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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 13:54   #1
Virall
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Lightbulb The Peace Pipe

Ok, so the end of the round is bestowing itself upon us again. This is a forum for serious posts, and trolling is not aloud. With this in mind:

I have prepared the following statement.

This round has been my toughest, so congratulations for that to eXilition who, relentlessly, have denied my sleep every night for the past two months. I subsequently have a cold and when I hand over the beer im serving at work, my hand wobbles and I spill the last third of the pint. I try to explain to the customers that i actually lead a double life, rather like that of Neo in the well known Wachowski (or however its spelt) film, The Matrix.

" I go by an alias Virall and talk to my other 'word-friends' on IRC (which i later go on to explain is the multiplayer notepad). They talk to each other and we send different number to each other at night. Im spilling your beer (name blocked out for advertiising reasons) because my enemies are sending me lots of numbers in the early hours of the morning, and my word-friends are the only people that can help."

At that moment, when i've refilled their pint with froth that has gathered in the pipe of the pump; i present myself with a more rational idea:

Why don't we all get along and attack each other during the day? This way everyone will get much more sleep and I will be able to go to work with more confidence.

This post may be viewed by some people as a whole piece of literary junk. However, for the people that have been playing the game for a long time, the irony is very much in the truth.




Back to the serious point though. Congratulations to everyone that has made this round worthwile, cheers to eX and co. for a great war that has challenged us and refuelled competition within the highest ranks. And perhaps more importantly, to the smaller alliances growing and moving forward; well done to you too.



For some unfathamable reason, I had to share this with you; queue the flames!
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 14:13   #2
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Re: The Peace Pipe


























But seriously stop playing so much or you'll get fired
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 14:20   #3
Virall
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Re: The Peace Pipe

But its unreasonable of my manager to except me to be in tip-top condition after a night of incs.


SURELY?
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 14:40   #4
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Re: The Peace Pipe

Well when you put it that way.......










No.
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 14:40   #5
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Re: The Peace Pipe

I've decided that attacking at night is actually pointless, because we're all awake at night anyway, so why not just save ourselves the trouble and attack at convenient times, say 2pm and actually live with more normal sleeping patterns.
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 14:43   #6
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Re: The Peace Pipe

*rubs chin*


Thats so crazy it might just work!
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 14:44   #7
Virall
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Re: The Peace Pipe

I think this idea, if it works was patented by the original post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Virall
Why don't we all get along and attack each other during the day? This way everyone will get much more sleep and I will be able to go to work with more confidence.
If it doesnt work, its Lokken's suggestion!

Quote:
Originally Posted by lokken
I've decided that attacking at night is actually pointless, because we're all awake at night anyway, so why not just save ourselves the trouble and attack at convenient times, say 2pm and actually live with more normal sleeping patterns.
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 14:49   #8
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Re: The Peace Pipe

I haven't closed this as insomnia is a related topic to alliance activities.

not bored

honest
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 14:51   #9
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Re: The Peace Pipe

So now the first alliance to use the attack at daytime thing will win...hmm...as all other allies will be sleeping(at home or at work)

Interesting
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 14:57   #10
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Re: The Peace Pipe

you know its a sinn to spill beer? Allmost as worse as losing roids!
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 15:01   #11
Virall
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Re: The Peace Pipe

Im excellent at both.
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 16:46   #12
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Re: The Peace Pipe

I remember back in round 6, the standard attack times were about 01:55-03:55 UK time. Over the rounds, that has gradually got later and later, and it is now about 04:55-08:55 (although round the clock attacking is a lot more common). If we carry on, come round 18, we'll all be attacking at midday.
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 17:33   #13
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Re: The Peace Pipe

Quote:
Originally Posted by Virall
I think this idea, if it works was patented by the original post:

If it doesnt work, its Lokken's suggestion!
It's a simple example of game theory, and the prisoners dilemma.

Think about it like this:

The utility (payoff in success rate - disadvantages of no sleep) of attacking during the night when everyone attacks during the night is 4

The utility (payoff in success rate - disadvantages of no sleep) of attacking during the night when everyone attacks during the day is 10

The utility (payoff in success rate + advantages of sleep) of attacking during the day when everyone attacks during the day is 7

The utility (payoff in success rate + advantages of sleep) of attacking during the day when everyone attacks during the night is 1

I am making assumptions in the above that you get the most utility (benefit) from attacking at night when everyone else attacks during the day and that you get the least utility (benefit) from attacking at day when everyone else attacks during the night. I think these assumptions to be true for the great majority of players

Which gives the following matrix:

............................................................................Player 2
...............................................................Night.............................Day
Player 1............................Night..................4,4.............................10,1
........................................Day...................1,10............................7,7

In each of the payoff results (x.y), x represents the utility for player 1 and y represents the utility for player 2

It is the dominant stratergy of both players to attack during the night because:

If player 2 attacked during the day, player 1 would be best off by attacking during the night. If player 2 attacked during the night, player 1 would still be better off attacking during the night. Under no circumstances would player 1's best option be daytime attack (the same for player 2).

There is a more optimum outcome (7,7) for everyone (apart from Aussies maybe) available if we all attacked during the day and actually got some sleep. But this won't happen UNLESS player 1 knew that player 2 would only attack during the day if player 1 also attacked during the day.

We cannot force this situation, and nor is there any way to bring it about through incentives (in this circumstance). Because people can cheat (attack at night when everyone else sleeps) the system and get away with it and if a few people (or alliances or whatever) attack at night with success, more will do it and eventually everyone will be back attacking at night.

In order to stop this kind of cheating you have to offer a credible punishment (e.g. threatening to major retal on anyone who attacks at night and realistically backing that up) for attacking at night, and even if you had that you would have to have an indefinately repeated game (PA is not). In a repeated game, where people know how long it will last, they will always cheat (attack at night) on the last turn, and so they will cheat (attack at night) on the turn before that and so on, and it becomes apparent that there is no flawless system of incentive to convince people that they should attack during the day.

If someone can solve this problem, you're a genius: John Nash couldn't (all he could do was identify the problem). But for now, we all play, get no sleep, watch during the day. The insomniacs and the Aussies rule the game.

i.e. it's not gonna change
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Last edited by Furyous; 7 Jun 2005 at 12:33.
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 18:52   #14
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Re: The Peace Pipe

i've had several death threats for that post. This is a public apology! please spare me...
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Unread 6 Jun 2005, 22:47   #15
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Re: The Peace Pipe

lol I found it hard going myself hehe.

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Unread 7 Jun 2005, 09:41   #16
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Re: The Peace Pipe

lol; I think it's world class. Never when I begun the post, did I think that someone would come up with such a theory.

My hat goes off to you!
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Unread 7 Jun 2005, 11:27   #17
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Re: The Peace Pipe

edited a little - hopefully makes it more comprehensible and less inaccessible. Also I apologise for the table cos I don't know how to code a proper table in these forums.

Thanks Virall, but I must say that John Nash identified the problem, I just adapted it to PA
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Unread 7 Jun 2005, 11:33   #18
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Re: The Peace Pipe

When You Sleep People On The Other Side Of The World Are Awake!
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Unread 7 Jun 2005, 11:55   #19
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Re: The Peace Pipe

Prisoners dilemma wins the day, its really just a simple excercise in mutual self interest vs greed.

Greed will win.

Ace explanation btw.
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Unread 7 Jun 2005, 12:08   #20
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Re: The Peace Pipe

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikard
When You Sleep People On The Other Side Of The World Are Awake!
They have the best of both worlds at the mo. Hence my exception with Aussies. But seeing as most the people who play this game (i'd guess 80%+) are European, I would say that the model is very realistic.
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Unread 7 Jun 2005, 20:38   #21
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Re: The Peace Pipe

to any post that seems maths related
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Unread 7 Jun 2005, 21:03   #22
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Re: The Peace Pipe

Quote:
Originally Posted by teknik
to any post that seems maths related
It's not maths (or even related), it's an economic model based around expected unility theory. There are no equations or calculations, only assumptions and arguments. It just happens to be the best way to describe the particular problem. I'm sorry if I use numbers to make things clear.

oh and, the mechanics of this game are very mathmatical.
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Unread 8 Jun 2005, 00:09   #23
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Re: The Peace Pipe

I said it was world class; i didn't say i read it. That would simply be impossible.
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Unread 8 Jun 2005, 11:28   #24
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Re: The Peace Pipe

Quote:
Originally Posted by Furyous
It's not maths (or even related)
my apologies then, i could have sworn i did something almost identical to this in decision and discrete mathematics last year..
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Unread 8 Jun 2005, 11:37   #25
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Re: The Peace Pipe

I wonder if it would be possible to just put matchsticks under my eye lids to stay up 24hrs a day, maybe I could pay somebody to do my sleeping for me?

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