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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 17:40   #1
Hebdomad
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Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

In response of the awful repression of holocaust revisionists Europe and Northern America, Iran has held a conference to discuss the issue!

So, when do you think we'll invade?
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 17:41   #2
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Within 3-6 years. It depends on how soon the propeganda machine swings into action to prepare and condition the public to be in favour of it.
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 17:53   #3
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

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Originally Posted by Phil^
Within 3-6 years. It depends on how soon the propeganda machine swings into action to prepare and condition the public to be in favour of it.
There's no way that shit will fly in America again for a decade at least. People are far too pissed off about Iraq already. I believe Iraq was the number two issue in the recent elections, after corruption.
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 17:58   #4
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

They are irritated with the current administration yes, but once they are gone - i suspect americans will simply 'forget', or care less about it.
Apathy is a powerful force there - and people too easily distracted with new things. Its the "ooh shiny" factor.
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 18:03   #5
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil^
They are irritated with the current administration yes, but once they are gone - i suspect americans will simply 'forget', or care less about it.
Apathy is a powerful force there - and people too easily distracted with new things. Its the "ooh shiny" factor.
I don't see how they're going to forget when they're probably still going to be in Iraq/Afghanistan for a few more years.

Also, would you give the same level of the "ooh shiny" factor to countries other than America, or is it just them who are stupid?
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 18:05   #6
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

what can i say - im a cynical person

I wouldnt say that all americans are more stupid then people in other countries, but in my experiance they tend to be more easily distracted from important issues.
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 18:20   #7
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Racist.

In 3 to 6 years they'll have proper nuclear weapons though.
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 18:21   #8
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

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Originally Posted by Phil^
I wouldnt say that all americans are more stupid then people in other countries, but in my experiance they tend to be more easily distracted from important issues.
What experience is this?

As I understand it, the political situation is extremely polarised in America atm (within the tiny, right wing, political spectrum) and has been for some time. With roughly half of the voters being Republicans and half Democrats. What we saw in 2000 and 2004 were extremely close (moreso in 2000) presidential elections that could have gone either way. There are numerous reasons Bush won twice though, which I assume we are all reasonably familiar with (cheating, Kerry being shit, etc.). What happened in 2006 was that a lot of the independent voters who had voted for Bush in the past or who had simply stayed at home before decided to vote Democrat instead due to disillusionment. These are people who were fooled by the spiel on Iraq, people who thought there were WMDs and so forth. The amount of people who still buy this stuff has gone down recently as it's become clear how much of a mess it is and how little reason there was to be there in the first place.

I really don't see it as likely that these people are simply going to forget what happened and be all gung-ho about another war (with a bigger, more developed country) when it has gone so badly last time. They would need to be ridiculously forgetful/shortsighted/stupid for this to happen. I wonder if you have any more evidence that they really are this stupid apart from the prevailing stereotype here that "lol Americans are stupid lol".

Not that I'm saying that a Republican won't win in 08, that's certainly possible... but a war with Iran? Nah.

Then again maybe I'm just an optimist!
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 18:26   #9
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

from what i see of americans via the internet, americans who study at my university on the computing courses, how they post and so on.
Afaik the political spectrum in america follows the 'bell curve' pattern - with the bulk of the people taking a centrist role. There is a (very vocal) minority on both left and right wings that tend to get most of the attention however and so its easy to see politics there as being polarised
Like i said though, perhaps im just being too cynical - but i really dont have that much optimism in what will happen Rg: Iran
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 18:40   #10
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

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Originally Posted by Phil^
from what i see of americans via the internet, americans who study at my university on the computing courses, how they post and so on.
Afaik the political spectrum in america follows the 'bell curve' pattern - with the bulk of the people taking a centrist role. There is a (very vocal) minority on both left and right wings that tend to get most of the attention however and so its easy to see politics there as being polarised
Politics there has become polarised over the last 12 years (in 1994 the Republicans got a majority in the congress which they only lost last month) for a number of reasons. One of them being a reduction in bipartisanship and an unwillingness by the party in power to debate with and listen to the Dems. I read an article about the congress just before the 06 elections and it was full of Democrats complaining that they played no part at all in the decision making process any more. Most Democratic countries have committees which do a lot of the work on bills and are populated by people from different political parties, not just the ones in power. This was the tradition in America until recently, when the republicans, who controlled all 3 branches of government from 2000-2006, effectively pushed their own agendas only.

This ties in with the Bush style of presidency (expand executive power, do whatever I want!) which contributed to it as well. It's not a case of the political climate becoming more polarised on it's own, it's more one of the party in power abusing that power and giving the others no recourse to affect events. This made Republicans more powerful and Democrats more angry, hence polarisation.

Granted, all this post is cobbled together from articles/threads/news reports I've been reading over the last few years, I don't have any one particular source I could link you to, but it's what I've observed, and it makes sense to me. The overall effect we are seeing now is a backlash against the Republicans (and especially Bush) after the policies failed and they literally have no-one else to blame. I don't see how this could POSSIBLY lead to war with Iran unless they created nuclear weapons and said they were actually going to destroy Israel with them. Something ridiculously unlikely given that the Iranians know the consequences of such actions as well as everyone else.
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 19:03   #11
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Iraq was a country that fought a massive war with iran, got a beating in gw1 then dealt with 12 years of sanctions, yet it hasn't exactly turned out to be a walk in the park. I would seriously question the sanity of anyone who suggested invading iran.
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 19:34   #12
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

I think a more important issue is whether America could afford another war. And if they did, I presume the Middle East generlaly would be in flames within a few months which I presume would seriously destablalise the global economy.

Of course, if Iran directly attacked Israel (highly unlikely) then all bets are off. If Iran attacked Israel with some kind of nuclear weapons then I don't see how there could be less than three or four million deaths in the resultant war.
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 19:48   #13
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

at the moment, i would consider it more likely that israel attacks iran, rather then the other way around.
Iran know that any such act would be suicide, so it'll be a last resort thing if anything.
Israel however have the states bending over for them no matter what they do so they arent likely to care too much
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 20:31   #14
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I think a more important issue is whether America could afford another war. And if they did, I presume the Middle East generlaly would be in flames within a few months which I presume would seriously destablalise the global economy.

They could certainly pay for it, whether that dollar amount was worth it is another matter.

The US has a $13 trillion economy, whilst the costs of war are massive they don't pay for them as they go along. The war in iraq has cost $380 billion to date, i know the website counters say less but thats because they count down the amounts appropriated to the date they've been appropriated, ie it'll reach the $380 billion in march. Within a year the direct costs will be over half a trillion and will match the direct value taken by stiglitz for his final total calculation, in other words after next year the final cost of war will be over $1.5 trillion.

The important point is the US taxpayer hasn't (yet) had to pay for that 380 billion, its all been done outside the federal budget and on loan. Infact the US pretty much pays for all its wars on loan, and what they call the 'mandatory payments' section of their budget is to quite an extent made up of interest/loan repayments for things like vietnam. Because the US had such a dominant economy in the 20th century they could get away with doing that, the global reserve status of the dollar means they can chalk up massive debt. Britain on the other hand doesn't fight its wars on tab, we have a special reserve we set aside for these matters so the cost of war hasn't been as much of an issue for us.

The US could invade iran and run up a multi-trillion dollar debt to finance it, whether it could afford that in the long term depends on whether you take the warren buffet approach of

"the stock exchange will be 100,000 pts by 2050 and we'll outgrow any debt"

or the more skeptical

"the dynamics of the 21st century will be different for the US than the 20th, and besides tax receipts are a more important indicator than the absolute size of the economy. The US tax payer will either have to pay more or go without in other areas"
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 20:36   #15
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

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Originally Posted by milo
They could certainly pay for it, whether that dollar amount was worth it is another matter.

The US has a $13 billion economy
I'm assuming this is a mistake?
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Unread 12 Dec 2006, 20:50   #16
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

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I'm assuming this is a mistake?
Yeah, he means trillion.
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Unread 13 Dec 2006, 01:22   #17
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

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Originally Posted by milo
They could certainly pay for it, whether that dollar amount was worth it is another matter.
Well, there's lot of things that could be paid for, it's whether they could be afforded which is the issue. Many people with low incomes but good credit ratings could probably buy sports cars, but it's doubtful they can be said to afford them.

Overall, I doubt the American public or Wall Street would "allow" the government to engage it the sort of madness you're describing, unless there was a significantly stronger consensus about a potential war (e.g. Israel was attacked, or Iran was proved to be involved in a serious attack on the United States) than currently exists.

Also, you've only mentioned financial costs. It's not clear whether the American army can (in it's current form) recruit enough soldiers to fight another large scale conflict (on top of Iraq and Afghanistan, and if they left both conflicts you can bet those places would explode (even more so) especially if the Americans were simultaneously fighting another Muslim state. Sure, they could increase pay dramatically and cut standards of recruits, but those policies only work for a limited number of soliders.
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Unread 13 Dec 2006, 02:39   #18
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Well, there's lot of things that could be paid for, it's whether they could be afforded which is the issue.
Which was pretty much the summation of my point, us policy has been to out grow any debt it runs up, as long as their growth outstrips the debt they can afford it (assuming we take a simply view on tax receipts)

Quote:
Overall, I doubt the American public or Wall Street would "allow" the government to engage it the sort of madness you're describing, unless there was a significantly stronger consensus about a potential war (e.g. Israel was attacked, or Iran was proved to be involved in a serious attack on the United States) than currently exists.
I honestly don't think the us public nor the british, matter all that much. Without violence im not sure opposition to the war in iraq could have been more clear. How would the public not 'allow' the government to do what it wants? Wallstreet wouldn't like the uncertainty but im not sure why they'd be against a war for any other reason.

Quote:
Also, you've only mentioned financial costs. It's not clear whether the American army can (in it's current form) recruit enough soldiers to fight another large scale conflict (on top of Iraq and Afghanistan, and if they left both conflicts you can bet those places would explode (even more so) especially if the Americans were simultaneously fighting another Muslim state. Sure, they could increase pay dramatically and cut standards of recruits, but those policies only work for a limited number of soliders.
If they were smart they'd only have to worry about the financial costs, private military contractors aren't exactly thin on the ground in iraq. War can't be completely privatised, but the US army could outsource if it didn't want to grow.
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Unread 13 Dec 2006, 11:42   #19
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Isreal will attack Iran within 1-2 years and destroy their nuclear stations. What happens after that depends upon Irans response.
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Unread 13 Dec 2006, 12:14   #20
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Quote:
Originally Posted by milo
I honestly don't think the us public nor the british, matter all that much. Without violence im not sure opposition to the war in iraq could have been more clear. How would the public not 'allow' the government to do what it wants?
The American public broadly supported the war in Iraq (at first) so I'm not sure what you mean by that. But in terms of exercising power, the people (who almost always hold power, even if they do no realise it) then there's a variety of ways feedback signals can reach the government:
i) Increased political hostility to governing party candidates. The Americans have elections all the time and while the parties are not as united / centralised as in the UK, it's understood one can still "punish" the Republicans by voting for Democratic congressmen and so on.
ii) Depressed consumer confidence in terms of spending.
iii) Depressed investor confidence, where people choose to invest more overseas.
iv) Increased politicisation which can lead to other internal conflicts. More demonstrations, labour struggles, growth in extremist or "outsider" parties.
v) Opinion polls.

Speaking more abstractly, if the majority of people in a nation really did not want to a war to continue then it would be very easy for them to stop it. Let's imagine 70% of the UK refused to go to work until troops were recalled. How quickly do you think the war would stop? Now, of course that would not happen - there is not that level of consciousness required for such enormous mobilisation. But it's quite clear the government do not act in some alternate dimension, totally divorced from the activities of it's citizens.
Quote:
Wallstreet wouldn't like the uncertainty but im not sure why they'd be against a war for any other reason.
I can think of quite a few companies who would be against the deficit spending on the level you're talking about. And a conflict with Iran would probably mess up international trade in unexpected ways, which again, would be opposed by a lot of business leaders.
Quote:
Originally Posted by milo
If they were smart they'd only have to worry about the financial costs, private military contractors aren't exactly thin on the ground in iraq. War can't be completely privatised, but the US army could outsource if it didn't want to grow.
It's not a matter of "wanting" to grow. The US army is having trouble meeting its recruitment targets at present. It is beginning to recruit :
1. Older soldiers (as old as 42)
2. According to some, soldiers with known histories or links to fascist and/or white supremacist groups.
3. Soldiers with lower test / assesment scores.
4. More soldiers with prior criminal convictions.
etc.

The overall pool of available talent is not necessarily there. Outsourcing everything doesn't really change the fundamentals - aside from making everything more expensive - as I understand most of the security contractors are ex-army guys anyway. Increasing the role of private contractors will probably reduce the amount of people in the regular army. Maybe there's a rich seam of highly trained and reliable foriegn soldiers somewhere, but I'm not sure where they'd be coming from.

And as I say, the resources required to invade Iran in the next five years would dwarf the Iraqi costs. Iraq had been under sanctions for a long period of time. The majority of the population was at least partialy hostile to the incumbent regime. The Americans had experience fighting the Iraqi army and had earlier heavily reduced their strength. And so on. That they can fight a war with Iran (as well keeping their Afghanistan and Iraqi operations in place) by simply throwing money at it seems unlikely. Especially as I suspect people might be more skeptical about the optimistic scenario painted before the Iraq invasion.
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Unread 13 Dec 2006, 16:05   #21
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Although I doubt the west will attack soon, I wonder what will happen when Iran gains nuclear weapons. At the moment Iran poses no real threat even though they're highly aggressive towards the west, but should they stay like that and then develop nuclear weapons there could be another cold war, between the west and the middle-east.

The strategy with the least amount of collateral damaged attached is to influence the government and to one day hopefully have another pro-western government elected. But that looks highly unlikely, especially as the Iranian government already suppresses freedom of speech.

I doubt we will invade, but through not doing so I suspect this will grow and grow and grow to the detriment of the west. It will be highly interesting in regard to what Israel does; I suspect CrashTester may be right.

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Unread 14 Dec 2006, 20:47   #22
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
The overall pool of available talent is not necessarily there. Outsourcing everything doesn't really change the fundamentals - aside from making everything more expensive - as I understand most of the security contractors are ex-army guys anyway. Increasing the role of private contractors will probably reduce the amount of people in the regular army. Maybe there's a rich seam of highly trained and reliable foriegn soldiers somewhere, but I'm not sure where they'd be coming from.

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Unread 14 Dec 2006, 22:03   #23
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

I'm not sure they're reliable.
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Unread 14 Dec 2006, 22:21   #24
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Iran will make threatening gesture towards Isreal. Isreal will pre-emptively batter 10 shades of shit out of Iran, and the entire middle east will group together in an attempt to wipe Isreal off the map.

That will drag America, and probably the U.K. into an all out assault on the godless heathens in the middle east.
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Unread 14 Dec 2006, 22:30   #25
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
...
We don't want to like these countries and therefore we find reasons not to.
Uhm. 1) What's the rational for not liking these countries in the first place? 2) Are you basically saying our policy is to snub liberalising countries instead of approving of their cultural liberalisation so we can later kick 3.14 shades of shit out of them later?
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Unread 14 Dec 2006, 22:38   #26
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

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Originally Posted by Toccata & Fugue
What the hell are you talking about?
Batman.
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Unread 14 Dec 2006, 23:00   #27
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

That's Bantam.
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Unread 14 Dec 2006, 23:37   #28
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

I know you are but what am I?
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Unread 14 Dec 2006, 23:42   #29
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

you are Bantam
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Unread 14 Dec 2006, 23:45   #30
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

lol
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Unread 15 Dec 2006, 06:11   #31
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Quote:
Originally Posted by CrashTester
Isreal will attack Iran within 1-2 years and destroy their nuclear stations. What happens after that depends upon Irans response.
I doubt Isreal will be doing this, they have a leash on them after their poor performance in the summer. Who ever wins in 2008 in America you can guarantee they'll be more for engagement rather than any other foreign adventures.

Most likely nothing will happen, Iran will develop nuclear weapons but not use them, Iran will continue to play up and make trouble where ever they can in order to increase their regional power.
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Unread 15 Dec 2006, 07:13   #32
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Exclamation Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hicks
I doubt Isreal will be doing this, they have a leash on them after their poor performance in the summer.
I doubt they could do it in any case. Their planes don't have the range to get to Iran and back without refueling and they don't have all that much in the way of air-to-air refueling capability. There're also several more-or-less hostile arab/islamic countries (Syria or Jordan for starters, then either Turkey or Iraq*) they'd have to fly over just to get to Iran (and fly over again to get back). And then fly over several more times as it will take several strikes to eliminate Iran's dispersed and hardened facilities.


*Yeah, we could help them in Iraq with a base to refuel and rearm, but at that point we might as well do it ourselves.
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Unread 15 Dec 2006, 18:22   #33
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hicks
I doubt Isreal will be doing this, they have a leash on them after their poor performance in the summer.
This reply needed research to be properly informative, but wasn't there a popular backlash because the attack on Lebanon wasn't successful, meaning the electorate would probably support another attack if it were more likely to be successful?

Israel is obviously researching into how to properly attack nuclear facilities as we speak. It's common sense to do so.
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Unread 15 Dec 2006, 19:09   #34
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

I doubt there's the political will in Israel itself to take the risk of attacking Iran especially while Olmert is in power. It's also very unlikely that any such strike would be a success, it would certainly be far harder to achieve than wacking Hezbollah was supposed to be. As Tacticus pointed out logistically attacking Iran would be very difficult to execute but I also doubt anyone has clear picture of what's being done where and where exactly to strike, I also imagine that at least some of the work is done underground to limit the possibility of a conventional strike taking it out.

In addition the leash comment was in relation to America rather than the Israeli public. The US gave the nod for the war in the summer taking a large political risk in order to stem the rising influence of Iran and Syria, this backfired and now one of the bright pro Western governments in the Middle East is on the verge of collapsing. I doubt America will be so quick to support Israel again in what would be a far riskier operation.

The solution to Iran lies with engagement not with military force, neither the US nor Israel can really stop Iran developing a nuclear weapon, the reality is that a nuclear Iran is inevitable, better to accept that and start working with them for a positive outcome, rather than rattle sabers when nothing can realistically be done anyway.
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Unread 16 Dec 2006, 17:45   #35
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil^
what can i say - im a cynical person

I wouldnt say that all americans are more stupid then people in other countries, but in my experiance they tend to be more easily distracted from important issues.
Thank you very much for the vote of confidence. When it comes to matters of a foreign nature we are really quite tuned in. Such as that place over in Europe or Africa or Asia that we sent some troops. I think that what we were doing is uh, uh, what were we talking about?
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Unread 18 Dec 2006, 21:20   #36
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Re: Iran: Beacon Of Liberty!

Haha, didn't Iraq do this before the US decided to invade? Also, one mustn't say good things about Iran.
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