granted I really haven't been around much lately and don't really know the political scape.. but those lists just don't jive with history...
Ely's never been able to stand up to anyone succesfully.. Rah (while I love you guys to bits) has never been a top performer and imo never will. They're talented and fun but not a 'winning alliance' imo. Not sure the people in charge neccessarily want that either. Dragons is completely untested as a 'real alliance'. Don't get me started on ToT.. There's just too much to go through w/ all that :-P
I also think you lot underestimate a few of the alliances you put in the lower 5.
Of course all this conjecture is just based on past experience... ah well
Guess I'll throw in my uninformed list so you lot can tear it up too..
1)eclipse
2)oly
3)vision
4)Rah
5)Dragons
6)Ely
7)ToT
8)NoS
9)Pack
10)ND