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Unread 4 Mar 2015, 19:43   #1
BloodyButcher
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R61 predictions

So how will the round go? Predictions please!

#1 Ultores
#2 CT/BF
#3 BF/CT
#4 ND
#5 BowS
#6 FL
#7 Rogues
#8 HR
#9 Vikings
#10 P3ng
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Unread 4 Mar 2015, 20:13   #2
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Re: R61 predictions

HR wil be #6
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Unread 4 Mar 2015, 21:14   #3
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Re: R61 predictions

#1 Ultores
#2 CT
#3 ND
#4 Black-Flag ( the wont be a full tag clouds told me)
#5 Bows
#6 HR
#7 Faceless
#8 Rogues ( will have 30 odd players)
#9 P3n
#10 Vik
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Unread 4 Mar 2015, 21:26   #4
BloodyButcher
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Re: R61 predictions

Hahaha, clouds told you that they wont be full tag? Id like to make a prediction that he will be caugth lying again
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 00:26   #5
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Re: R61 predictions

Bf
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 08:53   #6
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Re: R61 predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adapt View Post
#7 Faceless
#8 Rogues ( will have 30 odd players)
#9 P3n
I would be very surprised even in a rebuilding round if p3n have less than 35 to 40 players which would almost certainly put them above rogues (p3n tends to have some top planets when not in competition) and likely above Faceless too.

Surprised BF would have much less than full tag, pretty sure I know a few who are joining em, and they were full last round. Perhaps Clouds meant they will be keeping some out of tag as they have done before?

So for me it would be
1, ultores
2, BF
3, CT
4, ND
5, Rainbows
6, P3nguins
7, Faceless (should beat HR if on 35-40 members)
8, HR
9, Rogues
10, Vikings
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 09:33   #7
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Re: R61 predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
Hahaha, clouds told you that they wont be full tag? Id like to make a prediction that he will be caugth lying again
Didn't you keep saying Rainbows wasn't full tag last round?
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 12:11   #8
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Re: R61 predictions

While it generally upsets my sensibilities and commitment to reality to defend anything B-Butch3r says, RainbowS started the round with around 30 members in tag and had 38 by the time we decided to merge ROCK into it. This does mean that RainbowS was only roughly half a tag until tick 312, and would have probably stayed well below the limit all round without the predictable ROCK implosion.

Edit: this is all entirely irrelevant, because B-Butch3r and Clouds would go at each other over the colour of the sky or the necessity of an oxygenated atmosphere if there was entertainment value in it.
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 12:54   #9
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Re: R61 predictions

I dont know about top 10, but if tag sizes/bp's remain the same, then i predict ult and ct will have to work together if they are to have ambitions at winning the round - unless they can find small tags to work with
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 14:03   #10
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Re: R61 predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypton View Post
I dont know about top 10, but if tag sizes/bp's remain the same, then i predict ult and ct will have to work together if they are to have ambitions at winning the round - unless they can find small tags to work with
So your predicting BF to win?
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 15:29   #11
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Re: R61 predictions

no, ND. BF 2nd
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 16:38   #12
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Re: R61 predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypton View Post
no, ND. BF 2nd
Seems like you are assuming they are a team allready.
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 17:39   #13
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Re: R61 predictions

Well BF dont play for the win and ND are the only other full tag
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 19:35   #14
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Re: R61 predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypton View Post
Well BF dont play for the win and ND are the only other full tag
Dont tell me you are buying into this shit aswell?
If they see a opening for winning, they will go for it, and now they hope everyone has built up enough trust with them to let them run away with the win as Ultores did last round.
"We dont backstab cus they wont backstab us" BS is getting old, its only BF who are stupid enough to belive in this, so i doubt BF will stand a chance anyway
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 21:37   #15
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Re: R61 predictions

To be honest its either going to be Ult once again, or BF. They made it quite clear they will be working together again and one of them will win. So, unless anyone will be strong enough to take them both on (probably with NDs help again if they still have bf influence within it)
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Unread 5 Mar 2015, 22:29   #16
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Re: R61 predictions

Honestly I could careless who actually wins, as long as we have someone willing to challenge Ult and not let them have 700 ticks of not having to worry about anything. However I don't see this happening because there isnt a HC willing to put in the time. So really this thread is pointless. Well played Ult.
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 09:45   #17
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Re: R61 predictions

If BF/ULT nap up then the round is done with. There is no reason for them not to do this BTW and it's not like ult havent hit BF in the past, so there is nothing extra to prove.

I dont want to downplay the ability of BF their defence is excellent but they are not mentioned for their awesome attacks because their attacking is always what leaves them in 2nd/3rd ally ranks at the end of the round. If BF want to go for a win they need to be more attack focused, which may mean they need to look outside of their FR/DE box which seems to be their natural ship strategy.

I think with the uni size as it is and the expectation that there will be 3 or maybe 4 full tags this round I do not see any changes from the way last round played out. If any of the top 4 nap up the round stagnates. It is no coincidence that p3ng isolated inferno and bf during our wins. It is SO easy to nap 2 other alliances and then just bash the contender until they drop from out the ranks.

If it were CT/BF/ULT/ND and ULT want a win it is no problem to get an avoidance with ct, nap ND and smash BF. The only way out for BF is to bring along a cluster of smaller alliances such as p3ng,HR,Bows in the hope that numbers will win it for them. But in these instances you can just defend vs BF, let the smaller alliances take your roids, whilst still roiding down BF and when the war ends go back to these smaller farms for your roid boost.. or just init up!

Last round we were on the other end of that tactic, it works and you can't beat it.
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 14:05   #18
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Re: R61 predictions

The other side of "block half the univers" tactic
If i was running politics for a tag next round i would just go straight for BF at pt24.
Making sure they never will be able to feck up more rounds.
I dont mind seeing Ult winning another round, i would happily let them win if i could fight BF instead.
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 15:13   #19
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Re: R61 predictions

There's no "block half the universe" needed. If there are 4 top allies then you essentially need to focus a war on one of those to win by either:

1 on 1 war as we did with inferno but napping out ult/bf so their only options are the "weaker" tags to form a block.

or

by working with one of the bigger allies as we did on BF when we napped ND and worked with ult to hit them (no nap needed).

The second scenario is what you witnessed last round (BF/ULT hitting P3ng with a nap with ND), the first scenario the round before and the second scenario again the round before that.

The only thing that decides who wins based on the above scenarios is who gets those naps/avoidances in place first. Contrary to agar3s comments in EORC it was not scenario 1 last round, but it was scenario 2. Both valid for a win though. The workings are simple, isolate your competition and be friendly with the rest. As much as this forum whined on about a block against ult last round needing to be formed p3nguins did not have the fire power itself and the other allies helping them were too easy to defend against or too easy to push out the block due to not really needing to be a part of it.

If the universe were bigger or some of the smaller tags merged up to be competing then this dynamic might change, but then again you would just scale it up. You often may see someone like CT left out of the loop and neither side wanting to hit them nor make agreements with them. There is a stand off for as long as possible and often the alliance with the weaker block or losing war will suddenly start hitting the likes of CT for extra score thinking there are easier roids to land. This then forces that side on to the winning block and all hell breaks loose. This happened when we fought BF for number 1 and I discussed with clouds how it was probably at a point both sides were going to make that decision, BF made the decision first and ultimately paid for it. p3nguins did consider it.
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 18:58   #20
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Re: R61 predictions

BB: You're very welcome to hit us from tick 24, I do like salvage. I can but wonder where this hate towards us comes from, but I guess you're just jelly.

Booji: we don't have that many coming our way and a handful of our members are telling they're too busy to play properly etc. so they won't be playing with us.

Willzzz: We do not have any pre-round agreements with anyone and we will not have those either. Ult has been a reliable partner earlier, but that does not mean we'll work with them again. All our politics will be done during the round, so everything is quite open.

Depending a bit on our size at the start, we either play for tag win, gal win and/or planet ranks. ATM it seems we're not going to be full, but that may of course change before the round starts.
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 19:15   #21
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Re: R61 predictions

If you like incs NoXious im sure more alliances would love to give you incs now as you are asking for it.
There is no hate towards you, or anyone, but i do dislike certain attitudes and dishonest behaviours
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 19:58   #22
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Re: R61 predictions

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Originally Posted by NoXiouS View Post
Booji: we don't have that many coming our way and a handful of our members are telling they're too busy to play properly etc. so they won't be playing with us.
Unless it really is a lot leaving the game, in which case it is really sad for the game as a whole, then you are likely to be at the point from which p3n made its round wins; starting the round with around 50 members. From there a few stragglers, recruits from gals, and late starts can usually take an alliance up to the 55+ from which they are realistic contenders. As such I was not doubting that you are currently down a few members, I was doubting that you will end up significantly down on members (unless you take a pounding and lose members during the round ofc).
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 20:00   #23
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Re: R61 predictions

I do like incs, we've been getting plenty every round and they've never really been a problem. More incs = more DC points for me.

You really shouldn't be looking at us if you don't like attitudes and dishonest behaviors. We've been very open, honest, loyal and whatnot, hence I'm having a very hard time figuring out why are you talking so much bs about us and acting like a jackass in general. I'm trying to be polite towards all, but you're really pushing the limits sometimes.

Booji: I believe we're at 40+ atm. Some are playing in other tags, some are not playing at all, but are to return later apparently.
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 20:06   #24
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Re: R61 predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
If i was running politics for a tag next round i would just go straight for BF at pt24.
Making sure they never will be able to feck up more rounds.
I dont mind seeing Ult winning another round, i would happily let them win if i could fight BF instead.


Quote:
Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
If you like incs NoXious im sure more alliances would love to give you incs now as you are asking for it.
There is no hate towards you, or anyone, but i do dislike certain attitudes and dishonest behaviours
You really do amuse me. You state that you would love to hit them etc... then claim there is no hate towards them. And I am sure many people dislike your 'attitude' on these forums every round but I doubt they declare wars on Rainbows because of it.
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 20:30   #25
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Re: R61 predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Willzzz View Post
You really do amuse me. You state that you would love to hit them etc... then claim there is no hate towards them. And I am sure many people dislike your 'attitude' on these forums every round but I doubt they declare wars on Rainbows because of it.
Certainly if they allready have a block set up, and keep on doing what theyve done the past two rounds, id love to hit em.
Other people, not only me have said they are ruining PA, and i to some extent agree, and therefor i belive its in everyone interest to punish em for this behaviour.
If you belive in the BF way of handling politics, perhaps you should join em Willzzzz?
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 20:56   #26
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Re: R61 predictions

I'd love some of those mushrooms you're eating BB. How hard it is to understand that we do NOT do pre-round deals. It's people like you that are ruining PA, holding grudges and not seeing past your own feelings, unable to work with new angles. If you feel we ruin PA by being open, honest and loyal, while asking that yourself from your allies... Damn. You're trying to build tensions towards an alliance, basically attempting to pre-round block towards us, how you can convince yourself that it's a good thing to do, I can only wonder. Take a look in the mirror and see the monster you're trying to create of us.
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 21:03   #27
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Re: R61 predictions

It was Willz saying BF would block with ND/Ult, not me.
Im just saying that this should be punished
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Unread 6 Mar 2015, 21:14   #28
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Re: R61 predictions

#1. Rogues
#2. some nub
#3. some other nub
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Unread 9 Mar 2015, 10:58   #29
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Re: R61 predictions

I'm very excited for this round
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Unread 15 Mar 2015, 19:52   #30
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Re: R61 predictions

#1 BF
#2 Ult
#3 Rogues
#4 Pen
#5 CT
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Unread 16 Mar 2015, 00:03   #31
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Re: R61 predictions

That is a rather odd set of predictions Forest.

BF has already said that they will be understrength, while I am inclined to guess they wont be too far understrength it would likely be enough to make first unlikely. Both Rogues and P3nguins are likely to be between 30 and 40 members so the chances of both beating CT (or indeed ND) who are nearly always full strength seems small.
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Unread 16 Mar 2015, 00:45   #32
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Re: R61 predictions

BF said they will be under strength all the rounds theyve been playing
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Unread 16 Mar 2015, 00:52   #33
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Re: R61 predictions

Playing down expectations and all that. As I said earlier it really should be a good chance for them. But given their history over the last few rounds of being happy with second putting them as first still seems a risky bet!
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Unread 16 Mar 2015, 01:28   #34
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Re: R61 predictions

#1 faceless
#2 bf
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Unread 16 Mar 2015, 07:08   #35
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Re: R61 predictions

I said in another thread that we were somewhere at 40+ members, with the time left before the round, I guess we'll be somewhere close to 50 when it start.
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Unread 18 Mar 2015, 20:13   #36
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Re: R61 predictions

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That is a rather odd set of predictions Forest.

BF has already said that they will be understrength, while I am inclined to guess they wont be too far understrength it would likely be enough to make first unlikely. Both Rogues and P3nguins are likely to be between 30 and 40 members so the chances of both beating CT (or indeed ND) who are nearly always full strength seems small.
BF will be full strength and intel suggests they may well go for the win for a change. They have the ability to win, and I think certain people realise the owe it to their members to try. That said, I am not privy to anything majorly private and only their command will know for sure.

Ult will always be there or there abouts, especially with so many alliances willing to support them.

Pen will be pen and always a threat, I just think the players leaving would make a difference between winning and losing.

CT are gonna be hit by several and early. I have seen nothing to suggest that ND won't continue having issues with CT, even though CT have no idea why ND are so keen on hitting them

And that would leave rogues to sneak in under the radar.

That is just my prediction, I have been right before and I have been wrong before. I guess we wait and see
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Unread 19 Mar 2015, 01:03   #37
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Re: R61 predictions

Are you implying that Booji is spreading lies about BFs size Forest?
He clearly said that they will be "understrength", either he is lying or someone is feeding him with false intel
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Unread 19 Mar 2015, 08:53   #38
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Re: R61 predictions

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Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
Are you implying that Booji is spreading lies about BFs size Forest?
He clearly said that they will be "understrength", either he is lying or someone is feeding him with false intel
Always stirring up shit. Very tiresome.
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Unread 19 Mar 2015, 09:40   #39
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Re: R61 predictions

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Always stirring up shit. Very tiresome.
No, id say Booji is stiring up shit if he is claiming something that might not be true.
Time will tell wether he is right or not
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Unread 19 Mar 2015, 10:42   #40
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Re: R61 predictions

You need to take into account that the number we gave was correct at the time. Whether that number has changed since then is something we'll find out.
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Unread 19 Mar 2015, 10:51   #41
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Re: R61 predictions

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No, id say Booji is stiring up shit if he is claiming something that might not be true.
Time will tell wether he is right or not
Eh wtf: booji is not, never has been, anything to do with BF, and he said he expected them near full:
He simply accepted their protestations that they would be under strength. While taking a pinch of salt.

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Surprised BF would have much less than full tag, pretty sure I know a few who are joining em, and they were full last round. Perhaps Clouds meant they will be keeping some out of tag as they have done before?
but then

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clouds View Post
You need to take into account that the number we gave was correct at the time. Whether that number has changed since then is something we'll find out.
that sounds like code for 'we are now pretty close to full strength regardless of any prior comments' to me
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Unread 19 Mar 2015, 11:23   #42
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Re: R61 predictions

It's not code for anything, it's more that I am not at liberty to comment. Feel free to make your own assumptions, though.
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Unread 19 Mar 2015, 21:07   #43
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Re: R61 predictions

oh booji, that trouble maker.
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Unread 19 Mar 2015, 22:40   #44
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Re: R61 predictions

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Are you implying that Booji is spreading lies about BFs size Forest?
He clearly said that they will be "understrength", either he is lying or someone is feeding him with false intel
I am not implying anything.

I looked at the information that I know as fact about the alliances that are playing, and made a prediction based on that.

I never take notice of politics on forums, most people don't lie, they just don't know what is going on and guess.
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Unread 19 Mar 2015, 22:58   #45
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Re: R61 predictions

I never claimed to have any knowledge of BF at all. My guesses on BF was simply being based upon past experience as I mentioned. BF may or may not be at full strength but so far the rounds where they have been they have not yet been first. So with the combination of BF saying they are understrength and that history it seems quite a gamble putting them first. I personally hope they are up to strength as it may make the politics of the round more interesting (unless they decide to have a round long nap with one of the other alliances that is at full strength).

On p3n I have a little knowledge and Rogues a lot and secondly my suggesting that you have their rankings wrong was based upon the logic that the scores work on. Simply put you will almost never see a 30 man alliance beat a 50+ alliance. Nobody seems to believe that CT will be below 50 so I cant see how anyone thinks rogues on just over 30, or p3n who will also probably have rather less than 50, will beat em.
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Unread 20 Mar 2015, 00:05   #46
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Re: R61 predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by booji View Post
I never claimed to have any knowledge of BF at all. My guesses on BF was simply being based upon past experience as I mentioned. BF may or may not be at full strength but so far the rounds where they have been they have not yet been first. So with the combination of BF saying they are understrength and that history it seems quite a gamble putting them first. I personally hope they are up to strength as it may make the politics of the round more interesting (unless they decide to have a round long nap with one of the other alliances that is at full strength).

On p3n I have a little knowledge and Rogues a lot and secondly my suggesting that you have their rankings wrong was based upon the logic that the scores work on. Simply put you will almost never see a 30 man alliance beat a 50+ alliance. Nobody seems to believe that CT will be below 50 so I cant see how anyone thinks rogues on just over 30, or p3n who will also probably have rather less than 50, will beat em.
I thought Clouds had told your fellow HC they would be understrength?
Looking at the past, 1up, eXi, Ultores, Asc have all managed to win with numbers far below the maximum limit.
Im sure it is possibole for this to happend again, if politics is bad enough
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Unread 20 Mar 2015, 00:35   #47
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Re: R61 predictions

If there is any alliance today to compare to those titans of the past surely it is Ult and not BF and certainly not little rogues. P3n having gone back to an excellent core might have a very good average.

However that does not really matter unless the alliances with 55-60 members are really nubbing it. Yes occasionally alliances that are understrength win but they rarely have much below the counted score limit. Of course when 50 is counting in a tag limit anyone with approximately 45 + members has a chance but the smaller you get below that the less likely. 30 is practically impossible. Since alliance limit changed to 60 with 50 counting only faceless has won with under 50 (49 members). Prior to that the tag limit was for 10 rounds 80 but counted only at 50 so all alliances with about 50+ have the potential to be in contention. During this time ult won once on the very bottom of the counted limit with 50 members in r43. eXi looks to have been the only alliance to really manage what BB is talking about managing to win with 58 members in r23 and 61 in r19 when the limits look to have been tag 80, counted 70. Otherwise yes Asc in round 16 look to have done it too though I cant find mention of tag/counted score limits for earlier than round 19 in the changes page.

Anyhow it is not at all common. I dont think any of today's alliances are eXi unfortunately.

One thing I would note on a somewhat different topic is that those arguing for smaller tags could potentially also demand making the game more competitive by pulling counted score down to 40 or even lower allowing small elite alliances to have a good chance of winning.
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Unread 20 Mar 2015, 11:10   #48
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Re: R61 predictions

Obviously all the alliances back then had active players.
Im sure ult could do it again with politics like last round
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Unread 21 Mar 2015, 15:12   #49
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Re: R61 predictions

Seems like Adapts claim that BF would be understrengthened is wrong.
Looking at the race strats i think CT or BF will be fighting it out for #1, seeing alliances like BowS has been ending up in fights with BF in the past, id say its all up for grabs for CT
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Unread 21 Mar 2015, 15:32   #50
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Re: R61 predictions

From the current snapshot you would have to say that BF, CT and Ult are the only three serious contenders. Faceless might get into the 50 counted score zone, so if it is a fierce war between the 3 big ones could come up from behind. But otherwise the bets have to be on the big 3.

BF might have been happy to be involved in fights with alliances like rainbows when they were aiming for second I would imagine they would be more focused if they decide to go for number 1 - or as BB says if they are not then they wont be the ones winning it.
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