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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 08:36   #1
Belgarath The Sorcerer
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[FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Disclaimer: I'll give my standard advice here first: The golden rule of gambling is to only bet what you can afford to lose.

This is my first week of gambling for the new season, didn't do anything last weekend because I was working. I'm going with my usual £5 stake, but I'm having two bets with it.

My customary treble:
Code:
Swansea @ 3/1
Southend @ 3/1
Wrexham @ 12/5
£2.50 stake returns £136
This treble is outstanding value, and all three teams have a good chance of winning.

Wacky accumulator:
Code:
Blackburn @ 7/4
Charlton @ 7/4
Tottenham @ 5/4
Man City @ 4/6
Birmingham @ 15/8
Villa v Bolton - Draw @ 2/1
Man Utd @ 8/11
£2.50 stake returns £1056.23
Opening day betting is a risky business, but this is what I think will happen. You'll note I've stayed away from including Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea in this wacky accy - that's because you should never bet on your own team (it's unlucky), and Arsenal and Chelsea are playing tomorrow.
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 10:13   #2
roadrunner_0
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

good luck with those, sound like fairly good bets to me
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 11:29   #3
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

"Proper" bet for the weekend.

Chelsea (-1) to beat Wigan (HANDICAP) 20/21
Man Utd to beat Everton 8/11
Tottenham to beat Portsmouth 6/4
Gretna to beat Raith 5/6
Arsenal to beat Newcastle 2/5

£5 returns £108.19


Draw Treble

Fulham vs Birmingham DRAW 11/5
Aston Villa vs Bolton DRAW 9/4
Sunderland vs Charlton DRAW 9/4

£2 returns £67.60

Miracle Handicap Accy

Man utd (-1) to beat Everton (a) 21/10
Tottenham (-1) to beat Portsmouth (a) 7/2
Liverpool (-1) to beat Middlesborough (a) 7/2
Hearts (-1) to beat Dundee Utd (a) 10/3

£3 returns £816.08

All odds BlueSq.com
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 11:36   #4
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Im really not sure on Swansea, Hudderfield have always had a good home record, and been there or thereabouts on playoff positions. Aside from Lee Trundle, Ive not seen anything from Swansea that says theyre good enough to win a match like this.

The Shima Trebles

Villa @ 2.20 - Big Sam's teams get rebuilt in Summer, and take a little time to Gel. Borgetti will start but take time to settle. Phillips is a solid signing up front, and with Juan Pablo Angel, can fire Villa into Europe.
Portsmouth @ 2.75 - Play up Pompey! A little bit of the head ruling the heart here, but Pompey at home over the last few seasons have taken a lol of Scalps, and to be underdogs with the bookies is just asking for a backlash.
Leicester @ 2.20 - Defeat to Sheffield United didnt phase them, and they stormed back midweek. Levein's team are sharp passers and in David Connolly have arguably the best striker in the league. Ipswich havent looked the same since Burley left years ago, and Kuqi and Ambrose leaving hurts them tremendously

£2.50 bet returns £31.75. Not as spectacular as Belgy's 3 aways , but more solid IMO.


Aberdeen @ 7.00 - Its at Pittodrie. The Dons are playing well. Its always an absoloute war, and Rangers fans and players are too confident by half right now after beating Famagusta and watching Celtic get spanked. Lee Miller is in good form ,Barry Nicholson always has a point to prove against Rangers, and McLeish already has a 2 point lead in the league. Upset of the season so far on its way!

Hearts @ 2.25 -This team is in real danger of challenging the Old Firm. After last weeks demoltion of Hibs, the Jambos are playing a United team thats strong, physical, but will be tired after their midweek european heroics against MyPa. Skacel is one of the best strikers seen here in a long time, and Burley is a coach who was seriously considered for an Old Firm berth a few years back.

Gretna @ 1.80 - TBH , there are 3 things in life you can rely on. Death , Taxes, and Gretna beating every team between here and the SPL for the next 2 seasons. Far too much money and talent and a good coach, this team will win Division 2 at a canter this season.

£2.50 Stake returns £78.75. Aberdeen match seems risky, but its no more Risky than a Swansea away trip.
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 11:40   #5
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Scottish Premier Dundee Utd 1-1 Aberdeen 30-07-2005
Scottish Premier Aberdeen 1-2 Kilmarnock 06-08-2005

"good form", kura?

Rangers (-1) are unfortunately better value than Aderdeen straight, or (+1). Its not going to happen unfortunately, but your optimism makes me happy.
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 11:46   #6
Kurashima
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
Scottish Premier Dundee Utd 1-1 Aberdeen 30-07-2005
Scottish Premier Aberdeen 1-2 Kilmarnock 06-08-2005

"good form", kura?

Rangers (-1) are unfortunately better value than Aderdeen straight, or (+1). Its not going to happen unfortunately, but your optimism makes me happy.
Aberdeen v either half of the old firm at Pittodrie is a lottery most years. If you prefer, ill call it a "Gut Feeling". But I still fancy it.
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 11:53   #7
Deffeh
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Perhaps.

BTW, i got an email from Skybet whom i also have an account with. They said if i make a £20 bet, i get a £20 free bet.

It MIGHT just be tailor made for my account, but if anyone has a Skybet account, try and type "0805" into the promotional code box in the "freebets" tab of your account details. Itll tell you whether it worked or not (also, do it before you make the bet)
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 12:07   #8
Kurashima
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
Perhaps.

BTW, i got an email from Skybet whom i also have an account with. They said if i make a £20 bet, i get a £20 free bet.

It MIGHT just be tailor made for my account, but if anyone has a Skybet account, try and type "0805" into the promotional code box in the "freebets" tab of your account details. Itll tell you whether it worked or not (also, do it before you make the bet)
Not got one, but i would bet (sic) that if i opened an account, theyd give me a free £20 bet anyway.
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 14:19   #9
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima
Leicester @ 2.20 - Defeat to Sheffield United didnt phase them, and they stormed back midweek. Levein's team are sharp passers and in David Connolly have arguably the best striker in the league. Ipswich havent looked the same since Burley left years ago, and Kuqi and Ambrose leaving hurts them tremendously
It's like you sound knowledgeable but don't really know what you're on about. Leicester are a bad team and that is not just from my bias. I work with many season ticket holders and they say the team is lacking in many areas - I certainly wouldn't agree with "stormed back".
Plus - for a lot of last season, Ipswich looked like they were going to go up automatically before finally finishing third??

Still, I think you are right in that Leicester will win.
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 14:38   #10
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Lee Miller plays for United Kura, not Aberdeen.



They never got him, we did! hahahaha
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 15:15   #11
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
"Proper" bet for the weekend.

Chelsea (-1) to beat Wigan (HANDICAP) 20/21
i hate to voice my lack of knowledge in this area, but whats the (-1 handicap) about?
is it they have to win by more than 1 goal or something?
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 15:18   #12
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Yep. Same as all of my other handicap bets

Imagine the game starts Chelsea (-1) - 0 Wigan, instead of 0-0.

For example, Man Utd won 1-0 earlier in my handicap bet
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 18:30   #13
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Todays Profit : £17

Treble (Man U , Morton , Gretna) - £1.63 Stake , £11.40 return
Single (Wolves) - £4 Stake, £6.46 return
Trebles from 5 (Wolves , Berwick , Celtic , Hertha Berlin, Arbroath) - £5 total stake (10 bets) - £12.63 return
Treble (Pompey , Leicester , Villa) - £1 stake , no return.

Belgy/Deffeh , how did you get on today?
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 23:09   #14
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

As you can see, not so well.

Draw Treble
Fulham/Birmingham was a 0-0 draw
Villa/Bolton was a 2-2 draw
Sunderland lost 3-1 to charlton. This is despite it being 1-1 and charlton having a man sent off. Eliiot missed a sitter, gray missed a good chance inside the penalty area, and they somehow lost a late goal on the counter attack. Can you say Relegated? Bye bye sunderland. Mick McCarthy continues his awesome managerial career in the prem.

Miracle Handicap Accy
Man Utd (-1) beat Everton
Tottenham (-1) beat Pompey to leave me looking like a hero
Liverpool (-1) didnt beat Boro at all, let alone by two, so
Hearts (-1) to beat utd becomes irrelevant

"Proper" Weekend bet
Man Utd beat Everton
Tottenham beat Portsmouth
Gretna beat Raith

So if Arsenal beat Newcastle tomorrow and
Chelsea (-1) beat Wigan

I make £108.19, which would be £98 profit for the weekend.
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 23:17   #15
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

see, i'd say thats not bad, but i'm not a hardcore gambler .
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Unread 13 Aug 2005, 23:23   #16
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Its pretty good, if it comes in, but you cant count your chickens before theyve hatched

Also, after man utd and tottenham both won by 2 goals, i thought i was on for a big big big win.
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Unread 14 Aug 2005, 18:18   #17
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Deffeh , please see above reference to "Optimistic SPL Bets".

Im sure youre smiling right now.
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Unread 14 Aug 2005, 18:20   #18
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima
Aberdeen @ 7.00 - Its at Pittodrie. The Dons are playing well. Its always an absoloute war, and Rangers fans and players are too confident by half right now after beating Famagusta and watching Celtic get spanked. Lee Miller is in good form ,Barry Nicholson always has a point to prove against Rangers, and McLeish already has a 2 point lead in the league. Upset of the season so far on its way!

Hearts @ 2.25 -This team is in real danger of challenging the Old Firm. After last weeks demoltion of Hibs, the Jambos are playing a United team thats strong, physical, but will be tired after their midweek european heroics against MyPa. Skacel is one of the best strikers seen here in a long time, and Burley is a coach who was seriously considered for an Old Firm berth a few years back.

Gretna @ 1.80 - TBH , there are 3 things in life you can rely on. Death , Taxes, and Gretna beating every team between here and the SPL for the next 2 seasons. Far too much money and talent and a good coach, this team will win Division 2 at a canter this season.
Did ANYONE take this advice for a 1-2-3 and a huge return?
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Unread 14 Aug 2005, 21:59   #19
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

unlucky deffeh, no one could have predicted that crap display from chelski
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Unread 14 Aug 2005, 23:08   #20
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

I am the most unlucky person in the world

fact
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Unread 15 Aug 2005, 17:17   #21
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Nope, zero proft. My treble didn't pay off, and the crazy accy was just that - crazy. I did call the Villa/bolton draw though
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Unread 21 Aug 2005, 19:23   #22
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Belgy , Deffeh , can we have your updates from the weekend please.

Ill lob some Laddies screenshots up for mine, since i had a cracker.
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Unread 21 Aug 2005, 19:28   #23
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

In reverse order (since the last ones were the winners are the first went to crap
The middle
The beginning

Belgy , your analysis please. Deffeh, your opinons if youve finished demonstrating outside Parkhead, and anyone else, just throw in your thoughts since it makes for an interesting debate.
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Unread 21 Aug 2005, 19:58   #24
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Kura that is definately a comprehensive betting strategy, and I've got to say it looks to be quite profitable. What's your profit for the weekend? (I'm too lazy to work it all out). It's not the sort of thing that I can afford to do at the moment, unless your talking small stakes. But then small stakes and larges profits is good at the end of the day. I might look into it for the midweek, but then I'm revising for resits so it could maybe wait till the weekend.

I had a 6 game accumulator let down by newcastle yesterday... talk about putting all your eggs into one basket. I should have done a Heinz, it would have paid quite nicely.

I've yet to record a 'win' this season, even though I've got several games spot on - this is telling me I need to start doing some sort of cover bet, like a patent, trebles from five or a heinz.

edit: After reading my post again - for my 6 game accumulator yesterday, I really should have done 2 patents and a heinz, 2 x £2.50 patents and 1 x £5 heinz, which would have been quite a good profit. I shall test this theory out.

edit 2: Kura, I've just looked at your screenshots again, and I think you should consider doing a Canadian or a Heinz. You've got several bets where you have a £1 accy, followed by the same teams in a trebles from five or six. A canadian/heinz is a full cover bet, which includes an accumulator. I suspect if you do the math it would work out much more profitable.
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Unread 21 Aug 2005, 22:22   #25
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

the tactic is pretty simple. Theres 6-8 teams on a saturday you can pretty much guarantee a victory for IF THEY PLAY AT HOME. Hence you throw a series of 50p trebles on 5 of them, and back that up with a £1 accumulator.

Profit for the weekend was around £56. Im puzzled though as to how my 6 team , 25p a shot trebles came in 6/6 and yet only made me £13 from a £5 stake. Can you throw a little light on that one?

Edit : Belgy , if you can explain the cost and reasoning behind covering that with a Candian or a Heinz , and how they work, ill consider it for next week.
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 18:54   #26
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deffeh
Perhaps.

BTW, i got an email from Skybet whom i also have an account with. They said if i make a £20 bet, i get a £20 free bet.

It MIGHT just be tailor made for my account, but if anyone has a Skybet account, try and type "0805" into the promotional code box in the "freebets" tab of your account details. Itll tell you whether it worked or not (also, do it before you make the bet)
Yeah, I got the same thing from Skybet.

Unfortunately its not a 'freebet' in any real terms, you have to place a £20 stake on a bet, and you can then use your freebet to effectively double the stake, so you'd have to have a pretty certain bet to use it in my opinion.

Still holding onto mine as I havent really seen anything worth a punt as yet, but I dont know as much about lower league / scottish football as you boys, so I'll be keeping my eyes open for some words of wisdom.

Not had much luck this season, £20 invested, returns of 0. Would have had a nice win if it hadnt been for Chelseas last minute winner against Wigan.

Also, slightly off topic, anybody worked out how to make Skybet show odds as fractions instead of ****ing decimals?
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 18:57   #27
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Pretty good one for you Rids

Hearts against Anyone except the Old Firm.

Gretna against pretty much everyone in their division except Morton

Anyone who plays Newcastle just now
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 19:41   #28
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima
Hearts against Anyone except the Old Firm.
of COURSE i'm going to say this.

but other than us, the jambos have played dundee united (shit, miller or no miller), killie (no goal threat ever since boyd's been looking to leave), us and aberdeen (neither team turned up).

the jambos are looking good, sure. but their four results so far only mean they can beat teams playing badly, or lacking key positions. i can see motherwell taking points off them this weekend providing they field a fit keeper, and cally thistle in three weeks should push them hard.

i think 'anyone against livingston' is a better bet.
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 20:22   #29
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

United actually outplayed Hearts for 75 mins aswell (((






bunch of absolute dirty bastards, constantly breaking play down by fouling or diving. They have definately picked up the foreign influence
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 20:22   #30
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima
Profit for the weekend was around £56. Im puzzled though as to how my 6 team , 25p a shot trebles came in 6/6 and yet only made me £13 from a £5 stake. Can you throw a little light on that one?
Maybe it's because your betting on a number of home bankers, at middle to high odds on - it's not much of a return. Without a list of the odds I can't say much else really.

Quote:
Edit : Belgy , if you can explain the cost and reasoning behind covering that with a Candian or a Heinz , and how they work, ill consider it for next week.
Similar to what I just said above, give me a list of your 2 6/6 trebles and I'll do some maths and lay it out for you. You might have to pm it me, cause I'm revising for resits at the moment and shouldn't really be doing this at all...

The only trouble with a Canadian or a Heinz is that while you may win some money, it might not be enough to cover your stake - this is only a factor if you make poor selections when picking your teams.
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 20:28   #31
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Torz
bunch of absolute dirty bastards, constantly breaking play down by fouling or diving. They have definately picked up the foreign influence
yes, but they aren't historically irish so the entire of the scottish and indeed british press fully intends to gloss over this
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 20:30   #32
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

a sharp increase of Union jack's following Hearts about atm too
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 20:58   #33
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Belgarath The Sorcerer
Maybe it's because your betting on a number of home bankers, at middle to high odds on - it's not much of a return. Without a list of the odds I can't say much else really.


Similar to what I just said above, give me a list of your 2 6/6 trebles and I'll do some maths and lay it out for you. You might have to pm it me, cause I'm revising for resits at the moment and shouldn't really be doing this at all...

The only trouble with a Canadian or a Heinz is that while you may win some money, it might not be enough to cover your stake - this is only a factor if you make poor selections when picking your teams.
6/6 trebles were in the link (page 1 i think) along with the odds.
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 21:00   #34
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phang
of COURSE i'm going to say this.

but other than us, the jambos have played dundee united (shit, miller or no miller), killie (no goal threat ever since boyd's been looking to leave), us and aberdeen (neither team turned up).

the jambos are looking good, sure. but their four results so far only mean they can beat teams playing badly, or lacking key positions. i can see motherwell taking points off them this weekend providing they field a fit keeper, and cally thistle in three weeks should push them hard.

i think 'anyone against livingston' is a better bet.
4 games. 13 goals. 2 conceded. 12 points.

I dont care how you look at it, you cant argue that everyone hearts play underperforms on the day. Yes , theyve had an easy start, but theyre where they are on merit so far. and until theyre playing the OF, ill keep betting on em.

As for them losing points to Motherwell? **** sake, they conceded FIVE goals to Torz' mob. How the hell are they going to keep out a proper strikeforce?
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 21:00   #35
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Torz
a sharp increase of Union jack's following Hearts about atm too
yeah. it's not quite at hun proportions though.

mind you i would have thought this should be turning up any time now..

edit:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima
proper strikeforce
there's your answer.
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 21:05   #36
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Cmon , accept it. Hearts bought well in the summer, strengthened a decent squad and didnt lose any star players for the first summer in about a decade. Hibs didnt acquire anyone seriously good, and whilst they still have probably the best young team in Scotland, Mogga hasnt managed to blend youth and experience to the right level yet.

Its hard being a Hibbee right now , but when they play the OF and lose both games, come back to earth with a bump, itll feel a whole lot better.
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 21:11   #37
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima
Cmon , accept it. Hearts bought well in the summer, strengthened a decent squad and didnt lose any star players for the first summer in about a decade. Hibs didnt acquire anyone seriously good, and whilst they still have probably the best young team in Scotland, Mogga hasnt managed to blend youth and experience to the right level yet.

Its hard being a Hibbee right now , but when they play the OF and lose both games, come back to earth with a bump, itll feel a whole lot better.
they bought well, but they strengthened a squad with FOURTEEN first team players remaining; graham 'open goal' weir and dennis 'left feet' wyness being the only two strikers. skacel's started well, but he's their best signing. Burley's a good manager though, tainted by association though he now is.

And we didn't sign anyone because our board is stealing about £3m of our annual £6m turnover. we had to send a centre-back we had on trial back to his club because we couldnt afford his wages. his club was STIRLING ALBION.

yes, it's hard being a hibee, but not because of the scummers' flash in the pan - instead, because of Rod Petrie and his gang of merrie men, who steal from the club to give to the rich.
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 21:16   #38
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Aye , its hard , but is that money goin directly into the pockets of Petrie and Co, or are they simply a bunch of bampots that borrowed more than they could afford on the back of "Future Scotland Superstars" who all let their contracts run out and then **** off?

And you think its bad for you? We signed a 39yr old Stirling Albion defender and he RETIRED before he could play his first game. Our star striker is a 30+ killie reject and his partners a Rangers u21 centre back because we have no other forwards.
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 21:19   #39
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima
Aye , its hard , but is that money goin directly into the pockets of Petrie and Co, or are they simply a bunch of bampots that borrowed more than they could afford on the back of "Future Scotland Superstars" who all let their contracts run out and then **** off?
no, not that. the £3m being spent accounts for maintenance (fairly small, well-designed stadium - low), transfer fees (5 grand plus TRACKSUITS since mogga came in), wages (£1m p.a for the first team for ****s sake) and debt reduction (£4m over 4 years...)
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 21:21   #40
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phang
no, not that. the £3m being spent accounts for maintenance (fairly small, well-designed stadium - low), transfer fees (5 grand plus TRACKSUITS since mogga came in), wages (£1m p.a for the first team for ****s sake) and debt reduction (£4m over 4 years...)
Do you trust them to get the team on an even keel when those 4 years are up, and will the Hibees "Academy" or whatever theyre calling it now actually make a difference?
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 21:25   #41
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima
Do you trust them to get the team on an even keel when those 4 years are up, and will the Hibees "Academy" or whatever theyre calling it now actually make a difference?
what academy? we don't have an academy. mogga wants an academy, if that counts.

we do however get all of the edinburgh talent because the jambos are mostly a migratory team a la man united - all their fans come from elsewhere. as such, all the kids are hibees and want to play for us.

anyway. the team will be doing ok financially when the debt is up - but we'll be £12m out of pocket. if it arrives suddenly as a transfer fee/contract war chest that's fine, but until then....

put it this way: if we wont stretch to 4 grand a week for deeks, what makes you think we'll be spending in the future?
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 21:53   #42
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurashima
Profit for the weekend was around £56. Im puzzled though as to how my 6 team , 25p a shot trebles came in 6/6 and yet only made me £13 from a £5 stake. Can you throw a little light on that one?
"Trebles from Six" - 'This is a combination bet on all possible combinations of your selections. These trebles are resolved as per standard trebles.'
So that's 20 trebles at 25p per treble, on high odds on. Which is why you got such a poor return.

On those selections:

Accumulator would have won around £35 for a £5 stake (proffit++)
A Heinz would have won around £18 for a £5.70 stake (almost quadroupling your money)
Doubles from six would have won around £9.55 for a £4.95 stake (thus doubling your money).
Trebles from six would (did) have won around £13 for a £5 stake (almost trebling your money).
4 from 6 would have won around £19 for a £4.95 stake (almost quadroupling your money).
5 from 6 would have around £26 for a £5.10 stake (5x the cash, flash.)

Now, aside from the accy, those are all multi-combination bets, the heinz being the only full cover bet as it includes an accumulator as well.
Obviously, the doubles from 6 and the trebles from 6 are the least profitable of the combo bets.

You'll notice on Kura's screenshot (receipt 000210) that he has done the same bet as just an accumulato (£1 stake)r and as trebles from 6 (£5 stake). So both bet's have won him a total of £20.51 for a total stake of £6, which is a total profit of £14.51
The Heinz would have made less total profit, at around £12.30 or so.
The 4 from 6 and 5 from 6 would have made the most profit along with the £1 accy.

Now this is where it get's complicated, and I haven't got time to do all the maths or setup a spreadsheet to work it out, but:

Obviously, if one game of the accy doesn't go your way, your ****ed. No money back.
With the other bets, you are guaranteed some sort of return even if one of your selections doesn't perform as expected.

I think I'm right in saying that the Heinz performs best (ie returns the most profit) in this situation, but I could be wrong.
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Unread 22 Aug 2005, 22:51   #43
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

TBH Belgy , the Trebles are all I actually play on the weekends. Im aiming for 4/5 and a minimum of 80% of my stake back, so when all 5 come in , i make enough to cover say 2/3 other trebles of the same stake that have maybe only done 3/5 or 4/5. The £1 accy is just to add a bonus if it comes in. If i play 5 x £5 trebles and 5 x £1 accy's for a total £30 stake per weekend. Now the odds of all 5 trebles failing and none of the accys coming in for a set of teams where the highest odds i bet anywhere are around 2.20 , is pretty slim.
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Unread 23 Aug 2005, 17:03   #44
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Tuesday 23rd August:
Code:
Event:   Scottish; Queens Park vs Hearts  
Market:   Win-Draw-Win  
Selection:   Hearts@1/10  
Event:   European; Panathinaikos vs Wisla Krakow  
Market:   Win-Draw-Win  
Selection:   Panathinaikos@2/5  
Event:   European; Valencia vs Hamburg  
Market:   Win-Draw-Win  
Selection:   Valencia@8/13  
Event:   European; Liverpool vs CSKA Sofia  
Market:   Win-Draw-Win  
Selection:   Liverpool@1/6  
Event:   English; Sunderland vs Manchester City  
Market:   Win-Draw-Win  
Selection:   Manchester City@5/4  
Event:   English; Portsmouth vs Aston Villa  
Market:   Win-Draw-Win  
Selection:   Portsmouth@11/8 

Accumulator (6)    
  1 line at £1.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £1.00
Potential Return: £15.51  
Fivefolds from 6    
  6 lines at £0.84 per line
Total stake for this bet: £5.04
Potential Return: £51.66
The 3 European games are pretty much stonewall certs, as the odds reflect. Hearts are another stonewall given the form that they are, which is reflected in their 1/10 odds on price. The money comes from the two Premiership games. Man City, on paper at least, have enough to beat Sunderland, and while Sunderland played well against Liverpool, i just think that City have shown more dertimination under Pearce than they ever did under Keegan. Portsmouth is the weak link, and I could very well rue not choosing Villa instead, however Villa didn't show much bite against Utd, and Baros can't play till Saturday and given their injurie situation I feel that Villa are one of the teams that Portsmouth can beat at home, especially when you look at Villa's horrendous away record last season.

Fivefolds from 6 yields the best return for around a fiver, assuming all the games win of course, with a Kura-esque £1 accumulator thrown in for good measure.
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Unread 23 Aug 2005, 18:15   #45
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Quote:

Bet Type = Canadian
Stake = 0.25
Bets = 26

To win : Hearts (1.16) , Kilmarnock (1.16) , Liverpool (1.16) , Aberdeen (1.11) , Gretna (2.62)
Gretna obviously being the risky one here against SPL opposition, but with a strong squad, tons of cash, huge confidence, and playing at home , Gretna very nearly upset Dundee United last season, and United are a far better side than the Pars.

Quote:

Bet Type = Canadian
Stake = 0.20
Bets = 26

To Win : Ipswich (1.36) , Leeds (1.50) , Sheff United (1.28) , Aberdeen (1.11) , Wolves (1.22)
Self explanatory. A series of very low odds home bankers. Designed to at least cover one of the other bets should it not come home.

Quote:

Bet Type = Canadian
Stake = 0.20
Bets = 26

To Win : Ipswich (1.36) , Lens (1.40) , Burnley (1.40) , PK PArtizan (1.36) , Falkirk (1.28)
Another series of home bankers, and yes, experienced watchers will know ive bet against my own team here by backing Falkirk, but the Jags are absoloutely dire just now, and should , unfortunately , easily be beat. Ill happily pay out the fiver if it guarantees us a win.
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Unread 23 Aug 2005, 19:51   #46
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

PS

Belgy , dunno if youve seen this already, but well useful in finding more Generous odds on a Saturday

http://odds.betrescue.com/Default.aspx?#
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Unread 23 Aug 2005, 22:12   #47
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

That would involve having accounts at a load of different bookmakers... can't be arsed with that, I've one at Ladbrokes and one at BlueSquare. Two is enough.

BTW: Football tonight: poor. Just re-emphasizes my belief that you should never bet on your own team (when you want them to win).
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Unread 24 Aug 2005, 01:23   #48
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Indeed.

I was at Hampden tonight, actually.

Hearts werent exactly awe inspiring. Dont be fooled by his two lucky goals, edgaras jankauskas is INDEED as fat and useless as he appears
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Unread 24 Aug 2005, 23:28   #49
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Wednesday 24th August:

Bolton, Blackburn, Arsenal, Chelsea, Man Utd, Villareal in a £1 accy + 10p (£5.70 total) Heinz.

Stupid Blackburn didn't win, meaning the accy was down the pan, and from the Heinz I had 26 winning lines and 31 losing lines (a heinz is 57 lines, for a full cover bet) which made me £8.25. If Blackburn would have won I'd have collected around £45 altogether, which is a healthy profit for such small stakes.

So in total this evening I gambled £6.70 and won £8.25. It's not a massive profit, but at least I've covered my outgoings for tonight. Obviously there is someway to go before I recoup my losses from the start of the season..
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Unread 27 Aug 2005, 19:12   #50
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Re: [FOOTY] It's Gambling time again kids

Saturday 27th August:

Aston Villa, Mancheser City, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Leeds and Millwall.

£1 accy + 10p (£5.70) Heinz - in total would have won me £223 had Millwall won... or had I picked a better sixth team. 5/6 returned £28.81 on the heinz, which covers my bets for the day. (I'm not mentioning the terrible performance on the horses I had today ).
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