Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

This thread has been influenced by the news China has blow up one of its satellites by sending a ballistic missile into space and this article.

At the moment most international events relate directly to America's ambitions. But as Will Hutton pointed out China spend more on their military than the UK, France and Germany combined, so surely one day we'll all be riding (or resisting) Chinese foreign policy? It's not like they will be a benign superpower (if there is such a thing). During Mao's reign, when they were still an undeveloped nation, they invaded Tibet and then went for India - where they found they could go no further.

I probably agree with Hutton. I think they will invade Taiwan, which is hugely worrying for the West. It's not like Taiwan is a undeveloped nation with a small military like Tibet. Taiwan is the equivalent of a small European country, militarily and economically. And then there's Japan whom they've always been aggressive towards, the fact their education system seems even extremely insular (my friends went to Eastern China once where the Chinese wanted to touch them so they could touch a "white devil"), the fact they probably resent the fact Britain took their capital city from them...

As China slowly grows and overtakes the US what do you think will happen? How will the world look?

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

China's century long plan of global domination hence the China Towns in every major city in the world. I voiced this before, every China Town have underground bases. With these underground bases immediately crippling these major cities all at the same time, China will dominate the world with one strike.

Of course I don't have a source. But wouldn't it be impressive for China if they pull this off?


On a more serious note, currently China has the biggest Army and Air Force in the world. Its Navy is quickly passing Japanese and American Naval technologies and the rest of its armed forces are becoming technologically at par with the US and the world.

Taking note that a lot of China's neighboring countries are anti-American and its never ending hostility with Japan only makes this motivation more sensible - an economic colonization, a belt, of the east and southeast Asian countries, exactly like what Japan did during WW2. And with US forces and the rest of the world concentrated on the middle east, maybe the best time for China to strike is now.

Not good.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

Apparently China has been trying to acquire American military technology for a while. But thing went a little awry not long ago.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

I like the fact that within a couple of years the satelite blanket that covers our earth can be removed by the touch of one of thousands of buttons.

And I expect that this will increase the odds for war. However, when will war destroy us all?

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

This is a huge assumption to make with only the support of events from the 1950s and 1960s.

I'm not an expert on military matter but this is absolute rubbish. China has no real blue water navy so how can you can say that they're quickly passing American naval technologies ? China has been thinking over developing a blue water navy (there was an article about just that subject The Economist a few weeks ago) in order to protect their trade routes and project power in the region but they're a long way from starting to build the ships (especially the carriers, although people have been speculating that they're getting ready to build one) let alone use them effectively.

In terms of air force it may be big but it's mostly full of older planes which couldn't even come close to touching the newest generation of American planes. The J10 which they disclosed details of last month is comparable to an F16 Fighting Falcon (1978) or MiG29 (1983) hardly on par with an F22 or F35 are they ? I'm not saying that China isn't upgrading its military or that they're not trying to develop a blue water fleet but to say that currently they're it's anywhere near the level of the US or even of the UK or France in terms of technology is pretty :rolleyes:

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

I see no evidence to support they've changed their tact; the central government portrays Mao as a great man.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

You see no evidence that the Chinese government has changed tact since the early 1970s ?

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

nobody said he was bright.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

Who says China wants to take over the world?

They're just short, and as we know, short people get angry very easily.

That's all there is to it.


I expect for my usual insight into topical matters, thankyou one and all.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

US and Russia already have such technology. So what?

What do you base this on?

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

ok heres a conspiracy theory
- it was an old *weather* satellite - so in theory it was going into a degraded orbit ...

where would it land ?

was it an old spy satelite ?

was it destined to *land* outside china ?

what didnt they want people to know about it ?

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

where is the conspiracy theory there

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

because they didn't really shoot it with a missile, they got THE ALIENS, working in concert with THE MAN to do it for them.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

So basically, your argument is: The Chinese are a bunch of spastics who are going to start WW3, based on the vague idea that they invaded Tibet more than fifty years ago, and were engaged in a petty border dispute with India forty-five years ago.

Makes sense, that does.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

I like that fact that your quote is absolutely paradoxal

or it is Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov or just Lenin. But not Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.

That is what you are refering to with V.I. I asume.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

I heard when the Chinese have killed 120 million of their own babies god will grant them super powers
True story!

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

It depends what he means. Internally (especially economically) obviously China has changed enormously, as have the general strategy engaged by China in international relations. But if you're talking core values (i.e. a broadly authoritarian form of Chinese nationalism) then arguably not a lot has changed.

I've read stuff from Chinese writers who condemn the Russian perestroika on the grounds it was both a reversal of socialism and a massive defat to the Soviet peoples generally. They maintain it was undertaken almost entirely by opportunistic bureaucrats who were interested in looting national treasuries and boosting their own ethno-national tribes. All of which was cynically encouraged and aided by western interests.

The Chinese market transformation (or so the argument runs) is a bit different. There are still of course opportunists enriching themselves in frankly criminal ways, and even claims to socialism have long gone, but Chinese nationalism is still the dominant ideology of most of the elite. As such returning China to world power status and defending some nebulous concept of "a Chinese way" is still the overall goal. While Western companies are still very much involved, politically speaking the Americans are much busier than they were in the 80's and the Western European powers (such as they are) are focussed on internal squabbles, immigration and arresting economic stagnation to fully influence Chinese policy.

I'm not exactly convinced of the above argument, but I think it's fair to say that the Chinese elites are at least mindful of what happened to much of the ex-USSR (culturally, economically and politically). Chinese "socialism" was also much more heavily rooted in Chinese nationalism than Soviet "socialism" was in Russian nationalism (for fairly obvious reasons).

Of course, this is not to say that China is about to try and take over the world. China has for last couple of centuries been one of the least (if not the least) expansionist (or interventionist) of all the major powers (for various reasons). While the Europeans (and their descendents) have invaded a good proportion of the globe the Chinese have done what? Well, there's Tibet - arguably part of China anyway, the claim on Taiwan, and some minor territorial disputes. No matter how dimly we view these actions* they hardly compare in scale and scope to the European carve up of Africa or the more recent American adventures in Indochina. Of course, now they have the means it might be that they suddenly start colonising the rest of the world, but that's not exactly clear.

I'd also add that keeping a stable core of values is not a uniquely Chinese phenomenon. The United States has arguably had the same foriegn policy values since WW2 (some of which come from as far back as the Monroe Doctrine).

* This is not to underplay the importance of these issues, or to say China has / is justified in it's actions, or to minimise the right-to-self-determination of these regions, etc, etc.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

Still locking up Human Rights lawyers, still denying Tienanmen Square, still preventing citizens worshipping the Pope or the Dalai Lama, still conducting education through labour, still selling arms to military dictatorships like the Burmese one, still suppressing minority races... The only positive thing I've seen is their entry into the UN, and even there they've continued to block country specific resolutions pertaining Human Rights, notably the one on political prisoners in Burma.

Admittedly, Chinese governmental policy isn't as aggressive as it was under Mao, but again... I see no evidence. If you have some I'd appreciate the information.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

Vladimir Ilyich Lenin is quite accepted, tbfh.
In school this is how he was usually refered to (that, and King Grandpa Lenin, and wise Lenin, and god knows what else... they made him look like omniscient and omnipotent being after death... their (my ?) own substitute for god)

Quite a few never even know (coz they never pay any attn in class) that his real last name is Ulyanov and Lenin was just a surname (wich i forgot how it came to existance :( and ashamed of this fact) )


Topic is quite interesting to me, as my birthdate and first name match his :D, i was very much into researching his historical path (that avaiable in school project :/)

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

typical American School, always sanctifying those Communists. :)

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

I think you mean pseudonym in that last bit. And I think his name was after a river in Siberia.

I always thought Stalin picked a better name though. To call yourself "man of steel" without a sense of irony or laughing everytime you say it takes some doing. Maybe the implication is different in Russian though.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

Why did these communists decide to have made up names instead of the names they were born with? Seems a bit geeky to me.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

Becouse of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okhranka, it was "convienient" to use several different names.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

Oh, well, erm, that makes sense. I initially thought it might have something to do with Lenin and Stalin's late night sessions together:

*Lenin and Stalin are in a darkened room together, supposedly plotting...*

Stalin: I am Stalin, strong and unbending like steel!

Lenin: I am Lenin, fast like a river!

Stalin: My steel beats your puny river every time!

Lenin: No it doesn't, I hit you.

Stalin: You can't hit me, I have Armour Class -1!

Lenin: I do hit you. Look, I rolled a 20, that's a critical hit!

Stalin: What? Oh...... Well, screw you Ulyanov, I'm going home!

Lenin: Dude, that's so not cool, I told you not to use my real name!

Stalin: Whatever!

*Stalin storms off in a huff...*

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

I think we can say that murdering half of the population in the name of the people conclusively proves that Stalin did have senses of both humour and irony. Although Stalin was also a sub-peasant tosser with no taste so perhaps it's not generally surprising that he called himself 'Man of Steel'

Ping.

Re: Predicting the future of international politics: China
 

is your name Ping?