Let's see. I will assume this will effectively abolish eitrades ships as they currently stand.
For a frigate fleet, a combination of nightmares and thieves is a solid one. This lets us pummel through pretty much everything (with no tycoon around). We need a frigate pod. The choice between the privateer and the vampyre is a trivial one - pods can hit cheap roids by damage, so we'll go with the armor one. We've dealt with fighters (zero-loss) and corvettes (nightmares fire before bombers so there's no ability to gnaw down us on that side, either).
Our next fleet piece will be a defensive one. We'll pick Dragon (for anticruiser) and Scorpion (to shut out battleship incomings). Both have highish EMP resistance (just 105% and 111% stuns from tarants), and they'll shut down a lot of incomings, given that cathaars are forced to choose between scorpion and tarantula anyways, which weighs down the tarant. Now we have anti-cruisers and anti-battleships sorted.
With the optimal flak theory, there are two solutions to this. One will rely on initiative and zero-loss (roach and rogue), the other will be more flexible (banshee and harpy). I'll opt banshee and harpy, for it provides a zero-loss against the pesky xandathrii frigates, and the banshee fires before both anti-fighter destroyers, anyways.
Let's see.
Banshee - Fighter > Destroyer
Harpy - Fighter > Frigate
Thief - Frigate > Fighter
Nightmare - Frigate > Corvette
Dragon - Battleship > Cruiser
Scorpion - Battleship > Battleship
We have a brilliant alliance defence fleet (banshee and harpy), a solid attack fleets that pretty much hits it (the frigates), and a loose fleet for missing parts of the self-defence (battleships). We still have a pod and a pair of ships to pick. Do I have to?
Well. The complementary corsair-viper fleet for the best ability to collect ships for our primary attack fleet. For trivial purposes, let's pick the corvette pod to accompany the fleetcatch fleet.
Revised:
Banshee - Fighter > Destroyer (fires before either DE fleet)
Harpy - Fighter > Frigate (zero-loss against xandathrii FR)
Corsair - Corvette > Frigate (to steal FR, shadows maybe)
Viper - Corvette > Frigate (to accompany the FR stealers)
Thief - Frigate > Fighter (zero-loss against xandathrii FI)
Nightmare - Frigate > Corvette (superior attack ship)
Dragon - Battleship > Cruiser (high-resistance defence ship)
Scorpion - Battleship > Battleship (zero-loss against terran BS)
This gives us with broad options. First, we're completely immune to the most annoying of the incomings - the xandathrii. It doesn't take a huge investment to the harpies to prevent, so we're off light there. A cut of banshees will be enough to see all destroyer incomings off too. To prevent zikonian frigates, we have the viper (to stun 139%-156%), and the corsair to pair it with (to steal frigates for our attack fleet). We're very hard for corvettes too - the our only real attack fleet fields an anti-corvette. Talking of which, we can practically attack any race with the attack fleet - with cathaars, we just need to plunge through flak (maybe we can steal some shadows). Then we have dragons and scorpions to reduce cruiser incomings and to completely stop battleship incomings.
Whoa. I'll take the -20% penalty, thank you.
edit. I seriously hope I bashed it hard enough to elaborate why -not-. Let me do it a bit more.
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Xan fi/co combo might be able to punch through. Or Co/Fr. Terran Fr/De or Cr/Bs. Cath Co/Fr or a large Cr fleet. Zik: large Fr fleet or something nice you stole.
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Xan fighter/corvette combination? Hardly. They will have to crunch through my nightmares first, and after that, their bombers get their guns at my powerful thieves. I probably don't need to comment on the terran frigate/destroyer combination. My dragons will give their share any syrens that attempt to to destroy my scorpions. You'll be looking at handsome losses before you get to take any shots. Large cathaar cruiser fleet - yes. That's a definate issue. But a neglible one, really. Tiny stuff. Because of the fact that the cathaar CR targets everything that targets it, and has initiative 2, it will be able to get through anything with no losses granted it's large enough. A large zikonian frigate fleet can do it, too - the vipers are there to hedge those off a little. If you're feeling particularily unsecure, you could just swap in bombers for either corvette. That'll deal with zikonian frigates. The same principle of paranoia also applies to swapping the remaining corvette for phoenixes to stop cathaar corvettes.
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4. at least 1 emp, 1 cloak, 1 steal and 2 normal ships (of which 1 Terran ship)
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Granted, this will limit swapping out the corvettes. Leaves you with being able to trade dragon for marauder (hence freeing the corsair for bomber or phoenix). Alternatively, nightmare for black widow (freeing the viper for bomber or phoenix). (de facto, nightmare and viper swapping for black widow and bomber for superior anti-corvette and anti-(zikonian)frigate).