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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 17:16   #1
MrL_JaKiri
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Probability Question
This is the question I liked the most from my STEP exam today.

Feel free to discuss it, or whatever.

13.

In a rabbit warren, underground chambers A, B, C and D are at the vertices of a square, and burrows join A to B, B to C, C to D and D to A. Each of the chambers also has a tunnel to the surface. A rabbit finding itself in any chamber runs along one of the two burrows to a neighbouring chamber, or leaves the burrow through the tunnel to the surface. Each of these three possibilities is equally likely.

Let pa, pb, pc and pd be the probabilities of a rabbit leaving the burrow through the tunnel from chamber A, given it is currently in chamber A, B, C or D, respectively.

(i) Explain why pa = 1/3 + (1/3)pb + (1/3)pd.

(ii) Determine pa.

(iii) Find the probability that a rabbit which starts in chamber A does not visit chamber C, given that it eventually leaves the burrow through the tunnel in chamber A.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 17:18   #2
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Why were you doing a STEP exam?
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He was crowned in York Cathedral as 'Expert in the West' by Pope Urban III in 1186.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 17:24   #3
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Quote:
Originally posted by Proteus
Why were you doing a STEP exam?
Doing STEP II and III so they can't argue with me changing to Maths.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 17:26   #4
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Originally posted by MrL_JaKiri
Doing STEP II and III so they can't argue with me changing to Maths.
Oh.

Sounds fun.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marilyn Manson
He was crowned in York Cathedral as 'Expert in the West' by Pope Urban III in 1186.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 17:28   #5
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Quote:
Originally posted by Proteus
Oh.

Sounds fun.
I did III today, so the easy one's on Friday.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 17:29   #6
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Why are you changing to Maths?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marilyn Manson
He was crowned in York Cathedral as 'Expert in the West' by Pope Urban III in 1186.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 17:31   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by Proteus
Why are you changing to Maths?
No practicals, half the number of supervisions.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 17:35   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrL_JaKiri
No practicals, half the number of supervisions.
That sounds like a very good reason.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marilyn Manson
He was crowned in York Cathedral as 'Expert in the West' by Pope Urban III in 1186.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 17:39   #9
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err, that should be random walks shouldn't it?
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 18:09   #10
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That sounds like a very good reason.
oi i went to trinity on monday it was nice you posh git. there was a crazy woman at the Wren library entrance though
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 18:13   #11
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oi i went to trinity on monday it was nice you posh git. there was a crazy woman at the Wren library entrance though
Everyone who works in the Library is crazy.

And yes, Trinity is nice.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 20:08   #12
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I don't like "Probability Question". Probability has nothing to do with math or science, it's all matter of luck.
Sadly, there is absolutely nothing rabbit can do to improve his luck. In fact, there's nothing anybody can to to improve their luck. At least not without tearing asunder the very fabric of the Universe.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 20:31   #13
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Everyone who works in the Library is crazy.
Quote:
My faince from yesterday
I got a job in a library!
yup
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 20:33   #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by the dying puppy
I don't like "Probability Question". Probability has nothing to do with math or science, it's all matter of luck.
Sadly, there is absolutely nothing rabbit can do to improve his luck. In fact, there's nothing anybody can to to improve their luck. At least not without tearing asunder the very fabric of the Universe.
Eh, surely the rabbit can go wherever he wants? How is his movements determined by luck?
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 20:45   #15
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The rabbit has already chosen his path. There is only one answer fools.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 21:00   #16
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The rabbit has already chosen his path. There is only one answer fools.
The question is, would the rabbit still have gone out at A if I hadn't said anything?
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 21:16   #17
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Quote:
Originally posted by huh
The rabbit has already chosen his path. There is only one answer fools.
But we don't know it.

Empirically, it's the same.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 21:47   #18
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Quote:
Originally posted by W
Eh, surely the rabbit can go wherever he wants? How is his movements determined by luck?
sure he can go wherever he wants, but where he ends up to be is up to his "luck".
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 21:52   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by the dying puppy
sure he can go wherever he wants, but where he ends up to be is up to his "luck".
Nonsense, where he ends up is up to his actions. "Oh gee, I was lucky that I bought that burger!"
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 21:57   #20
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Quote:
Originally posted by the dying puppy
sure he can go wherever he wants, but where he ends up to be is up to his "luck".
You're talking rubbish.

Get out of my thread.
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 22:04   #21
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Quote:
Originally posted by W
Nonsense, where he ends up is up to his actions. "Oh gee, I was lucky that I bought that burger!"
"Ohh gee, I'm so lucky that after choosing chamber A, I end up in shiny chamber B, just where I wanted to be"
See?
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 22:08   #22
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Quote:
Originally posted by the dying puppy
"Ohh gee, I'm so lucky that after choosing chamber A, I end up in shiny chamber B, just where I wanted to be"
See?
I told you to GET OUT OF MY THREAD
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 22:09   #23
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrL_JaKiri
You're talking rubbish.

Get out of my thread.
I have a comment on that too, but I will have to get back to you later on that one.
See, you are very lucky Al, luck. Because unfortunately I have to leave right now..
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Unread 25 Jun 2003, 22:13   #24
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I have had nightnmares about maths questions like that
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 00:41   #25
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I was quite sure I made a second reply to this thread.

anger++
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 10:18   #26
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Quote:
Originally posted by Proteus
Everyone who works in the Library is crazy.

And yes, Trinity is nice.

anyone who works in any library is crazy, trust me, i know cos thats my job \o/
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 17:18   #27
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I guess MrL_JaKiri aren't so lucky today. He still without the answer to his very unlucky question.
Better luck next life!
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 17:30   #28
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I guess MrL_JaKiri aren't so lucky today. He still without the answer to his very unlucky question.
Better luck next life!
Eh? You mean he didn't answer this question on his examn? Why do you think so? Of course he has the answer, he's not stupid like you.
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 18:12   #29
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Quote:
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Eh? You mean he didn't answer this question on his examn? Why do you think so? Of course he has the answer, he's not stupid like you.
I'm sure he did answer on his question on exam, but nobody answerd his question in here.See?


p.s. I'm not stupid! I'm special.
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 18:58   #30
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I'm sure he did answer on his question on exam, but nobody answerd his question in here.See?


p.s. I'm not stupid! I'm special.
It wasn't his question at all. And why would anyone answer it?
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 19:01   #31
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Quote:
Originally posted by the dying puppy
I guess MrL_JaKiri aren't so lucky today. He still without the answer to his very unlucky question.
Better luck next life!
I posted it so people who like this kind of thing could attempt it, not to see if I got it right.

I know I got it right.
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 19:02   #32
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Nusselt single handedly makes these forums a better placeNusselt single handedly makes these forums a better placeNusselt single handedly makes these forums a better placeNusselt single handedly makes these forums a better placeNusselt single handedly makes these forums a better placeNusselt single handedly makes these forums a better placeNusselt single handedly makes these forums a better placeNusselt single handedly makes these forums a better placeNusselt single handedly makes these forums a better placeNusselt single handedly makes these forums a better placeNusselt single handedly makes these forums a better place
oi look at your pms
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 19:07   #33
the dying puppy
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Quote:
Originally posted by W
It wasn't his question at all. And why would anyone answer it?
Oh, I don't know, I haven't read the whole thing. Complicated things always hurting my brain, so I don't even bother read 'em.
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 19:17   #34
the dying puppy
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Seriously though, MrL can you explain how it works?
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 19:21   #35
MrL_JaKiri
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MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.
Quote:
Originally posted by Nusselt
oi look at your pms
Replied.
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 19:21   #36
MrL_JaKiri
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MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.
Quote:
Originally posted by the dying puppy
Seriously though, MrL can you explain how it works?
I can.
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 19:23   #37
queball
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queball contributes so much and asks for so littlequeball contributes so much and asks for so littlequeball contributes so much and asks for so littlequeball contributes so much and asks for so littlequeball contributes so much and asks for so littlequeball contributes so much and asks for so littlequeball contributes so much and asks for so littlequeball contributes so much and asks for so littlequeball contributes so much and asks for so littlequeball contributes so much and asks for so littlequeball contributes so much and asks for so little
I get:
(i) it's obvious
(ii) 7/15
(iii) 45/49
Not checked though.
I didn't do this question, and I didn't do well at all . How did you do?
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 19:24   #38
the dying puppy
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrL_JaKiri
I can.
I want to know.
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Unread 26 Jun 2003, 19:27   #39
MrL_JaKiri
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MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.MrL_JaKiri has ascended to a higher existance and no longer needs rep points to prove the size of his e-penis.
Quote:
Originally posted by queball
I get:
(i) it's obvious
(ii) 7/15
(iii) 45/49
Not checked though.
I didn't do this question, and I didn't do well at all . How did you do?
i yes
ii no
iii no

I did 1, 3, 5, 7, 8 (I don't like the mechanics one, so I gave up doing all the odd numbers) and 13.

II tomorrow!
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Unread 27 Jun 2003, 11:44   #40
Cyp
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Code:
|  0  |   |  0  1/3  0  1/3  0   0   0   0  |&infin; |  1  |
|  0  |   | 1/3  0  1/3  0   0   0   0   0  |   |  0  |
|  0  |   |  0  1/3  0  1/3  0   0   0   0  |   |  0  |
|  0  | = | 1/3  0  1/3  0   0   0   0   0  | * |  0  |
|  pa |   | 1/3  0   0   0   1   0   0   0  |   |  0  |
|  pb |   |  0  1/3  0   0   0   1   0   0  |   |  0  |
|  pc |   |  0   0  1/3  0   0   0   1   0  |   |  0  |
|  pd |   |  0   0   0  1/3  0   0   0   1  |   |  0  |
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Structural Integrity for Creator - since he'll probably make PA turn 3D.
Wikipedia forum
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