[economics]the state of the us-economy
If there is anyone around who cares, I 'stumbled upon' this 'rant'
Surely it looks a bit overdramatic, but in the basics it is what ive been thinking for a few years now. Is the world going to end or will China be able to take over when the us-economy collapses in itself? |
Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy
i hope the world ends
:) |
Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy
Tip: Look at the saving rates in the USA (and the rest of the anglo-saxon world for that matter). Then look at who is buying up US federal bonds.
China's BNP has been growing with about 9% for the last 20 years. Estimates say it will continue to do so for several years yet. |
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Yes as time goes by both of their economies will become even more dependant on energy resources, but they are also investing a lot of resouces into alternative sources, perhaps more so than many western countries should be. |
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If you then also look at the trade deficit with Asia, you can get really scared about the whole situation. Basicly the US buys cheap goods from Asia (especially China) with dollars it borrows from China. The US gets free goods and free money, the Chinese get nothing. While this may look like a good thing for the US, everyone can see that this can't be a stable long term situation. What I'm wondering about right now is what will happen when the US-consumers stop spending. China would loose its most important market and I'm not really sure it can compensate for that with domestic demand or shipping their stuff toe Europe / Japan, especially if you consider another article I read a while ago which stated that a large part of the recent economical recovery in Germany and Japan is actually based on strong chinese demand for capital goods from these countries. |
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Yes, the US has a rather poor social security system, but that's their problem and it's hardly anything new. If you want, try to talk to your average redneck about how public healthcare is a good idea or why you would expect any decent society to help those people who can't help themselves instead of letting them become homeless or take three jobs for the minimum wage. I promise you, you wont get very far. I know all that, but it's not the issue here. |
Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy
America isn't going to go broke. We have always had our fair share of poor people and we always will, though what constitutes poverty has changed over the years.
The American economy is unlikely to collapse anytime in the near future. However, the Chinese economy is probably the economy of the future, overtaking and surpassing the rest of the world in the medium future. Not unlike the American economy surpassing the British economy. it didn't mean that the British economy collapsed. |
Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy
I think it's sad that the Federal Reserve (and its counterparts in other countries) are allowed to exist outside government control. Inflation and the "business cycle" are just euphemisms for printing too much money, then contracting it so you and your rich friends can get richer buying up property and stock for pennies on the dollar. They have no loyalty to their respective countries, only to the almighty dollar, pound, euro, etc.
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Yes, the money is elsewhere, it's at the chinese central bank and not doing much really, besides beeing lended again to americans who then buy more chinese stuff. Quote:
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Now, for the Chinese. Right now they have some 800 billion Dollars invested in US-assets. What could they possibly do with that? They can't cash it in, because who is going to want all that money? They cant buy american goods with it, because the Us simply doesnt produce that many goods any more. On the other hand they have large production capacities, which are used to produce stuff for american consumers. What are they goign to do with them if the US-demand stops? They cant just sell them on the domestic market, because the average chinese guy just isnt rich enough just yet to buy all that crap. |
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http://www.propagandamatrix.com/mult..._Part1_all.wmv http://www.propagandamatrix.com/mult...e2_128KBps.wmv |
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Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy
One of the biggest problems the west (especially the US) faces is when brains from places like India and China and other Asian countries decide that they have similar or better prospects working in their home countries.
There is no imaginable way countries in the west can hope to compete with the hundreds of thousands of graduates that countries like China and India churn out each year, whether they are better educated or not. One of the best ways to combat numbers is with innovation and ability. However again especially in the case of the US much of the innovation and ability that already exists comes from the foreign brains that are imported (due to wages and/or the fact that the educated/wealthy in these countries would rather be in the US/EU), rather than from their own locally brewed population. I believe that people underestimate this problem. Slowly we are seeing a growth in R&D in these Asian giants and this is going to hit the west where it hurts. |
Re: [economics]the state of the us-economy
Although I didnt read all the posts in this thread, looking at the article I have to say something. GDP growth have become like a panacea for every economy.Personaly I dont believe GDP continous growth is feasible for any national economy or the world economy. You cant grow all the time, people can produce to a certain level, even if you aid them with new technological tools there are limits, like resources, working hours etc. So prepare to see GDP decline, more important is the increase of the quality of life of the population than the index of the stock markets.
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