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Unread 2 May 2006, 13:11   #1
Ste
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[very long]Peak Oil

Ok, I got this email from my dad saying to read this.
Then he texted me as well so I decided to actually read it.
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/fre...m_speech.shtml

I'm posting it here because after reading it I thought a number of you would be interested in it and also because I thought it might spark some debate about some of the points raised.

It's also an interesting read for 30 mins or so...

For further reading after that there is Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century which I haven't read yet (lunch break is over ) but think could be interesting as well.

What do you think?
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Last edited by Ste; 2 May 2006 at 13:21.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 13:29   #2
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Exclamation Re: [very long]Peak Oil

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Originally Posted by Ste
What do you think?
I'd be glad to pump the oil out of your peak anytime, big boy.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 14:32   #3
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
For further reading after that there is Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century which I haven't read yet (lunch break is over ) but think could be interesting as well.
My lunch breaks have a nasty tendency to extend into sometime next week. That said my sleep break is over so I won't read it until later
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Unread 2 May 2006, 14:48   #4
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

tldr;
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Unread 2 May 2006, 15:00   #5
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Knight Theamion
tldr;
Pssh I was under the impression we all had read that many moons ago when it was posted here and most other places on the internet.
Doesn't anyone know how to start a mass panic these days? I mean, you have to have complete media saturation, not this dribs and drabs stuff.


Anyway, yeah it's interesting alright. Doomsday senarios usually are.
Though it seems every single generation previous to ours has believed they were living in the end of days, we're just following in their moronic footsteps.
Personally, I'm gonna go guzzle some crude oil while I can.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 15:11   #6
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

this was from a conference done on April 28 2006.
So I dunno what you mean when you say it's been posted elsewhere before.

There are some "facts" in their that I was hoping some people would comment on.
Especially the bits about the state of the worlds energy and the state of the US economy.
This also interested me:
Quote:
Another one of many reasons why the US cannot and will not attack Iran is that—unreported by the major media—the US military has undertaken quiet but significant military build ups in both West Africa and in the Caspian. US military personnel have been dispatched to Nigeria and NATO and the US Navy have begun moving into to the Gulf of Guinea.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 15:50   #7
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Well the Peak Oil issue has been coming to prominance on the net and in the media over the past number of months (if not a few years), it's just that perhaps now people are taking more notice.
And as for the US building up forces, if they release such information within a speech like that, no-one will bother to read it and thus it will go unnoticed.
Best idea ever.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 15:58   #8
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Exclamation Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
this was from a conference done on April 28 2006.
So I dunno what you mean when you say it's been posted elsewhere before.
The article may be new but the 'peak oil' idea (hysteria) has been around for a while. We even had a thread about it a couple of months ago.
Quote:
There are some "facts" in their that I was hoping some people would comment on.
Especially the bits about the state of the worlds energy and the state of the US economy.
It just looks like the usual it's-all-about-oil conspiracy theory stuff to me. :/
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Unread 2 May 2006, 16:01   #9
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Exclamation Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Who quite honestly cares?
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Unread 2 May 2006, 16:05   #10
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

well, the previous thread was by s|k and involved KoeN saying "I know about this", Dante making a decent point and that's all.

I was hoping we could actually discuss the details a little... If it's easily debunked then I'd be interested to read a serious reply about it.

As it goes, the writer in that link talks about everyone being in denial about it which does seem to be the case.

Preparing for the collapse of the US economy could definately be worth talking about (or about whether it will/won't happen).

I found the article quite compelling though, and although I'm not "alarmed" as such, I'm interested to see how accurate it is.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 16:09   #11
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Preparing for the collapse of the US economy could definately be worth talking about (or about whether it will/won't happen).
It won't.
At least not a serious collapse.

Feel free to show me this post if I am to be proved wrong.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 16:15   #12
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Well you're talking about very long-term economic predictions, which are inherently unreliable. Will it damage the American economy? Yeah sure, especially if they don't start switching over to alternative fuel sources in time. Will it collapse though? Well, what do you mean by collapse? We probably won't resort to cannibalism that quickly or anything. I'm sure if we're all complete and utter raving lunatics about the matter and try to heat our homes with oil which doesn't exist it won't help. Something like the top-heavy social welfare system is probably similar. If we do ****ing nothing it could really **** us up further down the line and people are desperately trying to ignore it right now. However eventually they won't be able to due to things like this making it highly visible and important to address from a political standpoint.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 16:24   #13
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

I read it, was reasonably interested. It's stuff we have all heard before (not specifically, but you know what I mean I hope) and I still think there should be more people at the top of the political ladder addressing the problems. Stuff like this is only going to help that.

On a more personal note, I want to buy gold now
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Unread 2 May 2006, 16:26   #14
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

how long-term are you thinking then?

The guy in the article is arguing that an economic collapse will be very apparent by this summer.

It was interesting that a lot of the US closed down on monday when the illegal immigrants went on strike.
If a large amount of the country can no longer afford to drive to work, what would happen then? 3 day weeks? I can see some significant knock-on effects.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 16:38   #15
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

I don't see oil causing that large a problem in the short-term (i.e. within the next two years). Any recession that was caused would be "self-correcting" after a whole bunch of people suffer in the short term. Any contraction in the American economy would hit Chinese exports (which in turn would hit Asian growth and raw material markets generally) which in turn would probably lower oil prices.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 17:10   #16
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I don't see oil causing that large a problem in the short-term (i.e. within the next two years). Any recession that was caused would be "self-correcting" after a whole bunch of people suffer in the short term. Any contraction in the American economy would hit Chinese exports (which in turn would hit Asian growth and raw material markets generally) which in turn would probably lower oil prices.
Crikey Dante, you are almost starting to sound like Adam Smith there, with a touch of Keynes!
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Unread 2 May 2006, 17:20   #17
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stew
Crikey Dante, you are almost starting to sound like Adam Smith there, with a touch of Keynes!
Well Keynes is right ; in the long run, we are all dead. If you zoom out enough then humanity is on a constant upward ascent (in terms of power output, collective wealth, population or whatever). Even things like WW2 are "minor blips" in the grand scheme of things.

The issue here is whether (a) it is sustainable, given our resource and environment limitations and (b) even if it is, is it right that the costs of these "blips" are felt disproportionately by some and the rewards enjoyed by others.

The problem with the "sky is falling" type crisis fantasies (which the left is fond of) is that when capitalism doesn't collapse this year (which some have been predicting now for decades) people think "Phew, things must be OK." when they are patently not. Millions of people are starving, millions more don't have access to clean water, decent medicene, etc, etc. And Jesus Christ, this is before the downturn!
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Unread 2 May 2006, 17:45   #18
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Exclamation Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Dante posted that? Goodness me, I thought he was quoting Turgot or something! This fancy 18th century talk from Mr D could cause a good deal of confusion!
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Unread 2 May 2006, 17:53   #19
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepflow
On a more personal note, I want to buy gold now
had you watched the documentary 'waterworld', you would know that the smart people are buying up dirt.

anyway, in general i agree with dante, though i'd argue the right has almost as many masturbatory end-times fantasies as the left.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 17:54   #20
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Also, Adam Smith talked a reasonable amount of sense, as Chomsky has been at pains to point out many times.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 18:02   #21
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
Also, Adam Smith talked a reasonable amount of sense
You're worrying me now Dante.


Quote:
as Chomsky has been at pains to point out many times.
Phew! That's better.
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Unread 2 May 2006, 19:12   #22
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
I don't see oil causing that large a problem in the short-term (i.e. within the next two years). Any recession that was caused would be "self-correcting" after a whole bunch of people suffer in the short term.
it depends what you mean by "that large a problem", as I see "a whole bunch of people" suffering to be quite a big problem.

Especially if it requires distractions to stop people thinking about it. Those distractions being "omg war on <insert word here>".
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Unread 2 May 2006, 22:52   #23
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

it's interesting

but short sighted and nieve
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Unread 2 May 2006, 22:55   #24
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
The problem with the "sky is falling" type crisis fantasies (which the left is fond of) is that when capitalism doesn't collapse this year (which some have been predicting now for decades)
(millenia)
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Unread 2 May 2006, 23:26   #25
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Sooner or later, someone predicting the end of the world will be correct. However, in my case they will have to hurry up things a bit as i won't be around for as long as the rest of you. Hahahahahahahaha!
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Unread 3 May 2006, 13:31   #26
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

i don't think he was predicting the end of the world.
more the end of the world as we know it.
Oh and the end of the US

Quote:
Denial

Although this is a bit off the subject of Soviet collapse and what it may teach us about our own, I can't resist saying a few words about denial, for it is such an interesting subject. I also hope that it will help some of you to go beyond denial, this being a helpful step towards understanding what I am going to say here.

Now that a lot of the predictions are coming true more or less on schedule, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the steady climb of energy prices and the dire warnings from energy experts of every stripe, outright denial is being gradually replaced with subtler forms of denial, which center around avoiding any serious, down-to-earth discussion of the likely actual consequences of peak oil, and of the ways one might cope with them.

Instead, there is much discussion of policy: what "we" should do. The "we" in question is presumably some embodiment of the great American Can-Do Spirit: a brilliantly organized consortium of government agencies, leading universities and research centers, and major corporations, all working together toward the goal of providing plentiful, clean, environmentally safe energy, to fuel another century of economic expansion. Welcome to the sideshow at the end of the universe!

One often hears that "We could get this done, if only we wanted to." Most often one hears this from non-specialists, sometimes from economists, and hardly ever from scientists or engineers. A few back-of-the-envelope calculations are generally enough to suggest otherwise, but here logic runs up against faith in the Goddess of Technology: that she will provide. On her altar are assembled various ritualistic objects used to summon the Can-Do Spirit: a photovoltaic cell, a fuel cell, a vial of ethanol, and a vial of bio-diesel. Off to the side of the altar is a Pandora's box packed with coal, tar sand, oceanic hydrates, and plutonium: if the Goddess gets angry, it's curtains for life on Earth.

But let us look beyond mere faith, and focus on something slightly more rational instead. This "we," this highly organized, high-powered problem-solving entity, is quickly running out of energy, and once it does, it will not be so high-powered any more. I would like to humbly suggest that any long-term plan it attempts to undertake is doomed, simply because crisis conditions will make long-term planning, along with large, ambitious projects, impossible. Thus, I would suggest against waiting around for some miracle device to put under the hood of every SUV and in the basement of every McMansion, so that all can live happily ever after in this suburban dream, which is looking more and more like a nightmare in any case.

The next circle of denial revolves around what must inevitably come to pass if the Goddess of Technology were to fail us: a series of wars over ever more scarce resources. Paul Roberts, who is very well informed on the subject of peak oil, has this to say: "what desperate states have always done when resources turn scarce… [is] fight for them." [ MotherJones.com, 11/12 2004] Let us not argue that this has never happened, but did it ever amount to anything more than a futile gesture of desperation? Wars take resources, and, when resources are already scarce, fighting wars over resources becomes a lethal exercise in futility. Those with more resources would be expected to win. I am not arguing that wars over resources will not occur. I am suggesting that they will be futile, and that victory in these conflicts will be barely distinguishable from defeat. I would also like to suggest that these conflicts would be self-limiting: modern warfare uses up prodigious amounts of energy, and if the conflicts are over oil and gas installations, then they will get blown up, as has happened repeatedly in Iraq. This will result in less energy being available and, consequently, less warfare.

Take, for example, the last two US involvements in Iraq. In each case, as a result of US actions, Iraqi oil production decreased. It now appears that the whole strategy is a failure. Supporting Saddam, then fighting Saddam, then imposing sanctions on Saddam, then finally overthrowing him, has left Iraqi oil fields so badly damaged that the "ultimate recoverable" estimate for Iraqi oil is now down to 10-12% of what was once thought to be underground (according to the New York Times).

Some people are even suggesting a war over resources with a nuclear endgame. On this point, I am optimistic. As Robert McNamara once thought, nuclear weapons are too difficult to use. And although he has done a great deal of work to make them easier to use, with the introduction of small, tactical, battlefield nukes and the like, and despite recently renewed interest in nuclear "bunker busters," they still make a bit of a mess, and are hard to work into any sort of a sensible strategy that would reliably lead to an increased supply of energy. Noting that conventional weapons have not been effective in this area, it is unclear why nuclear weapons would produce better results.

But these are all details; the point I really want to make is that proposing resource wars, even as a worst-case scenario, is still a form of denial. The implicit assumption is this: if all else fails, we will go to war; we will win; the oil will flow again, and we will be back to business as usual in no time. Again, I would suggest against waiting around for the success of a global police action to redirect the lion's share of the dwindling world oil supplies toward the United States.

Outside this last circle of denial lies a vast wilderness called the Collapse of Western Civilization, roamed by the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, or so some people will have you believe. Here we find not denial but escapism: a hankering for a grand finale, a heroic final chapter. Civilizations do collapse – this is one of the best-known facts about them – but as anyone who has read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire will tell you, the process can take many centuries.

What tends to collapse rather suddenly is the economy. Economies, too, are known to collapse, and do so with far greater regularity than civilizations. An economy does not collapse into a black hole from which no light can escape. Instead, something else happens: society begins to spontaneously reconfigure itself, establish new relationships, and evolve new rules, in order to find a point of equilibrium at a lower rate of resource expenditure.

Note that the exercise carries a high human cost: without an economy, many people suddenly find themselves as helpless as newborn babes. Many of them die, sooner than they would otherwise: some would call this a "die-off." There is a part of the population that is most vulnerable: the young, the old, and the infirm; the foolish and the suicidal. There is also another part of the population that can survive indefinitely on insects and tree bark. Most people fall somewhere in between.

Economic collapse gives rise to new, smaller and poorer economies. That pattern has been repeated many times, so we can reason inductively about similarities and differences between a collapse that has already occurred and one that is about to occur. Unlike astrophysicists, who can confidently predict whether a given star will collapse into a neutron star or a black hole based on measurements and calculations, we have to work with general observations and anecdotal evidence. However, I hope that my thought experiment will allow me to guess correctly at the general shape of the new economy, and arrive at survival strategies that may be of use to individuals and small communities.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 14:13   #27
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
i don't think he was predicting the end of the world.
more the end of the world as we know it.
Oh and the end of the US
'the end of the US as we know it' has occurred perhaps half a dozen or a score of times, depending on how you count. the belief that the US will not maintain an unsustainable course forever is simply tautological.

perhaps more relevant, while in the catastrophic worst-case scenario the largest declines in standard of living probably will be in the most developed countries, the most significant declines will be the small ones that take place in subsistence-level communities throughout the third world.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 14:30   #28
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

i'm not sure how many people living in the third world rely on energy and a national economy in order to live.

the second link in the original post (followed by the second and third parts found on the same website) is a fascinating breakdown of the Soviet collapse and what could happen in an American one.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 14:34   #29
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Exclamation Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
i'm not sure how many people living in the third world rely on energy and a national economy in order to live.
So we have a lifetime of labour-intensive wheat farming to look forward to? Nice.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 14:44   #30
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
i'm not sure how many people living in the third world rely on energy and a national economy in order to live.
You don't need to rely on oil to be affected by the political instability a lack of it could have. If the Chinese / Indian economies completely collapsed (or their governments did) then very poor peasants would probably be hit pretty badly as well as the middle class of those countries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MM
So we have a lifetime of labour-intensive wheat farming to look forward to? Nice.
Yeah. This is why in answer to your earlier post, lots of people care.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 14:49   #31
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

i would think that very poor peasants who grow their own food and sell some of it on would probably be in the the position to lose the least out of political instability.

If they have their own currency, or no currency at all, no access to services provided by the government and aren't going to be caught up in violence, then I don't see how they will be affected.

If anything, as they already have no dependance on the economy, they will gain out of it as they will not have to adapt to any change.

And anyway, just because their is an economic collapse in one part of the world doesn't necessarily mean things will be as bad everywhere else.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 14:59   #32
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

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Originally Posted by Ste
i would think that very poor peasants who grow their own food and sell some of it on would probably be in the the position to lose the least out of political instability.

If they have their own currency, or no currency at all, no access to services provided by the government and aren't going to be caught up in violence, then I don't see how they will be affected.

If anything, as they already have no dependance on the economy, they will gain out of it as they will not have to adapt to any change.

And anyway, just because their is an economic collapse in one part of the world doesn't necessarily mean things will be as bad everywhere else.
Don't be thick.

1) A lot of the poorest people in the third world work on cash crop plantations. The market for these is the first world. They can't transfer quickly. They're already half-starving now.

2) They're not all peasants living in mud huts. The complete break-down of heating supplies, the inevitable failure of any sort of sewerage or waterworks system would lead to catastrophic consequences in the developing world.

There's more but I'm in work and supposed to be drinking guinness.

Edit: God's sake just look at the population densities, do you think they got there living on ****ing straw?
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:13   #33
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Ste, do you see me commenting on engineering?
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:18   #34
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

so you're saying that the poorest people on the world are only making a living on supplying goods to the first world?

What percentage of the world are already living without running water or a sewerage system?
What percentage of the world live without electricity or gas?

A massive amount.

so saying a failure of sewerage would have catastrophic circumstances is stupid.

there is a section in one of the "post-soviet lessons" articles about how people cope without water, electricity etc etc.

Quote:
Warning: what I am about to say may be somewhat unpleasant, but I'd like to get the issue out of the way. Most of the technological progress of the 20th century resulted in a higher level of physical comfort. Yes, that's why we caused global warming, a hole in the ozone layer, and a mass extinction of plants, fish, birds, and mammals: to be somewhat more comfortable for a little while.

We all expect heating and air-conditioning, hot and cold water, reliable electricity, personal transportation, paved roads, illuminated streets and parking lots, maybe even high-speed Internet. Well, what if you had to give up all that? Or, rather, what will you do when you have to give up all that?

Most of our ancestors put up with a level of physical discomfort we would find appalling: no running hot water, an outhouse instead of a flush toilet, no central heat, and one's own two feet, or a horse, as the main means for getting around. And still they managed to produce a civilization and a culture that we can just barely manage to emulate and preserve.

It doesn't take a crisis to make public utilities go on the blink, but a crisis certainly helps. Any crisis will do: economic, financial, or even political. Consider the governor of Primorye, a region on the far side of Siberia, who simply stole all the money that was supposed to buy coal for the winter. Primorye froze. With winter temperatures around 40 below, it's a wonder there's anyone still living there. It's a testament to human perseverance. As the economic situation degenerates, events seem to unfold in a certain sequence, regardless of locale. They always seem to lead to the same result: unsanitary conditions. But an energy crisis seems to me by far the most efficacious way of depriving one of one's treasured utility services.

First, electricity begins to wink in and out. Eventually, this settles into a rhythm. Countries such as Georgia, Bulgaria and Romania, as well as some peripheral regions of Russia, have had to put up with a few hours of electricity a day, sometimes for several years. North Korea is perhaps the best Soviet pupil we have, surviving without much electricity for years. Lights flicker on as the sun begins to set. The generators struggle on for a few hours, powering light bulbs, television sets, and radios. When it's time for bed, the lights wink out once again.

Second in line is heat. Every year, it comes on later and goes off sooner. People watch television or listen to the radio, when there's electricity, or just sit, under piles of blankets. Sharing bodily warmth has been a favored survival technique among humans through the ice ages. People get used to having less heat, and eventually stop complaining. Even in these relatively prosperous times, there are apartment blocks in St. Petersburg that are heated every other day, even during the coldest parts of winter. Thick sweaters and down comforters are used in place of the missing buckets of coal.

Third in line is hot water: the shower runs cold. Unless you've been deprived of a cold shower, you won't be able to appreciate it for the luxury that it affords. In case you are curious, it's a quick shower. Get wet, lather up, rinse off, towel off, dress, and shiver, under several layers of blankets, and let's not forget shared bodily warmth. A less radical approach is to wash standing in a bucket of warm water — heated up on the stove. Get wet, lather, rinse. And don't forget to shiver.

Next, water pressure drops off altogether. People learn to wash with even less water. There is a lot of running around with buckets and plastic jugs. The worst part of this is not the lack of running water; it is that the toilets won't flush. If the population is enlightened and disciplined, it will realize what it must do: collect their excretions in buckets and hand-carry them to a sewer inlet. The super-enlightened build outhouses and put together composting toilets, and use the proceeds to fertilize their kitchen gardens.

Under this combined set of circumstances, there are three causes of mortality to avoid. The first is simply avoiding freezing to death. It takes some preparation to be able to go camping in wintertime. But this is by far the easiest problem. The next is avoiding humans' worst companions through the ages: bedbugs, fleas, and lice. These never fail to make their appearance wherever unwashed people huddle together, and spread diseases such as typhoid, which have claimed millions of lives. A hot bath and a complete change of clothes can be a lifesaver. The hair-free look becomes fashionable. Baking the clothes in an oven kills the lice and their eggs. The last is avoiding cholera and other diseases spread through feces by boiling all drinking water.

It seems safe to assume that the creature comforts to which we are accustomed are going to be few and far between. But if we are willing to withstand the little indignities of reading by candlelight, bundling up throughout the cold months, running around with buckets of water, shivering while standing in a bucket of tepid water, and carrying our poop out in a bucket, then none of this is enough to stop us from maintaining a level of civilization worthy of our ancestors, who probably had it worse than we ever will. They were either depressed or cheerful about it, in keeping with their personal disposition and national character, but apparently they survived, or you wouldn't be reading this.
And anyway, the chinese/indian/whatever economies are not as reliant on oil as the American one.
In case you never read the links I posted and simply jumped in to make a comment (as you normally do) that is what the thread is mainly about.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:22   #35
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stew
Ste, do you see me commenting on engineering?
look, I'll freely admit I'm not an economist so ****ing educate me where I'm going wrong rather than say "you're wrong".
I do however have a grasp of what goes on in the world especially in the environmental field.
Although I'm not sure how accounting would help the third world poor.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:22   #36
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

IT IS A CATASTROPHE. THERE ARE MILLIONS OF THEM DYING OF STUPID ****ING DISEASE LIKE DIARHOEA RIGHT NOW. IF SEWERAGE SYSTEMS BREAK DOWN EVEN MORE OF THEM WILL DIE. WHAT PART OF THIS DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND NOW I HAVE RESORTED TO YELLING ON THE INTERNET?

PS When you've read the book you don't need to read the review sport.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:25   #37
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Are you saying that someone is going to steal their bucket and fill in their trench if America's economy breaks down?

The poorest people in the world often don't even have a bucket
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:30   #38
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Are you saying that someone is going to steal their bucket and fill in their trench if America's economy breaks down?

The poorest people in the world often don't even have a bucket
The very poorest people in the world rely on aid. Really don't see much of that flying around if the first world collapses, do you?
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:33   #39
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Are you saying that someone is going to steal their bucket and fill in their trench if America's economy breaks down?
In some cases, yeah. There's some argument that global economic instabilty contributed to the Rwanda massacres for instance.
Quote:
The poorest people in the world often don't even have a bucket
Well, this depends what you're talking about here. The third world is an increasingly useless term. Is India in the same boat as Sub-Saharan Africa? Well, bits of it are, but not all of it. Ditto China. Yes, there are probably people who are so isolated and so undeveloped they'll be immune to any general collapse. But they're in the minority at this point in history. See Jonny's points about aid and cash crops etc. The last global war affected Africa, if there was one (which is hopefully unlikely) now it would definitely again.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:35   #40
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Exclamation Re: [very long]Peak Oil

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Yeah. This is why in answer to your earlier post, lots of people care.
Oh well. At least it'll get me into shape.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:37   #41
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

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Oh well. At least it'll get me into shape.
That's a bit optimistic for a goth.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:39   #42
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
Although I'm not sure how accounting would help the third world poor.
I can tell them just how poor they are.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:42   #43
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonnyBGood
The very poorest people in the world rely on aid. Really don't see much of that flying around if the first world collapses, do you?
And, as I have been saying all the way through this thread, this isn't about the 1st worlds economy breaking down, it's about America's.

To pre-empt your "america's economy = rest of the world" response why don't you read the damn link
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:43   #44
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

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Originally Posted by Stew
I can tell them just how poor they are.
Shortly before they capture you and turn you into "chicken"?
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:43   #45
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Exclamation Re: [very long]Peak Oil

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Originally Posted by Deepflow
That's a bit optimistic for a goth.
I go up and down. I'll be mulling over suicide in a few minutes.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:50   #46
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

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Originally Posted by Dante Hicks
In some cases, yeah. There's some argument that global economic instabilty contributed to the Rwanda massacres for instance.
Really? Interesting.
Like I quoted earlier there are a number of US moves into western Africa etc...
But anyway, I did say "if they aren't caught up in violence" earlier.

Quote:
Well, this depends what you're talking about here. The third world is an increasingly useless term. Is India in the same boat as Sub-Saharan Africa? Well, bits of it are, but not all of it. Ditto China. Yes, there are probably people who are so isolated and so undeveloped they'll be immune to any general collapse. But they're in the minority at this point in history. See Jonny's points about aid and cash crops etc. The last global war affected Africa, if there was one (which is hopefully unlikely) now it would definitely again.
This is all leading from me replying to acropolis saying "a decline will more significantly affect the poorest people than the people living in developed countries"

As this thread is quite specifically about the US then we need to fill in the gaps as to how the US economy collapse would significantly affect other countries in the world.
But I agree about how the third world term is increasingly useless.
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:50   #47
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
And, as I have been saying all the way through this thread, this isn't about the 1st worlds economy breaking down, it's about America's.

To pre-empt your "america's economy = rest of the world" response why don't you read the damn link
I've never read any remotely sensible economic article which hasn't emphasised the interlocking nature of the global economy for the past twenty years. I will however, read yours this evening. What are the salient points though? If it maintains that the US economy collapses while the rest of the first world economies magically survive as they are right now I'm not exactly going to be best pleased. I really don't see what any of this has to do with my point though. More will die from disease. More will starve. (In the third world that is.)

Okay I'm back from my timewarp and I can tell you the global economy is pretty interconnected dudes!



Edit: Oh shit got back before I left
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Unread 3 May 2006, 15:51   #48
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

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Originally Posted by Ste
As this thread is quite specifically about the US then we need to fill in the gaps as to how the US economy collapse would significantly affect other countries in the world.
Oh, it just didn't mention it like? Well, let's do the time warp and go back to 1929!
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Unread 3 May 2006, 17:32   #49
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
And, as I have been saying all the way through this thread, this isn't about the 1st worlds economy breaking down, it's about America's.

To pre-empt your "america's economy = rest of the world" response why don't you read the damn link
in my opinion, in the event of a 'peak oil catastrophe', america will be in relatively good shape compared to the rest of the first world, due to the high level of available natural resources and the strong agricultural backbone.

i'm sure lots of people on this forum would disagree with me, based on the reasonable argument that the US uses much more energy per capita at present and would in fact be in just as bad (or worse) shape as the rest of the (first) world.

what reasonable people are not arguing is that america would collapse into anarchy and cannabilism and the rest of the first world wouldn't notice any change (outside of perhaps The Simpsons no longer airing new episodes).

if you truly want the focus of this thread to be about what a complete and utter idiot Dmitry Orlov is, then i would be perfectly happy discussing that too.

but if you would like a reality-based discussion of the possibility of major economic collapses based on a peak oil crisis, then we continue...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ste
This is all leading from me replying to acropolis saying "a decline will more significantly affect the poorest people than the people living in developed countries"

As this thread is quite specifically about the US then we need to fill in the gaps as to how the US economy collapse would significantly affect other countries in the world.
i think the issue here is that there is a misimpression that a large chunk of the worlds very poor are subsistence farmers who are simply uninvolved in the world economy; living in the same villages their family has lived in for centuries and letting the world pass them by. while its true that there are such villages, and there are such people, the huge population boom of the last half a millenium passed them by too. i would estimate that of the world's (say) 3 billion very poor people, less than maybe 100 million are uninvolved in the world economy.

that's not to say that those 100 million will get off scot free in the event of such a catastrophe, global weather patterns are changing, and massive tracts of land are becoming inarable every year. thousands of years ago such people might migrate, today they may find their neighbors to be unaccommodating. to where do such people turn today, and to where would they turn after such a collapse? the answers to those are part of my point.

what it is to say is that the other 2.9 billion are already deeply involved in the global economy. manufacturing is an industry that has been largely outsourced to these people; they make my t-shirts and my boxers and my shoes. a lot of other stuff too. many more of them make a living by providing services to those that do that manufacturing. jonny has already pointed out the cases of those very poor living off of foreign aid and those who actually do use oil themselves. again, a huge fraction of these are already living on inarable land.

what happens to them when the foreign aid stops? what happens when the first world stops buying products from them? basically, what happens to someone who earns enough money to keep up no more than a 1500 calorie-a-day diet when he loses his job?
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Unread 3 May 2006, 21:27   #50
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Re: [very long]Peak Oil

Ok, having spent 25minutes reading it, I stick with my original points.

Anyone who starts quoting John Lennon in a macro-economic scare mongering lecture is scraping the barrel!
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