|
29 May 2005, 20:57
|
#1
|
The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
|
This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
8 Roma 38 6 8 5 31 26 5 4 10 24 32 -3 45
9 Livorno 38 9 5 5 28 25 2 7 10 21 35 -11 45
10 Lecce 38 8 8 3 40 30 2 6 11 26 43 -7 44
11 Reggina 38 7 6 6 21 23 3 8 8 15 22 -9 44
12 Cagliari 38 9 9 1 30 17 1 5 13 21 43 -9 44
13 Lazio 38 6 6 7 26 24 5 5 9 22 29 -5 44
14 Siena 38 5 8 6 21 27 4 8 7 23 28 -11 43
15 Chievo 38 8 5 6 20 18 3 5 11 12 31 -17 43
16 Fiorentina 38 7 7 5 29 22 2 8 9 13 28 -8 42
17 Bologna 38 6 7 6 20 17 3 8 8 13 19 -3 42
18 Parma 38 8 9 2 33 25 2 3 14 15 40 -17 42
19 Brescia 38 6 3 10 15 22 5 5 9 22 32 -17 41
That's right folks, only 4 points seperated being relegated and finshing just outside the european places. One off bad calls make a huge amount of difference in these circumstances - and you get a lot of those in italy (oh hey bias towards juve).
|
|
|
29 May 2005, 21:03
|
#2
|
PA Team
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 7,449
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
obviously they're all extremely balanced teams... or something. How can that many teams be so close? surely that's illegal under some international law
getting a bad call would really really suck heh
__________________
r8-10 RaH r10.5-12 MISTU
|
|
|
29 May 2005, 22:21
|
#3
|
NEWSBOT
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: The enby cave!
Posts: 4,872
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
flavius stole the [football] from this thread!
__________________
[20:27:47] <nodrog-aawy> **** i think my housemate just caught me masturbating
[11:25:32] <idimmu> you are a little piggy arent you
[13:17:00] <KaneED> i'm so closet i'm like narnia
__________________
Pretty parks and funky scrap metal things here
|
|
|
29 May 2005, 22:35
|
#4
|
Server Manager
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 549
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
The league is based upon an entire seasons results, so assuming the referees are unbiased*, the luck will balance out across the season. Ok, so you might feel more gutted if you get your bad decision on the last day of the season, but if all the other teams have had theirs already, in a way, it is fair. Ref's decisions tend to even out, though I still get angry when they go against my team.
*I don't particulalrly think the refs in Italy are biased towards Juve really, but if they are, when it doesn't affect Juve they will be unbiased, and pretty much anyone in that section has nothing to do with Juve.
|
|
|
29 May 2005, 23:55
|
#5
|
The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lunar_Lamp
the luck will balance out across the season
|
"Assumptions that have been mathematically proven to be incorrect" called, they want their opinion back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flavius
I wish I had a [football] tag
|
Would you prefer it if I posted a load of nonsense? You don't appear to have any objection to that thread about football not having a "football" tag, and that one could probably have used it more, given it's lack of a descriptive title. Of course, with a title talking about referees, like mine is, it must be a thread about the works of Hunter S Thompson. Or effective hangover cures. Or precise, accurate data on how many dogs have danced the can-can in the last year. Because it can't possibly be talking about some sort of sporting endeavour. Oh no, because of your stupidity you believe me to have wasted moments of your life! Of course, it must be pointed out that you probably spent more time posting in the thread that you did clicking on the link. Oh, and congratulations on using that idiom. Because that's what's going on in another thread, isn't it? And you've adopted that style outside the thread and used it to insult me! Because that's what humour's about, isn't it? Derivation from the expected? Did you think of that yourself? My, you are clever!
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 00:40
|
#6
|
Server Manager
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 549
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
"Assumptions that have been mathematically proven to be incorrect" called, they want their opinion back.
|
Where is this proof? Point me to the paper please
(not supposed to sound obnoxious )
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 10:08
|
#7
|
The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flavius
That thread was made by dace, and we all know Dace > you.
|
He's certainly better at posting contentless threads.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flavius
Secondly, your title has the word "ref", which I did not identify as referee at first sight. You could do some work on the description amigo.
|
That's your fault, not mine!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flavius
Thirdly, what idiom?
|
I wish "x".
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 10:12
|
#8
|
The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lunar_Lamp
Where is this proof? Point me to the paper please)
|
"Why doesn't 3x4 = 16 in base 10? WHERE'S THE PROOF?"
Probability just doesn't work like that. There is no "law of averages".
Unless the referees are making an actual conscious decision to balance things out (which could only really work if referees did this as a body), which is utterly against their code of conduct, then, on a very simple level, the chances for a bad decision to go to either of the teams in a game is equal - 1:1, 50/50. Of course, it isn't equal, but that just goes on to reinforce the point, so it can be safely ignored.
Do I really need to continue? Shouldn't it be obvious that these things do not magically balance?
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 11:30
|
#9
|
Server Manager
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 549
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
So you claim that over 38games you aren't going to get approximately as many bad decisions in your favour as against you?
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 11:33
|
#10
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 226
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
If a ref is bad, there is no reason to expect him to be bad in just half of his matches, and then very good in the other half.
He'll probably be bad in a majority, however slight.
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 11:47
|
#11
|
Server Manager
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 549
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
I would argue though, that the ref may be bad, and make on average, say, 6mistakes per game, whilst a good ref makes 1. However, why would the bad ref favour one team over the other, it is likely that in a wide enough sample those bad decisions will be made equally to either team.
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 15:06
|
#12
|
The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lunar_Lamp
I would argue though, that the ref may be bad, and make on average, say, 6mistakes per game, whilst a good ref makes 1. However, why would the bad ref favour one team over the other, it is likely that in a wide enough sample those bad decisions will be made equally to either team.
|
"6" isn't a very big sample, and given that only ONE mistake can mean being relegated or not...?
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 15:07
|
#13
|
The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nantoz
If a ref is bad, there is no reason to expect him to be bad in just half of his matches, and then very good in the other half.
He'll probably be bad in a majority, however slight.
|
What on earth are you blithering about?
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 15:15
|
#14
|
Banned
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Further to the right
Posts: 19,441
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Bad decisions are just bad decisions. If every potential scenario happened an infinite number of times for every ref then I guess you could say it's likely that it balances out (as every team endures every scenario an infinite number of times). However shit refs are shit and inconsistent so this wouldn't make sense in the short-term. It's like poker, look back at your last fifty hands and you've usually been either lucky or unlucky, in the sense that you haven't gotten a perfectly balanced number of good and bad hands as rated on the poker ladder. Once shit things happen reality doesn't try and balance them out guys.
This thread really goes every which way
__________________
Some might ask what good is life without purpose but I'm anticipating a good lunch.
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 16:11
|
#15
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 226
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
What on earth are you blithering about?
|
blithering 'bout bollocks.
behold my cunning alliteration.
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 16:13
|
#16
|
BlueTuba
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 6,339
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Serie A looks like a fun league
__________________
"Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life."
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 17:29
|
#17
|
Server Manager
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 549
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
"6" isn't a very big sample, and given that only ONE mistake can mean being relegated or not...?
|
My point was that the sample isn't actually 6 though. I was saying that over the course of the entire season you will, on average, get an equal number of decisions for and against you incorrectly.
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 17:36
|
#18
|
PA Team
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 7,449
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Unless someone has bribed the referee
__________________
r8-10 RaH r10.5-12 MISTU
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 21:03
|
#19
|
The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lunar_Lamp
My point was that the sample isn't actually 6 though. I was saying that over the course of the entire season you will, on average, get an equal number of decisions for and against you incorrectly.
|
200 isn't a very large sample either, and 6 game changing incorrect decisions every match seems a bit high.
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 21:53
|
#20
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2000
Posts: 8,476
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
"Why doesn't 3x4 = 16 in base 10? WHERE'S THE PROOF?"
Probability just doesn't work like that. There is no "law of averages".
Unless the referees are making an actual conscious decision to balance things out (which could only really work if referees did this as a body), which is utterly against their code of conduct, then, on a very simple level, the chances for a bad decision to go to either of the teams in a game is equal - 1:1, 50/50. Of course, it isn't equal, but that just goes on to reinforce the point, so it can be safely ignored.
Do I really need to continue? Shouldn't it be obvious that these things do not magically balance?
|
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/LawofLargeNumbers.html
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 22:24
|
#21
|
The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nodrog
|
Not relevent at all, but thanks for playing.
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 22:46
|
#22
|
Made of Twigs
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 5,459
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrL_JaKiri
200 isn't a very large sample either, and 6 game changing incorrect decisions every match seems a bit high.
|
It's typically considered large enough.
It's not massive no, but it is large enough for the central limit theorm to start coming into play.
__________________
If I hadn't seen such riches, I could live with being poor - James
It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am - Muhammad Ali
So **** y'all, all of y'all; if y'all don't like me, blow me! - Dr. Dre
|
|
|
30 May 2005, 23:50
|
#23
|
The Twilight of the Gods
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 23,481
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stew
but it is large enough for the central limit theorm to start coming into play.
|
Start coming into play. ONE bad decision could have meant the difference between 19th and 15th*. Unless you're trying to tell me that the theorem somehow now says that it's impossible for it not to balance out, then what exactly is the point you're trying to make?
*And, as bad decisions have certainly been made, DID make the difference.
|
|
|
31 May 2005, 08:04
|
#24
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,174
|
Re: This just throws all the problems with ref's into sharp relief
Mr_J is right in reality, the rest are right in theory.
__________________
If one person is in delusion, they're called insane.
If many people are in delusion, it's called a religion.
|
|
|
|
All times are GMT +1. The time now is 17:13.
| |