasons, but he's not going to keep it up. steroids can only do so much, look at mark mcguire.


You can disregard his 'career' as his swing has changed significantly since his injury in 1999. Since then, he's averaged 52.75 home runs in the last four seasons (as of current; still a few games left in the regular season). The lowest total being this season, with 43 (only 3 less than last). Injury or retirement are the only foreseeable things that could take him out.

And what the **** are you talking about steroids for?

Quote:
...and is willing to take a huge pay check to keep pursuing the record (a la pete rose) he could do it.
Current Contract: Signed five-year, $90 million contract in Jan., 2002.

What does that have to do with Pete Rose?
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 18:10   #18
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Exclamation Re: Re: Re: See, Barry Bonds can do it.

Quote:
Originally posted by HobbieRogue4
How so? Age doesn't mean everything, especially in longevity of the game. Jesse Orosco is still pitching, and he's 90-something years young.
Pitchers don't age nearly as fast as hitters; and power hitters are the worst of all. When they start to go, they tend to go pretty fast (see Aaron, Mays, etc).

I hope he does it but, like I said, I think the odds are against him.

My Twins playoff tickets are looking good though!
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 19:10   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by HobbieRogue4


Try 99.
my bad. i was thinking the record was 744 for some reason. that doesn't go very far to disprove my point tho.

Quote:
Originally posted by HobbieRogue4

You can disregard his 'career' as his swing has changed significantly since his injury in 1999. Since then, he's averaged 52.75 home runs in the last four seasons (as of current; still a few games left in the regular season). The lowest total being this season, with 43 (only 3 less than last). Injury or retirement are the only foreseeable things that could take him out.
Outside of the one season, he's never had more than 49 in any season. Again outside of that season, he's kept within the 33-49 range for ten seasons. That's pretty consistent.

But it certainly isn't going to go up anymore after he turns 40.

Only question is how sharp the drop will be and how soon.

I predict a mid 30's home run performance next year (maybe 315 ba), and a real slump the year after.

But that's just my guesses. 99 home runs is a lot to rack up.

Quote:
Originally posted by HobbieRogue4

Current Contract: Signed five-year, $90 million contract in Jan., 2002.

What does that have to do with Pete Rose?
I doubt he'll make it in five years.

Pete Rose was a great hitter. But as he got close to the all-time hit mark, he wasn't such a great hitter anymore. But he wanted the record, so he played a couple seasons after he should have and eventually took the title.

If Barry is willing to keep playing long enough, than he could make it no matter what.
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Unread 19 Sep 2003, 20:29   #20
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Exclamation

Quote:
Originally posted by acropolis
If Barry is willing to keep playing long enough, than he could make it no matter what.
Well, he still needs a team willing to give him some at-bats. If his numbers tank that's going to be more difficult (and that's assuming he's willing to take a pay cut).

Rose had a bit of an edge in that regard because, as a player-manager, he was able to pencil himself into the lineup.
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