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Unread 22 Apr 2017, 04:07   #254
[B5]Londo
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Re: R71 Prediction, drama, and fun thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BloodyButcher View Post
But you are on Ults side? Not because anyone hit you, but because thats what you wanted all along.
eh? now? you are taking the counterfactual too far if you are deciding that we never fought ult - or indeed expect we wont again, we know full well that we are doomed come pt900.

If - in the counterfactual - bows and app had hit us at pt350 (advantix keeps saying pre-pt 300, but the relevant raids actually landed pt 351-4 and 376-8) then we had theoretically hit back, we would have been hitting back because we were hit by them, not because we decided to be with ult 'all along' because the 'all along' scenario is what actually happened in the real world, that is that undisturbed by this theoretical attack and with (ultimately false) assurances that our stupid involvement with norse would be forgiven, we begun to hit ult pt399.

[edit]
Im not going to go along with booji's suggestion that fighting norse was good politics, its potential upsides were always vastly outweighed by the downsides. Even at the time the HC knew this was likely to be a long term dispute rather than temporary entanglement - given the long standing dislike, and the high chance of norse successfully fleetcatching as they did, due to ship build. This being true it was just adding an extra enemy, in order to delay an inevitable fight two or three days. Launching a full p-target just because they were mouthy in pms after hitting them with 5 in the pt 351 raid was downright stupid, had we waited for them to hit us as they threatened, we would have been the aggrieved party and had a far more legitimate reason to postpone involvement in the big fight, without looking so cynical. Doing it the other way simply made it look like we were looking for a fight as a dodge, to escape involvement in the bigger war - which then failed.
So I'm actually with Advantix - i disagree that hitting 5 out of 16 was a ptarget looking for a fight - but launching the full ptarget lt 376 certainly was starting a war as we were not yet sure norse would hit us. Given how norse operates they would have likely hit in the morning at whoever hit them that night which need not have been us.
There was by this point little chance of successfully remaining uninvolved, either we would hit ult or BB would have hit us and we would have fought bows/app at the same point regardless of the norse fight. I admit that the impossibility of staying uninvolved is a lot clearer with hindsight, with this argument with BB showing just how stupidly dead set on shooting themselves in the foot bows and app were, when at the time this could have been dismissed as not going to happen because it was irrational.
Nevertheless, that a fight with norse ever looked like a good idea is just a measure of the HCs desperation not to have to pick a side, even though in your hearts you knew it was impossible by this point, with us firmly in second.

It has been maintained all through this that fighting norse didnt matter, we could handle it, but there can surely be no doubt that the extra 40+ incs they gave us daily while fighting ult added to the pressure on us. Without that pressure perhaps we would have been more willing to fight on despite bows and app's reluctance to fight consistently.
Who knows, norse may have been the straw that broke the camels back.
Or of course they may have attacked us anyway because fighting other people we were vulnerable, but we will never know that.
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Last edited by [B5]Londo; 22 Apr 2017 at 05:12.
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